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11101  Other / Off-topic / Re: Am I the only girl on here? : ( on: January 05, 2015, 02:43:51 AM
Most women are smarter then they'll say, where as most guys who boast alot can be complete fools.   I think its not dumbing down but submissiveness is still a thing in 21st century very much, any guy with any brains knows it never works out that way whether a women pretends to let you have your way or not.  Its better to always get on with someone 50/50 not start a relationship dominating the conversation etc
11102  Economy / Speculation / Re: I'm All In - Sold My House! on: January 05, 2015, 02:01:39 AM
^^ I think he will be able to get his money back, make a profit is another thing because we can always rise and fall again.   Its going to continue to be a rocky road I reckon

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The guy is either now renting or on the streets. I feel for his family if he indeed is homeless.

He inherited the house, I dont think he was living there even so it was surplus.  Hence the sale, putting all proceeds into bitcoin is another matter of how wise but the sale itself was a gamble of his surplus it seems
11103  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: January 05, 2015, 01:22:41 AM
Global or civil, one would weaken the case for the other I imagine as a common enemy unites.   I do agree the most affected country would be USA as it imports the most, so we dont have to go full doom but missing capacity in its production does need to be made up if the dollar is no longer supported by external government wealth funds.
And the simple contrary to contagion or similar arguments is default becomes increasingly likely the better option, it doesnt mean war it might be trade failure and poorer people but USA is not a naturally impoverished countryside, in fact its a natural exporter not importer I think
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Personally I agree with OROBTC that the decline of the physical economy and a transition to a true knowledge economy may take a while.

I think it'd take more then a while, Asia is lacking in agricultural capacity and technology is still lacking.   In theory we have bio diesel and the means to replace crude oil with natural oil but its such a slim thing now that most dont know of it beyond still inefficient bio processing such as sugar cane which is pathetic imitation of the bio technology capable in a brighter future.
An economy is naturally based on what people need which for many centuries was largely food, we have progressed but skipping right to knowledge is not happening in this decade.  We still need to establish a very solid supply route for a growing world population and the greatest growth is in countries not as gifted as USA in food production so this is the first development I expect
11104  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: January 04, 2015, 09:01:42 PM
“Change is the only constant in life.”
― Heraclitus 500 bc.   

  A return to the mean would have us make great changes from here.    Next time Krugman writes article, I wonder how many times he can deny factors which have been true for centuries.   So it could be looked at from two directions, I think we're at an extreme with so much debt supported by so little actual trade or export to create valid demand for that currency and debt.   
A return to normal would not continue that because this is not normal and I dont think even the FED argues this, arguably we just repeat from history of what other economies have seen.  On grander scale possibly and also due to technology much faster, which is where bitcoin comes in ?   I do hope we skip great depression decade long haul and its a more brief default event

I am scrambling the password of the 'contagion' account, so I will no longer be able to login nor post from that account name.
Whys that, guess we'll never know now Shocked
11105  Economy / Speculation / Re: I'm All In - Sold My House! on: January 04, 2015, 08:56:35 PM
Well i don't say he doesn't i just deduct it from the fact that he writes multiple times "i'm all in".

Its an expression like a poker play but hope he wasnt literally putting it all in.   An example of that was the Australian miner who got divorced and literally sold his life including the job and everything he owned.
The OP didnt sell his job and I hope was not being quite that extreme to have nothing left.  My suggestion was he buy a smaller house and only 'gamble' the difference, it would still amount considerably if bitcoin were used as a global currency by even 1%
11106  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 04, 2015, 08:48:25 PM
Gold outperformed every currency apart from the US $ in 2014, 0.8% down on the year



I think most people know how the US $ will end up so get some gold while you can Smiley


I was just going to point out similar that despite the thread title it has generally not been true that gold is collapsing.   It went upto 1900 and has that true enough and its not gained anything but overall its not a losing asset in the longer term.
Like this last yearly view, gold gained alot in 2014 before losing most of it again which is just holding steady in the big picture.      As far as miners are concerned their costs have reduced from the oil price drop which generally means they make more money even though gold price has stayed level, I think they are better off in 2015 then 2014

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Coffee is being used more in asia ?  Not sure if its gaining but we can expect gold similarly to gain from any rise in use
11107  Economy / Speculation / Re: I'm All In - Sold My House! on: January 04, 2015, 08:16:06 PM
Its fair to assume this house was not everything he owned.  It was inheritance so some unexpected fortune he used to speculate as he already had a living and accommodation elsewhere.  Its a risky bet but slightly less extreme then selling out something you were using.   House prices could still fall from here, bitcoin could still go up we'll have to see which was best.   I wouldnt have done it either but Im not thinking he was in 100% on this
11108  Other / Off-topic / Re: Am I the only girl on here? : ( on: January 04, 2015, 03:59:43 AM
Intelligence can definitely be an attractive quality, I dont think thats a myth. It makes less sense that some guys would prefer women who 'know their place'/dont speak or have nothing interesting to say and share nothing in common, isnt this setting up a really boring relationship.   Sadly its surprising but its more common then that, intelligent women is very sexy Cheesy

There is such a thing as geek chic :p
http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/geek-chic
11109  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: January 04, 2015, 02:56:29 AM

Get better soon bro, everything's gonna work out just fine.

False dilemma?

I do think there are false dynamics in play.   Any really great failure is probably going to have people recognise the factors incorrectly beforehand.   That is a true story from about 20 years ago I read in a national newspaper, the point is people can believe a situation is improving even while the opposite is occurring and actually the symptoms are mis-recognised.   

So maybe an analogy I would try would be that of an avalanche.   What is a ski resort without snow, this is terrible and unemployment for many but even worse would be too much snow.   A normal system would be to acknowledge this danger and clear the snow from slopes in stages.   Thats just normal good practise, so I would relate that to bankruptcy and the situation we have now is they are storing up this kind of massive possible failure where all factors unwind at once.
With a thread subject as grand as devastation it might tend to hyperbole but I would relate it to natural events like this and I think economics should ultimately reflect that human actions are a natural phenomena.   I'll have a read through fallacies and see if Im guilty but the bottom line is politics dominates economies and politics ends up dealing or ignoring failures in the worst way

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Informal_fallacies
11110  Economy / Economics / Re: USA is now number 2 on: January 03, 2015, 03:45:17 AM
In India it was one third of the country below 1 dollar not that long ago, it has improved but I think it remains far higher then China.   In theory India is a faster growing economy as it has the working population increasing still where as China is now in decline in their raw labour capacity. Of course China will still expand from development and industry increasingly refining its output and becoming efficient but eventually set on its path now China will meet Japan in a similar decline of retired vs working productive capacity
11111  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: January 03, 2015, 03:35:37 AM
Reminds me of a story I once read of a young man who disillusioned with western life went to study with the monks at a Zen Buddhism spiritual temple.    Day after day he was seen to be contemplating much greatness within his mediation studies for hours on end.   Finally they thought he had achieved enlightenment such was his calmness, however he fell ill and was found to be suffering a brain tumour and had lost a large part of his brain function due to constricted blood flow.
    Without any reasonable feedback with his mentors due to the language difference, his apparent progress and calm peacefulness had been mistaken as progress.

  I very much hope it is incorrect to suspect something is seriously wrong right now in trade and global economies but I believe people are too willing to accept the current situation as ok or positive even when there should be warning signs enough matters are unbalanced not stable or progressing
11112  Other / Off-topic / Re: Am I the only girl on here? : ( on: January 03, 2015, 03:24:43 AM

Can you give us a picture of you? :3

man makes a point
Will fabiola be releasing a 2015 calender of your forum pictures, please send me personal message of retail detail.   So thirsty right now :p
11113  Economy / Speculation / Re: I'm All In - Sold My House! on: January 03, 2015, 03:12:21 AM
Not troll but there was no benefit in demanding payment in bitcoin.  I get the general hype on trying that and even Richard Branson likes that kind of thing but it was never necessary.  Take the cash as is normally convenient and then just buy the bitcoin yourself.  Thats no fun you might say but the thing is you can choose the timing far better as its alot of potential profit from both getting the best time to sell the house and the best time to buy the coins.

  For example, you can say I want to buy these coins monthly until I reach the full amount I want and he might have benefited that way.        Opposite to that some transactions could benefit from bitcoin truly and no hype needed, typically small fast transactions especially where you dont want a reversal or visa type involvement.  Also where the currency is unstable or the banking system perhaps not secure like Vietnam or more famously Zimbabwe you might well benefit from a bitcoin demand such as this

my point, wasnt 100% silly and if we see those factors increase in the world we could see houses sold this way again imo
11114  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 03, 2015, 02:47:37 AM
To have sidechains as jet engine technology to bitcoin you'd need to see a great deal of benefit and efficiency increase from including them.  Not many think that is the case, I think its more like adding more seats or more luggage space.  It'd be nice if sidechains somehow improved everything about bitcoin not just tagged onto it
11115  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: January 03, 2015, 02:30:47 AM
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They keep printing, but it all goes to the cronies at the start of the pipeline.  These blessed few, this band of brothers, will hoard the $$ as long as they can gain a spread on them.  When they can no longer gain a spread, le deluge en suite.  All that cash reaching for spread means yields go down.  It gets so hard to find anything that hasn't been bid up to untenable risk/reward levels that investment is gradually grinding to a halt.

That money printed newly is largely going to governments.  If it was being distributed in a truly capitalist way the money would just be spent.   The biggest investment most ordinary people make is in their own family not crappy 1% bonds that wont even beat inflation in the end.
  We have a truly skewed economic system because it doesnt have cash apportioned to people as it should be, normal people just spend cash as they get it so all this low inflation is symptom of illness and their cure is to print more  Huh
 USA largest trading partner is a Communist undemocratic dictatorship.   You cant really have much faith in a system which will execute dissenters, today it benefits the west to have China storing this cash not allowing their own people to use it but at some point it will turn bad against us Im pretty sure.  I really cant see how China would be so benevolent towards us, they will treat us harshly as and when it appears best for them
11116  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: December 30, 2014, 03:48:50 AM
The main factor for circulation of currency rather then just storage of debt by countries supporting the trade deficit of USA will be interest rates and deprecation of the cash. [also the failing budgets of those countries, Japan has $1tn etc] It will make more sense to sell that debt and realise it as dollars or bid up the prices of tradable assets.  Thats why many expect a commodity boom though we seem to be seeing the opposite and world gdp has fallen in expectation for some time now (while remaining positive year to year overall)
11117  Economy / Economics / Re: Inflation and Deflation of Price and Money Supply on: December 30, 2014, 02:56:43 AM
Pretty sure we had a QE coin at one point and it was an excellent demonstration of value dynamics within that system Tongue

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So in one case, you are the abstract owner of some sympathy capital (you think you have gathered), which may be worth nothing after all ; in the other case there is an agreement, and hence a debt.

I think they can both be equally worthless.    The main point would be a written contract, in reference to dollar debt there is not fixed worth to 'the promise' only the idea of exchange or release from taxes within that nation and that relys on trade being in demand.  [If you hold a trillion of this promise, this is a worry and a liability]   Russia perhaps has a problem with this now as its main trade is oil and gas which has become too expensive to produce relative to their competitors retail pricing. It could apply to dollar also as USA is perhaps also too singularly reliant or leaning on one effect to balance the rest of its economy.
 
  I think December registered the largest ever manufacturing trade deficit, yet its not a problem while we are propped up and China can just make things for us.   China has their own problems and the West cant dictate how factors play out just as Russia could not dictate outside its borders and is weak
11118  Economy / Economics / Re: why do people agree to pay taxes? on: December 30, 2014, 01:58:22 AM
The point is that people can spend that money themselves more efficiently not that they dont want security or welfare but there is something to be said for earning your own wage and providing for yourselves or at least within a community not ruled by a political majority thousands of miles away.  Law administered remotely by strangers is far more likely to go awry and/or cost to excess over what that person or community could do themselves

The Swiss probably have the best system with more local control and only essentially national policy decided centrally like unfortunately their decision to fix currency to the Euro is a valid national policy and they did vote a referendum on it recently in a related way
11119  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Ruble drops 12% in one day. on: December 29, 2014, 02:01:57 AM
Running away from a bad environment would seem to be alot different to running away from oneself though its true wherever you go, there you are!    Losing trade with Russia does hurt Europe and other places, some worse then others but in the main Russia was and is about oil and gas and they can be replaced.
   The way Putin controls that country is not really to its benefit beyond keeping basic order which I presume they could do without him, Russia can be replaced in global trade which does make sanctions far harder for them then us.    Im not sure they will be forced to change course as they do have China and if Cuba is any example it can take a very long time to change anything

Overall I rate Putin as a moderate, he is not the worse you could have.  I fear situations like Libya where they seem to spiral downwards without forced unity, would sanctions have done better there
11120  Economy / Economics / Re: USA is now number 2 on: December 29, 2014, 01:49:56 AM
China is developing and has much ground to make up from the past losses to trade.  USA is more in decline because of its overburden to government, it must consolidate and resolve conflicts in its economy between what works and does not.  I expect that is why China would 'beat' USA in GDP growth.
Some admire the command economy idea and that China may advance because politics has the power to force it but I think most natural growth likely to succeed would be unforced and supported by people without duress
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