Maybe there are more reasons besides the outages (that now are being accused as being purposeful)?

There are also accusations that Coinbase is helping out the feds with surveillance tools.  No?

Coindesk article from 5 days ago describing Coinbase as helping out the feds

I am somewhat sorry to rub it in, but there is not really a lot of sympathy for people who got involved in shitcoins in this thread, and I suppose there is more sympathy if you have at some point gotten out of them, and agree to mostly denigrate them.. at least in this thread.

Surely there are some folks who cannot resist to dabble in shitcoins, but I cannot really see much if any reason to have more than 10% of the value of your bitcoin investment into shitcoins, even though there might be some willing to accept that some people may have up to 25% in shitcoins, and still have some redeeming characteristics.

I recall during the 2017 price rise, there were quite a few people with almost no allocation in bitcoin, or merely small amounts of their investment in bitcoin like 10% or 20% in bitcoin, when their allocation into bitcoin should have been the opposite.. 80% to 90% in bitcoin.

Some are still waiting, anxiously, for another altcoin season that may or may not happen.. I am not going to write off the happening of another altcoin season, even though I still believe that it is not a good place to have very much of your investment unless you have largely got a decent stake in bitcoin first.


Even if coinmarket cap is your last resort, it is still not a good resort... especially if you are attempting to figure out the short to medium term direction of BTC prices.

There are a lot of us who are active in this thread who believe that some of the best strategies in bitcoin are to dollar cost average, to buy on the dip and to HODL... And, frequently it is not a good strategy to sell with the intent to buy back later, unless you are merely selling small amounts as the BTC price goes up and using that money to buy back on the dip.

So yeah, if there is an anticipation that the BTC price might be breaking down, then it might be better to hold onto cash and to buy on the dip, so there are ways to just buy regularly no matter what and then try to not really guess if the BTC price is going to dip, but if it does happen to dip to have some fiat available to buy in the event that happens.

What kind of strategies are you following, fonship?

Have you been stacking away BTC that you do not sell, and maybe only selling small portions of your BTC from time to time, or are you trying to play BIGGER with your BTC stash in order to attempt to time the market?

A worse, practice would be shorting or using margin.  Those are very risky and take a lot of time to learn and to develop skills and we have even witnessed a lot of experienced traders who have come to the BTC space and tried to employ their trading skills while using margin and shorting and who frequently get reckt when they engage in such practices.

There are some traders who proclaim to do well with their engaging in leveraged trades, but many times those traders are shown to get matters wrong - especially when they are betting on down in a bull market.  Concededly we might not know whether we are in a bull market or a bear market until we have been in it for a year or more, but hey, still frequently, the stacking of BTC without engaging in leverage should still be enough to get very rich in bitcoin, without having to employ leverage.

Yes... we might even be able to profess that the BTC price has moved into a supra $8k price about two months ago, and several times, has pushed up to try to get above $10k and has mostly stayed in the higher parts of the price range, but even pushing up on the higher end of the range would not necessarily give confidence that a break is going to be up, rather than having some down correction... even though a lot of us would prefer to just leave 4 digits behind. and move onto BIGGER and higher price arenas.   



I really have a lot of doubts regarding how much weight to give to such a sloppy and even manipulated metric, such as bitcoin dominance, including relying on the pumpementals (or lack of pumpementals) of a bunch of shitcoins in order to determine where the BTC price might go.

Recall that we had falling BTC dominance through a large part of the 2017 BTC price rise, and sure several of the shitcoins did outperform BTC on paper, but surely there would have been a much greater need to get out of those coins, and even questions about how to get out of some of them (once in them), so very difficult to give much confidence to figure out where bitcoin might go based on where it is relative to shitcoins.

Furthermore, another way that BTC dominance can be manipulated is by the addition of various other kinds of worthless coins.  i am not going to assert that tether is worthless, but there are other purportedly stable coins that may or may not be justified to add to the coin market cap (and even if tether might not be worthless, it is an asset is meant to be pegged to the dollar and provides a decent amount of in and out liquidity), so it just seems to be a bit of a different animal and whether it is inflated in one direction or another (whether artificially or not), that still might not really tell us where bitcoin is going to go whether we are talking short term or medium term. 

Same would be true if something like a Libra coin were to show up on the scene (coinmarketcap) all of a sudden, and let's say it came on with an evaluation that was greater than the value of bitcoin, and maybe bitcoin's dominance would then sink between 10% and 25%, but still would not be telling us anything about bitcoin's price performance and/or that bitcoin is a much better asset to be invested into, even if there might be some ambiguity in its relative short term price performance or its ability (or lack of ability) to sustain any kind of meaningful marketcap dominance.


Sure the GBTC premium could give some indication regarding increasing demands for that product which are supposed to be backed by real bitcoin.


I agree with you that there are multiple factors affecting BTC price, and surely the effects of halvening can take several months before it is felt - but there still might be some questions regarding how much the BTC price might have had already been pushed up prior to the halvening (the priced in theory).. so surely, there might be some bearwhales who would like to play on perceptions that there is going to be a BTC price drop after the halvening before the BTC price goes up, but for sure a BTC price drop is not a condition precedent.  In other words, the BTC price could surely go up without any need for a BTC price drop first.

I will clarify that I do not buy that the halvening is in any kind of meaningful way "priced in," because I continue to believe that people hardly know shit about bitcoin, including people who own bitcoin, and there will still be a lot of attempts to get the BTC price to go down, even while the material reality of a shrunk supply (meaning the reduction of the issuance of new BTC) becomes more and more felt with the passage of time.. and forces the BTC price to go up, whether bearwhales want to keep the BTC price down or not.   

She is putting up a decent and laudable fight at this stage, even while trade volume has remained largely mediocre.... while at the same time, this lingering might be giving some credence to both a Lindy effect theory, and a damn bursting possibility.  Though I am NOT going to proclaim to know whether this time around of passing above $10k (presuming that we do) will either endure or if any of us can rest assured that 4 digits has become a view in the rear mirror rather than a reoccurring status.

If such a pathological scamster has his toe into many simultaneous scam attempts, his fugitive from justice status will likely catch up with him at some point, and even if we might place bets upon which ways or how he might be called to pay, we cannot necessarily predict with any kind of precision beyond merely throwing of darts in the direction of a board while blindfolded.

We are all having a good time, and cheering up regarding our ongoing upwards price pressures.  Then this^^^^



ruinin dee moo





If I cannot see shoes or other parts, then I don't believe.   

I mean, even if you don't agree to meet with any of us shorter-term WO plebs personally, I hope that at least you will allow some of us to visit your island, and maybe provide free appetizers?  No pressure.

 


Like you mentioned, Biodom, I am going to take that proclamation with a BIG ass large grain of salt.... maybe even proclaim that they are full of shit.

They are likely trying to describe bitcoin as being way the fuck more mature than it is, otherwise, like you mentioned, we would be in $100k plus price territories... 

The more I think about it, the more I suspect that the article is full of shit in however they arrive at such purported adoption/investment level measures.

On the other hand, I do agree that likely the trend for more and more traditional investors to be getting involved in bitcoin is likely to be increasing on a regular basis (the longer that bitcoin is around with a kind of Lindy effect).

If you are suggesting half a decade to become filthy [rich], then you seem to be suggesting two more up cycles (the one that we are in, plus another one, no)?

One up cycle (the one we are in) would thereby achieve a kind of normal rich/comfortable, and the next cycle would lock in "filthy" status?

What about the guys (and gal) who blow their loads on this next (current) cycle?  What's going to happen to those wadd blowers?  There must be some "wadd blower" in our midst, no?

In other words, are you sure that some of the current WO participants are not going to screw up their own situations?

I do tend to agree with a kind of presumption that anyone who is currently investing in bitcoin because they have become sufficiently acquainted with bitcoin and largely aiming at BTC accumulating is likely going to be able to do much better with their investment portfolios than those people who do not invest in bitcoin (or adequately know about it - or take action in regards to getting started with a meaningful/adequate BTC allocation), yet there is also a phenomenon in which a large number of BTC investors make a sufficient number of ongoing mistakes that causes them to largely financially perform mediocrely in their bitcoin investment(s) rather than really being able to prosper from their bitcoin investment/involvement.

I likely could even include myself in such mediocre performance group in regards to where I am at with my bitcoin as compared to where I could have been under more optimal practices... because I have been maneuvered out of a certain meaningful quantity of my coins (likely I am to blame for my own situation)...

What is the percentage of BTC HODLers who really figure out ways to play their BTC investment/involvement to a kind of meaningful perfection?  besides hairy?  (hahahahaha... I believe that even hairy would likely admit to some mistakes along the way, perhaps?)

Are there any BTC HODLer/accumulators who have been through at least one up and down BTC price cycle going to proclaim that s/he has not made any mistakes in their bitcoin investment?

Maybe I should not be fighting you too much in regard to your proclamations of impending richie status on the masses of regular WO participants, cAPSLOCK?  

There likely are a decent number of regular WO participants (at least historical ones) who have already come quite close to locking in a kind of "richie" status, especially if they have largely held through a couple of up/down BTC price cycles.. and even if they may have made a decent number of mistakes with their BTC along the way, they still may have been able to achieve a decent amount of richie status from their BTC investment/involvement, so long as staying persistent in mostly HODL and accumulating through more than one up/down BTC price cycles..

Is that what we are saying, cAPSLOCK?  Based on your forum registration date, you must have at least a couple of up/down BTC price cycles under your belt, cAPSLOCK?  But you are not already at a kind of "filthy" status?

By the way, I do not consider myself at "filthy" status yet, but maybe i would not need two more cycles to achieve "filthy" status, and maybe one more cycle (this current one that we seem to be in) would be good enough for me?  Perhaps.? let's see how it goes and whether I screw anything up in my own style/approach. (we have discussed before that filthy status has both objective and subjective elements to it, so whether my own perception of "filthy" status involves less than 1 BTC, 10 BTC or more than 50 BTC would likely be a matter of discretionary OPsec privacy....     )

Nobody fits into the exact mold.

We are each individual snowflakes..... 

Hahahahaha

Just joking, in part, but there remains a bit of a problem to try to suggest that anyone is responsible for any particular policy direction, because policy directions come from an amalgamation of factors, including the fact that even power brokers might be making deals behind the scenes, and regular people might not even know how much they are being mislead, from time to time, about the purpose of various initiatives and the impact, and there frequently is ONLY so much that any person can do at various stages of their lives.

I had periods of my life that I was relatively active and proactive, and several times, I had to pay various prices for my proactivity, and sometimes, I look back at what I may have accomplished, and I am not even sure about whether some of my proactivity paid off.  There were several times that I recall achieving some institutional changes that were perceived to have been  injustices, and looking back at the whole thing, I am NOT even sure if the changes stuck or that they caused more fairness and without some reversion back to other kinds of injustices.  It can be difficult to both influence systems to lessen the abuse of individuals or to cause lessons learned from the past to become standardize practices of new individuals who come into power and want to make their mark, including the fact that some people come into power and are abusive of their powers - which might cause some people to wonder how much of a role they can play in trying to ensure justice, fairness and lack of abuses of discretion (especially if they had fought some of those battles in the past when they had more energy and youth). 

Of course, getting older might cause some less activism and even some changes in mindset, and for example, even though I am very disinclined to go out onto the street to send messages of injustice and protest for change, I still believe that the younger people putting their bodies on the line are largely working in the favor of the people in their attempts to draw attention to a variety of injustices in the system, even if some of them might be attempting to personally profit from looting or some other kinds of more extreme expressions of their self-interests that may well not be more helpful than hurtful.

Are you taking it back, Jimbo?   


 

No one knows.

ATH might never be reached

and reasonably, a new ATH could take 3 weeks to 3 years to reach.

You can look at the charts for last time, it took 18 months after the halvening to reach the ultimate ATH for that price run (even though ATHs started being reached about 11 months before the ultimate ATH for that period peaked).

Assuming that an ATH is reached, it could reasonably be anywhere between $30k and $500k

Outside of that range would not be reasonable.

#DYOR
#YMMV
#BTMFD & #DCAtoo



Ok... I won't

Of course, there are no guarantees in bitcoin, so if you have any knowledge of bitcoin, then you should use that knowledge to figure out how much of your wealth that you would like to put into bitcoin.  I surely do not believe in all or nothing investing, but if you are a young investor, it might be practical for you to start out with one investment while you are expanding the kinds of things that you invest in, and while you are building your investment portfolio.

Some people make mistakes regarding what they invest in, and other people make mistakes by not investing at all.

But, you still need to ask yourself if you are not investing into bitcoin, then what are you going to invest in, and if you have some competing investments, then maybe you would choose to put somewhere between 1% and 10% into bitcoin, while investing the rest of your capital into other kinds of investments.  Ultimately, people are not going to choose the same, and also people are going to have varying degrees of performance too.

So the personal factors that you figure out for yourself should be: your cashflow, your other investments, your view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, your risk tolerance, your timeline, and your skills, time and abilities to research, manage and tweak your investments from time to time, including trading, if any.  People are going to be in different places, including different if you can afford to invest some lump sum or if you only can invest $10 per week or maybe you can afford $200 per week, but if you have 10 years as your investment horizon, something like dollar cost averaging, even a small amount, might end up working out better in terms of NOT being so worried about what is going to happen in 2030, if anything... and if you are really worried about it, then maybe if you have $100 per week to invest, , you only put $1 to $10 into bitcoin in such a way that feels comfortable to you, and whether you are correct or not is a risk that you have to take for yourself, because other people do not know either, they merely have theories and some of those theories are more likely to be better theories and some theories are going to NOT look so good, when we look back 10 years from now.

Sure, it is easy to argue with your parents, when you do not even understand what you are arguing about, even though you try to act like you have simple solutions to everything, right Ibian?


Social security was designed in the 1930s in such a way that it pays for itself.  The problem comes when there has been borrowing against the system for such a long time (since the 70s at least, but periods of time in which the borrowing has been even worse) in order to pay for other aspects of the government, such as military defense and other programs that should be paid for by taxes.. but taxes have not been sufficient to pay for the various expenditures, so the whole spending out strips the taxes and whenever there are panics and shortfalls in cash, the solution is to print more.. have you heard of money printer go brrrrrrrr... ?  

Yes, the printing of money and the borrowing against social security has gotten worse and worse and worse, and the solution is not merely cutting social security, even though you believe that is the solution because you don't even understand that the money had already been paid into social security, but then other aspects of the government have been borrowing against such funds because there were inadequate funds in other parts of the government, so the easy solution would be to borrow against social security and to print more money  out of thin air in order to cause social security to appear as if it had not been funded adequately or to cause it to appear as if social security were some set of freebies, when that is not the case.

Your parents might be as confused as you about all the juggling of money and the propaganda and the easy solutions and the kicking the can down the road by creating more and more debt and failure and refusal to adequately tax, and that is why you can argue with them about shit that neither of you know and call them names and be disrespectful, when you likely should have had more spankings when you were younger.

Maybe spanking you as an adult might be in order, too? #nohomo





You "forgot" to say #nohomo, so I find your statement to be problematic.   

Actually, if you are just getting started in bitcoin, then 10 years would be a pretty good investment timeline to build up the quantity of your bitcoins.

In the scheme of things, even 10 years is fairly short for an investment timeline and to really establish your position, even though bitcoin has shown the ability of investors to profit quite well in the short term, too.   Yet, many times traditional investment timelines tend to take 30 years or longer to really bear fruit... and frequently there will be needs for persistence and even smart investment and preserving capital while building capital.

In regards to bitcoin, there could be up to 3 upwards and downwards cycles between now and 2030, though, so it is good to prepare for those kinds of cyclical possibilities, too... .even though none of the BTC price action matters are even close to guaranteed, there are merely a variety of decent BTC price prediction models, that so far seem to be valid, which would include the stock to flow model amongst the most well known of the current seemingly valid BTC price prediction models.

The problem is not that the taxes are too high, but probably a lack of taxes, especially the very wealthy don't pay shit, instead, they loan money to the government and the government overall creates money out of thin air rather than figuring out reasonable means to create sustainable programs, to live within reasonable means.. but hey, war mentality and outrageous spending on conquering the world in various ways and/or conquering people within the country is not exactly an approach to governance that is based on reason.. or fairness but instead bullying exacerbation of outrageous wealth disparities including fear to do anything that attempts to reign in exorbitant wealth because regular people want to identify with the filthy rich bullies and act as if the filthy rich deserved their gains and regular people want to aspire to such status, too... and believe that government is getting in the way.. instead of being a tool that should be more responsibly directed as a tool of the people rather than a tool for the filthy rich to exploit with their shenanigans.

In other words... pay your fucking taxes... and sure nothing wrong with either figuring out ways to pay less or figuring out ways to get benefits but also ways to make government more responsible and responsive to regular people, not an easy task, even with a money like bitcoin that is hopefully going to bring some abilities to make governments more responsive, but might take 50 years or more.

I personally don't consider it a good idea to be forwarding the messages of banned members..  call me a prude.

I am no fucktwat supporter, but he has succeeded in keeping a bunch of dimwits following him and keeping a scam alive for many years... including forking off and maintaining some value in the market cap.  I don't know if he is making any money in regards to how much capital he has had to inject or if might have a way to exit scam with any profits (sure that is future versus past)... .

If he ends up in jail that should not be considered profitable, but I doubt that we know enough about his personal finances or how much debt he might be running to hold up various smoke and mirror appearances in order that dimwits filled with hopium are going to continue to prop up his ongoing scam project.. or maybe he can stack away some of the float, too.

As humans we have peaks... I have noticed... physical and mental.

Wisdom might even deteriorate too, but years of practice may well have caused us to have surplus capital, at certain points of our elder years, so long as we do not screw up too many things.

Am I too pessimistic today?

I will admit that I had a dream last night about BTC prices crashing to $5... was not pretty, and I am glad that my dreams do NOT relate too much to reality.

That quote seems to a bit strange because wealth is a product of a lot of different factors, including at minimum: 1) luck 1a) preparation 1b) opportunity, 2) thinking, planning and revision of planning, as warranted, 3) action and 4) starting position.

Depending on starting position, it can take a long time to build wealth and even can take a lot of failure to do the wrong things in order to preserve wealth.

You can likely fuck up a lot if you start from wealth, and still be able to preserve a decent amount of wealth and build wealth, and sure, frequently people who are building wealth from nothing make mistakes along the way, and if they make small mistakes and learn from their mistakes, then they would increase their chances to build wealth, even though building wealth might not be guaranteed, either.

For example, there could be one man who starts out with nothing and takes 30 years to build up to a net worth of $500,000 by the time that he is 51 years old, and many times, that level of wealth would be respectable - because some people live so much in debt that they never really build wealth, but instead are always paying debt, gambling and taking their material goods for granted, assuming that they are wealthy, even if everything they "own" is mortgaged or leased.

There could be man two, who comes from wealth, let's say daddy left him $8million in a trust fund when he turned 21, but that same man could have squandered down the $8million to $500k in the next 30 years, and feel as if he is not very wealthy because his networth is only $500k.

Let's say man 1 and man 2 above are in the same place by the time that they are 51 years old, each of them have a networth of $500k.  At that point, the question might be about whether in the previous 30 years, each of them have prepared for their older years and if they have systems and allocations in place that facilitate growth of wealth or at least maintenance of wealth and an ability to live within their means to feel comfortable in their elder years without having to be forced to do things that they do not want to do, whether they continue to work or go into a less working lifestyle.

Sure, many people are going to want to have more than $500k in networth to feel comfortable in stopping working, so if maybe they only have 10 or 15 years left in their working career, they might wonder whether $500k is enough to get them to a comfortable status by the time he gets into his 60s.


That is a great idea.  I had thought about doing something like that previously, but I had never really made such a change.  

Your post caused me to actually make such change to my numbers in the app, and I feel a bit better about it, whether I am obscuring from blockfolio or anyone else who might get their eyes on such data, including if someone were to just be shoulder surfing when I am admiring my numbers.

I will have to practice for a while, so I can get used to making the mental conversion.


Funny.  I can imagine AlcoHoDL doing an expressive dance towards his phone trying to get the phone to cooperate in showing the proper numbers.



I need one of those too... just like my avatar suggests.

On November 14, 2019, there was a pretty big change in the number of merit sources (from 90 to 98.. some merit sources were removed as merit sources, too on that date, I believe) and the quantity of merit sources in the allocations of various merit sources were increased by 175% of the average monthly amount that they had been using in the previous 6 months (something like a use or lose adjustment).

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5198889.msg53078228#msg53078228