Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

[Bugpowder]

my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter.  the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well, it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny

I tried it your way, 3 times.  I started at 0.015 and added on 15% each time.

The first 2 went pretty quickly, but the 3rd took 20 turns before I won.  Seems like a lot of stress and effort to make a profit of 17 bitcents. 

Ahh, yes....  I only managed to do it for a couple of hours myself.    Profit was around 2BTC, as I recall...

If I just knew how to make a script for it....

Set up a wallet with 5 BTC, let it run for 12hrs, then check to see if you're at 0.  If not, send anything over 5BTC to a diff wallet, restart script....   As long as you didn't stray from that plan (i.e. never bet 'endlessly') it seems to me like it'd take some astronomical odds to not come out ahead....  I suppose you could scale it up if you had more bitcoins initially.  I started out with ~3BTC, which is why my starting bet was so low.

Near the end (was getting bored), I did a bit of a variant where I'd place my initial bet on something like "under 2000" or "under 3000", second bet on "under 4000" or "under 6000", then the rest on "under 8000" as normal.   That way you get something a little more significant if you win in your first few turns.   =p

Dude, don't confuse a lucky streak with a what would on average happen streak.  I played the under 8000 strat.  Won .37BTC first time, lost it all the second time (.65BTC).  Maybe my bankroll wasn't big enough.

[1713958421]

1713958421

[1713958421]

1713958421

[dooglus]

Scripting it is pretty easy.  I think payb.tc posted a basic PHP script for making martingale bets on SatoshiDice in the main SatoshiDice thread.   I'll dig up a link to it later if you like.  It would be pretty trivial to adapt it to play your strategy.

Here's the thread about payb.tc's SatoshiDice bot:

https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=80245

[dooglus]

Results: 2012-Sep-26 10:04pm (up to block 200693)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    21997 |      0 (0.00000) |  21630 |     367 |     192.84 |       0.01 |    32.56 |    192.83 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1797 |      0 (0.00000) |   1723 |      74 |      25.47 |       0.00 |     7.38 |     25.47 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2386 |      0 (0.00000) |   2349 |      37 |      30.21 |       0.02 |     4.22 |     30.19 |   0.093
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2537 |      1 (0.00040) |   2492 |      44 |      53.81 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     45.75 |  14.991
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2569 |      1 (0.00039) |   2532 |      36 |      95.91 |       4.26 |     7.40 |     91.65 |   4.443
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5518 |      3 (0.00054) |   5503 |      12 |     381.23 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     77.90 |  79.564
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7916 |      8 (0.00101) |   7886 |      22 |     647.01 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    522.61 |  19.226
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10056 |     19 (0.00190) |   9981 |      56 |    1598.67 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    324.03 |  79.731
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     9924 |     43 (0.00434) |   9867 |      14 |    1288.14 |    1302.34 |    13.11 |    -14.20 | 101.103
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15481 |    118 (0.00763) |  15354 |       9 |    2661.23 |    2022.33 |     9.35 |    638.90 |  75.992
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    30566 |    453 (0.01483) |  30101 |      12 |    8470.30 |    7701.57 |     1.80 |    768.73 |  90.924
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15145 |    347 (0.02292) |  14792 |       6 |    4704.47 |    4858.97 |    15.00 |   -154.50 | 103.284
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22779 |    704 (0.03091) |  22071 |       4 |    5486.63 |    4647.48 |     9.24 |    839.15 |  84.706
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15352 |    709 (0.04621) |  14635 |       8 |    6796.37 |    8066.89 |    24.99 |  -1270.51 | 118.694
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    15918 |    987 (0.06202) |  14927 |       4 |    4648.00 |    4126.54 |    31.20 |    521.46 |  88.781
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    21190 |   1979 (0.09347) |  19193 |      18 |   10118.08 |   10075.58 |     7.01 |     42.50 |  99.580
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    84817 |  10436 (0.12307) |  74358 |      23 |   10364.85 |    8947.55 |     0.00 |   1417.29 |  86.326
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    21163 |   3969 (0.18766) |  17181 |      13 |    8357.15 |    8611.34 |    14.50 |   -254.19 | 103.042
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    84241 |  20496 (0.24337) |  63722 |      23 |   50389.15 |   49274.62 |   347.79 |   1114.53 |  97.788
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    61101 |  22435 (0.36746) |  38620 |      46 |   30097.48 |   29319.69 |   212.64 |    777.79 |  97.416
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   536184 | 261463 (0.48803) | 274284 |     437 |  320595.71 |  319262.12 |  2173.41 |   1333.59 |  99.584
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   195906 |  97662 (0.49898) |  98061 |     183 |  191067.27 |  188814.77 |  1295.22 |   2252.50 |  98.821
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   151590 | 111497 (0.73589) |  40016 |      77 |  154152.63 |  151951.18 |   467.98 |   2201.44 |  98.572
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    12595 |  10012 (0.79536) |   2576 |       7 |   21731.73 |   21443.36 |   400.00 |    288.36 |  98.673
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    11751 |  10046 (0.85644) |   1684 |      21 |   12999.13 |   12844.27 |   400.00 |    154.86 |  98.809
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5692 |   5205 (0.91557) |    480 |       7 |   10299.80 |   10200.01 |     0.00 |     99.79 |  99.031
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7635 |   7345 (0.97986) |    151 |     139 |   16413.21 |   16135.89 |   239.21 |    277.32 |  98.310
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1328049 | 542836           | 783723 |    1490 |  331606.23 |  322485.68 |   147.61 |   9120.54 |  97.250
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    45757 |  23102           |  22446 |     209 |  542060.38 |  538835.62 |  5673.35 |   3224.76 |  99.405
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1373806 | 565938           | 806169 |    1699 |  873666.61 |  861321.31 |  5820.96 |  12345.30 |  98.587
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      12345.30604150 BTC (1.413%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         692.07885000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       11653.22719150 BTC (1.334%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4563338  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2546392  (55.8%)
Blockchain MB:  1892.9  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1040.8  (55.0%)

[Herbert]

Awesome stats, checking this thread regularly :-)
One suggestion: Could you add the number of bets to the graph? So one could see if the overall usage of the site increases/decreases and how the profit relates to the general usage?

[dooglus]

Awesome stats, checking this thread regularly :-)
One suggestion: Could you add the number of bets to the graph? So one could see if the overall usage of the site increases/decreases and how the profit relates to the general usage?

The dotted lines show 1% and 1.5% of total amount bet so far (minus fees paid), so they indicate the amount that has been bet.  You'll notice the dotted line is steepest during the volatile period just after 08/09 for instance - lots of bet volume during that time.  Is that what you're looking for?

[zvs]

Scripting it is pretty easy.  I think payb.tc posted a basic PHP script for making martingale bets on SatoshiDice in the main SatoshiDice thread.   I'll dig up a link to it later if you like.  It would be pretty trivial to adapt it to play your strategy.

Here's the thread about payb.tc's SatoshiDice bot:

https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=80245

Thanks.  Didn't even realize there was a script posted on here.

I think I'll give it a try w/ 5 BTC... and hopefully after I bust that 5 BTC, I won't play anymore.  =p

[flatfly]

Scripting it is pretty easy.  I think payb.tc posted a basic PHP script for making martingale bets on SatoshiDice in the main SatoshiDice thread.   I'll dig up a link to it later if you like.  It would be pretty trivial to adapt it to play your strategy.

Here's the thread about payb.tc's SatoshiDice bot:

https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=80245

Thanks.  Didn't even realize there was a script posted on here.

I think I'll give it a try w/ 5 BTC... and hopefully after I bust that 5 BTC, I won't play anymore.  =p

Actually the problems start if you don't bust...

[dooglus]

Results: 2012-Sep-27 12:25pm (up to block 200794)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    22038 |      0 (0.00000) |  21668 |     370 |     193.09 |       0.01 |    32.86 |    193.07 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1800 |      0 (0.00000) |   1726 |      74 |      25.48 |       0.00 |     7.38 |     25.47 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2391 |      0 (0.00000) |   2353 |      38 |      30.22 |       0.02 |     4.42 |     30.19 |   0.093
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2541 |      1 (0.00040) |   2496 |      44 |      53.82 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     45.75 |  14.990
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2569 |      1 (0.00039) |   2532 |      36 |      95.91 |       4.26 |     7.40 |     91.65 |   4.443
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5521 |      3 (0.00054) |   5506 |      12 |     381.27 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     77.94 |  79.556
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7918 |      8 (0.00101) |   7888 |      22 |     647.01 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    522.62 |  19.226
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10060 |     19 (0.00190) |   9985 |      56 |    1598.70 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    324.05 |  79.730
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     9924 |     43 (0.00434) |   9867 |      14 |    1288.14 |    1302.34 |    13.11 |    -14.20 | 101.103
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15604 |    118 (0.00757) |  15476 |      10 |    2662.04 |    2022.33 |     9.35 |    639.71 |  75.969
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    30943 |    460 (0.01487) |  30471 |      12 |    8474.45 |    7706.04 |     1.80 |    768.40 |  90.933
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15147 |    347 (0.02292) |  14794 |       6 |    4704.47 |    4858.97 |    15.00 |   -154.50 | 103.284
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22794 |    705 (0.03093) |  22085 |       4 |    5487.25 |    4647.79 |     9.24 |    839.45 |  84.702
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15377 |    709 (0.04613) |  14660 |       8 |    6796.45 |    8066.89 |    24.99 |  -1270.43 | 118.693
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    15926 |    988 (0.06205) |  14934 |       4 |    4649.01 |    4128.14 |    31.20 |    520.86 |  88.796
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    21219 |   1981 (0.09344) |  19220 |      18 |   10121.29 |   10076.76 |     7.01 |     44.52 |  99.560
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    85331 |  10496 (0.12304) |  74812 |      23 |   10374.07 |    8954.39 |     0.00 |   1419.68 |  86.315
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    21286 |   3985 (0.18733) |  17288 |      13 |    8364.71 |    8623.19 |    14.50 |   -258.48 | 103.090
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    84576 |  20576 (0.24335) |  63977 |      23 |   50418.10 |   49297.15 |   347.79 |   1120.94 |  97.777
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    61209 |  22476 (0.36748) |  38687 |      46 |   30105.05 |   29324.00 |   212.64 |    781.04 |  97.406
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   537531 | 262118 (0.48803) | 274976 |     437 |  321251.95 |  319798.06 |  2173.41 |   1453.88 |  99.547
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   196046 |  97735 (0.49900) |  98128 |     183 |  191158.30 |  188928.43 |  1295.22 |   2229.87 |  98.833
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   152095 | 111893 (0.73605) |  40125 |      77 |  154214.79 |  152004.09 |   467.98 |   2210.70 |  98.566
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    12638 |  10047 (0.79542) |   2584 |       7 |   21750.38 |   21465.15 |   400.00 |    285.23 |  98.689
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    12026 |  10285 (0.85673) |   1720 |      21 |   13095.86 |   12935.38 |   400.00 |    160.48 |  98.775
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5705 |   5218 (0.91576) |    480 |       7 |   10572.43 |   10492.00 |     0.00 |     80.42 |  99.239
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7636 |   7346 (0.97986) |    151 |     139 |   16413.21 |   16135.89 |   239.21 |    277.32 |  98.310
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1332042 | 544428           | 786119 |    1495 |  332102.85 |  322931.98 |   148.11 |   9170.87 |  97.239
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    45809 |  23130           |  22470 |     209 |  542824.71 |  539549.84 |  5673.35 |   3274.86 |  99.397
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1377851 | 567558           | 808589 |    1704 |  874927.56 |  862481.83 |  5821.47 |  12445.73 |  98.578
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      12445.73642941 BTC (1.422%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         694.10675000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       11751.62967941 BTC (1.343%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4580858  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2554448  (55.8%)
Blockchain MB:  1900.1  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1043.8  (54.9%)

[phelix]

thanks for the statistics!

what about an estimate for the next dividend, maybe with roi?

[Bugpowder]

Dividend = (Oct 1  Profit after fees - Sept 1 Profit after fees) / 10

[dooglus]

Dividend = (Oct 1  Profit after fees - Sept 1 Profit after fees) / 10

What happens if that number is negative?

[jamesg]

Dividend = (Oct 1  Profit after fees - Sept 1 Profit after fees) / 10

What happens if that number is negative?

Then no cookies for you! 

[dooglus]

Dividend = (Oct 1  Profit after fees - Sept 1 Profit after fees) / 10

What happens if that number is negative?

Then no cookies for you! 

What if the profits are:
  10k at the end of September
  9k at the end of November
  10k at the end of December

There's no dividend at the end of November, but what about at the end of December?  Is that counted as a 1k profit on the month?  Because that 1k profit was already paid out at the end of September - the site hasn't really made a new profit, it's just recovered its November loss.

[dooglus]

Results: 2012-Sep-28 11:29am (up to block 200948)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    22558 |      0 (0.00000) |  22188 |     370 |     194.16 |       0.01 |    32.86 |    194.14 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1810 |      0 (0.00000) |   1736 |      74 |      25.49 |       0.00 |     7.38 |     25.49 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2402 |      0 (0.00000) |   2364 |      38 |      30.23 |       0.02 |     4.42 |     30.21 |   0.093
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2554 |      1 (0.00040) |   2509 |      44 |      53.86 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     45.79 |  14.978
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2857 |      1 (0.00035) |   2820 |      36 |      96.99 |       4.26 |     7.40 |     92.73 |   4.395
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5534 |      3 (0.00054) |   5519 |      12 |     381.33 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     78.00 |  79.544
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7961 |      8 (0.00101) |   7931 |      22 |     647.18 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    522.79 |  19.221
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10068 |     19 (0.00190) |   9993 |      56 |    1598.71 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    324.06 |  79.730
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    10359 |     45 (0.00435) |  10300 |      14 |    1294.50 |    1302.84 |    13.11 |     -8.33 | 100.644
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15679 |    118 (0.00753) |  15551 |      10 |    2664.96 |    2022.33 |     9.35 |    642.63 |  75.886
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    31209 |    466 (0.01494) |  30731 |      12 |    8481.09 |    7710.14 |     1.80 |    770.95 |  90.910
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15251 |    350 (0.02296) |  14895 |       6 |    4704.75 |    4859.10 |    15.00 |   -154.34 | 103.281
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22899 |    709 (0.03097) |  22186 |       4 |    5487.82 |    4647.95 |     9.24 |    839.86 |  84.696
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15513 |    717 (0.04624) |  14788 |       8 |    6797.73 |    8069.63 |    24.99 |  -1271.90 | 118.711
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    16111 |    999 (0.06202) |  15108 |       4 |    4661.20 |    4140.96 |    31.20 |    520.23 |  88.839
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    21407 |   1997 (0.09337) |  19392 |      18 |   10135.33 |   10095.81 |     7.01 |     39.51 |  99.610
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    85608 |  10534 (0.12308) |  75051 |      23 |   10388.15 |    8966.86 |     0.00 |   1421.28 |  86.318
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    21655 |   4042 (0.18677) |  17600 |      13 |    8389.16 |    8654.13 |    14.50 |   -264.97 | 103.159
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    85058 |  20713 (0.24358) |  64322 |      23 |   50491.88 |   49401.85 |   347.79 |   1090.03 |  97.841
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    61398 |  22542 (0.36742) |  38810 |      46 |   30129.31 |   29352.68 |   212.64 |    776.63 |  97.422
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   538762 | 262711 (0.48802) | 275614 |     437 |  321686.95 |  320208.09 |  2173.41 |   1478.86 |  99.540
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   196746 |  98079 (0.49897) |  98484 |     183 |  191547.53 |  189298.35 |  1295.22 |   2249.18 |  98.826
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   152777 | 112406 (0.73612) |  40294 |      77 |  154324.68 |  152089.81 |   467.98 |   2234.87 |  98.552
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    12717 |  10110 (0.79544) |   2600 |       7 |   21765.38 |   21480.43 |   400.00 |    284.95 |  98.691
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    12204 |  10431 (0.85619) |   1752 |      21 |   13772.95 |   13691.69 |   400.00 |     81.25 |  99.410
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5824 |   5328 (0.91594) |    489 |       7 |   10657.64 |   10577.38 |     0.00 |     80.26 |  99.247
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7658 |   7365 (0.97991) |    151 |     142 |   16418.43 |   16141.11 |   239.21 |    277.31 |  98.311
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1338714 | 546534           | 790682 |    1498 |  333015.89 |  323808.07 |   148.11 |   9207.81 |  97.235
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    45865 |  23160           |  22496 |     209 |  543811.65 |  540617.92 |  5673.35 |   3193.73 |  99.413
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1384579 | 569694           | 813178 |    1707 |  876827.54 |  864425.99 |  5821.47 |  12401.54 |  98.586
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      12401.54718501 BTC (1.414%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         697.48002500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       11704.06716001 BTC (1.335%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4610006  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2566833  (55.7%)
Blockchain MB:  1912.7  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1048.6  (54.8%)

[jamesg]

What if the profits are:
  10k at the end of September
  9k at the end of November
  10k at the end of December

There's no dividend at the end of November, but what about at the end of December?  Is that counted as a 1k profit on the month?  Because that 1k profit was already paid out at the end of September - the site hasn't really made a new profit, it's just recovered its November loss.

Per the prospectus

It is also important to note that net profit is calculated as a running total. Thus if Month A has a loss of 500 BTC, and Month B has a profit of 1200 BTC, the net profit for Month B will be 700 BTC and this is the amount which would be paid to shareholders as dividends

[dooglus]

What if the profits are:
  10k at the end of September
  9k at the end of November
  10k at the end of December

There's no dividend at the end of November, but what about at the end of December?  Is that counted as a 1k profit on the month?  Because that 1k profit was already paid out at the end of September - the site hasn't really made a new profit, it's just recovered its November loss.

Per the prospectus

It is also important to note that net profit is calculated as a running total. Thus if Month A has a loss of 500 BTC, and Month B has a profit of 1200 BTC, the net profit for Month B will be 700 BTC and this is the amount which would be paid to shareholders as dividends

OK thanks.  It sounds like the highest ever end-of-month profit is used to calculate this month's new profit, which makes sense.

As an example, if the price of bitcoin was the number being used instead of SD profits then there would have been no new dividends paid until the price goes above last summer's end-of-month high of around $16 ( http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igDailyzczsg2011-05-25zeg2011-07-05ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv )

[Fizzgig]

In the future the price of the stock may develop a correlation, falling when one month is exceedingly unprofitable and recovering when profits are in a position to start paying dividends again.

[Bugpowder]

The dividend is the profit for the current month minus any carried over losses from the previous month(s).  There are no negative dividends, an I think a zero payout month is pretty statistically unlikely.

What if the profits are:
  10k at the end of September
  9k at the end of November
  10k at the end of December

There's no dividend at the end of November, but what about at the end of December?  Is that counted as a 1k profit on the month?  Because that 1k profit was already paid out at the end of September - the site hasn't really made a new profit, it's just recovered its November loss.

Per the prospectus

It is also important to note that net profit is calculated as a running total. Thus if Month A has a loss of 500 BTC, and Month B has a profit of 1200 BTC, the net profit for Month B will be 700 BTC and this is the amount which would be paid to shareholders as dividends

OK thanks.  It sounds like the highest ever end-of-month profit is used to calculate this month's new profit, which makes sense.

As an example, if the price of bitcoin was the number being used instead of SD profits then there would have been no new dividends paid until the price goes above last summer's end-of-month high of around $16 ( http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igDailyzczsg2011-05-25zeg2011-07-05ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv )

[dooglus]

The dividend is the profit for the current month minus any carried over losses from the previous month(s).  There are no negative dividends, an I think a zero payout month is pretty statistically unlikely.

If we look at the historical data, June would have been a zero payout month, and July only just managed to recover June's losses too.  I don't know if these were freak occurrences, but so far 1 (and almost 2) out of 4 months would have been zero payout months:

[dooglus]

Results: 2012-Sep-29 08:01am (up to block 201090)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    22681 |      0 (0.00000) |  22311 |     370 |     194.58 |       0.01 |    32.86 |    194.56 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1815 |      0 (0.00000) |   1741 |      74 |      25.50 |       0.00 |     7.38 |     25.50 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2406 |      0 (0.00000) |   2368 |      38 |      30.25 |       0.02 |     4.42 |     30.22 |   0.093
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2560 |      1 (0.00040) |   2515 |      44 |      53.99 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     45.92 |  14.943
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     4128 |      1 (0.00024) |   4091 |      36 |     100.12 |       4.26 |     7.40 |     95.85 |   4.261
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5552 |      3 (0.00054) |   5537 |      12 |     381.76 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     78.43 |  79.454
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7968 |      8 (0.00101) |   7938 |      22 |     647.30 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    522.91 |  19.217
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10075 |     19 (0.00190) |  10000 |      56 |    1598.75 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    324.10 |  79.728
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    10369 |     45 (0.00435) |  10310 |      14 |    1294.71 |    1302.84 |    13.11 |     -8.13 | 100.628
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15714 |    118 (0.00751) |  15586 |      10 |    2672.08 |    2022.36 |     9.35 |    649.72 |  75.685
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    31303 |    469 (0.01499) |  30822 |      12 |    8487.05 |    7724.85 |     1.80 |    762.19 |  91.019
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15269 |    351 (0.02300) |  14912 |       6 |    4705.37 |    4860.38 |    15.00 |   -155.00 | 103.294
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22910 |    709 (0.03095) |  22197 |       4 |    5488.08 |    4647.95 |     9.24 |    840.13 |  84.692
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15535 |    717 (0.04618) |  14810 |       8 |    6798.20 |    8069.63 |    24.99 |  -1271.43 | 118.703
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    16124 |    999 (0.06197) |  15121 |       4 |    4662.08 |    4140.96 |    31.20 |    521.11 |  88.822
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    21442 |   2000 (0.09335) |  19424 |      18 |   10142.60 |   10097.55 |     7.01 |     45.04 |  99.556
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    85699 |  10540 (0.12302) |  75136 |      23 |   10407.60 |    8979.93 |     0.00 |   1427.67 |  86.282
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    21744 |   4054 (0.18655) |  17677 |      13 |    8404.48 |    8660.42 |    14.50 |   -255.93 | 103.045
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    85283 |  20755 (0.24343) |  64505 |      23 |   50689.99 |   49486.92 |   347.79 |   1203.07 |  97.627
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    61584 |  22627 (0.36770) |  38910 |      47 |   30148.80 |   29383.09 |   212.64 |    765.70 |  97.460
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   539875 | 263242 (0.48800) | 276192 |     441 |  322148.48 |  320677.76 |  2173.41 |   1470.72 |  99.543
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   197097 |  98242 (0.49891) |  98670 |     185 |  191908.33 |  189536.22 |  1295.22 |   2372.11 |  98.764
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   153541 | 112973 (0.73615) |  40491 |      77 |  154490.11 |  152248.60 |   467.98 |   2241.50 |  98.549
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    12790 |  10165 (0.79520) |   2618 |       7 |   21781.84 |   21498.93 |   400.00 |    282.91 |  98.701
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    12256 |  10477 (0.85631) |   1758 |      21 |   13790.16 |   13709.83 |   400.00 |     80.33 |  99.417
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5855 |   5355 (0.91570) |    493 |       7 |   10796.05 |   10722.51 |     0.00 |     73.53 |  99.319
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7676 |   7383 (0.97996) |    151 |     142 |   16433.78 |   16156.53 |   239.21 |    277.25 |  98.313
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1343327 | 548066           | 793756 |    1505 |  333708.74 |  324427.83 |   148.11 |   9280.90 |  97.219
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    45924 |  23187           |  22528 |     209 |  544573.43 |  541214.26 |  5673.35 |   3359.17 |  99.383
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1389251 | 571253           | 816284 |    1714 |  878282.18 |  865642.10 |  5821.47 |  12640.07 |  98.561
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      12640.07996177 BTC (1.439%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         699.82265000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       11940.25731177 BTC (1.360%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4633008  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2575926  (55.6%)
Blockchain MB:  1922.8  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1052.2  (54.7%)