This theory is testable in that indeed markets are adapting to change all the time. No one has ever seen a market NOT reacting to massive inflow/outflow of something important like money, resources or energy. Not once.
LOL. This is how you test your "theory"? Your exposition reads like astrology. |
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[It is also possible that the CC cartel interferes with this. Funny thing about bitcoin libertarians. They like cartels, but cartels fuck them anally. Does this mean libertarians are bottoms?] No. I'm an economist. Whatever else you might be, you are clearly a filthy-mouthed, mean-spirited, little blow-hard who has no qualms leaving the refuse of your mind all over otherwise civil, well-meaning public forums. If you just go over to the left a bit, there is a button marked ignore. Mine is bright orange to help you find it. I suggest you click that button. |
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Bitcoin is analogous to a ponzi scheme because it is cannot be sustained in the long-term.
People have an intuition that this is true (though they don't know why), so they sloppily label it a ponzi.
Nothing is sustainable over a long enough period! It doesn't make everything a ponzi... I agree with you. As you point out, sustainability is not a 0 or 1 categorization. An obviously unsustainable system is analagous to a ponzi. Thus the close association between bitcoin and ponzi. I would not recommend bitcoin, it is not sufficiently sustainable. |
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Dr. Spock didn't, at first, openly challenge the use of corporal punishment; although all of his books were certainly in that vein. However, Dr. Spock's views on corporal punishment had no relation to the liberty arguments presented herein, because he openly admitted that he was a pacifist and a liberal, and his views on how society at large operated colored his views on this matter.
Liberal = Considerate towards children. Libertarian = Child Abuser. Is that the association I'm supposed to make? Sounds about right. The LOL thing is you are using this association to justify your support for abuse. |
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You want a company to be less greedy LMAO
No. I'm an economist. I want companies to be more greedy. If they aren't greedy I want the managers replaced with competent ones. wait you just said you want wordpress to over a discount because they use bitcoins and don't have high fees, now your saying something else. They are greedy no discount will happen. Have you heard of supply and demand? Or is this going to be hopeless? |
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You want a company to be less greedy LMAO
No. I'm an economist. If the managers aren't greedy, I want the managers replaced. It is possible that CC company greed is interfering with greed further down in the chain. If so, I blame the state for failing to adequately regulate CC companies. |
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Are they offering any type of discount for bitcoin use?
Why would they give discount if they have to pay a fee to the BitPay similarly as they would pay to PayPal ? Also, even if they processed the Bitcoins themselves, they would still have to convert BTC to dollars anyway, so there is another small loss in the process of exchange. Assuming that BitPay and Wordpress are well-managed (big assumption), BitPay is giving Wordpress a significant discount on its advertised processing fee, and Wordpress is passing part of the savings on to customers. [It is also possible that the CC cartel interferes with this. Funny thing about bitcoin libertarians. They like cartels, but cartels fuck them anally. Does this mean libertarians are bottoms?] If wordpress does not do this, then bitcoin will not be used by a meaningful number of Wordpress customers. If bitcoin is not used by a meaningful number of wordpress customers, then bitcoin adoption will negatively affect wordpress' bottom line. Payoff = Additional Margin from Bitcoin Payment vs. CC (negligible without volume) + Additional Customers who can only access bitcoin (absolutely negligible) - Adoption cost This will be negative unless a discount is offered to increase the volume of BTC payments. To sum up in different words. BitPay claims that the CC companies are taking 11% on some wordpress payments vs. ~3% via BitPay. Wordpress should introduce an incentive for customers to use bitcoins so that it can earn larger margins. Otherwise, what is the point for Wordpress? Customers are not going to use bitcoin for the hell of it. I don't get any miles when I pay with bitcoin. Unless there is a discount, I pay with my card every single time. |
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That is a very good idea. It would actually make litecoin silver to bitcoin's gold or whatever. It allows LTC to piggyback on BTC's network effects to a greater degree.
(of course I think LTC sucks dog balls and see PPC as the only potentially legitimate coin but let's ignore that for the moment)
1) You go to a checkout with BTC page. They give you a BTC address and a amount
2) Simultaneously, you go to the intermediary checkout with LTC, PPC, etc. page.
3) You input the BTC payment address and amount
4) They give you a LTC/PPC/etc. payment address and amount
5) You send your alt coin. They receive the LTC/PPC/etc. payment and then send the BTC.
There is some double-spend risk. Thinking from a broader perspective. This is good. It would be a good test of the alt chains ability to defend against double-spends.
The payment processor can make a margin off the spread as usual.
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Bitcoin is analogous to a ponzi scheme because it is cannot be sustained in the long-term.
People have an intuition that this is true (though they don't know why), so they sloppily label it a ponzi.
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~1% is just the extra fee, they also pad the rate. For a $5 wordpress upgrade, collecting from any foreign country, PayPal will take 30 cents plus 3.9% plus their 1% margin on the exchange. so in total, about 11% processing fee. If those are the types of fees a company has been paying for the last 15 years, they would not bat an eye at our 2.69% all-inclusive fee. Are they offering any type of discount for bitcoin use? If yes, what kind? If no, why not? |
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I won't be posting it online as it contains my real name.
Good idea not to associate all these scams with your real name. How did you ever end up with so many aliases anyways? [Since you failed to answer any of my questions.] |
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Search around the internet for some kids in Africa with a blog site on Wordpress. Convince them to accept donations in bitcoins, a handful of us chip in, and with like 3 BTC they can upgrade and improve their blog.
LOL. "Wanted Nigerian Scammer who accepts bitcoin" I can't wait to see that blow up in your face. |
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I won't be posting it online as it contains my real name.
Good idea not to associate all these scams with your real name. How did you ever end up with so many aliases anyways? You must have pulled a lot of scams to have to change your identity so many times. Did any of your scams succeed? Why don't you tell us about some of your crowning achievements. |
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From 2011Q4 to 2012Q3, Paypal's total payment volume - the sum USD value of all transfers through its system - was $136 billion.
Let us postulate that in the future, Bitcoin/BitPay is able to absorb 10% of Paypal's market share in online money transfers - this is ambitious, but not delusionally so. In that case, Bitcoin would have an annual TPV of $13.6 billion. The bitcoin network seems to take slightly over an hour - let's say 1.2 hours - to finalize a transaction (according to the "six confirmations" rule used by most clients). This means that assuming the network's transfers are uniformly distributed (the most conservative estimate possible - generally speaking there will be spikes and the biggest spike is the most important), Bitcoin must be able to represent $13.6/365/20 = $1.8 million in value at any given time. Folding in the data that the peak day for PayPal transactions - Black Friday - has a volume equal to about 248% that of an average Friday, we can conservatively estimate the peak requirement of "how much value the Bitcoin network must represent" as about $4.46 million.
The most recent estimate that I have read - a paper analyzing the Bitcoin network - seems to believe that about 78% of Bitcoins in existence are either dead or in long-term storage. Assuming this ratio remains roughly accurate, the total number of coins available to represent transactions is (21 Million * 0.22) = 4.4 million BTC.
Thus: if Bitcoin is able to absorb 10% of Paypal's market share in online money transfers, the lower bound for the value of 1BTC is about $1.01.
Nice work. I like your exercise. Here is another interesting exercise for you. Suppose we use your math, but introduce one small tweak. Rather than relying on proof-of-work, bitcoin is redesigned as a proof-of-stake system. All txn fees go to bitcoin owners rather than hardware owners. Assume that the average txn fee of 0.1% of a sent balance. Fees then contribute to bitcoin's market value. The interest rate becomes very important here because it determines the conversion of expected fee revenue streams into present market value. 0.1% implies that $13.6 billion in txns generates $13.6 million in fees per annum. Assume an annual interest rate of 10% (this is high because of risk). $13.6 million in fees per annum then has a present value of $136 million. Lower Bound on Market Cap = ($4.46 million + $136 million) = 140.46 million Coins = 21 million [the hoarded coins are sitting around earning fees in this case] Lower Bound on Price = $6.70 Suppose that bitcoin is extremely low risk and has a 1% annual interest rate. With such low-risk, $13.6 milloin in fees per annum equates to a present value of $1.36 billion. Lower Bound on Market Cap = ($4.46 million + $1.36 billion) = $1.36446 billion Coins = 21 million [the hoarded coins are sitting around earning fees in this case] Lower Bound on Price = $64.97 As you can see, the valuation of bitcoin is crippled by the PoW design.[You could increase market cap arbitrarily by increasing the fee %, but this needs to be kept low to allow bitcoin to capture paypal's market share. I think 0.1% is reasonable.] |
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I wonder how long my contrary viewpoint will last this time before someone erases it like the good little fascists they are.
Please, this is a libertarian forum. |
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I have a gambling game idea for you.
You bet 1 btc or ltc or ppc. You lock in current exchange rates for 1 week. You also take a 3% cut.
Then 1 week later you return at random either btc or ltc or ppc traded at the locked in exchange rate.
Thus, if I want to short one of these coins, i can bet them at your site. Of course, selling directly makes more sense. Betting is more fun.
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I take it you are not looking to short PPC then. Too bad was hoping to earn some interest.
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Are you shorting PPCoin too? I would lend you some at 1% per week. Though I probably don't have enough to satisfy your demand. Perhaps other people can chip in?
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