One way my analysis could be wrong big-time: If most of the hash is botnet, and the controller(s) are big XMR holders, not just dumpers, they might withhold as much as they can without crimping their lifestyle, in expectation of higher future prices. That makes them more like enthusiasts than scale miners, in their behaviour. I agree with this. But if this were true, why have they dumped so low? I do not agree with this. The price is not "low" or "high." The price is what is is, which is a balance between the 22.6K coins mined per day and the willingness of investors (in which you may include various categories: whales, enthusiasts, short term speculators/traders, etc.) to make a net investment in this coin of about 50 BTC per day. If demand for such investment increases to 100 BTC per day, then the price of the coin will double. If demand drops to 25 BTC per day, the price will drop in half. I have to think that the hash is mostly not botnet, and the botnets were dumping while they were large in the hash, but now represent either holders or a much smaller proportion of the hash than they did previously.
I have no idea how much is botnets, and I don't really see any way to ever know, but I certainly think it is plausible that botnet owners might be bullish on the coin and therefore be making a decision to hold some of it rather than sell. Or it could be that they are selling through exchanges and privately. There is substantial demand to buy this coin in private off-exchange deals, I can tell you that from personal experience. |
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^I completely agree and still can't see what's the controversial.
The only controversy is that you seem to think that the response of miners (increased mining) to price increases matters. I don't think mining is important at all. What matters is whether people see enough of a future in this coin to invest (really speculate) in it, and at the present time with no practical uses that is all that matters. The rate of investment will determine the price. Further, I'd add that 50 BTC/day is really not very much, and even a few hundred BTC/day could be readily achieved. There is a lot of money floating around in the crypto space already, and the really big hedge fund money that could easily move thousands of BTC per day hasn't even arrived yet. The cost of mining absolutely factors in to the willingness of miners to sell. Any miner at scale who sold at a loss consistently would be bankrupted in short order, and cease to be a miner. By the same logic, any miner at scale who doesn't sell would also be bankrupted. The only exception would be a miner who covers his operating costs by way of capital investment. Approximately 22.6K XMR are coming into existence by mining every day. It doesn't matter what mining costs are, nor does it matter how many miners compete for that 22.6K. The same 22.6K is coming into existence, and needs to either be held by a miner (who then must invest to cover his own operating costs), or by other investors. 100% of the coins will end up being held by someone, and that holder is an net investor. In the short term the relationship between difficulty and price affects miners entering and existing the mining business, but it does not affect price. This was explained by dga here (I think, although it might have been on the XMR or BBR threads). It has also been demonstrated by a real academic study that statistically demonstrated a causal link from price to difficulty but not from difficulty to price (though for the past several months I have been unable to locate a link to said study). As explained earlier here by rpietila and myself, there is little difference between the miner himself investing, and the miner selling (directly or indirectly) to an investor. Either way the investment must occur because someone believes it to offer a favorable return. This sort of specialization can be natural and normal and desirable, but vertical integration between mining and investing can also at times be desirable. The bottom line is that price is determined (nearly -- excluding minor short term fluctuations in supply) entirely by demand to invest in the coin. |
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^I completely agree and still can't see what's the controversial.
The only controversy is that you seem to think that the response of miners (increased mining) to price increases matters. I don't think mining is important at all. What matters is whether people see enough of a future in this coin to invest (really speculate) in it, and at the present time with no practical uses that is all that matters. The rate of investment will determine the price. Further, I'd add that 50 BTC/day is really not very much, and even a few hundred BTC/day could be readily achieved. There is a lot of money floating around in the crypto space already, and the really big hedge fund money that could easily move thousands of BTC per day hasn't even arrived yet. |
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Thinking about starting a thread where people can petition for compensation for projects they have done related to monero. Do you think this would get be banned for doing altcoin giveaway?
I don't think it is banned unless you get paid for posting, but I'm not 100% sure. Best to check with the forum administrators first I guess. Check with who specifically do you suppose? SaltySpitoon? There is no specific moderator listed for the Altcoin section so I guess just post in Meta and ask. |
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XMR is just looking for a reason to go in bubble mode. At this point, anything could trigger it be it cryptsy adding it or an official GUI or whatever announcement they are gonna share with us in today's missive.
Hard to sustain a bubble when 22,000 coins are being mined everyday. A bubble would just invite botnets, who would promptly dump. So what you're saying is that XMR is unlikely to have a bubble, and will instead have a relative amount of price stability for a few years? Sounds like the complete opposite of a pump and dump and is instead putting coins into the hands of the people. Gosh. The price will vary, but can't stay too high for too long. Make it too profitable to mine and a lot of miners will come to mine it and sell it for BTC (and not only). Make it unprofitable to mine and you could make a good approximation of the miners supporting Monero for what it is; however, unprofitable to mine with the current XMR inflation per day is relative concept. 11% mined - 89% to go. This is incorrect. The amount of mining is constant, especially for XMR which has a decent difficulty adjustment algorithm Take a look at this graph: http://monerochain.info/charts/blocktime The block time hardly varies at all, despite there being huge changes in the hash rate at times. If more people mine, the difficulty goes up and the amount mined quickly returns to the baseline. This is one peculiar thing about bitcoin-style cryptos that makes them unlike other markets such as gold. If the gold price goes up, people mine more gold. But this doesn't happen with cryptos. Since supply is constant, price is determined entirely by demand. If demand goes up, price goes up. If demand goes down, price goes down. Which is why I continue to say that the way the price of the coin goes up is to make it more useful, or make it apparent that it will become more useful in the future. (The latter brings in speculators.) |
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Thinking about starting a thread where people can petition for compensation for projects they have done related to monero. Do you think this would get be banned for doing altcoin giveaway?
I don't think it is banned unless you get paid for posting, but I'm not 100% sure. Best to check with the forum administrators first I guess. |
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When looking at XMR emission curve I thought that the advantage of mining XMR belongs to early miners.
as a matter of fact you are wrong. The devs chose a smoothly varying, egalitarian block reward with a highly logarithmic emission curve. What that means is there will be a huge opportunity for everyone to get a fair share of xmr before it starts to go up in value as a result of the emission rate decreasing. The fact that what you are saying is indeed the complete opposite of the truth, and the fact that anyone who knows anything about xmr knows the truth, tells me you are most likely a paid troll from bcn =) Funny how bcn devs even with their 80% premine are not even resourceful enough to get more competent sockpuppet trolls with more than ~20-30 acivity score haha It doesn't really matter how perfect the curve emission is, in any coin the guy with the most hashing power gets most of the coins, nowadays I can only get like 0.1 a day lol. At some point in the future if and when you can actually use this coin for something useful 0.1 coins may be worth a lot. |
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1.15% daily inflation is numerically unsustainable and declines very rapidly, just due to 1.15% more market cap each day (and also the emission decline, thought that is a smaller factor). It will be cut in half in just the next three months, again less than six months later, etc.
Yes, I am aware of this. Talking about inflation, I'd think I could be of service in the workgroup that designs the XMR inflation rate in the far future when the "initial mining" inflation goes below 1% APR. My credentials are a major in Economics, plus an acclaimed forum member told me I'm among the TOP-3 monetary economists he has met. Has he met more than three?  I'm sure your input will be most welcome. |
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All of the XMR distributions from the bounty fund are now complete. Transaction details have been sent to the winners. There was fortunately no need for any additional deduction from neozaru's payment. All four payments were made in the exact amount specified (less standard 0.005 XMR fee), leaving a remaining balance in the bounty fund wallet of zero: [wallet 4BBi2m]: refresh
Starting refresh...
Refresh done, blocks received: 3
balance: 0.000000000000, unlocked balance: 0.000000000000
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(From then on it's different, because XMR needs daily demand to absorb the inflation, whereas BTC's price rise is capped by existing holders selling.)
BTC also has daily inflation -- 3600+ BTC/day. That is not peanuts, it is over $2 million/day, almost $1 billion a year that needs to flow into BTC to absorb inflation. Obviously BTC has more existing holders than XMR and therefore more of them selling, but the effect of those is significant for both. XMR daily mining is around 60 BTC, obviously not 100% of that is sold, yet exchange volume during periods of high activity has been quite a bit more than that, so we are seeing existing coins changing hands there as well. Plus off-exchange transactions of course. BTC daily inflation is 0.03% of market cap. XMR's is 1.15%. That is 1.8 orders of magnitude. Also BTC will be making thousands of people rich with a life-changing amount of money when it 10-doubles next time. There is hardly anyone with such large XMR holding (and so little other assets) that the coin's 10-doubling would change her situation at all. It is important to know these differences between coins, although my position is that the price appreciation curves will still look similar, although the source of the selling pressure is different. Good points. I'd add though, that 1.15% daily inflation is numerically unsustainable and declines very rapidly, just due to 1.15% more market cap each day (and also the emission decline, though that is a smaller factor). It will be cut in half in just the next three months, again less than six months later, etc. What does 10-doubles mean? |
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I want to report here on the status of the bounty payments. The bounty wallet should be considered closed at this time, please do not submit any further donations. First, I will be unable to make the BCN bounty payment immediately, because the current BCN code base from github fails to compile (on Ubuntu 12.04). Those payments will be held until I am able to perform a successful clean build of the BCN wallet. Regarding the XMR bounty, I received additional payments of 42 (block 92331) and 1000 (block 113551). I believe these are from wallet42 and NoodleDoodle respectively. This brings the total XMR wallet balance to 2676. This is slightly more than the total of the pledges in post #1 (the total listed there is incorrect, should be 2664) ./simplewallet --wallet bounty-gui
Height 92331, transaction <4abf2b4fe5dffa042d60a0f692c93452748bfd43758032bcde3d251f914f2202>, received 2.000000000000
Height 92331, transaction <4abf2b4fe5dffa042d60a0f692c93452748bfd43758032bcde3d251f914f2202>, received 40.000000000000
Height 113551, transaction <3ecef10841807580cd87210134e0d935e8f37725e1340d917e510187293f7cfe>, received 500.000000000000
Height 113551, transaction <3979c0b359c14a487ec621ff91900f1e4d52c53712dc6477e15da4c5386b43b4>, received 500.000000000000
Refresh done, blocks received: 101277
balance: 2676.000000000000, unlocked balance: 2676.000000000000
I am not holding the pledge of 5000 MINT from ficklepickle; the winners will need to contact that user directly to receive payment, if they have not done so already. The XMR payments will be as follows: jwinterm (5%) = 133.8 XMR BitKoot (5%) = 133.8 XMR Jojatekok (20%) = 535.2 XMR neozaru (70%) = 1,873.2 XMR The standard XMR transaction fee of 0.005 will be deducted from each payment. Neozaru's payment will be sent last and additional transaction fees or dust consolidation that end up being deducted by wallet (if any) will be deducted from neozaru's payment such that the entire balance of the wallet is paid out. Hopefully this will not happen, but I'm not sure. Payments will be sent shortly. |
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Stealth addresses only provide a small component of transaction privacy. They allow you to reveal a public address (for example on a web site or forum signature) without that public address by itself being able to be used to identify all of your transactions. This does nothing to prevent many other forms of blockchain analysis. For example, someone who sent you a transaction or to whom you send a transaction can trace that transaction to discover related ones. For example, if you pay for a glass of lemonade, the lemonade seller can trace back and see where you got your coins from, for example your salary or selling your house. When the lemonade seller uses those coins to buy supplies, his supplier can trace those coins back to identify his customers. Both stealth addresses and some form of mixing to defeat tracing are needed to provide robust privacy. |
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Remittences are about $400 billion per year.
I think you underestimate remittances substantially. Where did you get that? Is it intended to include central asia? I found it on some web site, since I was looking for a rough number to use. Wikipedia says $514 billion (though two years ago -- probably higher now). Numbers of that order of magnitude don't change my analysis, which was only intended to show that even a very large market adopting bitcoin doesn't necessarily lead directly to billions of dollars of value flowing into Bitcoin itself, and even if it does, that is a one time event, whereas inflation is ongoing (though the reward halving in a few years will obviously change things). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remittance |
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(From then on it's different, because XMR needs daily demand to absorb the inflation, whereas BTC's price rise is capped by existing holders selling.)
BTC also has daily inflation -- 3600+ BTC/day. That is not peanuts, it is over $2 million/day, almost $1 billion a year that needs to flow into BTC to absorb inflation. Obviously BTC has more existing holders than XMR and therefore more of them selling, but the effect of those is significant for both. XMR daily mining is around 60 BTC, obviously not 100% of that is sold, yet exchange volume during periods of high activity has been quite a bit more than that, so we are seeing existing coins changing hands there as well. Plus off-exchange transactions of course. over $2 million/day, almost $1 billion a year is nothing for the whole world..this is the internet.. there is still plenty of area to grow, like this.. www.coindesk.com/philippines-startups-fulfil-bitcoins-remittance-promise/Remittences are about $400 billion per year. For simplicity let's call that $365 billion. For $1 billion net to flow into bitcoin as a result of remittence uptake, the entire remittence market would need to transition to bitcoin, and one full day of remittences would need to be kept in bitcoin at all times (combination of in-transit and remittences that remain unconverted). Those are very aggressive assumptions, and they only cover one year of inflation. The next year you need to find another $1 billion to flow in. If the BTC price goes up, the amount required to cover inflation goes up as well (obviously this applies to every coin). |
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(From then on it's different, because XMR needs daily demand to absorb the inflation, whereas BTC's price rise is capped by existing holders selling.)
BTC also has daily inflation -- 3600+ BTC/day. That is not peanuts, it is over $2 million/day, almost $1 billion a year that needs to flow into BTC to absorb inflation. Obviously BTC has more existing holders than XMR and therefore more of them selling, but the effect of those is significant for both. XMR daily mining is around 60 BTC, obviously not 100% of that is sold, yet exchange volume during periods of high activity has been quite a bit more than that, so we are seeing existing coins changing hands there as well. Plus off-exchange transactions of course. |
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The conception of DRK was illegitimate, I will not buy it for this reason alone.
It is very unfortunate the launch happened as it happened. I was pissed off at the start too. The market has probably priced it in by now however. The market will continue to discount drk as a premine scam until it ceases to be a premine scam, forever. If there were not the alternative of superior cryptography with a fair launch and open development, drk might have surpassed ltc by now. That ship has sailed, however, and nothing will bring it back. Are you daft? The market has already decided that DRK has more potential than CN coins. The price is a representation of the market's view. All the nonsense that you guys spout on a daily basis has already been factored in. And yet it's many times larger than the next biggest anonymous coin. Everyone here is already making a bet against the market otherwise we would be 99.999% in fiat and ignoring crypto, as discussed a few pages back. Therefore, "the market has decided X" is an absurd statement to make here. If you believe the market, we're all wasting our time with crypto. If you don't believe the market in that respect, there is no reason to necessarily believe the market in other respects. |
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I was thinking that there no bugs in Fantomcoin. The system works that's why there is no posts from devs for a long time
LOL, really now. It's forked from the exact same code base. The same bugs (and deficiencies, such as incomplete or non-working RPC) that exist in the other forks (and are fixed in some of them) are in FCN as well. If no one is fixing the bugs in FCN it is because the developer has lost interest and moved on. |
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If I (or any one of us) had control of a botnet we would not be involved with Monero. Trust me. We would have much more profitable fish to fry (ransomware, for instance).
Uh, wow. lol. I hope you forgot the quote the /s in that post or something. Ilodin proved that he is a slandering troll with that post. I think he should be banned. I just quoted what he said. Stop trolling. You intentionally, with knowing deception and malice aforethought, created an inference that fluffypony has criminal intentions. This doesn't surprise me. It seems characteristic of drk advocates. It does give me certainty that you are a liability to honest discourse. Please feel free to prove me wrong by your behaviour. I didn't follow the whole chain here, but the original accusation/innuendo came from this post by "openyourmind" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg7802635#msg7802635If you look at the posting history for "openyourmind," especially the first page or so, you will see exactly the same pattern of one line light-on-content posts made to bump up the post count that you see with every single one of the troll/sock puppet accounts that have been relentlessly attacking Monero from day one. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=304231;sa=showPosts;start=20It is all quite amateurish to the point where I now find it amusing. |
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