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11361  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: July 11, 2014, 01:05:27 AM
Ive no idea why exactly but apparently the quality of DSL in Somalia is world class apparently and they're ready to install within a day or so of your request.    How far that good quality of
service might go Im not sure because they'd need a transatlantic link and they probably dont have it

http://www.balancingact-africa.com/news/en/issue-no-345/top-story/somalia-s-civil-war/en
http://sabahionline.com/en_GB/articles/hoa/articles/features/2013/01/07/feature-01

I thought they missed a trick in Afghanistan.   All that time they were there and trying to dismount the militia type occupation, they should have enabled as much wireless broadband as possible.   Its only by isolation and bullying that the Taliban or similar were able to dominate the local tribes.   Doesnt seem enough smart thinking was done, instead many smart bombs


I think this is more relevant to the fabulous wonderful world of federal reserves  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MancNnvHDFY
11362  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin or Gold? What would you pick? on: July 10, 2014, 05:54:30 PM
Or you could just use the plain ol' Archimedes' principle. And yes, I know that tungsten has almost the same density as gold, but not as good electric conductivity (mildly speaking). So no need for drilling or dangerous acids. Wink

Theres a 6.6% difference between the two elements and that is enough to sort one from the other without breaking the coin.  Bars need more attention but if you walk round with 1 kilo bars, I presume you have 'people' to expertise this


Here you go, pretty darn simple and immediate way to verify your cash.  Watch this demo of coin scales, etc - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgRuVRL00M8

Now compare that to dollar fiat and all this QE scheme, nobody is really clear on whats going on or certainly not in an immediate way can we say yes obviously this is a rip off and theft.  So fiat is a scamable entity

Bitcoin is more debatable.  My main argument is they need to make it foolproof.   Dont be elitist and say well the encryption is unbreakable because people havent a clue about that, they just see Mt Gox and other scams and see greater fraud then even happens in dollars.
My personal view is bitcoin is more secure then gold however thats as a unit to carry/use.   Im less certain of the value longterm exactly except it does seem very usable and useful
11363  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin or Gold? What would you pick? on: July 10, 2014, 12:58:47 AM
Im pretty dam old so I can remember 20 years ago and bitcoin would work still.   We arent going to reset that far unless its a full nuclear war then it'll be 1914.
The difficulty would be much slower but they had Pentium cpu back then and parallel processing.  Not that far off peer to peer and seti joint processing of packets and so on

Quote
3.) It's not accepted anywhere as money

4.) Verifying its authenticity is a hassle

Nope,  your off the rails there.   Its accepted many places, used as money for housing and large purchases maybe.  Not in the West because we finance everything with debt.   The real drawback maybe is negotiating a price but then you cant say bitcoin has an established price yet either.
The 'spread' is very large like you say, gold is a physical lumpy thing and theres personal security issues.    This is bitcoin needs to shine, sleek, slick, fast and secure.    It really needs to be click of the fingers easy to use because if they dont make btc as simple as email or text messaging then the banks will turn mobiles into ATM and they are not far off that now.

I can tap my card on a till and pay a bill in a few seconds, can btc do that anywhere even in theory.   Thing is if dollar goes down, theres plenty others and people can just use VISA and canuck dollars instead.   So gold is some backing to the normal banking system, many central banks do hold it and are buying more even and some like USA or europe are vastly negligent in their reserves and budgeting but the extreme is bitcoin which has no reserves of any kind and so it really needs to be king of transactional velocity and worth.  Still a way to go

Quote
4.) Verifying its authenticity is a hassle

No its quite simple.   Can it be done as simply as bitcoin, or cash actually yes if its in coin form.    Gold has a fixed weight and a coin fixed dimensions so you have two elements of the equation to prove absolutely you have your gold there.   What they used to do (obviously we stopped using coins of actual worth) is use fixed scales.  So you put a gold coin into a set trap, it will only fit this coin regulated dimensions and then it has to equal perfectly the weight.   Gold is a unique element so its really not possible to fake both weight and dimensions, so this quick test works and yes gold has worth as a transactional secure monetary thing!
11364  Economy / Services / Re: Passphrase recovery on: July 09, 2014, 01:48:14 AM
Kinda related but whats the current estimate on 8 digit brute force winrar crack?  Is that still years also
11365  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: cryptsy weekly drawings on: July 09, 2014, 01:31:15 AM
I dont think computers have the true ability to create random numbers.   Reminds me of years ago, I entered a grand draw and only bought 1 ticket but it was the very last ticket sold and yep I won the grand prize even though most other people were buying dozens of tickets; but I didnt complain ! :p  That was a 086 though, no doubt things are more complicated now but I think its a fundamental thing computers lack

Could also be that user was buying a heck of alot of tickets.   
11366  Economy / Economics / Re: Could take 5-8 years to shrink Fed portfolio: Yellen on: July 08, 2014, 07:09:33 PM
All boats rise in a rising tide is how Ive read that in articles IVe read.    I dont believe inflation is that perfect an effect and it benefits the rich far more then the poor.   Owning a Ferrari F40 in the last decade has been a profitable endeavour but that is partly because classic car collecting is such an exclusive pursuit to begin with, its not really helped your average Chevy owner; 'lifts everything' is unfortunately not linear, its uneven,  so tip over is more like its effects for many people.     Microsoft, Intel, Apple and a few others can issue their debt at a 1% cost, gigantic benefit to them and their shareholders so thats about as close to mainstream it gets imo; I dont believe that is filtering through to the public more like the 1% argument comes in here
 Your average worker really doesnt have assets in many cases but he will notice the rising cost of everything.     In that analogy I would say it creates turbulence, some boats break from their moorings unable to resist the increasing currents becoming rapids and some even sink :p

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_rising_tide_lifts_all_boats

You've definitely identified what Fed policy reflects, they really think they will make us better off but they are closer to fraud then benevolence

11367  Economy / Economics / Re: Could take 5-8 years to shrink Fed portfolio: Yellen on: July 08, 2014, 06:43:35 PM
1.04 to the power of 40        or 4% interest over 40 years is alot of growth = 480% I think

I assume if I take it as a decline in value compounded, then 4% less each year or 0.96^40 results in 20% left after 40 years.

Every time they give your gains, they exclude inflation usually.  If you ever wondered why you arent getting any richer, thats probably it.  Hence constant wage increases are demanded by unions which can lead to labour disputes and strikes, production disruption because a company doesnt necessarily have the money just because the workers need it and are poorer.
11368  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: July 08, 2014, 02:51:10 AM

Western Rome fell into a 600 year Dark Age and the population of Rome plummeted from 1+ million to 30,000. I call that Devastation. The peripheral markets boomed such as Byzantine, where there wasn't this inertia preventing adjustment.

Quote from: Armstrong
Government just do not get it. They are in serious trouble and the top 10% (free thinkers not richest) are moving be it stamps, coins, cars, art, real estate, whatever.

Classic cars are not a taxable event in UK, not sure about elsewhere but they are an ideal store of wealth.    Art is used in drug deals in place of cash as high value tokens of exchange, hence stolen art though it cannot be sold properly is used in this way and with alot less effort then collecting suitcases of dollars.

This is why diamonds are at the top of Exters triangle, in times of grand inflation their worth expands greatly but their actual worth to society is not fundamental hence its a bubble price.


The fall of Rome was not due to their use of technology and labour reducing devices.   They go over in the mp3 the debasement of currency and its effects on various parts of the empire, it became totally a command economy not capitalist in any way as merchants and trade previously had been free

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_commerce
11369  Economy / Economics / Re: Where can we see deflation being more contributive than inflation ? on: July 07, 2014, 01:25:40 AM
Stocks falling in 1929 onwards was a symptom not the cause of economic decline.   It may have been abrupt and disrupting to people, shares are forward looking but not the determiner of a companies fortunes.     I think then like now that bonds are far more important to funding companies balance sheets


Quote
With the FED system, a bank that is too big will never fail,
Seems like too absolute a statement.   FED can end up spinning its wheels at some point, they can only redirect value but they are not a creator or even a holder I think.  That would take real reserves and we know dollar is not backed or linked to solid value, FED is just forcing adjustments to what system dollar market participants populate.   Banks will fail and FED will do nothing as it will be too occupied trying to save itself, in the end it will sacrifice others for its own continuation
Quote
Deflation is usually a sign of recession

Deflation in prices while dollar loses value also would be surprising if demand were higher, it does seem to indicate a problem then.   The problem we got today is they are trying to force higher prices in order to create growth, thats such mixed up logic.   It cannot work that way, thats like me grabbing the cart and pulling the horse.   So long as the cart is going a good speed, the horse is doing just fine or maybe I pushed them both over a cliff

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies
I think this part of wiki must read like my first abc book of government -
11370  Economy / Economics / Re: IMF just snuck out a new wealth tax proposal/idea on: July 06, 2014, 02:04:24 AM
Quote
Proposing the idea that government bonds be allowed to be extended without triggering a restructuring credit event, no reduction in notional or coupon, but maturity extension drops your Net Present Value and is therefore effectively a wealth tax.

I dont think that'd be a new thing especially.  UK still has world war one debt on its books, thanks to some clever juggling it never has to expire.               IMF is just dusting off an old cookbook of chicanery and acting like its their recipe.

http://www.bondvigilantes.com/blog/2010/02/02/what-happened-the-last-time-the-uk-defaulted/

USA UK or any country with over 100% of GDP in public debt is unlikely to ever repay the value.  I guess its honest to just remove the fixed term, gov made it clear previously they can only pay interest by issuing more debt
11371  Economy / Economics / Re: Where can we see deflation being more contributive than inflation ? on: July 05, 2014, 03:01:28 AM
'Coin money and set the value there of'      Coin gold and silver, not completely make up what they feel like the value should be.

I find it hard to believe Milton is so happy to go along with the Fed when he has so many good ideas normally.  Just his basic premise, free to choose does not tend towards a central bank greater then all others and without choice like we currently have.  It is a system of force not economic competition, he really wanted more of this as a solution?

Capitalism itself is basically defined by the distribution of capital and ownership by the people.  Not a centralised system, not politically controlled for governments own benefit in their spending determination.   Its all warped so badly now, this is not capitalism
11372  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: July 05, 2014, 02:22:20 AM
Quote
adjustment phase is the megadeath killer every time...

If there is a gain from the technology then some will see unemployment but society is gaining all that time of change so in net total it is a positive not a disaster.      There is no good reason why USA would have to fail dramatically, that only occurs if events are totally unyielding.    As failure occurs, adjustment will happen.    As above, as some find their jobs are not useful or redundant they will transition elsewhere and it is reasonable to consider that some who lose jobs to new technology are richer in their new work.
    If this gov screws up the debt (further) and refuses to give way, it could end up in war but that is an absolute extreme.  It might also be that gov debt fails, they default or haircut the value and then we move on.   Some loss occurs, some are worse off but overall it is possible to benefit from failure and this is irony that is missed but perfectly possible.   When gov or failure occurs it could be the negatives from their current behaviour is no longer there and society benefits; this is the base line to capitalism .
  Ironically this struggle, and loss, win to business and constant competition is still a positive for all involved overall and that includes those who lose business, or lose money or in the case of an entire country losing their reserve currency.  It results in mutual benefit to discontinue inefficient practise

Devastation is a myth

Inflation and the Fall of the Roman Empire
http://mises.org/daily/3663
11373  Economy / Economics / Re: Please stop with mBTC, microBTC, ...! on: July 05, 2014, 01:42:59 AM
That is totally correct, anyone in advertising or really any normal kind of industry can relate to making a product as easy as possible to pick up.     Bitcoin is nowhere easy enough yet.   The stupidly long hash codes and so on, that cannot be the face of this product not if its really going mainstream.   6 zeroes for a value doesnt work either.
     When that kind of mechanical working to btc is kept in the cupboard where it belongs and nobody need have a clue what it is to use btc then thats when I see wider success possible.

Theres QR codes and thats a great time saver.   Dont want presidents heads for values, it could lit up red when sending 1 btc from a wallet, yellow for ten times less, green hundred, blue thousandth of a btc, grey for the degrees down to 1 sat.  Thats a simple enough grading to help stop accidentally entering the wrong number of zeroes, basically btc has to pass the drunk test :p  I doubt a colour is it but thats how simple any grading to value has to be for global everyday use.    whatever system has to more disposable, liquid and accepting to its users in its approach

http://satoshivalue.com/
11374  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] BlackCoin (BC/BLK) | PoS | Multipool | Coinkite | Mentioned on WSJ! on: July 05, 2014, 12:49:17 AM
I see a really big bar on the chart, maybe someone did buy a big chunk in honour of the forthcoming halo.  I'll setup a limit buy on polo in case it takes off, I was hoping to buy more much cheaper.  I dont mind holding bc or btc, they both equate imo.  If anything bc could be said to have more potential (in its userbase, utility, etc) for growth so why not
11375  Economy / Economics / Re: Where can we see deflation being more contributive than inflation ? on: July 03, 2014, 01:12:20 AM
Quote
Although there are certain technical differences between recession and deflation, both cripple the economy.

Deflation is in the monetary base used to transact in an economy.   Recession refers to the productive growth of the economy or GDP, especially with more people in a country its natural for more business to be conducted but it is separate from numbers of currency notes or digital transactions done daily.
   They are not linked in effect and vice versa; unfortunately neither do we grow automatically as a country because we have inflation.

The biggest point here is government debt.   That is the elephant on the see-saw.    Over 50% of GDP is done via politics so this is where the whole gravity of any argument starts to revolve to anything which can justify or make easier that burden of taxation, debt and so on.   In that context we cheer inflation especially now as many governments have no way to repay their debts up front.

Extreme levels of inflation in a currency and also deflation would mean price instability.   This represents inefficiency and possibly a restriction on business as contracts can no longer be written reliably.  One reference to that might be the airlines trying to account for oil prices.   We have giant reserves and production even with various wars and USA as a free country is a big producer however oil price can spike and that is a price instability partly stemming from easy money policy.


The ideal is perfect pricing or zero inflation and zero deflation, stable value to currency hence why gold was used as an element its unchanging where as politics can cause a countrys promise to repay debt become very unstable and so now its currency.   People argue against bitcoin as has no link to anything fixed, so it represents instability and a challenge for business so if it were deflationary that might be a step up as a recognisable trend
11376  Economy / Economics / Re: UPDATE: Silk Road Bitcoin Auction Winner REVEALED! on: July 03, 2014, 12:55:50 AM
I think is a bit strange, if I won an auction for some drug dealers yacht then I'd probably keep quiet about it.   They tend to want these things back, wont the SR people be gnashing their teeth right now, planning diabolical subterfuge from their cave dwelling bases.   Or were these coins seriously just one persons fortune,
11377  Economy / Economics / Re: Please stop with mBTC, microBTC, ...! on: July 03, 2014, 12:50:44 AM
Bits is already used elsewhere, I dont really agree with double usage here.   People can call it whatever like really, not saying otherwise but as a standard name it would conflict with computer sized bits.   Bits are most often used by the population to describe dsl speeds. Obviously bytes contains bits and so on.    

Sat and BTC works fine.   The main problem is the variation in value of BTC so we got these two extreme units of value and thats probably how it should be for now.    I hope value rises so I can get a drink for 100 sat or whatever, who knows and at that point we'll invent words ourselves as these transactions become common.
  Its been over a century since western economies regularly had deflation, falling prices.   We're unfamilar with the idea of the lowest value 'coinage' becoming greater but it could be the case for BTC and sat, we'll have to wait and see
11378  Economy / Economics / Re: Would people pour their cash into bitcoin given a stock market crash? on: July 02, 2014, 03:12:57 AM
Dollar index has fallen from 120 in year 2000 to below 80 now.   If it keeps falling like it has, that would seem to favour alternatives.   Thats a rate of 1.9% deprecation compounded so what is bitcoins annual inflation.  I know in theory its capped one day but now
11379  Other / Off-topic / Re: Best place to build the Bitcoin island in the international waters on: July 02, 2014, 03:04:22 AM
Funny but they arent short of land in that area so far as I know, all these skyscrapers in the desert are not required exacly.  I guess its no worse then Las vegas, society deems a point to it :p
  Just that all this work allows everyone to live by the sea?  In a hot country thats nice but when the sea level rises over a century isnt that really not great land to own
11380  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin or Gold? What would you pick? on: July 02, 2014, 02:33:04 AM
2 to the power of 256 is a 77 digit number?   That is hella big but my windows calc was able to give that number so Im amazed if its impossible to then count it or I guess my maths totally sucks and I really dont get why this is so hard to do

I know finding prime numbers is a big test for a computer or resolving the numbers on PI but if plain counting cannot be speeded up, optimised, thats surprising.    Gold can be artificially reproduced, however it really is not something you'd want to do as it is in the form of a radioactive element with a half life of about half a year so pointless I guess.  However I would speculate that maybe one day just possibly they could regularly cheaply produce stable gold and so break the 'reserve' capacity from its rarity.   Only reason I say that is at the same time I think they'd have 'free energy', we'd get nuclear fusion or whatever route allows us to stop fighting over oil, dynamics of society would massively change.    

Maybe that is the point I miss with that bitcoin picture, they are saying if this is not true then neither are alot of things so this is a reliable standard for sure now.   Gold is susceptible to a meteor landing here or on the moon even with giant amounts of gold, otherwise its 'secure' also?
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