Perhaps we agree on the approximate price range that we are stuck in, but still for different reasons.

The BTC price has brought us to a kind of confluence, but we still have some differing views of how we got here, what might keep us here and what are the odds of getting out of here (and which way).

Certainly, I don't feel that I am proclaiming any kind of difficulty going in one direction or another, so I am not really going to be surprised by a break out in either direction, even though I do tend to lean a bit towards up and to prescribe, overall, to the various current BTC price prediction models such as stock to flow, four year fractal and s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles to be ongoingly contributing to upwards price pressures on BTC, but I am not wedded that those ongoingly upwards price pressures have to necessarily result in short-term upward BTC price performance, especially when we just had a 150% price appreciation from the $3,850 local bottom that even if that may have been a bit of an overreaction, it still happened to have happened and can reasonably contribute to limitations in terms of how much and how fast king daddy might be able to go up without some testing of resolution and also making sure that the buying support is keeping up with the subsequent price movements.

Of course, from time to time, the BTC price move up might get a bit overheated and the price just cannot be sustained on the short term, but regrouping could still take a week or two or more and sometimes just a few days, and continued upwards ends up being in the cards.

Sure, previously, I heard you paint $10,500 as some kind of difficult obstacle for BTC prices to pass toward the upside, and sure such price point could take a while to surpass, until it isn't.  I don't ascribe a whole hell of a lot of any kind of resistance to $10,500 even though I know the further we go up, sometimes there can be difficulties to get past certain points.. at least temporarily.. and maybe $13,880 could be one of those... but maybe not, too.  

In mid-March-ish, you also stated that you thought that we might not see $10k for a couple of years, and about 6 weeks later we were playing around with some short-lived supra $10k which seemed to be quite a bit outside of your previous asserted parameters of upwards expectations... so ultimately I tend to view you as maintaining overly pessimistic viewpoints that surely could damage some fence-sitters who might fail to act (buy BTC) because they do not realize that sometimes bitcoin is not going to return to lower prices before resuming up, and these fence sitters should have been either stacking sats all along or at least been a bit more willing to just buy BTC at any price rather than waiting for some lower low that might or might not happen and even if it does happen it might not last long enough to even matter in the whole scheme of things and they would have been just better off to get the fuck in without over thinking the matter and just buying at whatever price rather than waiting for a possible 20% further discount or whatever that might not come.



I was not really trying to predict any kind of floor, and I had stated $7,800 in my earlier post... .. so the don't wake me up range for me at that time was $7,800 to $10,200 (and of course, my opinion could change based on subsequent happenings, too... perhaps?  perhaps?).

I was merely asserting a BTC price range in which BTC could fairly easily move in the near times that would be within reason in my thinking about the situation, and largely, I would not be getting too exciting (to the extent that I can contain my lil selfie) until the BTC price either got close to the end of the range or broke outside of the range.

As far as bottom, I am starting to think that BTC HODLers could rest more assured that we won't be seeing too much more sub $6k, but hey, anything can happen, and I realize that.

Anyhow, it seems to me that with the passage of time, that BTC price bottom seems to be moving up and up and up, maybe in late 2018 the BTC bottom would have been considered to be $1,500-ish (but never really even very close to being reached), and then mid 2019 it became $3,500-ish... and then maybe late 2019 to early 2020 it became $5k-ish and maybe even $5,500-ish (and of course we saw that got breached for a few days around March 12), and more recently, the bottom has probably gotten a bit higher to be residing at around $6k-ish.. and continuing to move up... little by little with the passage of time.. but still such bottom could end up getting breached, stop moving up or have to be adjusted back downward because of subsequent events.


I doubt that king daddy gives too many shits about corona... but hey, I get what you are saying about macro-dynamics having some effects on bitcoin and liquidation options that might come available to scared peeps, but at the same time, we still have not had any kind of disproving of current and valid btc price prediction models that likely override corona.. until shown otherwise......

So sure, maybe we need to adjust the current btc price prediction models a little bit on their curve.. tweak them down a bit to account for corona... but in the end corona and the money printer go bbbbrrrrrr reaction do not really negate or conflict with the current btc price prediction models as they are in any kind of meaningful ways, so in that sense you seem to be attempting to presume way the fuck too much medium or long term correlation of king daddy to macro systems, which there is little to no evidence of such correlation beyond the wishful thinking of bitcoin naysayers, no coiners and alt coin pumpers, even though there is likely some short term correlation from time to time, but that short-term correlation does not necessarily negate other more important dynamics going on in bitcoin that seem to be captured in its current seemingly valid price prediction models, which again are: 1) stock to flow, 2) Four year fractal, 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles.

So, sure we might get some further drastic BTC price corrections in the upcoming near-term, perhaps, perhaps, based on macro-liquidation situations that end up happening again, but then again, we might not, too.  

Bitcoin might go up another 4x and then get a drastic liquidation correction .. so what would that mean in terms of either correlation or doom and gloom for bitcoin, exactly?  

Anyhow, the punchline in terms of bitcoin remains similar whether we were in 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019 or our new post corona world... which in essence is that newbies still need to get a fucking position in BTC (if they do not have one) and to continue with their accumulation of btc and assurance that they are comfortable with their BTC allocation levels based on their own personal circumstances, which would include their cashflow, other investment, view of bitcoin as compared with other assets, risk tolerance, timeline, and time, skills and abilities to research, manage, tweak and trade their portfolio from time to time....

So yeah, liquidations might happen in bitcoinlandia, but so fucking what, they might not, too, and I doubt that such liquidations or corrections are going to be any worse than any other asset class out there, since price corrections and liquidations might also happen in bitcoinlandia after bitcoin goes up 4x, 10x or 100x.. but whatever, there is always going to be some spin no matter what happens, too.

Despite all the doom and gloom and supposed limitations of the UPside potential of BTC it has consistently been a best practice to continue to accumulate BTC whether DCA or buying on dips or some combination of that, whether we have corona or no corona and whether we have money printer go bbbbbrrrr or not...  so even if the price of king daddy might be flat or ambiguous for a period of time (maybe?), still would be a good time to continue to accumulate BTC in my ongoing thinkenings... that's the punchline.. continue to buy BTC... and accumulate and stack sats in a way that is tailored to your circumstances without going overboard.

ok, big twat.

You meant to say that you don't have no money left.... fair enough.  I guess.. I cannot even remember the previous point anymore, and can't be bothered to look back at your meandering drivel.


You might want to work on your: "originality" perhaps?


Hahaha.. yes it would.

Even children have senses of humor.  How cute.  

 


I know what you are.  A lost little puppy, and grandma is looking for you.  

Yes....

4.5 months minimum to earn the requisite minimum 120 activity points to be eligible to become full member, if any newbie member stays active with on average of about 1 post per day, and if that member also earns 100 merits during such time.

It may take many newbie members longer than 4.5 months to earn 100 merits, because it takes a while for other members to get to know such newbie members, and members will tend to merit more quality and contributory posts and sometimes will not send merits until they have seen a few good posts from newbie members... and sometimes if new members engage with other members about the topic of their post, those responsive posts are helpful and the posts are largely adding value to the thread or at least to some members who are paying attention, then the newbie member become more likely to earn merits from the attention that they had gotten from other members.

Probably, to earn merits, frequently it will help if newbie members are actually interested in the topics about which they post. Of course, having interest in the topic is not a pre-requisite, but frequently if such newbie member is interested in the topic, then they are more likely to provide value that is based on their knowledge, experience and/or excitement that might be useful to some other members, which could possibly inspire some members to send the newbie member some smerits.

P.s.  By the way, I personally tend to get turned off by any member (whether newbie or not) who refers to himself/herself in the royal "we."  Perhaps it is a pet peeve of my own in terms of not inspiring me to want to send any smerits to such a poster who uses that style of posting, even if s/he or it considers himself/herself or itself as part of a team... .. Of course, there could be exceptions of accounts that are really considered accounts of an organization rather than a person, and maybe that would be in the description of the account being an organizational account, but that just seems a bit strange to me in terms of effective ways to interact with an account in this forum and miachang's use of we:  "How we can add our avatar?"... could have been just a language/culture issue, but still kind of triggers me, personally, in a negative way.

O.k.  Thanks for the explanation that still seems a bit of a puzzle to me because I doubt that Greg would be purposefully providing convoluted or misleading information in regards to bitcoin technical analysis.  He might do so in regards to BIG blocker battles, but whatever, I don't know.

Otherwise, you are tentatively thinking that Jimmy Song's analysis adds some value in proclaiming that the coins are NOT likely to be satoshi's.

I do find some interest in some of these early blocks, and likely a lot of them are not going to be moving, yet it would seem that it could be good, even for Hal Finney's family to move some of their coins to maybe provide better security, but I am not really sure how Hal would have passed his coins down to his family, either... and maybe they feel comfortable in NOT moving those earlier coins to the extent that they have access to them?



You are on a puzzle roll.  Answer one puzzle with another puzzle, and I wonder how helpful that is...  Are we getting anywhere?  fast?

I did look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morris_Day.... but don't know how much homework I feel like doing in order to attempt to resolve your seeming puzzle proliferations.  Maybe one puzzle just keeps leading to another puzzle and we no don't get anywhere.

I would hardly characterize this whole situation as an abrupt decline.

We had a virus induced bottoming out on March 12 at $3,850, and then a halvening run to $10k without much correction... and in recent times we have been having corrections down into the $8ks - perhaps could go into the upper $7ks without much of a breakage of the short-term up, with a bit of a reliever from not quite being ready or able to break above $10k.

Sure, you are suggesting that there could be something wrong since BTC has not quite broken above $10k, and that might be true that she is getting close to accomplishing such breakage..... or maybe there could be a need to carry out a few more tests of support, and to see if any more weak hands could be shaken.. especially the halvening hype hands, which might be fun to shake some of those get rich quick folks, no? 

Lots of people do seem to be hoping for a soon and quick UP.. but also I am still not sure about how much froth might be necessary of shaking in the shitcoin space because those coins do still seem to be quite responsively hanging on to almost any bitcoin UP move, and not sure if they are worthy enough to deserve coming along with king daddy on its next ride UPpity...

To me, a week to a month bouncing between $7,800 and $10,200 seems more like a flat than it does like down or an abrupt decline, and sure if we get a few months in this area, there might develop additional anxiousness about a move one way or another.. in the meantime, tentatively, I consider our current location as a kind of flat..

wake me up when (no, I am not going to say "if") we break outside of $7,800 - $10,200.       

I know that sometimes I criticize you, Torque, for being overly conspiratorial, but I largely agree that there are some members who do end up going down this path of building trust and then abusing such trust, whether that was always the intention or that they transitioned themselves... hard to read intentions and even more difficult in the interwebs.

I will assert, though, that there are degrees of evil and levels of intent or bad intent, so in that regard, over the years, there are members whose judgement I have come to trust way more than others, and I might be willing to go down their path of logic, or even acceptance of what is going on, and give them more benefit of the doubt than others that might even cause me to change some of my actions, but at the same time, it continues to be a great practice for all members to maintain some healthy skepticism regarding other members, even of members who any of us have built decent levels of confidence over the years.

I am not going to throw the whole baby out or even start to believe everyone is against me or the whole world is out to get me... blah blah blah. 

We can presume that people are generally bad or we can presume that they are generally good, yet I doubt that a person is going to be automatically disadvantaged or opening himself/herself to be scammed merely because he generally believes that most people are good.... (except on the interwebs)

Oh my!!!!

Look at the loser who popped out of the woodwork.    

Are you regretting that you did not buy back your full stash .05BTC at $4,500-ish?  When you had a couple of opportunities to do that in March?

No, of course, not.  

You are wishing for more, and you cannot recognize a gift when you see it, which is likely to cause you to continue as a no-coiner rather than joining into having at least some quantity of coin....

yes, yes, yes... it is understandable that you are poor, especially since you have repeatedly shown that you are not really very talented at identifying value.

Never thought that would work...

Go figure.

Kids these days.

 

You are the one who made the diptwat claim that cash was dead.

Now you are moving the goal posts.

That's the punishment that I get for attempting to debate with a child.





Again... your non sequitur is making no sense...


Congratulations for your effect on yours truly.   

Yeah, diptwat craigwright and some of his swooning cronies have been trying to buy access to those kinds of wallets for a decent amount of time, and probably they would be willing to pay 10x or more of the face value just to get their greedy disingenuine scammy little mits on such a wallet, along with a NDA (non-disclosure agreement)

Well hopefully you are able to sustain ur lil selfies thru a bit of volatility, and would not be good to be investing your cashflow into king daddy.

Now if you are thinking that $15k is going to make you a millionaire, then your stash of BTC is going to need to be at least 66.666667BTC.

Situations are going to vary in terms of whether very many folks are going to consider a million to be enough fuck you money.. but of course, we have heard some members asserting that they would be fine with half a million, so whether that is short-sighted or just reasonable for their personal circumstances would be up to them to decide.

We have some other members who thought that they reached "fuck you" status before they had adequately accounted for the seemingly almost inevitable volatile nature of king daddy.

I suppose that part of my point, here, is to suggest that you need to figure out for yourself if you are betting too much on up or whether your bets on up are reasonable, and whether someone on the interwebs (hate to suggest that LFC is merely some random peeps, but truth of the matter would be that he "is"... hahahahahahahaha) asserting that BTC is going to be $15k by the end of the year is going to change your allocations or your behavior.

Probably $15k by the end of the year has higher chances than $3k by the end of the year, even though they both are $6k apart from our current hovering price in the $9k arena... but hey, to each his/her own in terms of assigning probabilities and planning accordingly in terms of his/her own circumstances including level of risk tolerance (a way of thinking about prudence) and other financial circumstances, including cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, and time, abilities and skills to research or manage his/her portfolio including trading and tweaking it from time to time.

Ok... your little puzzle hooked me, jbreher.

Who is Greg?


Another puzzle?  "Corona-Chan"  What is that?  You are trying to be funny about the chinese origin of our lil ongoing situation?  Seems to me that other places, besides China, have put their own lil signature on making a possibly bad situation worse... but hey.. difficult to call anything exactly while in the midst of it,  amirite bout dat?

you sound like you are living in a fantasy.

There are all kinds of uncertainties that exist in life.. including the uncertainties about whether satoshi's coins will ever move.  They probably won't, but sure, they could.  

Would be quite a strange turn of events if satoshi were to come back and say "bitcoin sucks" blah blah blah..  sounds like a fantasy that some ill-informed bitcoincoin naysayer, no coiner, altcoin pumpener would come up with.

Sure, anything is possible, but not a great way to plan your life around outrageous scenarios when there are way the hell more plausible scenarios...

Even though I responded strongly to your post, I was not responding strongly to you because I already understand that you tend to be a decently reasonable person, even if I might not agree with you on everything, you tend to attempt to be mostly fair...

I was largely responding with outrage at the idea...   I do think that it probably would have been better to put a note next to your suggestion, if you really did not believe it, but whatever, that might be stylistic, and maybe you wanted to cause some outrageous response from someone like me asserting that it is pure bullshit.

Another thing is that I hate to give any credibility to any scammers or shitcoins in terms of how I personally phrase things, so maybe there is some stylistic differences in the way that some of us express some of our ideas.


You are not going to find disagreement from me on this point, and sometimes also the market might have been ready for some kind of correction, since it was teetering on the doors of $10k for several days (maybe even over a week) without really being able to break above $10k... so yeah, there may have been a predisposition to having a correction, whether the moveage of the 2/2009 coins exacerbated a preexisting condition or not... but yeah, sometimes any event or news, whether real or not can cause BTC price movement that goes further and faster than it likely would have gone without such event or news.



Fair enough about these alternative theories, too.


Thanks... yes.. I am going through the Jimmy Song article now...

I am presuming that Hal is never coming back, in spite of a lot of fantasies about that.

However, let's assume for the sake of argument that Hal was not satoshi or part of satoshi's team.

Then wouldn't it be possible, and maybe even likely, that he did not know who satoshi was, either?

Again, presuming that hal finney was not satoshi or a part of satoshi (not really a light presumption), I have a kind of tentative belief that some day that something is going to leak about who was the actual satoshi... .. but maybe the actual satoshi (or team or whatever) is too much alive and too much still involved in bitcoin that it would be prudent to NOT be leaking any of that information, currently.

O.k.   So, now, you are admitting that you can use cash...



You should probably call up to grandma to send you down some milk and cookies because you are starting to go even more delirious than you had been.

Probably would be better if she just directed you to more child activities instead allowing you to free-range with adult activities (meaning computers).

Get the fuck out of here with that nonsense.

No reasonable person thought of craig wright as any kind of snowball's chance in hell possibility.

The soonest that that attention seeking narcissistic could have possibly mined any coins would have been around 2013... but probably not much before 2015.

So, the only two names batted out for that were Satoshi and hal finney... but only those two names were produced because no one has really come out and admitted to being a miner in that time frame or been outed as having had directed some of their computing power towards mining even though such software had been made available for others to try their luck at running such bitcoin mining software which may not have been very difficult for many of those computer nerds who may have been participating in those mailing lists in that time frame... but diptwat craig wright has not been proposed by anyone as any serious name.


Do you have a link to the Jimmy Song article?

I wonder where you live.

I still can use cash, for some strange reason.  Go figure.


Sure.. you can live like that if you want, and sure some people are a lost cause.  Differing perspectives concerning when that is... no problem.

No.


You seem to presume a lot regarding how viruses work and how this virus might work under some kind of supposed nonsense herd immunity theory... and yes.. it is possible that you might be right.. but I doubt it.  Odds seem to be quite highly against you from being right based on actual facts on the ground, to the extent that we know much if anything.


I will stick with my original statement, and of course rich people are going to have more options and real rich people might be able to buy islands, but still their quality of life might be jeopardized too.  Who wants to be banging hookers, but have to wait two weeks for each one to clear?  Could be quite burdensome, and they still could end up getting exposed after testing all peeps around them... it is not like the really rich can maintain complete detachment.. and still enjoy all their bells and whistle luxuries as if they were living in a bubble.  How many billions are needed to create that kind of situation, and even billionaires are frequently sucking off of various aspects of the public trough and infrastructure etc, so they are not as much in a vacuum or self-made as they like to imagine their lil mortal selfies.


I am not going to disagree with you that having bitcoin gives you more options, but it might be helpful to have some cash and some other forms of value that you can spend, too.  And sure there might be some steak suppliers who prefer cash rather than bitcoin.


Fair enough that mindrust does not set any examples, but he still might have some decent ideas from time to time, and probably he would even have better ideas if he was able to figure out a way to get reapportioned into bitcoin... perhaps somewhere in the 1% to 10% territory.. and maybe he would prefer to be in the lower ends of that kind of allocation which could be reasonable in some circumstances, perhaps, and I believe that he does not even meet the 1% territory at this time.. but yeah, partly to your point, mindrust's situation seems to remain quite a discombobulated mess, so we should be taking anything that he says with a considerably large grain of salt until he can show that he either got his shit in order or is making meaningful and significant progress in that direction.