So far, I have been taking profits in BTC, or at least, folding all dollars back into BTC purchases, and I am tentatively considering the funding of my lifestyle.. the taking of profits in dollars as a separate endeavor, that will likely start to happen in the coming few years.  I suppose maybe by the time I get to the stage of overall withdrawing dollars rather than stacking sats, then I would be also taking profits in dollars, too... but that still should not be changing how much time it would take for me to execute trades (or setting up the buy sell orders). 

I suppose maybe part of my seemingly less efficiency in setting up my buy/sell orders is just that I spend some time trying to investigate what had happened while I was away, exactly, and then making sure that I am doing exactly what I want to do, even though I do have somewhat set buy/sell increments that keep getting triggered.  Mine are not at exactly the same intervals, but they are definitely systematic. 

I am not sure if I spend more time than you contemplating what I am doing, but I did quickly look at my activities since March 1, and it appears that I had about 58 buy orders execute and about 28 sell orders, a bit higher activity level than usual.

You should have been in BTC long enough to recognize that you do not have to be getting caught up in the need to earn interest on your BTC and a lot of those bullshit defi scam shit.

Furthermore, if you sufficiently and reasonably estimate the bottom, of course, you can draw from the actual BTC, but the worth of the BTC in terms of dollars is NOT really going to go down as long as you are withdrawing a reasonable rate, and presuming 4% seems to be way within the range of reasonable...

Yeah, of course, if you are going to calculate $20k as your price for BTC, then you are kind of going to be fucked in the past 4 years, except for perhaps a few weeks in late 2017 and early 2018.

We gotta be reasonable in our bottom projections.  In 2014 our bottom projection should have been in the $100 area, and sure a lot of people likely made mistakes, but by the time we spent considerable time in the $200s in 2015, then by the time 2016 came we probably could have reasonably had $200 as the bottom and $500 as the bottom in 2017, and maybe $1k as the bottom in 2018, and $2k to $3k as the bottom in 2019, and now it is looking like $4k could be the bottom, but maybe we want to be more conservative and stick with $2k to $3k as our bottom.

Those bottom numbers are used to calculate the value of our BTC and reasonable withdrawal rates that is not going to deplete the value of our asset when we are withdrawing in dollars.

Get the fuck out of here with that nonsense of you don't want to deplete the number of your BTC, you are just handicapping yourself into a situation in which you will never be able to do shit, and who the fuck wants to tie their BTC in some kind of defi scam bullshit and get your principle taken from you.

Jimbo tells us what he is doing on a regular basis, and he is not entrusting his BTC to 3rd parties.  I don't know if he is employing a 4% per year withdrawal rate, but we can figure out those kinds of matters for ourselves, and I have talked about this stuff thousands of times.

a 4% withdrawal rate can be totally sustainable in perpetuity, and none of us even need perpetuity because at some point we are going to die.. and so at some point we can start to withdraw more than 4% which presumably when we are withdrawing more than 4% we are digging into our principle.. not just our presumed appreciation of value.

I am just  saying don't be intellectually handicapping yourself with bullshit, but at the same time, your bottom calculation should give you reasonable calculations too, so long as you are not trying to presume the bottom to be way higher than it actually is.





Of course, you have to calculate all your income sources together, and if $2k per month is not enough, then what do you need? $3,333k?  Yes.. add them all up and if they meet your numbers, such as $3,333k per month, then you have reached fuck you status.




Well, if the number is going to be tight, then of course, you have to make sure that you do not pull the fuck you lever too soon, but the whole idea of the fuck you lever is that you do not have to work if you do not want to and still reasonably be able to meet all of your expenses, as well as having some cushion for emergencies etc etc...

For example, if you have not properly calculated all of your expenses, such as maintenance or you do not have proper insurance on your house, then you are kind of fucking yourself when your emergency comes, and you have to exit fuck you status because you pulled the lever too soon and you had more expenses than you had calculated yourself to have.. You have to include the extreme scenarios in your preparations before you actually pull the fuck you lever.



You can project it...but that does not assume that it is going to happen... but you still can outline a possibly reasonable road map, and of course, if BTC way the fuck underperforms, you are going to know it well before you pull the fuck you lever.  Your pulling the fuck you lever is based on current projections based on numbers that have already been reached and hopefully conservative.... for example, once you pull the fuck you lever, you are only presuming an average of 4% per year of BTC price appreciation.  


Yeah, of course, BTC could perform worse than 4% per year.   You pick bottom prices because it is way the hell easier to perform 4% per year or better on bottom prices than if you are starting with top prices.  Of course it is not guaranteed, but we have been in BTC long enough to have some pretty damned good ideas, and if you are really nervous about the bottom, then currently, you can use $1k as a bottom.. of course, $1k as a bottom is not guaranteed, either, but it is more guaranteed than $4k and even more guaranteed than current price of $6,722.  So, I am not saying that all of your problems are going to be solved, and of course, you should be working with some cushions, but at some point hopefully any of us will feel comfortable pulling that fuck you lever rather than working until death.

Of course, some people will not have been able to reach such status, and they might never get to $1million or whatever is the goal... so they have to keep working.

But surely some people do not necessarily need to have passive income, either because they are too fucking old anyhow.. so they are just working on building their principle, so once they pull the fuck you lever, they are depleting everything.  I am not talking about depleting everything, I am talking about something that should be able to work for even younger folks to be able to figure a 4% per year withdrawal rate should work as long as they calculate the value of their underlying capital properly and don't get too unrealistic in the amount that you need.  Maybe you really do need $3,333, just to have a cushion, and $2k is just not going to do, and therefore, you better be aiming for $3,333 rather than aiming for $2k and end up pulling the fuck you lever too early and without enough to sustain ur lil selfie.


Thanks... I get carried away, sometimes.... shit.   

Maybe the above post is a case in point?   

I am saying that $1million worth of bitcoin can be presumed to generate $3,333 in passive income as an ongoing and persistent withdrawal rate that is NOT going to deplete the principle.

Of course, your valuation of your BTC should be at the bottom of the price swing and not at the top in order to be prudent and practical, but I have no reason to doubt that bitcoin is NOT going to be able to generate, on average, a 4% per year amount. 

So currently, I am thinking that we could presume the BTC price bottom to be somewhere between $3k and $5k (let's just say $4k for ease of calculation).. but in 3-5 years, hopefully a reasonable BTC bottom would be decently well above $30k.

So, today, in order to have a $1million dollar value in your bitcoin stash, then yeah, you would need to have 250BTC ($1million/$4k).  So, maybe I was being a bit overly optimistic with asserting that 10BTC would be sufficient, because presuming a bottom of $100k seems a bit premature.  So if we project a possible bottom of $30k in 3-5 years, then that would be 33.33BTC... but maybe in 8-10 years, we could presume well over a $100k bottom?

I don't see any real logical reason to assert that any of us would be reasonable with just hanging onto our BTC when they will be able to generate a sufficient passive income for us.  And, currently $3,333 seems to be enough for you, and if $2k is really enough for you, then you won't need as many BTC.  If you have $600k worth of value, then you can generate $2k per month from that.  That is $600k * 4% = $24k/12= $2k., 

At current projected bottom BTC prices of $4k, $600k would be 150BTC.  In 3-5 years when our bottom is $30k, then that would be 20BTC, and in 8-10 years, when our bottom is above $100k, then that would be a mere 6BTC.

4% should be a sustainable withdrawal rate without depleting principle.

Does that mean that your BTC accumulation goal is less than $1million?

Remember $1million in BTC can generate about $3,333 per month in passive income, which surely you should be able to figure out how to get $2k out of that, even after taxes.. hahahahaha

Remember in a lot of my posts, I was assuming $2million in BTC, just to have a cushion, so maybe that is kind of an American centric viewpoint, but even in america, there is going to be a decent amount of regional variation so $6,667 per month of passive income will NOT cut it in all locations, unless you are more scrutinizing with your budget.

Anyhow, gosh, less than $1million as a BTC goal could be quite reachable in the coming year to 4 years, and with merely 10 BTC or so..  Of course, we have to be thinking about the BTC dips, not just the peaks, too, because who the fuck should be striving to take all of their money out of BTC and then get stuck with all of your assets in dollars and then your nestegg maybe end up getting deflated to peanuts.

I don't know if I should believe you, or not.  Of course, I believe you in the sense that I believe that you are actually doing it, and that you are making profits, but in terms of the level of your efficiency.. i have my skepticism.

Sure, you might be a robot in terms of your resetting of your orders, and maybe you have various parameters that either you do not need to tweak or that such tweaking is also somewhat systematic (thus requiring little to no thought).



#me too



hahahahaha

touché

Have to give you a bit of credit for slipping that lil dig in there.



gotta "ditto head" you on that one.



Hey.. I am quite glad that you are teaching your system to others in RL.  I have tried some teaching in RL, but it is quite difficult to keep compliance, and I surely am not any kind of authoritarian in real life, so I will explain matters to someone who seems willing to learn, but so many times, I have seen the someones to be way smarter than me, and they want to employ their own "smarter than JJG variation" which frequently ends up in variations of a mindrust situation at one point or another... .and I try to say "I told you so... I told you so." in a way that gets them to learn for themselves but to implement ideas that improve on mine rather than making dumbass mistakes that devolve into too much gambling which I try to warn against on an ongoing basis. 

Even though I might seem somewhat disgruntled about dealing with peeps in RL tending to NOT follow my system even when I engage in what seems to be a decent amount of hand-holding from my perspective, I still don't mind showing RL peeps from time to time, when the topic comes up and when I already anticipate that they are going to deviate in kinds of expected overly gambling-like ways.

Your guess is likely as good (if not better) than anyone else's, including yours truly...


hahahahahaha

Not that you are asking me.


Not that I am going to refrain from giving an opinion because of your failure/refusal to direct your question at me....


In a few recent posts, I had already mentioned the action that I had taken earlier this week to deal with my perception of the current BTC price dynamics situation by tweaking my existing buy and sell orders a bit.

Largely what I did was shave off some of my already existing buy orders in order to spread out the dollars more which caused an ability to add more buy orders down at a lower price.  Hopefully, we do not go down there.

Also I increased my already existing sell orders by a small amount between $6,900-ish and $7,900-ish.

If I get any new (and unexpected) cash come in then I would just add it to my various already existing buy orders, and of course, if I feel that my buy orders are stacking up too much with excessive cash, then the buy orders that are closest to the existing price will either be increased or maybe add some new ones at higher prices, which could escalate into a market buy order (but surely, for me, not too likely any compelling need for any market buy order in these kinds of uncertain times).

By the way, my tweakenings have made me feel sssssooooooo much MOAR better, for my insurance for the downside - hoping that i do not need it (and hoping that BTC prices do not go below $5k ever, ever again (sorry for your loss mindrust)), and my BIGGEST risk on the upside would be if the BTC price shot straight up to $20k without any kind of meaningful retracement.. If such an unlikely shooting straight up scenario were to occur, the most I would be out would have been an additional 1% lower BTC stash than what I would have had before I had made the tweakenings - seems to me to be a very small price to pay for a BIG ASS peace of mind.

Difficult to take you, your daughter or anyone here seriously with the proliferation of that kind of art.

 

Probably a lot of peeps understand some of the complexities of keeping a lot of checklists and frequently deviating from the checklists, but then realizing that you have not got shit done from your various checklists regarding what are supposed to be the more important tasks to accomplish.

Part of the reason that the items were put on the checklist was in order to prioritize them getting done.

So, yeah, likely the checklist maintenance, use and keeping track of just get exacerbated with MOAR and MOAR elderly status.... part of the reason that even the potentially smartest of bitcoiners prefer to have some improvements in the various bitcoin interfaces...

Surely some of the most powerful tools in bitcoin (and technology) require some decent abilities to both know some of the technical matters but also sometimes abilities to juggle a variety of technical matters without screwing too many things up.. None of us really would want to become a victim of our own various incompetencies and lose some or all of our bitcoin because of such human error difficulties (which I understand that human error seems to be a pretty damned BIG aspect in regards to peeps losing their coins.. and many of us have probably had some holes in our game in terms of both keeping track and even various passing on to heirs preparations).

In recent times, there seems to be some additional (and deserved skepticisms) regarding how the numbers are counted and the extent to which the methods of counting are consistent, and surely we had problems in some other places that tests were not even being done and numbers were not being accurately reported...

I doubt that we even have to proclaim that one area is fraudulent or deceptive, even if they may have been employing different counting methods or even seemingly (relatively speaking) exaggerating or undercounting of the death attributions and/or other related statistics. 

Of course, some news outlets are guilty of the same lack of fair reporting and representations by exaggerating data in one way or another... or even coming to poor/misleading conclusions based on bad, inaccurate or insufficient data.

Since we seem to be in a somewhat liquid situation (current status, and questions about if the bottom is in), I remain somewhat unclear regarding what our reasonable jumping off point would be at this point in time for our current projected exponential cycle.  

Personally, I had assessed the 2015 starting off point as $250 (rather than $200), in part because we spent a decent amount of time bouncing in around that $250 price before the 2 year rise from about October 2015 to December 2017, which I have ended up assigning a 78x, as what I would consider a fair representation of the bottom to the top.  Of course, we did visit sub $200 on at least two significant occasions during that 2015 bottom, which was both January 2015 and late August 2015.

Regarding our current, bouncing off price point, I was kind of debating where reasonably (and fairly) that might be, and before our current price crash to $3,850, I had been thinking around $4,200-ish, even though sub $4,200 might have been more fair, yet it seems that my dilemma about sub $4,200 may have been resolved with our retesting a bottom that reached $3,850.

If that current bottom of $3,850 ends up holding, then $3,850 may be a decently fair number for an overall bottom (or jumping off point), even though we did experience a real low at $3,124, it does not seem that we spent a whole hell of a lot of time in the sub $3,850 territory, and currently, I am not really sure if it would be fair to ascribe anywhere in the $3,850 to $4,200 price area as a fair launching off bottom either...

Probably, ultimately, my current point is that it seems to be a bit too early to decide what would be our fair launching off bottom, until we are sure that the bottom is in as a product of both time and quantity.  

Otherwise, I agree with the overall sentiment of ArminVanBitcoin, that our current price seems to be at some point higher than our likely to be starting off point, and we are likely going to have a decently high exponential growth in BTC prices in the coming years, maybe again lasting a couple of years before getting to the top.. not sure if late 2021 has reasonably been put further off, and of course, we have already witnessed that the specific curves of each of these exponential BTC price rises does NOT end up playing out exactly the same, even if they end up having a lot of areas of overlap (which is I suppose what PlanB is describing as co-integration).

Yet ultimately, I am thinking that we are likely to be quite less than 78x this time around, and 30x to 50x seems to be somewhat more reasonable, given BTC's ongoing greater maturity, which for calculation sake would bring our next top anywhere between $120k-ish and $200k-ish. Of course, we have been seeing some numbers that go much further and even close to $500k, which would put the top over 100x, which seems a bit much to me, but we also know that BTC does have past patterns of overshooting even the most reasonably bullish of expectations.

Don't get me wrong.  If all of this ends up being wrong, and we just have some minor boost that fucks up the various theories and patterns, then I still am going to be financially and psychologically o.k. with that, too... .. The models and patterns still seem to be quite convincing in terms of likely ongoing good times ahead for sat stackers and hodlers.

Some wild and out of control thinning hairdo that he is trying to act as if it were normal, and also make him a fat and out of shape fucktard who tries to act like he is handsome and smarter than everyone else.

I kind of prefer the idea of a regular, real deal honey badger, better than any honey badger that would be putting on airs.

I had not even noticed, but then again I had not been in any kind of practice of smelling my moneys


Edit:

By the way, jbreher.., since I have you "on the line"....

It must have been some damned busy weeks for you since about early to mid March and thereafter keeping up with your buy/sell orders.   Even I had been a wee bit busy during these times because the BTC price had been moving so much.. not only down but back up too and back down and back up, and my BTC buy sell orders seem to have higher spreads than yours and also higher increments... but still a bit busy for me...

Seemingly a wee bit more busy for me, than I would want, but of course, there has been stacking of what is hopefully going to be longer term profits.

On an additional working note: I did go through some readjustments of some of my more immediate buy/sell orders, though, in the past few days because I wanted to feel a bit MOAR better prepared for possible down, even though I am quite hoping that we do not experience any more sub $5k prices.. but in these kinds of ongoing uncertain times, it seems best to be prepared for those kinds of severe possibilities.. somewhat in the spirit of the mantra:  "hope for the best and prepare for the worst."

Who is proposing that?  Link or it didn't happen.

Source?  You made that yourself, Phil?

Typical no coiners try to justify their actions, and talk BTC down, and point out as many negatives as they can, while trying to show themselves as objective.


I have heard negative stuff out of you previously, too, but I suppose it is somewhat easier to talk negative bitcoin stuff when you don't have any coins.


Sounds like a very reachable goal..



Exactly, your mind was melting, and maybe you did not even realize it.  Good thing you got out of bitcoin before your mind melted some more. 



Gotta do the greed and gambling in moderation.

Of course, greed can be characterized as a negative or as a positive.  As a positive, greed is merely just framing things in such a way that activities that are in your control directed in a way that is to be in your self-interests.

I already addressed this gambling issue in an earlier post, but surely, if you align your view of probabilities up, then you try not to bet against the probabilities, but just have realistic expectations, except maybe every once in a while you might just gamble a little here or there, as long as most of your life is secure, then you should be able to gamble with some aspects of your life that you don't mind if you lose or not.  For example, maybe in a card game with friends you might play for quarters rather than for $100s of dollars...keep the gambling part funzies rather than a central aspect of life.

If you start to get bad memory, and you realize that you are getting bad memory, wouldn't you have to change some of your procedures such as writing things down more?

Many people do like to try to stay mostly-self reliant, but of course, if possible, there could be help from "friends" but even with "help from friends" it seems to me that many people prefer to try to be self-reliant in order that they do not feel that they are becoming too much of a burden on others.

Perhaps one could read some humor in that.   

Like ground's hog day.... just keep doing it over and over and over until you get it right.  One of the problems with that fiction of ground's hog day is that in the meantime, you are getting older, so you don't get another opportunity to go into the stream at the same place, because the water is a bit different.

I should not even have to say anything.

Just look at your above statements, they are internally contradictory.

You cannot have a "great" system that is only prepared for one direction (or mostly one direction, as long the other direction is not too extreme).  Get real.  We already know that bitcoin has extremes, and if you buy on the way down and then you cannot sustain your buys, you just have to stop buying and just ride it out.  We have said this like a thousand times in this thread... I mean we said it enough that the practice should mostly be ingrained.

So, yeah, one aspect about your above statement is that you acknowledge that you lost control and therefore that you went too far in terms of throwing too much of your fiat (reserves) at the down movement too quickly.

I am not going to portray myself as some kind of saint, any of us who are trying to employ a kind of system that both DCAs and buys on dips is likely to run into some kind of variation of the problem that you describe, which is running out of money while buying on the way down, and at some point, as long as we are not getting really retarded in terms of attempting to employ leverage, we either have to tapper our buys down drastically in terms of amounts or the increments of the buys or we have to just completely stop and just wait it out... which could even take several months if the situation becomes a bit way too far out of wack.    


Join the club, especially when it comes to short term.. but when it comes to longer term, that is what we have to keep in mind, so even though the short term can both out pace expectations, it can also last way the fuck longer than we would like to happen... So waiting it out, might mean that you are 70% underwater for a decent amount of time (maybe 3 to 10 months or perhaps even longer), and maybe you would just keep dollar cost averaging into such a situation.  I was in a similar situation in the last half of 2014, all of 2015 and the first half of 2016.  I was 65% down at several points, and spent a lot of 2015 in the 50%-ish down.


Maybe that could be called conservative?  Switching over to dollars is not necessarily "conservative" because that is only one asset class, and so you end up having nearly all of your eggs in one basket.



I don't think that there is any right number, exactly, because once mindrust made the mistake of selling 10BTC ish at $4,500-ish and therefore going 100% into cash, there was some kind of calculation of factors.. NOT just the panic aspect but something else, also.

So, 50% might not be right.. but 20% to 30% or some number that is less than 50% might be right for the circumstances.  I actually don't know what that is, either, so I am not going to pretend to exactly be able to say what that number would be for mindrust. but I get your point, cryptotourist that likely anywhere between about zero and 20% might objectively be wrong numbers under almost any scenario.. including the fact that even mindrust is admitting that he made a mistake and regretting his decision and therefore, he is compounding one mistake on top of another.

I think that the number has to do with what realistic, true and not fantasy land probability mindrust assigns to up and what number he assigns to down (I could care less than two shits about whether he is correct or not or what number any of us assigns to the probability), and the amount that he puts back into BTC would some how make those numbers line up in such a way that his reinvestment back into BTC turns him into something close to a neutral in terms of how much emotions he attaches to either BTC price direction (and fuck it about whether he is right or not, that does not matter, because if he is lining up the numbers in such a way that he is emotionally neutral, the ultimate direction does not matter, and sure he can tweak along the way, too from time to time).. so his action would make him neutral and not give any shits either way.... something like that.

Of course, there is some kind of locking into taking these kinds of actions, but still when each of us takes an action like this, we are still empowered to do whatever we want, including changing it; however, if we truly engage with ourselves about our thinking about the asset, we should be able to make some kind of commitment that we do not have to change every time that BTC prices change by 3% or 5%.

That is actually a fair strategy, and if employed and conceptualized all by itself, then that signifies that you have already locked in and given up on the losses that you have already locked in...  which seems really weird, but I suppose that even you know that you are doing it.. while at the same time you are still torn about whether you are really locked into such losses.. go figure?



Sure, of course, you can decide for yourself what works for you and what is a reasonable way to consider the matter.  If you sell and then buy back lower, you can consider the matter in terms of making profits, and of course, your average cost per BTC for the ones that you sold is likely all over the place, and a little bit difficult to calculate, but you still, likely, probably have come up with some figures in regards to your cost per BTC.




I have my doubt that you are done with gambling because you seemed to have had been so fucking head deep into gambling in the way that you were thinking about your position and even the way that you have been thinking about your position in terms of getting out of it, so it remains somewhat weird for you to just assert that you are stopping gambling... when your mindset seems to be still foggy with a kind of gambling...

I surely don't want to become too presumptuous, here, because there are always going to be certain aspects of both your thinking and your situation that I have no real way of knowing, and therefore, you know more than any of us about certain aspects of yourself... including your risk tolerance and even some of your cashflow considerations and abilities to earn more cash and things like that (even if you have disclosed some of those details to us with the passage of time a decent number of posts in regards to these various topics).

In any event, no matter what, in life, we have to employ some gambling, so part of the question just remains regarding how much, and not that we can really completely say no to some level of gambling in order to actually be prudent and wise, we need a certain amount of gambling (even small amounts are going to make us more practical and prudent because a lot of things in life are based upon probability theories and not absolute, but we still have to make decisions based on what kinds of outcomes are more probable and attempt to assign fair values to those.. rather than either pie in the sky values or absolute values).

So even DCA investing into BTC does involve some gambling, including the gamble that in the long run BTC prices are going up.. and/or there will be a time in which you can cash out at a profit or at least a lesser loss of value if the whole investment goes south.

There are differing opinions about the extent to which some kinds of money has rippling effects in the economy.

Of course, giving money to regular people has amongst the greatest of rippling effects, but because of theories of moral hazard, there remains a decent amount of reluctance to get involved too much in mass distributions of money (even though on a temporary basis it might be good).

I personally don't buy the trickle down effect theories that would just say to throw money at anything, and including that sometimes when the banks were getting money, especially in 2008, they were not even giving out loans, but instead covering their own earlier bullshit bets or distributing to their CEOs...

So, of course, there is still going to be some trickle down and rippling effects when money is given to rich people, but surely there are going to be some kinds of distributions that have more rippling effects than others, and sometimes if there is strings attached to the money, then a certain amount of rippling effects can be forced by such strings if they were to be created... of course, if strings are too restrictive, then there can be problems with that, too.