you seem to be arguing that the over production of plastics is not a problem, and sure there is some reuse of plastics that go on, but even if you use them a few times, there still ends up being a shitload of them and you can only use them so much before they become soiled, torn or even somewhat denigrating from likely poor quality, anyhow.

Surely, there was good intentions behind some of the reuse movement but surely that reuse does not make very much sense in times of the virus and times in which we need to be more careful about germs. 

Of course, during regular times, germ exposure will generally make us stronger at least until we get really old then we cannot tolerate germs as much, but in normal times, we should be a bit questioning of germ phobic people who are overly cleaning and some times causing their own issues, similar to the overuse of antibiotics for every little thing and then not using the full course of treatment. 

We can concede that these are not normal times, when trying to temper the impact of a virus... so  a lot of the normal rules might have to be changed and even the justifications are going to need to be reconsidered, at the least... does not mean that the old rules were wrong, just that there is a specific ongoing emergency problematic situation that is still in progress, sad as that may be...

Huh?  A flat period for several months does not mean that the halvening is priced in.

We already know from experience that it could take several months before the BTC price goes upwards after this halvening as it did in previous halvenings.... A lot of those dynamics do not have much if anything to do with whether the halvening is priced in or not, just a matter of attempts to keep the BTC price down as low and for as long as possible, which ends up taking a while to play out in such a way that the reduced new supply contributes to continuing upwards pressures on BTC prices, including new people coming into bitcoin and including a lot of people neither understanding what the halvening is, including new people coming into bitcoin who cannot even understand what the halvening is because they do not even know what bitcoin is.  So, in that regard, it becomes very difficult to price anything in, if it is not understood.







There is not a need for down before up, even though it could happen, and sure the farther down we go, the lower the probabilities, so we could predict sub $1k which would be less probable than sub $2k which is less probable than sub $3k, etc etc etc.

Same with the other direction.  We could go above $10k in the coming weeks or it could take a few years, but seems more likely that supra $10k is going to happen at some point in 2020, but just remains unclear about if such supra $10k will become sustainable at some point whether we are talking 2020, 2021 or perhaps later.


Likely macro uncertainty factors have more to do with downward pressures or feelings for liquidity rather than any one event, such as the halvening.


Really comes off as SOMA when you are throwing LTC experience into the mix, which is almost completely irrelevant in regards to what BTC is going to do.  Sure, past BTC halvenings are likely to be relevant.


Great.... HODLing is a good idea  whether we go sideways or down.. or up.


I doubt that we are limited to $7k and $9k as our current consolidation range, and I am questioning if that is even a reasonable range since it seems to presume that $9.4k is not sustainable.. which I suppose is the theme of the week.

FTFY



Hairy - turning back into a bearie.




You see what I am talking about.    

I think that talk of home defense has more to do with the macro circumstances, and could even relate to defending your bitcoins when they go shooting up in price, while the remainder of supply chains might have issues.  

Of course, hopefully no one knows that you have bitcoins; however, if you are the only one on the block with full cupboards and eating steaks, then some other peeps might wonder why you are living so well, or maybe want to get some of yours.

Sure, we even saw in recent times, that sometimes the police might not be responding to certain kinds of calls, so what you going to do?  You gotta at least attempt to discourage their entrance until the proper authorities might handle it, maybe it takes 12 hours or even longer, such as a few days before they show up?  basic protections could come in handy... specially in 'merica.




I remember Bob had some different purchases and those may have all been handguns,  and I am not sure if any of those were recent acquisitions or if someone like him would have been rethinking his own situation in recent times and changing the kinds of armor that he would have available.  

Of course, if any of us has a bit of space, such as a ranch, then we might have cameras that might warn us, but then gosh bunkers  or even contracting out security might be the kind of pre-citadel stage, and I suppose that I am thinking more about security through obscurity - so a bit smaller scenarios...

But if we get to certain higher levels of hookers, lambos and blow then we might have to consider BIGGER options, and maybe even contracting out some of the security, and those additional considerations .. and sometimes involving security guards can become problematic too, if they turn on you or you cannot determine if they are working with you or against you, and such largess did not work out too well for John McAfee, but then he was in another country with its own level of corruption where the whole system ended up working against him (at least from his version of events).

I was thinking that a 12 gauge was a bit bulky... and does not hold very many shots...  maybe 5 shells for standard, but I suppose there could be some with extended magazines, and maybe there would not be a need for more than one or two shells in terms of hitting the target.   

Surely, this could be one of those "why not both" situations.  I will ponder a 12 gauge as a supplement, but in terms of hitting a virus.. maybe a 12 gauge could hit a virus a bit better than a 9 mm, too?

Hopefully that top gulfer does not have any problem with that little bump that is in front of his swing. 

Well from my understanding if anyone has your phone number and your account number then they can swap your sim.

That means that they get issued a new sim that has your phone number, and all of a sudden your phone is not working anymore.

So when they get a text message to reset the password to whatever email service you have or whatever other location that they are seeking access, such as bank account or apple.com or some exchange that they know you use, then they can reset any of those passwords.  The e-mail is one of the sensitive ones because maybe you use an email to log into an exchange or some other service, and then they already know your log in name and your e-mail.  But maybe they do not know all the exchanges that you use, but when they get access to your email then they scan through your e-mails that are stored in the account and they find various services that you use and maybe your log in name and maybe even some transactions that you have made in the past.  So then they have more information to make more attacks that might lead them to more information... so maybe they do not give any shits about stealing your credit card information, but once they log into that account then maybe they will find out another e-mail that you use or they might find your mother's maiden name or they might find your address or social security number, so then at that point they have more information about you that they can use in other locations or even to call up and manually change something like your phone account or even getting into your phone account that you happen to log into ono line... and maybe they will not attack any of these until they have many of their ducks in a row so that they can attack them all at once, once they start attacking they can do it more quickly before you notice, and surely with bitcoin (or some other cryptos), they can fuck you up (drain your accounts or otherwise) in a matter of minutes (after getting into such accounts)..

Surely, even if Buffet is not a believer in bitcoin, we should be giving him credit for attempting to consistently follow a long term strategy within any of his investments, so anything bought today needs to have a long timeline before contemplating selling it.

Of course, with bitcoin we have been seeing buyers who have been able to get through 1 or 2 cycles, and to be able to cash out fairly BIGGLY - but at the same time, even those of us who have been in bitcoin for a long time, have gone through periods of seemingly extensive down that causes us to question our BTC convictions.

Sure, go ahead and buy some BTC today.


Maybe it will appreciate in price, and maybe it will take 4-6 years or maybe even as long as Warren Buffet suggests to be the considered timeline that goes up to close to 20 years?

In real life, I do become quite hesitant to recommend people to buy into BTC when they seem to have a time horizon that is less than a few years, but if they have 4-6 years, then I don't have too many problems making BTC recommendations to them but at the same time, I am always shirking any responsibility for their investment, so I have noticed that people in real life sometimes gather, from my shirking of responsibility regarding the BTC investment, that I am not recommending BTC with enough passion....   hahahahahaha  Sucks to be them.   

Remember that the sims swapping vulnerabilities are not completely a password issue because once a hacker is able to swap sims, then they can reset any password that you have.

Of course, there is a bit of a chicken and egg, here because they have to somehow get into your phone account and usually that would be by having access to something in which you had used to secure your phone account, such as an email... and some of the phone companies seem to be becoming more sensitive to ensuring your security, but sims swapping does seem to continue to be a pretty BIG vulnerability area, especially in the USA, where I believe that there is a bit more laxness in terms of laws that require phone companies to allow people to swap their phones.. but then those seemingly lax procedures are used by hackers (criminals).

What does that mean?

Let me speculate.  It means that you are planning to sell BTC in the near future because you are expecting a kind of upward BTC price movement and then waiting for some kind of BTC price correction in order that you can buy back (and presumably get more BTC)?

By the way, we are coming upon our third BTC halvening in 8-9 days... the second BTC halvening was in July 2016. You know that, right?

9mm seems the most reasonable out of the small ones, no?

I mean if you are using it for home defense or maybe self defense (or maybe wanting to be a hero in some mass shooting situation?)


Yeah, I am not referring to shooting viruses, but instead preparing for people going crazy and just trying to make sure that you are safe.

I am more into home protection than carrying a gun in the wild, because it seems a bit unclear how likely it would be to end up in one of those situations in which I might be able to be more help than harm.... I am not 100% resolved on this, because it seems that in recent times, in 'merica, part of the incentive to get/maintain a weapon (or to carry one) is based on so many other people acquiring such weapons.


Prison seems to be no where that anyone should want to be in times of a virus.

The state does not seem to be very sympathetic to prisoners (guards, either for that matter).

They changed the design of the rocket..... I suppose that makes sense.  1228 Blocks remaining, as I type.


https://www.thehalvening.com/

Did that happen in regards to Marcus?  How do you know becoin?  I really doubt that marcus would sell a large portion of his BTC stash preparing for down, even though I would NOT presume that he did not sell some.

I am sure that some regular members, here, sold higher amounts of Bitcoin than they would like to admit in the thread because they realize that they might have been gambling a bit much in regards to the level of down that they were anticipating that in the end might not happen.

I doubt that Marcus went full fiat, but I would not put it past any member here to have made the mistake of overly preparing for down... meaning selling more in preparation for down and causing themselves to be inadequately prepared for UP (and the UP that we ended up experiencing in recent weeks).

Around March 23-24-ish, I made a decision to sell slightly more BTC in the $7k to $8,500 price range in order to be better prepared for the possibility of going below $3k.  Here is a link to a post in which I describe some of my contemplations in that regard.  I probably have a few more subsequent posts that were related to the topic that came after this linked referenced post.

In essence, my recollection is that at that time, I felt that I was inadequately prepared for the possibility of sub $3k prices, and even the drop from $7,200-ish to $3,850 on March12 caused me to buy a bit less bitcoins in the $4ks because I was somewhat hoarding some of my cash and really did not feel that I had much of any cash left in the event that BTC were to go sub $3k.  So, ultimately, after some thought between March 12 and March 23-ish, I considered meaningful adjustments, and I executed on that decision by tweaking my buy/sell orders.

After March 23/24, the BTC price mostly did not correct (so far), and so I ended up selling a bit more than I otherwise would have.  Of course, if the BTC price had gone down, after that date, then the flow of fiat and BTC in my portfolio would have played out a bit differently, yet I do not regret my decision, at all.  

I implemented incremental increases in my BTC sales, so instead of buying back more BTC than I sold (that I had been doing since about mid-2019 - and likely previous to that, too), I was selling a little bit BTC more than I bought back in the $7k to $8,500 price range, and which largely meant that part of any fiat proceeds from sales that were made from those BTC sales in that $7k to $8,500 price range  were allocated towards buy back in the lower $3ks, which would thereby free up some fiat that I have off-exchanges that could be dedicated to the possibility of BTC prices going below $3k, which I was thinking that would largely be assigned between $2k and $3k, but maybe I would spread it down a bit more, and then likely I would run out of money that I would be willing to dedicate to further BTC sales, unless the BTC price remained in those lower price ranges, then new cash flow could be used for old school regular DCA-ing.

Anyhow, it is seeming quite likely that my preparations might have been for naught, but I do not feel bad about it at all.  In the end, it is only a few percentage of what I would have otherwise done, and all of that provides a kind of just in case the shit hits the fan, insurance.

By the way, after going above $8,500 in the past few days, it seems to me that my buy/sell BTC orders have largely reverted back to a situation of what they had been prior to my March 23/24 "emergency" tweakenings of my plan and my attempt to execute upon those tweakenings based on the subsequent BTC price movements, which we saw ended up largely playing out to the upside after that "emergency" (somewhat) change of plans/past practices.

You made those graphs yourself, kellrobinson - or did you get them from somewhere?

It's a tentative working hypothesis, and of course, the extent to which such conjecture plays out may depend NOT only on BTC price (quantity) but also upon time (how long does it take to get there, aka momentum).  Another factor surely would be considering the performance of relative asset classes, too... I don't expect much performance from gold or equities, but hey, we cannot really know specifics of so many things.

Exactamente, bahai!!!!!!


"We" tend to feel badly when we see pre-coiners chasing the train or trying to catch our rocket... It's not a good feeling, even when seeing it.

No coiners, on the other hand, "we" might not have as much sympathy for those folks when we see them finally chasing the train/rocket... but I expect we should not be seeing them until around supra $30k.

I recall that you had the same problem at $7,880.

At this pace, you might not be able to acquire any BTC, if you sold all of your BTC and you are not able to get it back because you continue to sell too much too early and then wait for BTC prices to go down, that does not end up coming.


For ease of reference, below is a copy of my responses to a couple of your earlier posts (from a few days ago), in which you seemed to have been left behind in your retroactive thinking (and failure to act behaviors), there, too.... Coincidence, or no?   


Must suck to be you?  And, maybe sooner or later you will learn to stop waiting for the BTC price to drop and just buy on a regular basis, so you do not have to run after the train (or is it a rocket, which I heard is more difficult to catch?) and miss out on $1k or more pumpenings.  

I was pulling your leg.

Of course, I recognize you - even if you are not posting in these here parts, regularly.

There are some members who post even less frequently in this thread than you, such as once or twice a year, yet still such members may well be recognized when they show up.

Regarding the price action, I am not going to complain, even if it is happening on a Saturday... and seemingly a bit much.. but bitcoin tends to surprise us on a fairly regular basis... so no need to be surprised by surprises.   

I was just attempting to make the statement a bit less ambiguous for the newbies.





Even though I do not whole-heartedly buy into fractal comparisons, Hairy's overlays have tended to be pretty good in terms of their showing where we are at, and whether we are above or below the place that we would have been at the same time in the previous 4-year cycle.

Accordingly, I read this particular overlay as showing that currently we are quite a bit below the place that we would have been at in the previous cycle.. so the previous cycle is showing that we experienced the Covid correction at the same time that we had experienced the May 2016 memorial pump (from $400-ish to $750-ish but then later further pumpenings were delayed in August 2016 due to the death of bitcoin that was purportedly coming due to the bitfinex hack.

So currently, sure the Covid could possibly keep the bitcoin price down for a decent amount of time.. below the curve, but probably largely signaling that it would be a good time to buy BTC, rather than any assertions that BTC is overpriced... but surely, I would accept any proposition that there are macro-reasons why BTC prices should be more suppressed now than 2016 - even though those macro-reasons continue to be questionable in terms of whether they can really keep the BTC price down - given bitcoin's fundamentals and the money printer go bbbbbbbrrrrrrrr practices seem to contribute bullishly to bitcoin's use case rather than detracting from it like those peeps who are continuing to proclaim that bitcoin is likely to go down with the shipn (or at least negatively affected along side with the other house of cards charades).  




Yes.  I have noticed that you have been somewhat negatively affected by covid.  You need a dose of bleach or something to perk you up a bit.   You will thank me later.  


I must say:  A bit premature, in terms of usual weekend happenings.


Are you new here?
 


This is bitcoin.... aka #corn.

FTFY