Bugpowder
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September 25, 2012, 09:53:53 PM |
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my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter. the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well, it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny
I tried it your way, 3 times. I started at 0.015 and added on 15% each time. The first 2 went pretty quickly, but the 3rd took 20 turns before I won. Seems like a lot of stress and effort to make a profit of 17 bitcents. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Ahh, yes.... I only managed to do it for a couple of hours myself. Profit was around 2BTC, as I recall... If I just knew how to make a script for it.... Set up a wallet with 5 BTC, let it run for 12hrs, then check to see if you're at 0. If not, send anything over 5BTC to a diff wallet, restart script.... As long as you didn't stray from that plan (i.e. never bet 'endlessly') it seems to me like it'd take some astronomical odds to not come out ahead.... I suppose you could scale it up if you had more bitcoins initially. I started out with ~3BTC, which is why my starting bet was so low. Near the end (was getting bored), I did a bit of a variant where I'd place my initial bet on something like "under 2000" or "under 3000", second bet on "under 4000" or "under 6000", then the rest on "under 8000" as normal. That way you get something a little more significant if you win in your first few turns. =p Dude, don't confuse a lucky streak with a what would on average happen streak. I played the under 8000 strat. Won .37BTC first time, lost it all the second time (.65BTC). Maybe my bankroll wasn't big enough.
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dooglus
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September 25, 2012, 11:50:24 PM |
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Scripting it is pretty easy. I think payb.tc posted a basic PHP script for making martingale bets on SatoshiDice in the main SatoshiDice thread. I'll dig up a link to it later if you like. It would be pretty trivial to adapt it to play your strategy.
Here's the thread about payb.tc's SatoshiDice bot: https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=80245
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dooglus
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September 27, 2012, 05:06:57 AM |
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Results: 2012-Sep-26 10:04pm (up to block 200693)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 21997 | 0 (0.00000) | 21630 | 367 | 192.84 | 0.01 | 32.56 | 192.83 | 0.010 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1797 | 0 (0.00000) | 1723 | 74 | 25.47 | 0.00 | 7.38 | 25.47 | 0.007 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2386 | 0 (0.00000) | 2349 | 37 | 30.21 | 0.02 | 4.22 | 30.19 | 0.093 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2537 | 1 (0.00040) | 2492 | 44 | 53.81 | 8.06 | 5.65 | 45.75 | 14.991 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2569 | 1 (0.00039) | 2532 | 36 | 95.91 | 4.26 | 7.40 | 91.65 | 4.443 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5518 | 3 (0.00054) | 5503 | 12 | 381.23 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 77.90 | 79.564 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7916 | 8 (0.00101) | 7886 | 22 | 647.01 | 124.39 | 55.64 | 522.61 | 19.226 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10056 | 19 (0.00190) | 9981 | 56 | 1598.67 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 324.03 | 79.731 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9924 | 43 (0.00434) | 9867 | 14 | 1288.14 | 1302.34 | 13.11 | -14.20 | 101.103 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 15481 | 118 (0.00763) | 15354 | 9 | 2661.23 | 2022.33 | 9.35 | 638.90 | 75.992 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 30566 | 453 (0.01483) | 30101 | 12 | 8470.30 | 7701.57 | 1.80 | 768.73 | 90.924 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 15145 | 347 (0.02292) | 14792 | 6 | 4704.47 | 4858.97 | 15.00 | -154.50 | 103.284 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22779 | 704 (0.03091) | 22071 | 4 | 5486.63 | 4647.48 | 9.24 | 839.15 | 84.706 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 15352 | 709 (0.04621) | 14635 | 8 | 6796.37 | 8066.89 | 24.99 | -1270.51 | 118.694 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15918 | 987 (0.06202) | 14927 | 4 | 4648.00 | 4126.54 | 31.20 | 521.46 | 88.781 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 21190 | 1979 (0.09347) | 19193 | 18 | 10118.08 | 10075.58 | 7.01 | 42.50 | 99.580 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 84817 | 10436 (0.12307) | 74358 | 23 | 10364.85 | 8947.55 | 0.00 | 1417.29 | 86.326 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 21163 | 3969 (0.18766) | 17181 | 13 | 8357.15 | 8611.34 | 14.50 | -254.19 | 103.042 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 84241 | 20496 (0.24337) | 63722 | 23 | 50389.15 | 49274.62 | 347.79 | 1114.53 | 97.788 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 61101 | 22435 (0.36746) | 38620 | 46 | 30097.48 | 29319.69 | 212.64 | 777.79 | 97.416 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 536184 | 261463 (0.48803) | 274284 | 437 | 320595.71 | 319262.12 | 2173.41 | 1333.59 | 99.584 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 195906 | 97662 (0.49898) | 98061 | 183 | 191067.27 | 188814.77 | 1295.22 | 2252.50 | 98.821 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 151590 | 111497 (0.73589) | 40016 | 77 | 154152.63 | 151951.18 | 467.98 | 2201.44 | 98.572 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 12595 | 10012 (0.79536) | 2576 | 7 | 21731.73 | 21443.36 | 400.00 | 288.36 | 98.673 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 11751 | 10046 (0.85644) | 1684 | 21 | 12999.13 | 12844.27 | 400.00 | 154.86 | 98.809 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 5692 | 5205 (0.91557) | 480 | 7 | 10299.80 | 10200.01 | 0.00 | 99.79 | 99.031 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7635 | 7345 (0.97986) | 151 | 139 | 16413.21 | 16135.89 | 239.21 | 277.32 | 98.310 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1328049 | 542836 | 783723 | 1490 | 331606.23 | 322485.68 | 147.61 | 9120.54 | 97.250 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 45757 | 23102 | 22446 | 209 | 542060.38 | 538835.62 | 5673.35 | 3224.76 | 99.405 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1373806 | 565938 | 806169 | 1699 | 873666.61 | 861321.31 | 5820.96 | 12345.30 | 98.587 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 12345.30604150 BTC (1.413%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 692.07885000 BTC SD Profit after fees: 11653.22719150 BTC (1.334%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 4563338 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2546392 (55.8%) Blockchain MB: 1892.9 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1040.8 (55.0%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FF96Fw.png&t=665&c=gzBnwgkTpkzmQQ)
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Herbert
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September 27, 2012, 07:24:51 AM |
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Awesome stats, checking this thread regularly :-) One suggestion: Could you add the number of bets to the graph? So one could see if the overall usage of the site increases/decreases and how the profit relates to the general usage?
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dooglus
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September 27, 2012, 07:57:59 AM |
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Awesome stats, checking this thread regularly :-) One suggestion: Could you add the number of bets to the graph? So one could see if the overall usage of the site increases/decreases and how the profit relates to the general usage?
The dotted lines show 1% and 1.5% of total amount bet so far (minus fees paid), so they indicate the amount that has been bet. You'll notice the dotted line is steepest during the volatile period just after 08/09 for instance - lots of bet volume during that time. Is that what you're looking for?
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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zvs
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https://web.archive.org/web/*/nogleg.com
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September 27, 2012, 04:09:09 PM |
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Scripting it is pretty easy. I think payb.tc posted a basic PHP script for making martingale bets on SatoshiDice in the main SatoshiDice thread. I'll dig up a link to it later if you like. It would be pretty trivial to adapt it to play your strategy.
Here's the thread about payb.tc's SatoshiDice bot: https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=80245Thanks. Didn't even realize there was a script posted on here. I think I'll give it a try w/ 5 BTC... and hopefully after I bust that 5 BTC, I won't play anymore. =p
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flatfly
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760930
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September 27, 2012, 04:21:34 PM |
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Scripting it is pretty easy. I think payb.tc posted a basic PHP script for making martingale bets on SatoshiDice in the main SatoshiDice thread. I'll dig up a link to it later if you like. It would be pretty trivial to adapt it to play your strategy.
Here's the thread about payb.tc's SatoshiDice bot: https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=80245Thanks. Didn't even realize there was a script posted on here. I think I'll give it a try w/ 5 BTC... and hopefully after I bust that 5 BTC, I won't play anymore. =p Actually the problems start if you don't bust... ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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dooglus
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September 27, 2012, 07:39:47 PM |
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Results: 2012-Sep-27 12:25pm (up to block 200794)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 22038 | 0 (0.00000) | 21668 | 370 | 193.09 | 0.01 | 32.86 | 193.07 | 0.010 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1800 | 0 (0.00000) | 1726 | 74 | 25.48 | 0.00 | 7.38 | 25.47 | 0.007 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2391 | 0 (0.00000) | 2353 | 38 | 30.22 | 0.02 | 4.42 | 30.19 | 0.093 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2541 | 1 (0.00040) | 2496 | 44 | 53.82 | 8.06 | 5.65 | 45.75 | 14.990 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2569 | 1 (0.00039) | 2532 | 36 | 95.91 | 4.26 | 7.40 | 91.65 | 4.443 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5521 | 3 (0.00054) | 5506 | 12 | 381.27 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 77.94 | 79.556 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7918 | 8 (0.00101) | 7888 | 22 | 647.01 | 124.39 | 55.64 | 522.62 | 19.226 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10060 | 19 (0.00190) | 9985 | 56 | 1598.70 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 324.05 | 79.730 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9924 | 43 (0.00434) | 9867 | 14 | 1288.14 | 1302.34 | 13.11 | -14.20 | 101.103 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 15604 | 118 (0.00757) | 15476 | 10 | 2662.04 | 2022.33 | 9.35 | 639.71 | 75.969 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 30943 | 460 (0.01487) | 30471 | 12 | 8474.45 | 7706.04 | 1.80 | 768.40 | 90.933 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 15147 | 347 (0.02292) | 14794 | 6 | 4704.47 | 4858.97 | 15.00 | -154.50 | 103.284 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22794 | 705 (0.03093) | 22085 | 4 | 5487.25 | 4647.79 | 9.24 | 839.45 | 84.702 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 15377 | 709 (0.04613) | 14660 | 8 | 6796.45 | 8066.89 | 24.99 | -1270.43 | 118.693 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15926 | 988 (0.06205) | 14934 | 4 | 4649.01 | 4128.14 | 31.20 | 520.86 | 88.796 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 21219 | 1981 (0.09344) | 19220 | 18 | 10121.29 | 10076.76 | 7.01 | 44.52 | 99.560 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 85331 | 10496 (0.12304) | 74812 | 23 | 10374.07 | 8954.39 | 0.00 | 1419.68 | 86.315 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 21286 | 3985 (0.18733) | 17288 | 13 | 8364.71 | 8623.19 | 14.50 | -258.48 | 103.090 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 84576 | 20576 (0.24335) | 63977 | 23 | 50418.10 | 49297.15 | 347.79 | 1120.94 | 97.777 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 61209 | 22476 (0.36748) | 38687 | 46 | 30105.05 | 29324.00 | 212.64 | 781.04 | 97.406 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 537531 | 262118 (0.48803) | 274976 | 437 | 321251.95 | 319798.06 | 2173.41 | 1453.88 | 99.547 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 196046 | 97735 (0.49900) | 98128 | 183 | 191158.30 | 188928.43 | 1295.22 | 2229.87 | 98.833 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 152095 | 111893 (0.73605) | 40125 | 77 | 154214.79 | 152004.09 | 467.98 | 2210.70 | 98.566 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 12638 | 10047 (0.79542) | 2584 | 7 | 21750.38 | 21465.15 | 400.00 | 285.23 | 98.689 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 12026 | 10285 (0.85673) | 1720 | 21 | 13095.86 | 12935.38 | 400.00 | 160.48 | 98.775 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 5705 | 5218 (0.91576) | 480 | 7 | 10572.43 | 10492.00 | 0.00 | 80.42 | 99.239 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7636 | 7346 (0.97986) | 151 | 139 | 16413.21 | 16135.89 | 239.21 | 277.32 | 98.310 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1332042 | 544428 | 786119 | 1495 | 332102.85 | 322931.98 | 148.11 | 9170.87 | 97.239 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 45809 | 23130 | 22470 | 209 | 542824.71 | 539549.84 | 5673.35 | 3274.86 | 99.397 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1377851 | 567558 | 808589 | 1704 | 874927.56 | 862481.83 | 5821.47 | 12445.73 | 98.578 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 12445.73642941 BTC (1.422%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 694.10675000 BTC SD Profit after fees: 11751.62967941 BTC (1.343%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 4580858 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2554448 (55.8%) Blockchain MB: 1900.1 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1043.8 (54.9%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FXoMiY.png&t=665&c=ZNhSLFQFgmWBCw)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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phelix
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September 28, 2012, 06:30:40 AM |
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thanks for the statistics!
what about an estimate for the next dividend, maybe with roi?
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Bugpowder
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September 28, 2012, 11:46:44 AM |
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Dividend = (Oct 1 Profit after fees - Sept 1 Profit after fees) / 10
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dooglus
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September 28, 2012, 06:12:03 PM |
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Dividend = (Oct 1 Profit after fees - Sept 1 Profit after fees) / 10
What happens if that number is negative?
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jamesg
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September 28, 2012, 06:14:42 PM |
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Dividend = (Oct 1 Profit after fees - Sept 1 Profit after fees) / 10
What happens if that number is negative? Then no cookies for you! ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif)
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dooglus
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September 28, 2012, 06:19:40 PM |
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Dividend = (Oct 1 Profit after fees - Sept 1 Profit after fees) / 10
What happens if that number is negative? Then no cookies for you! ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) What if the profits are: 10k at the end of September 9k at the end of November 10k at the end of December There's no dividend at the end of November, but what about at the end of December? Is that counted as a 1k profit on the month? Because that 1k profit was already paid out at the end of September - the site hasn't really made a new profit, it's just recovered its November loss.
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dooglus
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September 28, 2012, 06:31:10 PM |
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Results: 2012-Sep-28 11:29am (up to block 200948)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 22558 | 0 (0.00000) | 22188 | 370 | 194.16 | 0.01 | 32.86 | 194.14 | 0.010 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1810 | 0 (0.00000) | 1736 | 74 | 25.49 | 0.00 | 7.38 | 25.49 | 0.007 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2402 | 0 (0.00000) | 2364 | 38 | 30.23 | 0.02 | 4.42 | 30.21 | 0.093 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2554 | 1 (0.00040) | 2509 | 44 | 53.86 | 8.06 | 5.65 | 45.79 | 14.978 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2857 | 1 (0.00035) | 2820 | 36 | 96.99 | 4.26 | 7.40 | 92.73 | 4.395 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5534 | 3 (0.00054) | 5519 | 12 | 381.33 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 78.00 | 79.544 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7961 | 8 (0.00101) | 7931 | 22 | 647.18 | 124.39 | 55.64 | 522.79 | 19.221 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10068 | 19 (0.00190) | 9993 | 56 | 1598.71 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 324.06 | 79.730 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 10359 | 45 (0.00435) | 10300 | 14 | 1294.50 | 1302.84 | 13.11 | -8.33 | 100.644 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 15679 | 118 (0.00753) | 15551 | 10 | 2664.96 | 2022.33 | 9.35 | 642.63 | 75.886 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 31209 | 466 (0.01494) | 30731 | 12 | 8481.09 | 7710.14 | 1.80 | 770.95 | 90.910 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 15251 | 350 (0.02296) | 14895 | 6 | 4704.75 | 4859.10 | 15.00 | -154.34 | 103.281 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22899 | 709 (0.03097) | 22186 | 4 | 5487.82 | 4647.95 | 9.24 | 839.86 | 84.696 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 15513 | 717 (0.04624) | 14788 | 8 | 6797.73 | 8069.63 | 24.99 | -1271.90 | 118.711 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 16111 | 999 (0.06202) | 15108 | 4 | 4661.20 | 4140.96 | 31.20 | 520.23 | 88.839 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 21407 | 1997 (0.09337) | 19392 | 18 | 10135.33 | 10095.81 | 7.01 | 39.51 | 99.610 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 85608 | 10534 (0.12308) | 75051 | 23 | 10388.15 | 8966.86 | 0.00 | 1421.28 | 86.318 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 21655 | 4042 (0.18677) | 17600 | 13 | 8389.16 | 8654.13 | 14.50 | -264.97 | 103.159 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 85058 | 20713 (0.24358) | 64322 | 23 | 50491.88 | 49401.85 | 347.79 | 1090.03 | 97.841 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 61398 | 22542 (0.36742) | 38810 | 46 | 30129.31 | 29352.68 | 212.64 | 776.63 | 97.422 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 538762 | 262711 (0.48802) | 275614 | 437 | 321686.95 | 320208.09 | 2173.41 | 1478.86 | 99.540 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 196746 | 98079 (0.49897) | 98484 | 183 | 191547.53 | 189298.35 | 1295.22 | 2249.18 | 98.826 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 152777 | 112406 (0.73612) | 40294 | 77 | 154324.68 | 152089.81 | 467.98 | 2234.87 | 98.552 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 12717 | 10110 (0.79544) | 2600 | 7 | 21765.38 | 21480.43 | 400.00 | 284.95 | 98.691 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 12204 | 10431 (0.85619) | 1752 | 21 | 13772.95 | 13691.69 | 400.00 | 81.25 | 99.410 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 5824 | 5328 (0.91594) | 489 | 7 | 10657.64 | 10577.38 | 0.00 | 80.26 | 99.247 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7658 | 7365 (0.97991) | 151 | 142 | 16418.43 | 16141.11 | 239.21 | 277.31 | 98.311 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1338714 | 546534 | 790682 | 1498 | 333015.89 | 323808.07 | 148.11 | 9207.81 | 97.235 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 45865 | 23160 | 22496 | 209 | 543811.65 | 540617.92 | 5673.35 | 3193.73 | 99.413 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1384579 | 569694 | 813178 | 1707 | 876827.54 | 864425.99 | 5821.47 | 12401.54 | 98.586 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 12401.54718501 BTC (1.414%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 697.48002500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 11704.06716001 BTC (1.335%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 4610006 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2566833 (55.7%) Blockchain MB: 1912.7 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1048.6 (54.8%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FKrs4j.png&t=665&c=h7VvQ9fx5VmJkg)
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jamesg
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AKA: gigavps
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 28, 2012, 06:32:42 PM |
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What if the profits are: 10k at the end of September 9k at the end of November 10k at the end of December
There's no dividend at the end of November, but what about at the end of December? Is that counted as a 1k profit on the month? Because that 1k profit was already paid out at the end of September - the site hasn't really made a new profit, it's just recovered its November loss.
Per the prospectusIt is also important to note that net profit is calculated as a running total. Thus if Month A has a loss of 500 BTC, and Month B has a profit of 1200 BTC, the net profit for Month B will be 700 BTC and this is the amount which would be paid to shareholders as dividends
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dooglus
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September 28, 2012, 06:58:39 PM |
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What if the profits are: 10k at the end of September 9k at the end of November 10k at the end of December
There's no dividend at the end of November, but what about at the end of December? Is that counted as a 1k profit on the month? Because that 1k profit was already paid out at the end of September - the site hasn't really made a new profit, it's just recovered its November loss.
Per the prospectusIt is also important to note that net profit is calculated as a running total. Thus if Month A has a loss of 500 BTC, and Month B has a profit of 1200 BTC, the net profit for Month B will be 700 BTC and this is the amount which would be paid to shareholders as dividends
OK thanks. It sounds like the highest ever end-of-month profit is used to calculate this month's new profit, which makes sense. As an example, if the price of bitcoin was the number being used instead of SD profits then there would have been no new dividends paid until the price goes above last summer's end-of-month high of around $16 ( http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igDailyzczsg2011-05-25zeg2011-07-05ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv )
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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Fizzgig
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 28, 2012, 08:15:16 PM |
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In the future the price of the stock may develop a correlation, falling when one month is exceedingly unprofitable and recovering when profits are in a position to start paying dividends again.
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Best Bitcoin supported browser game: Minethings: Dig, Trade, and Fight your way to influence!
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Bugpowder
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 28, 2012, 10:01:33 PM |
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The dividend is the profit for the current month minus any carried over losses from the previous month(s). There are no negative dividends, an I think a zero payout month is pretty statistically unlikely. What if the profits are: 10k at the end of September 9k at the end of November 10k at the end of December
There's no dividend at the end of November, but what about at the end of December? Is that counted as a 1k profit on the month? Because that 1k profit was already paid out at the end of September - the site hasn't really made a new profit, it's just recovered its November loss.
Per the prospectusIt is also important to note that net profit is calculated as a running total. Thus if Month A has a loss of 500 BTC, and Month B has a profit of 1200 BTC, the net profit for Month B will be 700 BTC and this is the amount which would be paid to shareholders as dividends
OK thanks. It sounds like the highest ever end-of-month profit is used to calculate this month's new profit, which makes sense. As an example, if the price of bitcoin was the number being used instead of SD profits then there would have been no new dividends paid until the price goes above last summer's end-of-month high of around $16 ( http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igDailyzczsg2011-05-25zeg2011-07-05ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv )
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dooglus
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 29, 2012, 02:38:50 PM |
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The dividend is the profit for the current month minus any carried over losses from the previous month(s). There are no negative dividends, an I think a zero payout month is pretty statistically unlikely.
If we look at the historical data, June would have been a zero payout month, and July only just managed to recover June's losses too. I don't know if these were freak occurrences, but so far 1 (and almost 2) out of 4 months would have been zero payout months: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FHIwDH.png&t=665&c=jW2TTn1VnsteSg)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
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September 29, 2012, 03:08:16 PM |
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Results: 2012-Sep-29 08:01am (up to block 201090)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 22681 | 0 (0.00000) | 22311 | 370 | 194.58 | 0.01 | 32.86 | 194.56 | 0.010 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1815 | 0 (0.00000) | 1741 | 74 | 25.50 | 0.00 | 7.38 | 25.50 | 0.007 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2406 | 0 (0.00000) | 2368 | 38 | 30.25 | 0.02 | 4.42 | 30.22 | 0.093 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2560 | 1 (0.00040) | 2515 | 44 | 53.99 | 8.06 | 5.65 | 45.92 | 14.943 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 4128 | 1 (0.00024) | 4091 | 36 | 100.12 | 4.26 | 7.40 | 95.85 | 4.261 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5552 | 3 (0.00054) | 5537 | 12 | 381.76 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 78.43 | 79.454 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7968 | 8 (0.00101) | 7938 | 22 | 647.30 | 124.39 | 55.64 | 522.91 | 19.217 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10075 | 19 (0.00190) | 10000 | 56 | 1598.75 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 324.10 | 79.728 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 10369 | 45 (0.00435) | 10310 | 14 | 1294.71 | 1302.84 | 13.11 | -8.13 | 100.628 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 15714 | 118 (0.00751) | 15586 | 10 | 2672.08 | 2022.36 | 9.35 | 649.72 | 75.685 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 31303 | 469 (0.01499) | 30822 | 12 | 8487.05 | 7724.85 | 1.80 | 762.19 | 91.019 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 15269 | 351 (0.02300) | 14912 | 6 | 4705.37 | 4860.38 | 15.00 | -155.00 | 103.294 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22910 | 709 (0.03095) | 22197 | 4 | 5488.08 | 4647.95 | 9.24 | 840.13 | 84.692 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 15535 | 717 (0.04618) | 14810 | 8 | 6798.20 | 8069.63 | 24.99 | -1271.43 | 118.703 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 16124 | 999 (0.06197) | 15121 | 4 | 4662.08 | 4140.96 | 31.20 | 521.11 | 88.822 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 21442 | 2000 (0.09335) | 19424 | 18 | 10142.60 | 10097.55 | 7.01 | 45.04 | 99.556 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 85699 | 10540 (0.12302) | 75136 | 23 | 10407.60 | 8979.93 | 0.00 | 1427.67 | 86.282 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 21744 | 4054 (0.18655) | 17677 | 13 | 8404.48 | 8660.42 | 14.50 | -255.93 | 103.045 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 85283 | 20755 (0.24343) | 64505 | 23 | 50689.99 | 49486.92 | 347.79 | 1203.07 | 97.627 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 61584 | 22627 (0.36770) | 38910 | 47 | 30148.80 | 29383.09 | 212.64 | 765.70 | 97.460 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 539875 | 263242 (0.48800) | 276192 | 441 | 322148.48 | 320677.76 | 2173.41 | 1470.72 | 99.543 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 197097 | 98242 (0.49891) | 98670 | 185 | 191908.33 | 189536.22 | 1295.22 | 2372.11 | 98.764 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 153541 | 112973 (0.73615) | 40491 | 77 | 154490.11 | 152248.60 | 467.98 | 2241.50 | 98.549 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 12790 | 10165 (0.79520) | 2618 | 7 | 21781.84 | 21498.93 | 400.00 | 282.91 | 98.701 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 12256 | 10477 (0.85631) | 1758 | 21 | 13790.16 | 13709.83 | 400.00 | 80.33 | 99.417 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 5855 | 5355 (0.91570) | 493 | 7 | 10796.05 | 10722.51 | 0.00 | 73.53 | 99.319 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7676 | 7383 (0.97996) | 151 | 142 | 16433.78 | 16156.53 | 239.21 | 277.25 | 98.313 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1343327 | 548066 | 793756 | 1505 | 333708.74 | 324427.83 | 148.11 | 9280.90 | 97.219 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 45924 | 23187 | 22528 | 209 | 544573.43 | 541214.26 | 5673.35 | 3359.17 | 99.383 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1389251 | 571253 | 816284 | 1714 | 878282.18 | 865642.10 | 5821.47 | 12640.07 | 98.561 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 12640.07996177 BTC (1.439%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 699.82265000 BTC SD Profit after fees: 11940.25731177 BTC (1.360%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 4633008 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2575926 (55.6%) Blockchain MB: 1922.8 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1052.2 (54.7%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F1GVxI.png&t=665&c=Gm7uPPoHW1Urog)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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