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1041  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Watching amateur finance types flail on: June 25, 2011, 02:53:57 PM
it's funny what qualifies as a rebuttal on this board.
the best thing you can come up with "you don't understand this technology".

well, you don't understand manias. you assign value to something based on the potential of a technology.
good read: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_Mania

if you leave fantasies of what "could be" aside the fundamentals dont justify a price exceeding 1/100th of what is currently paid for a bitcoin. probably less.

rest of it here http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=21702.0



Then we should argue about what the "fundamentals" are of bitcoin.  Your argument seems to be that the fundamentals are some napkin estimates of money supply.

I argue the fundamental is the network difficulty, or hash rate:  http://bitcoin.sipa.be

Growth in the fundamental sustains the rise in price.  At least, it has thus far.
1042  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Watching amateur finance types flail on: June 25, 2011, 02:36:27 PM
It's "A Massively Multiplayer Role Playing Game"

Correct.  But it's "An MMORPG".  You don't say the entire acronym out in your head when you read it, hence you pronounce it as if it started with a vowel.  It's the same as something like "Give me an M!  Give me a U!".  M is a consonant, but when you say the actual letter, it begins with a vowel.  U is a vowel, but when you say the actual letter, it starts with a consonant.

Technically, the sound of U doesn't start with a consonant, but with a diphthong, which for the purposes of the a/an rule is about the same thing... A Euro, not an Euro.

And this is only because we're all bored out of our minds waiting for 15:00 Zulu (gmt), and then we can sit and watch the fireworks.

Now you have me wondering how to pronounce "diphthong".
1043  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Did Mt Gox having 60,000 users surprise you? on: June 25, 2011, 02:07:12 PM
I expected more.  I was even more surprised by how new the vast majority were (the 10,000th only being created around mid-May).

This info leak was the best upside to the security breach.  Can now estimate the trading volume of the average user..
1044  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: MT GOX - Account-Tool - Not working..? on: June 25, 2011, 01:54:40 PM
Even very long passwords with non-alphanumeric characters work fine.

There is a lockout after 10 wrong login attempts (said MagicalTux on IRC).  Don't know how long this lockout lasts.

Best of luck..
1045  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: MT GOX - Account-Tool - Not working..? on: June 25, 2011, 12:44:18 PM
A "forgot password" link is now on the claim.mtgox.com/status.html page.  Sends an e-mail with a password reset link.

I was getting an incorrect password error when trying to login to my account.  I had to reset my password.

Now I can login and see my balance.  All systems go!
1046  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Extended Difficulty Forecast on: June 25, 2011, 01:43:57 AM
Nice work.

Around ~3M for block 137088 seems reasonable if the price goes back up to ~$30 before then.

Longer-term prospects of Moore's Law look good.  7000 series AMD GPUs rumored to start shipping later this year, and next-gen Xilinx Artix-7 FPGAs in 1Q 2012 might be cost-competitive with the AMDs.

I would not attribute much credence to the estimated Difficulty on Bitcoin Charts in any case. It is initially way off and only approaches anything accurate when we get close to the re-target, in other words... Useless. They seem to be using an autocorrelation method for the forecast which I discounted months ago. The cross-correlation with price history is much more useful because it allows you to look out farther with less variance.

And then the reported hash rate / difficulty estimate can spike way high just after the readjustment.  I've seen this on bitcoinwatch and bitcoin.sipa.be too.  I think its because they're using the hash rate estimates on blockexplorer.  There should be some method to smooth out the estimate across the readjustment (a short-term estimate with no use of price).  I'd like to use it for my charts.
1047  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Watching amateur finance types flail on: June 25, 2011, 01:00:07 AM
1.  OP's website isn't that bad, it just lacks recent content.

2.  The comparison to Digicash and Beenz is not fair.  Neither was open-source nor decentralized.  And those aren't mere buzzwords.

3.  The comparison to a bubble and/or pyramid scheme is fair and accurate.  However, in these days everything is a bubble or pyramid scheme: Gold, the US dollar, real estate, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Enron and WorldCom, LinkedIn and Groupon, Bernie Madoff and  the SEC and their hedge funds, etc. etc..  So this point is moot.  Every investment is speculative.

What differentiates Bitcoin from the other pyramid schemes is its total public transparency.  Bitcoin is the most transparent pyramid scheme in modern history, and for that reason could turn out to be the most successful.
1048  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I just got "account claim successful" from Mt Gox - anyone else? on: June 24, 2011, 10:55:05 PM
Accepted on 2nd try. I'm working on my acceptance speech now.

LOL.

Successful here on 2nd try.

Glad I was already holding a bit of USD there... going to place some bids for buys on a possible dip.
1049  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: MtGox claim site is up! Everyone who claimed say haaaay ... on: June 23, 2011, 03:09:23 PM
Anyone been processed yet?  I sent a follow-up email.

Not much longer until trading is supposed to resume.
1050  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: someone is syn flooding clients on: June 23, 2011, 01:54:44 AM
I recently launched the client on my school's network and I got a bunch of syn flood attack warnings.
If it goes away in a few minutes, it's probably completely normal. The client wants to be well-connected as quickly as possible and this may set off attack warnings on some systems.

If someone has a chance, it would be helpful to run the client on a machine that is monitored for traffic and connection volume. At least count SYNs to the bitcoin port. Ideally, use the IP for nothing else for awhile and log *all* traffic to it to see if you get probes, attack attempts, and the like. Post your summarized statistical results so we can have a baseline for what's normal. If nobody else does this, I'll try to do it myself tomorrow sometime.

Would be quite helpful if somebody(s) set up several honeypots and left them connected to the network, reporting the results periodically.  There are downloadable honeypot configurations that should make this easy enough.
1051  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: blog.ml-implode.com: A Computer Scientist and “Gold Bug” Analyzes BitCoin on: June 22, 2011, 11:03:41 PM
He starts out repeating the same confusion in the dailytech article he links.  They both mix up the 6-13 theft of allinvain's wallet and the 6-19 breach of MtGox.  Two totally different, unrelated security breaches.
1052  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Camp BX Platform in Beta: Margin Trading, Short Selling, and Advanced Orders on: June 22, 2011, 09:57:30 PM
How about some starting BTC so the order book is more than just buy orders..
1053  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: From reddit: MtGox might have lost control to the majority of their BTC deposit on: June 22, 2011, 06:30:24 PM
Seems to me that MtGox still controls the balance, because the 432k BTC transferred on 6-19 were already consolidated on 6-12.  Either MtGox lost control on 6-12 (no evidence of that) or they still control it now.

It also doesn't seem that an attacker was able to withdraw any significant sum during the attack.  Looking at the bitcoinmonitor screenshot, the second-largest transaction was for ~10k BTC.  And inspecting the transaction for 10,020 BTC in block 131886, we can see that those 10k BTC eventually make it into one of the 50k BTC addresses into which the 432k is split up.

More evidence that MtGox still controls the BTC.


What does remain unexplained is how ~500k BTC were sold on the books.  That all ~500k sold were owned by one account whose password was cracked doesn't seem likely, primarily because ~500k appears to be more than the total sum of deposits MtGox controls (~432k + 10k and a bit more). 

The numbers don't back the explanation that it was a sell-off of one compromised account.  Possibly it was a sell-off of every account using their hashed passwords.  There was probably some bug/exploit in the order book system in addition to the leaked account table.
1054  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: post here when your account is recovered (mt.gox) on: June 22, 2011, 04:52:12 PM
My claim request is still pending.  Another 8 hours will make 24 since the request and then I'm instructed to contact them.
1055  Economy / Economics / Re: MtGox claim site online on: June 21, 2011, 11:22:30 PM
My claim was submitted.

Like the new MtGox logo.
1056  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: So is Mt. Gox getting DDos'd? on: June 21, 2011, 09:56:47 PM
I think they just need to unplug their router and then plug it back in.

Some communication would be nice, but I'm still rooting for mtgox.  I have little choice until they are back up.
1057  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Wild trading at tradehill on: June 21, 2011, 07:36:48 AM
Re: Tradehill hosting. 

46.21.104.237 resolves to
"46-21-104-237-static.serverhotell.net"
Top Level Domain: "serverhotell.net"

http://serverhotell.net -> http://glesys.se/serverhotell.php -> http://glesys.com/


Tradehill seems to be hosted by swedish company glesys.com.  TH themselves should've been the first to stop this rumor (which was probably a joke originally) [you're welcome guys].

1058  Economy / Economics / Re: Price vs Difficulty Charts - indicators for buying or mining on: June 15, 2011, 11:52:45 AM
Thanks for the request.  IMO, difficulty is the "fundamental" of the bitcoin economy, backing and supporting the increase in price. 
Here's a quick update.





Where are we headed next?  Analyses and predictions welcome.
1059  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: LinuxCoin A lightweight Debian based OS with everything ready to go. on: June 15, 2011, 08:47:56 AM
However, there are still serious issues with "FATAL kernel error: Failed to load OpenCL kernel!". Really .. there is something wrong with that.

Use a root terminal.  Do these commands:

cd /opt/AMD-APP-SDK-v2.4-lnx64/
tar -xvf icd-registration.tgz -C /

Secondly, this one:

export LD_LIBRARY_PATH=/opt/AMD-APP-SDK-v2.4-lnx64/lib/x86_64

Then run the miner.
1060  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I just got hacked - any help is welcome! on: June 14, 2011, 01:52:11 AM
Your numbers don't add up.

So far you've only said that you lost "a very large chunk" from this address: 1J18yk7D353z3gRVcdbS7PV5Q8h5w6oWWG.

The receiving address (1KPTdMb6p7H3YCwsyFqrEmKGmsHqe1Q3jg) indeed had 25,000 but only 3522 were received from said address.


How much did you lose and from which addresses?
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