i just checked the tournament lobby for tomorrow's game---still only 3k starting stacks?!? what's up, @efialtis? i thought the poll seemed pretty clearly in favor of 5k stacks.  By the way, I stood among Top 10 in 'Play with Steve' tournament previous Wednesday. Don't assume that I'm weak player. My username - BetStrong. It speaks for itself as well.  bring it! i wonder who will prevail between BetStrong and Betwrong..... |
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Good luck with series 2 everyone. The structure just doesn't really allow me to take part... no biggie. I might try to come play the odd one but with my work schedule i am working every second weekend, so chasing a series final isn't really in the cards... not that 8 games helped last time  I'll keep an eye out and will try to join Saturday next week. just take down 2 of the qualifiers. piece of cake. By the way, who were playing in last night's Poker with Steve? I ran out of luck and ended at position 18th I think.
busted out in 20-somethingth place. also came a hair from taking the bounty on steve but he had me slightly out-stacked before the all-in. i'm reserving some run-good for the bitcointalk series, obviously.  see everyone tomorrow for the first game of the series! |
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the point was that common output sizes are just that---common on the network.
By "common chip sizes", I mean they're common to CM (ChipMixer). For Non-CM transactions, chip sizes are not common at all. without a larger verifiable study on that matter, that's arguable. I'm not aware of CM-specific examples, but it's common for many mixers and exchanges,
BTW, I agree Wasabi creates a more obvious TX, but what I've been trying to prove is CM usage is also clear, even though less obvious at first glance. i am eagerly awaiting your upcoming research paper where you show how you broke chipmixer. please keep us all apprised.  I wanted to remind users that they should treat CM coins dirty by default (like all mixers, not CM's fault)
that is not a given, especially considering the low volume of bitcoin usage for illicit purposes. despite what you may think, blockchain analysis heuristics are far from foolproof, and distant degrees of taint do not break bitcoin fungibility. |
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the on-chain footprint of coinjoins is much more obvious. blockchain analysis heuristics based purely on common output sizes are unlikely to be very useful.
Not only the output amount. How ChipMixer creates the chips follows certain patterns, you need to emulate the patterns too. Just splitting your coins into ChipMixer's chip sizes in your own wallet won't help against analysis like the FAQ claims. It can only fool stupid analysis tools. you said "it's also easy to tell if you used chipmixer, because of the common chip sizes" so i was speaking to that, not about trying to split coins in your own wallet. the point was that common output sizes are just that---common on the network. There are more problems. Many users sweep different chip sizes in single TX making it even more obvious. Even if none of these worked, then chips will lead to someone's tainted coins and will raise alarms at the exchange etc.
any examples of that actually happening? i agree that many users sacrifice privacy by sweeping outputs together, and/or immediately, after mixing. ideally they would hold onto chips until they need them (throwing off time attacks) and spend them one at a time. |
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Can you trust a cryptocurrency exchange?
short answer: no. long answer: some exchanges are more trustworthy than others, re the likelihood of an exit scam or a seizure by law enforcement agencies. however, they are all prone to hacking or inside jobs, so relying on an exchange to store your coins = playing with fire. no matter which exchange you use, you should minimize the time you keep money there. just deposit, do your trading, then withdraw. |
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Sure, they can issue them, but only very, very cautious investors would buy them.
I certainly wouldn't want to touch them. ROI would be ridiculous.
the ECB will buy them via their bond purchase programs. it's just another step towards "QE infinity" though. I'm not an economic expert, but this seems to me to be a much better solution than printing money that we are witnessing especially in the USA.
i'm no economics expert either, but my take is that QE is the only way for the market to absorb these bonds at these yields/volumes, so it's just another form of money printing. |
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Yes, Wasabi transactions is obvious, but it's also easy to tell if you used ChipMixer, because of the common chip sizes. Correct me if I'm wrong. the on-chain footprint of coinjoins is much more obvious. blockchain analysis heuristics based purely on common output sizes are unlikely to be very useful. chipmixer touches on the chip size stuff in their FAQ. https://chipmixer.com/faqWhy chip values are so weird? 1.024 BTC? Why not 1 BTC?
We wanted to have a lot of chip sizes and to easily split/merge them. if you start with 1 BTC and you split it, your minimal chip is 0.015625 BTC which seems even weirder.
But 1.024 BTC is so uncommon that everyone will know I've used this mixer!
After a while it will get more common, because you won't even need to use mixer to anonymize your coins. Just split them into tokens and they look exactly like chips.
I really, really want 1 BTC chip!
You are in luck! We have introduced commonize function which will swap your weird looking 1.024 BTC chip into 1 BTC chip and weird looking 0.512 BTC into 0.5 BTC.
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I think it was possible to get away from this hand, that is why I like to hold myself to certain ranges of hands when I play OP/OOP or against somebody OP/OOP.
In my opinion, all in was a mistake here, you should check or bet (but not much), especially OOP. Villian re-raised pre-flop and it shows a lot of strength, which indicates hand like (AA, KK, AKs, AQs). fair point, but not having any history on villain, i dunno if i should assume that range. plenty of players like to 3bet more aggressively than that. even with that limited range, AK/AQ obviously missed the flop, which was burning in my mind when he jammed. it screamed "missed flop, overcards" to me. Additionally, when you go all in it shows to Villain that you have almost nothing, taking into consideration the flop and pre-flop betting, even with a flush draw you would likely to be slow-playing this hand. ah, you have it reversed. i raised first preflop, he limp-3bet me OOP, then he went all-in on the flop. so now maybe you have some insight into my mindset, and why i thought there was a good chance he missed the flop and was trying to bluff me off it, or had an underpair. i did contemplate a fold, but tbh i figured JJ+/AQ+/KQ/88/77/JT+ were in his range, also possibly suited connectors with gutshot/flush draw there too, also bluffs. (i've seen lagtards pull this move with 48o on me) i don't think he's shoving TT/99 here most of the time. the more i think about, the more EV+ calling seems tbh. calling was a gamble but mainly just because of the pot size relative to blinds. My suggestion: look into poker hands ranges, which hand you should play from which position, especially in 9-handed Texas Holdem, I play only 6 hands tables.
hmmm.... Premium Pocket Pairs – Hands like TT+ are premium preflop holdings and should be raised first in from any position. These are hands that are profitable over the long run, and can withstand aggression from 3-bets, as well as callers. https://upswingpoker.com/texas-holdem-starting-hands-guide/ |
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What I wanted to say: All of that means "additional rules", sort of... when most people just want to play some poker. Tbh I don't see a reason why we should implement such "rules" when anyone can freely donate chips as they wish.
As some guys pointed out earlier, donating like half of the estimated prize pool would make the series less attractive and I actually get that. +1. we should really keep them separate. otherwise it messes with all the incentives and less people will wanna play in the series. i think (hope) we could generate a decent turnout with a separate charity game. as an example, 0.005 BTC x 25 players / 2 = 0.0625 BTC donated. anybody who can't play or wants to add donations on top can do that too. |
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After Updating, did bitcoin.com create an entirely new wallet for him?
Apparently, the update created an entirely new wallet as the Electrum import also has a zero balance. this is unlikely, but could the wallet files be backed up in his icloud? i know the coinbase wallet app supports icloud backups, but i'm not familiar with the bitcoin.com wallet. otherwise the prospects for recovery don't sound good:If you were to lose or break your device, the only way to recover your Bitcoin.com wallet and the funds is with your 12-word backup phrase. |
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Only Bitcoin and Apple is up today. bitcoin pumped hard today on news that hedge fund giant paul tudor jones is long bitcoin as a hedge against fiat inflation: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-07/paul-tudor-jones-buys-bitcoin-says-he-s-reminded-of-gold-in-70s“It has happened globally with such speed that even a market veteran like myself was left speechless,” Jones, 65, wrote. “We are witnessing the Great Monetary Inflation -- an unprecedented expansion of every form of money unlike anything the developed world has ever seen.”
The question for a macro investor like Jones was how to hedge. He said he considered various bets on gold, Treasuries, certain types of stocks, currencies and commodities before recognizing a “growing role for Bitcoin.” i've been amazed at bitcoin's resilience during these turbulent times. now we know that growing institutional interest is one of the explanations for its strong performance recently. |
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i've played on sportsbet with my android phone. the one problem is the software won't allow you rotate to landscape mode
Are you sure? Because on my phone, it won't allow me to play on portrait mode instead. I have to rotate screen to landscape mode to open poker screen. Here's the screenshot:  you're right, i misspoke. i just pulled up a table on my phone and now i remember the problem: in order for landscape to work, auto-rotate has to be turned on since the default view is portrait. any little movement and my phone tries to rotate back, then i get that message---"please rotate your device". and sometimes when i switch it back, this is what i get:  no buttons, no nothing. then i have to close out the browser and log in again. |
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I reckon the Las Vegas is being pressured by the powerful casino owners.
the real driving force IMO is that the city of las vegas is dead broke, projecting a huge budget deficit due to the lack of incoming tax revenue. Lacking the reserves to fill a projected $147 million budget shortfall over the next 16 months, Las Vegas city officials are looking to federal funding and employee concessions to deal with perhaps the worst financial crisis in its history, City Manager Scott Adams said Wednesday.
The coronavirus pandemic has beaten the city worse and more suddenly than the Great Recession a decade ago, when gradual economic setbacks left it with a $100 million deficit.
“We are in the midst of the most serious fiscal crisis I think the city of Las Vegas has ever faced,” Adams told the City Council. https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/las-vegas/federal-money-concessions-sought-to-close-las-vegas-budget-gap-2022662/ |
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Wasn't able to play on Steve's poker yesterday due to laptop issues. Quick question to everyone, have you ever tried playing in Steve's tournament using your phone? Is it possible and playable? I don't want to miss such fun tournaments in the future. i've played on sportsbet with my android phone. the one problem is the software won't allow you rotate to landscape mode, so the view is quite compressed. it's playable, but hopefully you have a phone with a big screen. |
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i don't mean to be a downer, but this could go on for years. since there is no vaccine or herd immunity, experts are expecting cases to rise again after reopening---not to mention during the winter flu season. are you gonna feel safe flying in airplanes, eating in restaurants/bars, shopping often? lots of people won't. and then you have the economic damage: so many people will be broke (and unemployed) after this, not spending money. as abhiseshakana points out, consumer spending is vital to the american economy. it accounts for something like 70% of all economic activity. without a miracle treatment/vaccine, i don't see a quick recovery happening.  I'm not saying that it is not necessary to develop vaccines to treat people and to support them. I'm saying that getting out of the current situation will be faster than trying to get out of the great depression or 2008.As soon as they find a fully working 100% method of vaccination, the world will come to life again and everything will be as before in just a year and a half. the most optimistic estimate for a widely produced and safe vaccine = 1.5 years. and that would be record-shattering for vaccine development so let's not get our hopes up too much. 5+ years is the typical development cycle, and sometimes (as with the SARS coronavirus) no vaccine is ever successfully developed. the economic damage is quickly surpassing 2008. maybe this recession will end up somewhere between 2008 and the great depression. |
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the stimulus has acted as a band-aid that is clearly failing. meanwhile, USA coronavirus cases and death rates are still rising significantly and governors are saying "fuck it, we can't beat it, let's reopen anyway". If you mean the yesterday's spike  it could be an outlier. We've yet to see what it was. But even that wasn't the highest number of daily deaths in the US during the corona pandemic, 2,350(yesterday) vs 2,683 in April 21 and 2,470 in April 28. I wouldn't call it a significant rise. In fact, it isn't a rise at all. i guess it depends what source you look at. the WHO said the surge a few days ago (2909 deaths) was the highest on record. https://www.businessinsider.com/us-records-highest-daily-death-toll-states-start-reopening-economy-2020-5and that's after 6-7 weeks of locking down. it's probably best not to focus on nationwide statistics anyway. dropping rates in NYC and a couple other areas are masking rising cases and deaths in many parts of the country, which is probably meaningful due to the exponential nature of viral spread. a draft government report even suggests the daily death rate will double by june. https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-coronavirus-world-updates-20200505-2uk3iv5ng5hynmr6foem6f3gde-story.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/06/opinion/coronavirus-deaths-statistics.htmlhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/04/coronavirus-update-us/we'll see how things progress, but the experts now think this pandemic will keep up at a slow burn, and that we'll definitely have a second wave. could we see on-again off-again lockdowns? i don't think the stock market will take kindly to that. |
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the pool + swc bonus aren't reaching 1000$ and that's for a whole month of playing , so a dedicated event with larger buy ins is the best IMO
+1 The problem will be to hit that sweet spot regarding buy in size that enough people will still want to participate and that we collect enough money for rewards and charity. For me that sweet spot would 5-20 mBTC with half of money going to charity and other half to top three players. > 5 mBTC sounds kinda steep for the regular gambling board crowd. i wonder if we could generate any interest on the rest of the forum though, since it would be a charity event. maybe we should run a poll re what stakes people are willing to play. standard payout structure no good? |
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dang, i managed to short stack steve on a QQ vs JJ all-in, but somebody else took the knockout! i just got knocked out myself, out in 28th. someone limped AA and i overvalued my AQs pre-flop against him. all-in preflop, couldn't suck out! oh well. i see a couple faces i recognize still in it. i'm rooting for Betwrong and BitcoinGirl.Club! |
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Maybe, because right after the news about the US stimulus package, the price slowly shots up, reaching as high as $9400-$9500. They FOMO right before the halving, so it is possible that those who have received it pour it in pushing the price. it's also possible the stimulus checks were coincidental with the price increase, and that the price would have gone up anyway. there have been plenty of surveys taken about what people are spending those checks on. bitcoin hasn't shown up on the radar at all, so while it technically may have had an effect, i assume the effect was tiny. the technical resistance at $7.5k breaking and the buildup to the halving were probably much more significant. that's a really misleading graph. how many people make $1200 deposits to coinbase that a 0.25% increase for one day is really meaningful? the reason brian armstrong didn't come out and give us absolute numbers is because the numbers are extremely small. |
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