I only went for -6.5, but the missed field goal in the first half killed my chances.

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I have the Cowboys -1.5 for this week's MNF. The public and the sharps are all on the Chargers, but I think this is a recovery game for the Cowboys after losing badly to the 49ers last week. I also thought of adding the under, but with the defense of these two teams, it could still go over.



Edit: Winner, even with the Cowboys taking the lead you can't be too comfortable. lol

Those couple of weeks took so long, anyway, i'm happy season 3 is already here.  

The handicap choice for the AC Milan question got me confused. It means they'll cover the handicap even if they lose, right? Or is it the other way around, where they have to cover by winning two or more goals since they're the slight favorites for this match?

That Spain MOTD was a bad loss as Morata almost had a goal in the first half and was taken away due to offsides.

Today's MOTD (Belgium vs Sweden) seems solid as Belgium faces Sweden at home and already beat them on the road 3-0, and they paired it with Lukaku anytime goalscorer, which should hit when he already has nine goals out of the sixteen from the team. I still don't recommend putting a lot on this MOTD because the downside here is that Belgium already qualified for EURO, so there's not much pressure to get a win here.

The game is a bit ugly as both teams struggle when they start to go near the end zone. The Bills don't look like a favorite atm with a turnover at the start and then that missed field goal attempt.

I'm starting to think my bet is already dead because I don't think they can cover the spread with this type of performance.

Edit: They gave the ball back again as I was posting this.  I thought this would be an easy win but I guess we're in for a ride and maybe even an upset if the Bills don't wake up in the second half.

He's been losing some of his bets, and I remember others mentioned fading him because of his luck. That big bet probably doesn't mean much for him since he's partnered with Stake, and we've seen other influencers place big bets like they're nothing to them.

It's understandable why he took it since that's where the value is when Paul was the big favorite for this match but an unexpected DQ happened.

Good job on avoiding a bullet from the 49ers.   The bookies are probably cashing in on that upset when i've seen so many bettors share their parlays that include the 49ers.

I'm still going for the same betbuilder play (alternate handicap+ total) because I still like the under for this match but on a slightly higher number in case the Bills' offense can't be stopped.

Weekly Update(link)

Removed BC.Game, Cryptoplay, Nitrobetting, and Utopia from the table.
Moved Stresse from CFNP to OFNP.
Moved Coinomize and Yo!Mix from OFNP to CFNP.
Moved Webmixer from PNYC to CFNP.
Moved Rollbit from CFNP to FLUX.
Added Nightmarestresser under CFNP.

I also prefer to skip the MOTD, but I see Spain as a value pick when they need the win to widen the gap against Norway in the standings.

I'm not confident like the France MOTD because I still remember Spain failing me before, but it's more worrying for Norway when they already gave up four goals at home.

They picked Morata for the ATGS, which should increase the chance of the MOTD to hit, as he's the top scorer for Spain with four goals. I'd bet on the Spain MOTD only with a small stake because Morata can still fail to find a goal when it's a road match.

After he moved to the side of the Broncos, I agree that he doesn't look like the same threatening quarterback who used to play with the Seahawks.

Looking at their next couple of matches, I might also hop in on the fade train as they face the Chiefs again.

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The only confident play I have in mind for this week is the 49ers alternate handicap (-5 or 6) and combine it with the alternate under (45 or 46) to push the odds close to even.

Both teams have a solid defense, but the Browns will struggle to score with their QB (Watson) out.

Scotland failed us yesterday, but still, it's a decent attempt when their expected goal was higher than one while only having one SOG.

I like today's MOTD (France vs Netherlands) now that the ATGS they picked for France's MOTD is Mbappe, who currently has four goals and is the top scorer for their team. Earlier this week i've heard the others mention hopping on France before the odds go down because the Netherlands squad won't have some of their best players.

Here's what I have for the fourth day of the Worlds' Play-ins, and the matches today should be more one-sided when these losses could be a wake-up call for them. Also, I don't recommend putting much on this in case someone decides to tail because i've been on a bad losing streak recently.

GAM and R7 looked lifeless on their losses, but GAM should pick things up or at least get one map against R7, who I think is the worst team out of both groups. The DFM vs BDS series should be 2-0 for BDS when DFM doesn't have the best top lane anymore and it mattered during their series against CFO. I can't see an angle for BDS to lose when Adam will thrive at the top lane and carry the team again.

It's not a major but more of a TI version of LoL since only the best teams from each region receive a slot. I'm only betting on it because I thought it'd be more predictable, but it's been the other way around(three upsets out of the six series played).

BOL on your bets and your sleep schedule. 

I might do a bit of live bet on the games for tomorrow and use lower stakes until the next phase.

I'm in the same VIP rank and received $30~ after wagering close to $10k for the last 30 days. It's good enough for me as I was expecting less after receiving an okay bonus from the weekly coupons these past few weeks.

It's also why I still play here as my VIP progression is more than halfway through the next rank. Better claim that last VIP rank-up bonus before switching to another bookie.

I somehow think the same after the Chiefs looked shaky in their last two matches, but I don't see them being bad enough to lose against one of the worst teams like the Broncos.

The spread on the Chiefs felt too much for me and after watching the Jets game, i'd better buy some points to avoid stressing out on the spread, so I whipped up a bet builder and took the -3.5 spread together with the under 51.5 @2.10 (odds boost). I imagine the scoreline for this game would look similar to the Bears game and pray that the Chiefs' defense would hold the Broncos to maybe a couple of TD or field goals.

We're back to football MOTDs because the next three rounds of EURO Qualification matches will start today. I only sprinkled a bit on Croatia's MOTD because the player they picked for the ATGS leg might not hit when he hasn't scored one in the four games he played. After checking the match page, he's one of the players with the lowest odds for the ATGS market, and it looks too good to be true. I also have this BTTS bet between Scotland and Spain as my main pick. The odds are surprisingly decent at plus odds when both teams are sitting at the top of the standings.

Expanding your luck doesn't make sense because it is not something you can control when it's more of a scenario that will eventually come randomly as you gamble. I understand why you don't recommend gambling all over the place, but it shouldn't have much of an impact when the same thing happens at some point in the future. There's no point in overthinking these luck-based games when even using the best strategy isn't always enough for gamblers to win their bets.

My Worlds' bets have been shitting the bed, but I got one back after live betting on Team Whales to win map 3. BDS had the edge in drafts during the second and third maps, while their synergy became nonexistent after the first map.

We have a bunch of tight series today, as the winners of each series will advance to the qualification match. I got Loud+1.5 in the first series and i'm leaning on Team Whales +1.5 for the other series. After the upsets, i'm starting to think the favorites don't deserve the odds they get and are more vulnerable to dropping a map.



At first look, Group B is super stacked and it sucks for Thunder Awaken to be placed in a group filled with the best teams. 

I somewhat agree with the first half of your advice because taking breaks is one way to reset your session and it can help you consistently avoid making bad decisions if you're one of those emotional gamblers. You lost me at the other half because your luck could continue the way it was after your break and could last for more than a single session.

I used to do this as well, but instead of changing from one game to another, I would switch casinos every week because I thought opening a new account would mean resetting my luck.

You could make your strategy work, but it can still fail more than you expect because it still depends on how well you can hit your bets and manage your stakes. It's good to know when we should cash out our profits at the right moment, but it's not enough if we lack in the other parts of sports betting or gambling overall.

Also, losing streaks and losing sessions could go on for a very long time, so investing elsewhere won't stop the bleeding unless you can consistently win more than you lose.

I'm continuing my bets for Worlds, as the matches will start in a few hours. Time to go chalk mode today because the skill gap between each region is too wide to expect an upset like yesterday's series between GAM and Loud. The closest series would probably be the DFM vs CFO series, but i'd put CFO's skill level similar to PSG given they come from the same region and only lost 3-2 to them in the finals. They might be the second-best team in the group unless Team Whales makes a miracle against BDS.