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10861  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: July 06, 2012, 10:53:49 PM
Quote
Results: 2012-Jul-06 03:22pm (up to block 187853)

   Address   Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |    BTC In    |   BTC Out    |    Profit    |   RTP 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p        1      0.00002 |     6757 |      0 (0.00000) |   6500 |     257 |        24.71 |         0.01 |        24.69 |   0.078
 1dice1Qf4        2      0.00003 |      911 |      0 (0.00000) |    843 |      68 |         7.26 |         0.00 |         7.26 |   0.024
 1dice2pxm        4      0.00006 |     1436 |      0 (0.00000) |   1406 |      30 |        12.45 |         0.00 |        12.44 |   0.045
 1dice2vQo        8      0.00012 |     1178 |      0 (0.00000) |   1140 |      38 |        15.94 |         0.00 |        15.94 |   0.030
 1dice2WmR       16      0.00024 |     1385 |      0 (0.00000) |   1357 |      28 |        21.54 |         0.01 |        21.53 |   0.076
 1dice2xkj       32      0.00049 |     3161 |      1 (0.00032) |   3149 |      11 |        91.22 |       100.38 |        -9.15 | 110.032
 1dice2zdo       64      0.00098 |     4536 |      5 (0.00111) |   4514 |      17 |       178.20 |       110.74 |        67.45 |  62.147
 1dice37Ee      128      0.00195 |     5973 |     12 (0.00202) |   5914 |      47 |      1212.23 |      1142.22 |        70.01 |  94.224
 1dice3jkp      256      0.00391 |     4433 |     21 (0.00475) |   4400 |      12 |       462.72 |       331.92 |       130.79 |  71.733
 1dice4J1m      512      0.00781 |     5651 |     33 (0.00584) |   5613 |       5 |       771.25 |       331.04 |       440.21 |  42.923
 1dice5wwE     1000      0.01526 |     7176 |     96 (0.01338) |   7077 |       2 |      1441.16 |       746.95 |       694.20 |  51.830
 1dice61SN     1500      0.02289 |     5744 |    127 (0.02213) |   5611 |       6 |      2315.04 |      2549.07 |      -234.03 | 110.109
 1dice6DPt     2000      0.03052 |     5938 |    181 (0.03050) |   5754 |       3 |      1857.41 |      1740.75 |       116.66 |  93.719
 1dice6gJg     3000      0.04578 |     6027 |    296 (0.04917) |   5724 |       7 |      4196.45 |      5317.58 |     -1121.13 | 126.716
 1dice6GV5     4000      0.06104 |     5902 |    366 (0.06204) |   5533 |       3 |      1671.65 |      1510.12 |       161.53 |  90.337
 1dice6wBx     6000      0.09155 |    10170 |    949 (0.09335) |   9217 |       4 |      6561.67 |      6935.97 |      -374.29 | 105.704
 1dice6YgE     8000      0.12207 |    14124 |   1731 (0.12257) |  12392 |       0 |      3263.58 |      2829.73 |       433.85 |  86.706
 1dice7EYz    12000      0.18311 |    15038 |   2869 (0.19087) |  12162 |       5 |      6196.77 |      6487.88 |      -291.11 | 104.698
 1dice7fUk    16000      0.24414 |    36902 |   8938 (0.24225) |  27958 |       6 |      9593.53 |      9106.52 |       487.01 |  94.924
 1dice7W2A    24000      0.36621 |    25612 |   9452 (0.36951) |  16128 |      31 |     11773.25 |     11840.04 |       -66.78 | 100.567
 1dice8EMZ    32000      0.48828 |   278761 | 135746 (0.48718) | 142891 |     121 |     83022.22 |     84420.19 |     -1397.97 | 101.684
 1dice97EC    32768      0.50000 |   111753 |  55834 (0.49991) |  55853 |      65 |     40377.40 |     39202.09 |      1175.30 |  97.089
 1dice9wcM    48000      0.73242 |    68104 |  50039 (0.73512) |  18030 |      35 |     39537.99 |     38150.71 |      1387.27 |  96.491
 1dice9wVt    64000      0.97656 |     5697 |   4598 (0.97457) |    120 |     978 |      4901.49 |      4709.70 |       191.79 |  96.087
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 |   632369 |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cumulative Wagers:             223736.59717931 BTC
Cumulative Rewards:            221791.09725092 BTC
Cumulative Fees Paid:             318.22992500 BTC
Cumulative Unreturned:              1.99700000 BTC
----
SD Profit on Completed Bets :      1625.27300339 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  1853276  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1178231  (63.6%)
Blockchain MB:  784.7  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 479.9  (61.2%)

Note that the profit is almost up to what would be expected if the house had a 1% house edge all along:


10862  Economy / Gambling / Re: StrikeSapphire: NEW $0.50 Hourly Freerolls + 15 BTC Weekend Leaderboard is back! on: July 06, 2012, 08:15:38 PM
What Dooglus means is that StrikeSapphire takes some measures to prevent poker collusion, which includes preventing players who share IP addresses from sitting at the same tables.

It looks like the measures against players sharing IP addresses are no longer working.  Did you relax the rule, or is it a bug?
10863  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A Business Primer on the Bitcoin Ecosystem - Erik Voorhees on: July 06, 2012, 09:01:50 AM
2) "Oh, they won't change their mind anyway, so let's skip this little detail right here and insert this little factually incorrect statement over there..."

See also http://evoorhees.blogspot.ca/2012/04/bitcoin-libertarian-introduction.html:

Quote
You only need to back up the wallet file once at the beginning (you don't need to do it every day or week, etc)

I'd much rather see true statements than comfortable ones when having to chose between the two.
10864  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A Business Primer on the Bitcoin Ecosystem - Erik Voorhees on: July 06, 2012, 08:51:07 AM
quick clarification: HTML is not a protocol

... and neither is VoIP.
10865  Economy / Gambling / Re: SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game on: July 06, 2012, 08:42:35 AM
http://www.satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=5c6d959aabfe86ca4796c5fb521f8182f4b646f9817de508b7554d14ad5f097e

Ouch!  The only 100 BTC bet of the last few days, and it loses.

Also, the only other >50 BTC bets of the last few days.  Also all losers:

http://www.satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=92a009d8c72e18c658d3fe7229753f39a7eb56d9ee3cf73ee119098075f852cf
http://www.satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=96536db3e4fcc18061e7cdbbbafa0e88ca56f3a7b8347acaca426017c047b232
http://www.satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=3d95756aebdccc095aae29a14e1f326ed5a1fff21c784fc2c4b7e09ac0ab5e9c


It's been a good few days for satoshidice!
10866  Economy / Gambling / Re: SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game on: July 06, 2012, 08:32:46 AM
Is it known how much money is bet on satoshidice per day?

I pulled the following from the blockchain.

That's a total of 221k BTC bet on satoshidice so far, and currently around 10 or 15k BTC per week is being bet:

10867  Other / Off-topic / Re: Let's Count to 21 Million with Images on: July 06, 2012, 04:39:35 AM
10868  Other / Off-topic / Re: Let's Count to 21 Million with Images on: July 06, 2012, 04:38:08 AM
10869  Economy / Gambling / Re: SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game on: July 06, 2012, 04:34:23 AM
It turns out the bitcoinica coins have been played on satoshidice recently too:

http://blockchain.info/tx-index/5484758 shows the bitcoinica haul being split up into amounts of 2600.

The 3rd output, http://blockchain.info/tx-index/5489226, is the "expect mass leak soon" message, ascii encoded in a transaction's values.
The 2nd output, http://blockchain.info/tx-index/7915029, has lots of inputs from 1FLo9g9AZ7Up1tgLv4xyx8xvAKiGGhAi6p, which was used recently for a series of high-stake satoshidice bets:

http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=1FLo9g9AZ7Up1tgLv4xyx8xvAKiGGhAi6p

31 bets.
Total stake:  303 BTC
Total return: 299.51723327 BTC

A loss of 1.15%.
10870  Economy / Gambling / Re: StrikeSapphire: NEW $0.50 Hourly Freerolls + 15 BTC Weekend Leaderboard is back! on: July 06, 2012, 03:58:38 AM
My gf and i love going in a free tournament.

I hope you don't share the same IP address, or live in the same province as each other!  Wink
10871  Economy / Gambling / Re: SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game on: July 06, 2012, 03:57:01 AM
Does anyone know anything about these addresses?

Quote
1BTCDicebUVG6Bv4NrWymiENvUyk8NF52N
1BTCDicexyM43Sivo83gMsRqARK6LPm895
1BTCDiceMN9eP1CjKbFFfQcPVj7KeAV1kA

I see them in transactions which also have an output worth 0.0054321, which is a value SatoshiDice uses to set the payment address.  I also see a payment to one of these addresses from 1FLo9g9AZ7Up1tgLv4xyx8xvAKiGGhAi6p, which I think is one of the addresses associated with the most recent Bitcoinica theft.

Are these addresses from a SatoshiDice clone?  Or SatshiDice testing addresses?

http://blockchain.info/address/1BTCDiceMN9eP1CjKbFFfQcPVj7KeAV1kA :

10872  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: July 05, 2012, 08:13:45 PM
Quote
Results: 2012-Jul-05 12:41pm (up to block 187680)

   Address   Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |    BTC In    |   BTC Out    |    Profit    |   RTP 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p        1      0.00002 |     6453 |      0 (0.00000) |   6196 |     257 |        22.70 |         0.01 |        22.68 |   0.085
 1dice1Qf4        2      0.00003 |      901 |      0 (0.00000) |    834 |      67 |         7.23 |         0.00 |         7.22 |   0.024
 1dice2pxm        4      0.00006 |     1414 |      0 (0.00000) |   1384 |      30 |        12.30 |         0.00 |        12.30 |   0.046
 1dice2vQo        8      0.00012 |     1155 |      0 (0.00000) |   1117 |      38 |        15.78 |         0.00 |        15.77 |   0.030
 1dice2WmR       16      0.00024 |     1372 |      0 (0.00000) |   1344 |      28 |        21.50 |         0.01 |        21.48 |   0.076
 1dice2xkj       32      0.00049 |     3141 |      1 (0.00032) |   3129 |      11 |        91.02 |       100.38 |        -9.35 | 110.276
 1dice2zdo       64      0.00098 |     4520 |      5 (0.00111) |   4498 |      17 |       178.02 |       110.74 |        67.28 |  62.208
 1dice37Ee      128      0.00195 |     5953 |     12 (0.00203) |   5894 |      47 |      1211.08 |      1142.21 |        68.86 |  94.314
 1dice3jkp      256      0.00391 |     4419 |     20 (0.00454) |   4387 |      12 |       462.01 |       330.69 |       131.32 |  71.576
 1dice4J1m      512      0.00781 |     5622 |     32 (0.00570) |   5585 |       5 |       769.88 |       330.67 |       439.21 |  42.951
 1dice5wwE     1000      0.01526 |     6980 |     95 (0.01362) |   6882 |       2 |      1434.36 |       746.87 |       687.49 |  52.070
 1dice61SN     1500      0.02289 |     5722 |    125 (0.02187) |   5591 |       6 |      2312.58 |      2548.64 |      -236.06 | 110.208
 1dice6DPt     2000      0.03052 |     5841 |    180 (0.03083) |   5658 |       3 |      1849.04 |      1740.25 |       108.79 |  94.116
 1dice6gJg     3000      0.04578 |     5930 |    296 (0.04997) |   5627 |       7 |      4187.34 |      5317.57 |     -1130.22 | 126.991
 1dice6GV5     4000      0.06104 |     5838 |    365 (0.06255) |   5470 |       3 |      1643.96 |      1509.06 |       134.90 |  91.794
 1dice6wBx     6000      0.09155 |    10107 |    942 (0.09324) |   9161 |       4 |      6542.74 |      6934.11 |      -391.37 | 105.982
 1dice6YgE     8000      0.12207 |    12767 |   1558 (0.12203) |  11209 |       0 |      3051.56 |      2668.70 |       382.86 |  87.454
 1dice7EYz    12000      0.18311 |    14987 |   2859 (0.19085) |  12121 |       5 |      6048.12 |      6430.64 |      -382.52 | 106.325
 1dice7fUk    16000      0.24414 |    36604 |   8871 (0.24239) |  27727 |       6 |      9290.29 |      9018.05 |       272.24 |  97.070
 1dice7W2A    24000      0.36621 |    25173 |   9270 (0.36871) |  15872 |      30 |     11157.77 |     11382.89 |      -225.12 | 102.018
 1dice8EMZ    32000      0.48828 |   277183 | 134987 (0.48721) | 142074 |     121 |     82385.78 |     83902.06 |     -1516.27 | 101.840
 1dice97EC    32768      0.50000 |   109756 |  54795 (0.49954) |  54895 |      65 |     38539.38 |     37612.67 |       926.70 |  97.595
 1dice9wcM    48000      0.73242 |    67585 |  49649 (0.73500) |  17901 |      35 |     38852.41 |     37421.81 |      1430.60 |  96.318
 1dice9wVt    64000      0.97656 |     5695 |   4598 (0.97457) |    120 |     976 |      4901.49 |      4709.70 |       191.79 |  96.087
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 |   625118 |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cumulative Wagers:             219217.47210252 BTC
Cumulative Rewards:            218185.09823143 BTC
Cumulative Fees Paid:             314.58460000 BTC
Cumulative Unreturned:              1.76000000 BTC
----
SD Profit on Completed Bets :       716.02927109 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  1827797  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1165307  (63.8%)
Blockchain MB:  773.9  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 474.7  (61.3%)


10873  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: July 05, 2012, 12:59:17 AM
Small bets are very profitable.  Big bets are very expensive.

Since I wrote that, the effect has stopped.  Now the big bets are more profitable than the small bets.

Quote
Results: 2012-Jul-04 05:49pm (up to block 187572)

   Address   Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |    BTC In    |   BTC Out    |    Profit    |   RTP 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p        1      0.00002 |     6396 |      0 (0.00000) |   6139 |     257 |        22.41 |         0.01 |        22.39 |   0.086
 1dice1Qf4        2      0.00003 |      898 |      0 (0.00000) |    831 |      67 |         7.19 |         0.00 |         7.19 |   0.024
 1dice2pxm        4      0.00006 |     1412 |      0 (0.00000) |   1382 |      30 |        12.24 |         0.00 |        12.23 |   0.046
 1dice2vQo        8      0.00012 |     1152 |      0 (0.00000) |   1114 |      38 |        15.62 |         0.00 |        15.61 |   0.030
 1dice2WmR       16      0.00024 |     1370 |      0 (0.00000) |   1342 |      28 |        21.29 |         0.01 |        21.27 |   0.075
 1dice2xkj       32      0.00049 |     3110 |      1 (0.00032) |   3098 |      11 |        90.71 |       100.38 |        -9.66 | 110.653
 1dice2zdo       64      0.00098 |     4479 |      5 (0.00112) |   4457 |      17 |       177.61 |       110.74 |        66.87 |  62.351
 1dice37Ee      128      0.00195 |     5951 |     12 (0.00203) |   5892 |      47 |      1210.87 |      1142.21 |        68.65 |  94.330
 1dice3jkp      256      0.00391 |     4417 |     20 (0.00454) |   4385 |      12 |       462.00 |       330.69 |       131.31 |  71.577
 1dice4J1m      512      0.00781 |     5621 |     32 (0.00570) |   5584 |       5 |       769.83 |       330.67 |       439.16 |  42.953
 1dice5wwE     1000      0.01526 |     6882 |     95 (0.01381) |   6784 |       2 |      1428.24 |       746.85 |       681.38 |  52.292
 1dice61SN     1500      0.02289 |     5606 |    121 (0.02161) |   5479 |       6 |      2309.16 |      2539.37 |      -230.20 | 109.969
 1dice6DPt     2000      0.03052 |     5790 |    180 (0.03110) |   5607 |       3 |      1842.33 |      1740.24 |       102.09 |  94.459
 1dice6gJg     3000      0.04578 |     5849 |    294 (0.05033) |   5548 |       7 |      4171.64 |      5313.31 |     -1141.66 | 127.367
 1dice6GV5     4000      0.06104 |     5771 |    358 (0.06207) |   5410 |       3 |      1636.81 |      1443.86 |       192.95 |  88.212
 1dice6wBx     6000      0.09155 |     9881 |    922 (0.09335) |   8955 |       4 |      6467.88 |      6912.13 |      -444.24 | 106.868
 1dice6YgE     8000      0.12207 |    12435 |   1521 (0.12232) |  10914 |       0 |      3032.06 |      2616.39 |       415.66 |  86.291
 1dice7EYz    12000      0.18311 |    14937 |   2850 (0.19089) |  12080 |       5 |      6029.20 |      6374.06 |      -344.85 | 105.720
 1dice7fUk    16000      0.24414 |    36469 |   8837 (0.24236) |  27626 |       6 |      9217.75 |      8980.68 |       237.07 |  97.428
 1dice7W2A    24000      0.36621 |    24505 |   9036 (0.36921) |  15438 |      30 |     10984.14 |     11178.53 |      -194.39 | 101.770
 1dice8EMZ    32000      0.48828 |   275950 | 134351 (0.48708) | 141477 |     121 |     82125.09 |     83627.65 |     -1502.55 | 101.830
 1dice97EC    32768      0.50000 |   108253 |  54052 (0.49961) |  54137 |      64 |     37408.77 |     36644.39 |       764.37 |  97.957
 1dice9wcM    48000      0.73242 |    67184 |  49350 (0.73493) |  17799 |      35 |     38665.31 |     37241.58 |      1423.72 |  96.318
 1dice9wVt    64000      0.97656 |     5695 |   4598 (0.97457) |    120 |     976 |      4901.49 |      4709.70 |       191.79 |  96.087
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 |   620013 |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cumulative Wagers:             217238.77021334 BTC
Cumulative Rewards:            216310.81217506 BTC
Cumulative Fees Paid:             312.02222500 BTC
Cumulative Unreturned:              1.74000000 BTC
----
SD Profit on Completed Bets :       614.19581328 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  1810476  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1156403  (63.9%)
Blockchain MB:  766.5  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 470.8  (61.4%)

10874  Economy / Gambling / Re: StrikeSapphire | We need some support. on: July 04, 2012, 08:07:25 PM
There are now hourly freerolls on Strike Sapphire, but nobody's playing them:



They run whenever 3 or more people sign up.

The prize pool is $0.50 each hour (or about 76 seals chips Wink).
10875  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: [ANN] BITCOIN CHIPIN is here! on: July 04, 2012, 03:24:14 AM
I tried again with a different address, leaving the currency selection at the default value of 'BTC', and again it puts two different BTC amounts - the true one, and "0 BTC" under it:



Also, is there any way to modify an existing widget, if I wanted to switch the target, or the end date or currency say?  It won't let me make a 2nd widget for the same address.
10876  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: [ANN] BITCOIN CHIPIN is here! on: July 04, 2012, 03:20:39 AM
I enabled Javascript, reloaded the page, and created a widget.

It says "raised so far: 2.43 BTC (0 BTC)" - surely some mistake?

10877  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: [ANN] BITCOIN CHIPIN is here! on: July 04, 2012, 03:12:13 AM
Some clue as to what format you want the end date field would be useful.

I guessed, and got to a page that says:
  {"msg":" The following fields are invalid: date"}

Does it want mm/dd/yy?  dd/mm/yy/  ddmmyy?

I tried "111212", "3rd Dec 2012", "3/12/12" (which got me to a page saying just "{"id":80}"), "12/'12/12", "3/12/12" again (which got me: '{"msg":"Widget for this Bitcoin address already generated"}', so I guess the id:80 message was a success message...

[later] Ah, it turns out I have to have javascript enabled - then clicking the date field pops up a calendar.  It would be useful if the site told me it needed javascript to work properly.

Also, clicking the "create a free widget" link at the top of the page seems to do nothing but take me back to the page I'm already on.
10878  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: July 04, 2012, 01:48:08 AM
Is this just a natural consequence of martingale type betting strategies? Players start with small bets, go on a losing run, doubling up each time, so there are string of profitable small bets for SatoshiDice and then player finally gets a winning (larger) bet, so those larger bets are less profitable from SatoshiDice's point of view.

I don't think so.  The dice don't care whether your bet of 5 BTC is part of a martingale chain or not.  Each bet has the same (slightly negative) expectation no matter what your previous and next bets are.
10879  Economy / Gambling / Re: SatoshiDICE.com - Verified rolls, up to 64,000x winning on: July 03, 2012, 03:22:12 AM
That's all I'm asking, what happened to them?

Here's what happened:

You made two bets of 0.04 BTC around the same time.  One way on "lessthan 32000" and the other was on "lessthan 48000".  They both won.  One won 0.05240186 BTC and the other won 0.07875280 BTC.

You're looking at the payment of the 0.05240186 BTC and asking why it isn't 0.07875280 BTC.

Here are details of the two bets you made:



To see them for yourself, click here and here.

You can see from the address that received the 0.05240186 that it is from the "lessthan 48000" bet.  If you scroll down a bit in the transactions list you should see the other payment.

I don't know if I can make it any clearer than this, but if you still don't understand, please let me know which bit you're not following, and I'll try to explain further.
10880  Economy / Gambling / Re: SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game on: July 02, 2012, 11:46:27 PM
Was the previous 100 BTC bet you too, when the odds were fixed at 16:1?
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