Definitely the final game should have bigger stacks if not every tournament. 2 tables was also a bit strange. I was mentally prepared for 9 people table and than I got seated with 3 other people and then closely lost the literal first hand in the tournament. weird, it should have been 9max like a single table SNG. if that's an issue, we should try to get it fixed before the next championship. playing 4-handed off the bat doesn't seem ideal. Maybe you could setup a charity tourney on 1 of the weekdays where it's a 1000 chip buyin, 500 chips goes to the prize pool and 500 to the charity.
+1 for the charity tournament idea. more bang for your buck, and it might bring out a few people who aren't playing in the series. i'll plan to be there. |
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But imagine this, if the points started at the bottom player 1 point. Upwards from there. There would be more incentive to play in every game. The bigger the game the more the winner would get.
Seems sort of win win.
we would have to weight the top places really heavily then, otherwise it devalues the whole idea of qualifying. smoothing out the points system will increase variance and make it more of a lottery, which IMO should be avoided. it could also incentivize tight nitty play as people try to fold/sit out into higher points payouts rather than playing for the win. i'm happy with the current points system myself. the championship is like the final table of final tables. getting there should require a few strong finishes. |
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Good luck to you guys raring to beat Steve, but I wonder if he'll actually surprise everyone this time. 3 hours means I likely can't make it (family man haha). tbh i usually just donk shove in a freeroll like this. do it in the first couple blind levels and you'll usually get a couple callers. an early double/triple/quadruple up makes the tourney worth my time, good expected value. otherwise, i can close it out quickly and go hang out with the gf.  anyway, i'm registered for tomorrow and will hopefully see a few of you at the tables. good luck! |
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All of that for the purpose that national economy is destroyed as little as possible, because if you close hair salons, restaurants, all the shops (except food shops), schools, colleges, public transport, literally you cut the branch you're sitting on. That's why all countries are in a hurry to get back to normal - but of course with a lot of restrictions that should ensure that the virus spreads as little as possible. The economic cost of the Covid-19 pandemic can be proxied by GDP forgone, namely the difference between current forecasts and pre-Covid-19 outlook (dashed lines in Graph 1). Under the baseline scenario, annual output loss ranges between 5 and 9% of pre-Covid-19 estimates for the US, and between 4 and 4.5% for the global economy. In worse scenarios, these costs could reach 11% for the US and 8% for the global economy. The latest IMF (2020) forecasts released on 14 April already inch towards these scenarios, with US and global output losses in 2020 projected at 8% and 6% respectively. These costs are an order of magnitude higher than the estimated costs of previous epidemics, and exceed those during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008–09 – when OECD countries on average lost 3% of GDP per year. There are also possible long-term damages from a prolonged economic shutdown, harder to quantify but potentially significant. Bankrupt firms will make no output contribution after containment is lifted, and could disrupt supply chains of surviving firms. Unemployed workers could lose skills and long-term relationships with firms which are costly and take time to re-establish. Hardship and demoralisation could in turn have an impact on labour productivity. Experiences from past recessions suggest that these scars on the economic fabric can be deep and persistent that's what is weighing on my mind. people don't seem to understand that businesses shutting down for months can completely destroy them---this has a systemic effect on supply chains and layoffs/oversupply of labor. a recent survey of small businesses shows: that is staggering and quite scary. without bailouts, half of all small businesses would go bankrupt after "a few months" or less. it's already been 2 months! and less than half of business owners applied for the SBA relief loans, not all would be approved, and even for those who are, this is the truth: Aaron Seyedian, founder of home-cleaning company Well-Paid Maids in the Washington D.C area, received a PPP loan through online lender Kabbage after giving up on attempts through his traditional bank, Capital One. But he said the $78,000 in loan money to help pay employees doesn’t increase his business confidence. “It’s like having enough money to pay the rent for one month after losing a job. It’s just so temporary,” Seyedian said. everyone is talking like we can just "reopen" as if that means flipping on a light switch, and magically we will return to the q4 2019 economy. even if we ignore the waves of bankruptcies that are likely coming, business owners see the writing on the wall re consumer spending: Revenue has decreased in the past two months for 69% of firms, according to the CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey, with 49% indicating that sales had decreased “a lot.” Eighteen percent of small businesses say they have been able to maintain the same level of sales; only 11% indicate a recent revenue increase.
More troubling, though, is where these businesses see revenue going from here: Only 38% expect revenue to increase over the next 12 months, according to the survey, with almost an equal percentage (37%) expecting a decrease. Twenty-three percent expect revenue to remain at the same level. |
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I read this article differently. It's not that they "don't want" to undertake another round of aid. Rather, they think it might not be necessary. read between the lines. of course it's gonna be necessary. even hassett himself says we are about to see "unprecedentedly" horrible economic news over the next couple months! he's just saying this because trump and mcconnell are using the specter of "no more aid" to push democrats into accepting republican objectives like zero employer liability/workers compensation for coronavirus cases. my point is that the stock market IMO has already priced in continuing stimulus and republicans are now threatening to cut it off, which could threaten the stock market recovery you are pointing to. Meaning that they will do it if necessary. So, I see it like this: either the economy recovers with the aid already given, or they will provide more aid for it to recover. In any case the recovery is inevitable. lol, you and the stock market are living in la-la land. every single piece of data coming out says that economies are utterly collapsing all over the world, even as they reopen---the sole exceptions being tiny countries like taiwan and vietnam. the stimulus has acted as a band-aid that is clearly failing. meanwhile, USA coronavirus cases and death rates are still rising significantly and governors are saying "fuck it, we can't beat it, let's reopen anyway". people who are optimistic about this scenario---i'd like some of what they're smoking.  Regarding this article, I liked the top comment on Reddit, where it was discussed: that's the point. wuhan reopened a month ago and the domestic economy is not recovering at all. everybody keeps repeating that as soon as "the reopening" happens, consumers will start buying like never before. the actual real data shows this couldn't be further from the truth. they aren't buying now and they won't be buying later because the economy is collapsing and no one has any confidence about future income. |
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most people seem to support upping starting stacks to 5k, or otherwise don't care. personally i think it'll make games more fun and yield more action. make it so, @efialtis!  if the first couple games run too long, we could consider chopping a minute or two off the blind levels. i agree with others that the final should be deeper stacked regardless of what we do for the series. I voted too. Since the prize pool is already large, it would be okay for me to donate a part of the 200 chips per game. Wouldn't bother me. Maybe 100 chips for the prize pool and 100 chips per game for the donation pool?! If all participants agree, you can do it that way. I have sent you today 400 chips for the first 2 games this weekend. i'm open to this but i also understand if others want it all in the pot. in that case, i'll make a separate donation. i'm cool with whatever everyone else decides. i paid my 1600 chip buy-in last night and plan to go the distance. |
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Those who love to go to casino will go to casino once they opened up. A person who feel the joy playing in real casino will not be happy playing gambling alone on his personal computer. the pros and regulars will come back in search of action, but the real struggle IMO will be tourist demand. no other state in the country relies on tourism as much as nevada---it represents 20% of its GDP. "millions of tourists to virtually zero" https://www.foxnews.com/travel/las-vegas-coronavirus-tourists-zeroit's gonna be a long time before people feel safe flying in/out of vegas and rubbing shoulders at table games and poker tables again. and that's a damn shame---live gaming is way more fun than online, i'll be the first to acknowledge that. but i dunno when it will feel safe again. live gamblers (vs online) skew older too, lots of 50+ and retiree casino gamblers. the coronavirus's disproportionate impact on older populations may be relevant there. |
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I think you're overreacting. The drop in GDP is due to the closure of most shops, air transport and tourism.
Yes, there will be drawdowns in the economy and they will be quite noticeable. But how quickly it all started - so quickly everything will recover, I believe. i don't mean to be a downer, but this could go on for years. since there is no vaccine or herd immunity, experts are expecting cases to rise again after reopening---not to mention during the winter flu season. are you gonna feel safe flying in airplanes, eating in restaurants/bars, shopping often? lots of people won't. and then you have the economic damage: so many people will be broke (and unemployed) after this, not spending money. as abhiseshakana points out, consumer spending is vital to the american economy. it accounts for something like 70% of all economic activity. without a miracle treatment/vaccine, i don't see a quick recovery happening.  |
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here's a cooler from earlier today, midway into a MTT: 9-handed, Blinds 125/250
UTG: Villain (9,015 in chips)
MP1: Hero (10,203 in chips)
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Qs Qd]
Villain calls 250
Hero raises 1,250 to 1,250
Villain raises 1,500 to 2,750
Hero calls 1,500
*** FLOP *** [td 5d 9h]
Villain bets 6,240 and is all-in
Hero calls 6,240
*** TURN *** [td 5d 9h] [7d]
*** RIVER *** [td 5d 9h 7d] [4s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Villain shows [Ac Ad] (a pair of Aces)
Hero shows [Qs Qd] (a pair of Queens)
Villain collected 18,555 from pot was it possible to get away from this hand? could you have folded that flop? his limp-3bet suggested maybe he had a monster but i know this player to lean towards the aggressive side and assumed a wider range than just KK/AA. i think this was just bad luck being dealt a cooler, but......thoughts? |
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So I was in a similar spot today, and after playing it out to me after I see where I misread the situation and again couldn't walk away from QQ pre. I probably still shouldn't have but you never know.
To me The Villain-2 choice to call and not try and isolate is a lure, he's giving good odds to come along or the illusion you can put him off the hand by jamming. Sometimes inexperienced players also do this, so it's tough to say which they are without playing a while with them. Personally in this spot I am probably going to want to jam pre... but I'm trying to get away from that especially if you can see a flop in position. I would call and evaluate afterwards, as you said you would still have 26BB behind and could choose to check jam or bet jam, or worst case walk away and wait for a better spot. Not just because of the UTG possibly bating, and not likely to fold for the rest of your stack, but the BB jamming into both of you suggests a pocket pair maybe the same hand as yourself.
i had never seen either player before and tbh didn't have 100% attention on the table. villain 1 i put on some generic range like 99+, AQ+, maybe some suited connectors like QJs+, possibly a total donk shove. the flat from villain 2 felt weak and he seemed to be giving me proper odds, so i called. 922 rainbow flop. villain 2 donk bets, i jammed (regretting it even before i did it), he calls and shows KK. villain 1 shows AA. lol....... i definitely felt committed postflop, probably should have walked away. |
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Hey you really did well especially the way you and foma came back strong. It was an honor to play with you all. We all did really well. Hopefully in the 2nd series we will meet each others again. Enjoy your evening brother.
You guys did well as well, especially FOMA. good game dude. i kinda melted down when we were heads up---just couldn't hit a flop, and you kept calling my bluffs. oh well, second place, i'll take it. i hope to see you all next weekend for the new series! https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5245365.0 |
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And what does everyone think about a more top heavy points structure 15-12-10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1? Helps the guys in the midfield separate from each other if they manage to get a more than decent finish. Also helps with reducing ties, makes comebacks possible right until the last round, and missing out on one or two games won't hurt you that much if you think you can finish ITM a few times.
Please consider the players at the bottom. its really depressing to have 0 points. even the odd point would be an ego boost for us. Why not make a system that rewards every player? lol, boost your ego by winning some hands and taking down a tourney. this is poker, not a pity party! that said, i have mixed feelings about changing the points structure. my brain is a little fried at the moment and i'm not certain how would it affect variance overall. i need to see some other opinions. |
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I am out as well at 13th place.
I was calling in all my chips at the end and everyone thought I was bluffing.
But I had good pairs all the time so took shot everytime. i thought maybe you were on tilt after that 2 pair vs straight hand with me. this huge shove on the river probably solidified that bluffing image.  i saw a couple nasty suckouts today but still in the middle of the pack with 11 runners left. tyKiwanuka with a decent chip lead for now. |
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A selfish decision coming from a selfish mayor of a huge city. she is between a rock and a hard place. protests against the stay-home orders have been growing in las vegas and throughout the state for weeks. the real problem that protestors and the mayor don't understand is this: who the heck is booking flights to vegas, and going out to casinos, shows, and restaurants right now? when vegas reopens, is anyone gonna show up? i'll be sticking to online poker for a while. |
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Well, Biden is under quite some pressure now and the Republicans/Trump haven't even started to fire yet Let's see, if they will do, because Trump has his own history of sexual allegations. If not before already, this should be the point where it finally dawns on the Democrats, that they won't take over the White House with him as nominee. never say never. everyone thought trump was toast after the "grab em by the pussy" saga. look where we are now! if the economy tanks into the election, people aren't gonna be loving trump. I expect the Republicans to be all over these accusations (at a later point) and the way Biden addressed this issue today was really pathetic and didn't give the impression of him being innocent. it didn't take long for republicans to pile on about the sexual misconduct allegations. check out trump's latest campaign ad: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/05/01/trump_campaign_ad_hits_biden_on_tara_reade_allegation_believe_all_women.htmlthe odds i'm seeing: trump 48% to win biden 41% to win https://odds.watch/trump-2020a lot can change in 5-6 months though, especially in this pandemic atmosphere. i truly wonder if another democrat might emerge, if only because of biden's apparent health issues. |
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in the states, it all comes down to the 2020 election IMO. obama increased taxes within a couple weeks of taking office. pollsters give democrats a 55% chance of winning both the white house and senate. that would give them both houses and the presidency---free reign to have a spending and tax hike party. according to a trump economic advisor: "The liquidity and cash phase is coming to an end," White House National Economic Council director Larry Kudlow cautioned in recent days. He signaled a return to the president's pre-pandemic agenda, including tax-cuts and infrastructure investment. under trump, no more coronavirus relief, and a return to tax cuts? |
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What is BIG BTC Ticket btw? it's a monthly 0.75 BTC guaranteed tournament with a 0.01 BTC buy-in. this is the next one on may 31st: https://play.swcpoker.eu/?tournamentId=43583277I wish you can make it more earlier to 3PM GMT for the start time, so people in asia like me can join  it's sorta early for me, sorta late for you. i guess our world revolves around the euro players. |
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Personally I wouldn't be 3-betting TT/JJ especially if I'm going to be OOP like SB or BB. in early position i'm usually raising first in and flatting a 3-bet, and calling from the blinds. in late position, i definitely prefer 3-betting to get marginal callers out of the pot. (or just steal it) UTG+1 leads 2BB, I call from Cutoff with QQ, and the BB calls.
Flop is 8,9,Q rainbow - Original raiser checks and I bet out 3BB into a pot of roughly 8BB, BB raises to 9BB, original raiser folds. Now there isn't a flush draw out there but I don't like the idea of seeing any more cards for a chance to get to the straight, so I elect to fast play this hand sitting with top set. Jam all in and he calls. Runout didn't help.
FFS he shows TJ off. Reasonable call from BB given the price, so that's why I feel I might have benefited from a 3-bet pre. absolutely, that's a perfect example of why i like to 3-bet, especially a monster like QQ---it weighs the odds of those marginal calls in my favor. here's a hand from earlier today. 9max tournament, but only 6 seated at the table. 50/100 blinds. CO: Hero (5,574 in chips) SB: Villain 1 (2,990 in chips) UTG: Villain 2 (9,590 in chips) *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Hero [Kh Ah] Villain 2 raises 200 to 200 Hero raises 800 to 800 Villain 1 raises 2,880 to 2,980 and is all-in Villain 2 calls 2,780 Hero? a call would leave me 26 big blinds left with ~9k chips in the pot. AKs 6-handed is a tough fold, but what do you make of the preflop action? |
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a BIG BTC ticket added on top---very nice! SwC Poker has been really generous to the forum lately. i'm gonna try to play every game in the series this time. fortunately they are early enough in the morning that i don't need to sacrifice the whole day during these beautiful springtime weekends. we're talking about the possibility of bigger starting stacks in the qualifiers. chime in here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5217547.msg54348854#msg54348854Efialtis, what about at least one non-hold'em event?
Maybe OE (Omaha Hi/Lo + Stud Hi/Lo) or Badeucy ?
500 chips buy-in.
an OE side game might be fun for kicks, but including it in the series would be terrible for my equity. |
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