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11501  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2020, 09:12:14 PM
but then i figure if folks like me we not actually using bitcoin what good is it?

so, no regerts.



Fuckin' a dude.

If nobody uses said commodity for its intended purpose, it is indeed no different from a Ponzi scheme. I can't help but think if there was more people with your mindset, Bitcoin would have arrived to a greater degree within the mainstream than it currently has. However, it is doing just fine, so hodlers HODL on, if you must.

I'd be a millionaire by now if I didn't keep spending 0.1BTC here, 0.05BTC there on takeaways and stuff over the years.
I like to think I helped the cause.
Though in reality, it probably ended up in the hands of whales :/

If you are in the accumulation phase of your bitcoin, then any spending of bitcoin should be obviously considered as having a replacement (a subsequent buy).

Once you get to your maintenance or liquidation phase, then you are likely to have a bit more flexibility, which might allow you to  consider the size and/or portion of your bitcoin a little bit differently, and surely maintenance means what it's name implies.....

In other words, no matter what phase you are in, you should be considering how you are spending your money in terms of gresham's law, and of course, spending the worse monies first, and if you are really depleting the size of your bitcoin holdings because of spending, then you likely have invested too much into bitcoin....   I am not saying that there is NOT any value in spending bitcoin, and I have spent some and found some value in trying to play around or figure out the bitcoin ecosystem in that direction... ... and so spending bitcoin would merely amount to whatever it's dollar value at the time, and so who fucking cares if it would add up to a $million right now.. because you still have to live, and most people can only stock so much away into investing, anyhow.

Right, I mean this all makes sense to me, but at the end of the day, Bitcoin's utility is what gives it its value. Gold doesn't have value just because it is scarce, it has value because you can do cool and/or useful shit with it. If everybody just HODLs bitcoin and nobody actually uses it, then we have a Tragedy of the Commons type situation on our hands where everyone is acting out of selfish interest at the expense of the common good, which inevitably dooms everybody.

Then there's this line of reasoning which I think is also relevant:



You are making the same point twice... and quoting Eric Voorhees... and both of you are incorrect...   Fuck that bullshit.. .  

Of course, you can spend bitcoin if you like, and there are plenty of folks spending it, but there is no reason to rush into such attempting to assert that bitcoin is less valuable because you cannot spend it enough today...   Yeah, it would be nice to ask my neighbor to take some bitcoin from me, but more than 90% of my neighbors don't know what the fuck bitcoin is...

I don't give any shits, and I can spend other kinds of money until they start to catch on and they end up buying from me at $75k... or whatever is the price when they start to understand the value of king daddy...

Anyhow, if you have other kinds of money to spend, then spend that crap, first.   The spending of bitcoin and the desire to spend bitcoin will come when it comes.... and surely, if had some kind of emergency, I can cash out some of my bitcoin for that, even if the vendor is NOT going to take it directly..,. There continue to be avenues to cash out bitcoin.. at least, so far, even though there does seem to be some passive/aggressive wars on bitcoin too.. such as shutting down of Local bitcoins and such as exchanges becoming more hostile and freezing liquidation avenues.

Regarding gold having value, it likely has less value because of its various utilities like industrial uses and jewelry.. I doubt that gold has value because of those industrial uses.. even though having gold as jewelry can be a decent way to transport some value without anyone really noticing..  

Gold seems to get a decent amount of its actual value from its scarcity and durability, and sure tangibility used to be a thing with gold and to be able to show it off.. and perhaps some of that tangible value in gold might come back during an apocalypse, Armageddon or something like that, but I am not going to spend much of my energies preparing for Armageddon.  

Most of us here should realize that bitcoin's value comes way the fuck more from how valuable it is in the scarcity sense and the ongoing sound money aspects including future expectations regarding how it's various use cases and adoption will continue to increase because of its soundness.  

Sure there are some systems in bitcoin that are going to be developed and continue to be developed to allow increased means to spend or cash out of bitcoin (and maybe even awareness will make it easier to just ask your neighbor if they will accept the payment in bitcoin), which surely are good things, but still no need to rush that shit.. and let those various shitcoins take up some of that spend as soon as possible space... that is if anyone trusts to hold any of those shitcoins long enough to transact in them..  
11502  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2020, 08:45:00 PM
Oh it wasn't a real bet, don't be silly, just a joke really. god. anyway i don't have that kind of money any more, it all went in a goating accident a while back. god. you people shouldn't take yourselves so seriously, nerds.anyways i let my cousin's friend use this account soemtimes so you just don't know what you're talking about..

Hahahahahaha

That's what bossian is going to be saying to LFC, either in late 2020 or in early to mid 2021... hahahahahaha..   You must be channeling the future Bossian.   Shocked Shocked


By the way, V8, maybe you could negotiate with HairyBairy to extend your bet by another year?  Of course, you are going to be right sooner or later, it is just a matter of time, no?
11503  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2020, 08:41:15 PM

I'd be a millionaire by now if I didn't keep spending 0.1BTC here, 0.05BTC there on takeaways and stuff over the years.
I like to think I helped the cause.
Though in reality, it probably ended up in the hands of whales :/

[...]

Basically, the situation I'm in is if I didn't have BTC to supplement my income I'd have a very sad life; never eating out, no holidays, no 'nice' things every-so-often.
I'm VERY lucky to have BTC. Very.

Funny, those are the first things I would skip to not have to spend my bitcoins.

Meh, I do understand P_shep, if some things can bring joy in your life then you gotta do some of those things.....

I feel a little bit badly, because similar to Jimbo, I am likely transitioning more into a kind of liquidation phase of my life, but that should not signify that I do not understand the trade offs that take place when guys (and gal) are in an accumulation phase.

Accordingly, I doubt that it is a good mindset to get into comforts of consumption and asserting that bitcoin has allowed you to consume more, especially if you are exercising that consumption and taking those rewards in such a way that is robbing from your future self.

Yeah, do whatever you want, it is your choice and your life, but I really doubt that I would be anywhere near as comfortable as I am today financially (which also gives psychological benefits, too) if I had been overly rewarding myself along the way.  Sure, there are ways to be frugal with your consumption and still live it up in various ways, but until guys and gal establish means in which they do NOT have to draw from their BTC in order to consume or NOT able to time their consumption towards ensuring that they are ONLY cashing out during times in which the BTC price is at high points rather than stripping themselves of their BTC stash, there should remain efforts to assess if guys (and gal) are still largely still building their BTC stash, especially during what they would be considering their accumulation phase.. and within parameters of their stash targets.

Sure, when I got into BTC in late 2013, I was likely advantaged in several ways because I already had a decent amount of capital that I could move from other investments into bitcoin, but I still wanted to attempt to control my entrance into bitcoin.

I created some BTC accumulation targets for myself, and I had some FOMO feelings, too, and I was kind of feeling stress that I was NOT going to be able to meet my own BTC accumulation targets... because the way that BTC prices were kind of staying high, so yeah, I welcomed dips and continued to buy, and some people would accuse me of being dumb because I was buying BTC all along the way through the whole 2014 downtrend, rather than waiting for the BTC price to go down (which was far from certain in my thinking and so in some sense I had to hold myself back from blowing all my allocated wadd of fiat too soon in terms of my ongoing purchasing of BTC and to continue to pace myself throughout).   

There is a certain amount of artificiality in a lot of these considerations about goals of how many BTC is wanted or how many dollars should be spent and blah blah blah because sometimes my goals would be established in terms of quantity of BTC that I artificially thought that would be good to have, but then there was also some measurings in terms of the dollar value, which was kind of strange too, in a kind of juggling sense.  So, everyone likely can appreciate what was happening to me during the 2014 and 2015 period, there was some perception of the amount of BTC was surely going up, but the dollar value was going down and not even close to the value of what I had put in... sure other guys have talked plenty about that, too.

Even after I had felt that I had largely accumulated enough BTC in late 2014 and reached my goals (as my goals had gone up, too), I still could not feel comfortable spending BTC through the vast majority of 2015 or 2016, even though my BTC holdings had largely gone into profits territory.. so yeah, there was a bit more comfort the more that the holdings were in profits, to shave a bit off here or there and even reconsideration that I had already largely met my goals by late 2014, anyhow, so based on my having had really overinvested by continuing to DCA through 2015 and 2016, it was not like I was feeling like I had any shortage of BTC... in terms of considering my initial goals.. and then the subsequent price movements of BTC greatly going beyond the most bullish of expectations.

Accordingly, I might feel some guilt in some sense that I have no really druthers about shaving some BTC off here or there and even living it up from BTC, to the extent that I want to, yet I doubt that I could have reached such a status in my 20s or 30s because there is almost no way that I would have had enough capital to have been able to reach such a comfort levels, and surely my amount of leveraging, in any situation would have been limited, and even with decent leveraging, it would have been quite difficult to reach real comfort levels in terms of feeling that I had accumulated enough in order to transition into consumption with my BTC.. and then regretting the consumption later, anyhow, I am going to stop for now, since I might (perhaps?) be getting a bit repetitive here anyhow.. not that it matters, too much...  Tongue Tongue Tongue
11504  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2020, 09:09:19 AM

I'd be a millionaire by now if I didn't keep spending 0.1BTC here, 0.05BTC there on takeaways and stuff over the years.
I like to think I helped the cause.
Though in reality, it probably ended up in the hands of whales :/

If you are in the accumulation phase of your bitcoin, then any spending of bitcoin should be obviously considered as having a replacement (a subsequent buy).

Once you get to your maintenance or liquidation phase, then you are likely to have a bit more flexibility, which might allow you to  consider the size and/or portion of your bitcoin a little bit differently, and surely maintenance means what it's name implies.....

In other words, no matter what phase you are in, you should be considering how you are spending your money in terms of gresham's law, and of course, spending the worse monies first, and if you are really depleting the size of your bitcoin holdings because of spending, then you likely have invested too much into bitcoin....   I am not saying that there is NOT any value in spending bitcoin, and I have spent some and found some value in trying to play around or figure out the bitcoin ecosystem in that direction... ... and so spending bitcoin would merely amount to whatever it's dollar value at the time, and so who fucking cares if it would add up to a $million right now.. because you still have to live, and most people can only stock so much away into investing, anyhow.

Surely, any of us who have the ability or the actual fortune to have an income that is greater than our living expenses should feel grateful to be able to do that, but we are still tasked with trying to figure out our own budgets and figuring out how much to live within our means including the value of deferred gratification, when possible.   So, yeah, it makes way more sense to be living it up with a lot of luxuries maybe including buying cups of coffee when you can make it much cheaper without loss of quality and when you have a lot of extra value coming in versus if you are in a stage of setting up your investments, including if you are in a BTC accumulation stage.

Basically, the situation I'm in is if I didn't have BTC to supplement my income I'd have a very sad life; never eating out, no holidays, no 'nice' things every-so-often.
I'm VERY lucky to have BTC. Very.

Fair enough.   I don't necessarily want to prejudge the situation of any participant here in this thread, and of course, there is going to be a decent amount of variation between the financial status and even personal circumstances (or limitations) of various members in this thread for a variety of reasons.
 
By the way, I also recognize the desire to treat yourself once in a while, and sometimes those treats are necessary (even psychologically) and sometimes they are not.  There might be areas that can be cut more, but then other times, there might not be any area that can feasibly be cut... or like you are suggesting, you are already NOT able to really treat yourself very much at all.  

Also, sometimes cutting could jeopardize your health in terms of quality of food or nutritious foods versus some foods that might be cheaper but they might cost you more because they are not good for your health.... which might go to the quality of foods of eating out versus eating in, and yeah, if you don't really eat out too often, then you may have already come to realize those kinds of savings...

I have frequently argued that BTC will also be a prudent choice for very poor people who cannot save very much money, but surely even in those situations, the poor person should not want to end up in a position in which s/he is having to spend BTC at a loss... so hopefully, at least, any time that any person is cashing out small amounts of BTC, s/he is at least cashing those portions out at a profit... and even better if s/he is cashing out at a time of his/her choosing rather than being forced into cashing out merely because s/he over-extended and bought too much BTC at the wrong time.
11505  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2020, 08:01:46 AM
HOW MUCH BITCOIN YOU NEED TO BE IN THE RICHEST 1% OF BTC HOLDERS

Quote
According to the BlockWorks Group analyst, you only need 0.28 BTC to be in the top 1% richest of the world (in BTC terms).

No more than 5-10 million people will ever own a full Bitcoin

This naturally implies an unfair distribution of the wealth as “whales, hodlers, nations and institutions” hold the lion’s share.


  Bitcoin is distributed perfectly fairly based on the time, effort and passion each person put into acquiring and holding their share.  The only natural implication here is that most people ignored Bitcoin until it was too late for them to afford their "fair" share.  Do people get paid to write this tripe?

Xhomerx10...  The official: "WO party poop of the day."

Don't you realize, homer, that us early(ier) adopters with .28BTC or more want to feel MOAR better about our lil selfies and our decision to get into BTC... and therefore, appreciate that we are part of an "elite" class and there are lot's of peeps who have less BTC than us...? actually 99% of peeps....   Tongue
11506  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2020, 06:12:58 AM
[edited out]

JJG I am delighted that I have had the opportunity to make you so happy. And myself as well. Truly a win-win.

Now I just need to get that fuck V8 to pay up.

Oh yeah... i had lost track about the exact ending date of such bet, which seems to have unambiguously ended on the 19th.. .

I recall that V8 had wanted the date of the bet to run one year from the time that the bet was made, which seemed kind of long, but reasonable, too, and so yeah, I was able to find the series of posts (below)

Seems like it should not be a problem to receive payment from V8 within a few days of the ending of the time-period of the bet, and of course, there could be reasons that reasonable delays of payment could happen, too.

Actually, the amount of .012 BTC did NOT really seem to be too much at the time, but surely we consider that the price of BTC has gone up nearly 3x, so the amount does seem like a bit more, when thinking about it currently.

 

re: The bottom is in bet.
HairyMaclairy bets that it is.
Last of the V8s bets that it is not.
One litecoin.
I'd rather only bet against Hairy, but thanks for the offers @kurious, @arriemoller.
I'd want no upper limit as was suggested, as I think it could fluctuate higher than that and still come down lower.
Bitstamp low of 3122.
If Bitstamp becomes unavailable, how about preev, bitcoinaverage? some other named exchange?
I'd want a year just to keep it simple, though I do think it could happen later than that (3.7% likelihood for JJG).
Would be happy to send my litecoin to escrow if needed.
Payment in btc equivalent is acceptable. No one actually wants the shitcoin itself.
If that's agreeable...


Agreed.  If the Bitcoin price falls below US$3,122 on Bitstamp (or if Bitstamp not available for any reason, Bitcoinaverage Global Bitcoin Price Index USD) at any time prior to 20 February 2020, then Hairy will pay V8 BTC0.012.  If the Bitcoin price does not fall below US$3,122 prior to 20 February 2020, then V8 will pay Hairy BTC0.012.   


Propose to lock in current LTC exchange rate of approx BTC0.012 (Bitstamp) to keep it simple.  Please quote above if amenable.

Agreed. It's a bet. Good luck Mr. Maclairy.

Good luck Monsieur De La V8s
11507  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2020, 05:34:24 AM
I actually LOVED it,

Good good, here's how I pictured it:



Oh my!!!!!!!!

The above does not paint me in a very good light.  Embarrassed

so embarrassing.

11508  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2020, 05:15:42 AM
but then i figure if folks like me we not actually using bitcoin what good is it?

so, no regerts.



Fuckin' a dude.

If nobody uses said commodity for its intended purpose, it is indeed no different from a Ponzi scheme. I can't help but think if there was more people with your mindset, Bitcoin would have arrived to a greater degree within the mainstream than it currently has. However, it is doing just fine, so hodlers HODL on, if you must.

I'd be a millionaire by now if I didn't keep spending 0.1BTC here, 0.05BTC there on takeaways and stuff over the years.
I like to think I helped the cause.
Though in reality, it probably ended up in the hands of whales :/

If you are in the accumulation phase of your bitcoin, then any spending of bitcoin should be obviously considered as having a replacement (a subsequent buy).

Once you get to your maintenance or liquidation phase, then you are likely to have a bit more flexibility, which might allow you to  consider the size and/or portion of your bitcoin a little bit differently, and surely maintenance means what it's name implies.....

In other words, no matter what phase you are in, you should be considering how you are spending your money in terms of gresham's law, and of course, spending the worse monies first, and if you are really depleting the size of your bitcoin holdings because of spending, then you likely have invested too much into bitcoin....   I am not saying that there is NOT any value in spending bitcoin, and I have spent some and found some value in trying to play around or figure out the bitcoin ecosystem in that direction... ... and so spending bitcoin would merely amount to whatever it's dollar value at the time, and so who fucking cares if it would add up to a $million right now.. because you still have to live, and most people can only stock so much away into investing, anyhow.

Surely, any of us who have the ability or the actual fortune to have an income that is greater than our living expenses should feel grateful to be able to do that, but we are still tasked with trying to figure out our own budgets and figuring out how much to live within our means including the value of deferred gratification, when possible.   So, yeah, it makes way more sense to be living it up with a lot of luxuries maybe including buying cups of coffee when you can make it much cheaper without loss of quality and when you have a lot of extra value coming in versus if you are in a stage of setting up your investments, including if you are in a BTC accumulation stage.
11509  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2020, 04:51:38 AM
"Some Bitcoin promoters are deliberately misrepresenting my concession that anyone who bought Bitcoin 10 years ago and sells now will make money as an endorsement of buying #Bitcoin today. It is not. Those who buy today and sell 10 years from now will likely do so at a loss."

https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1229742185651851266

LOL, I wonder what he will say as the years go by and he gets proven wrong over and over, just like for the last 6 or 7.

So far, history has shown that bitcoin has always been higher at any point 4 years after purchase, and of course, at some point that might no longer be true.  There is also the problematic nature that an investment, such as bitcoin that starts from zero is going to have pretty steep performance once it gets a value that is much above zero... So for example, maybe we could start measuring bitcoin's value in 2011, and bitcoin was valued in about a $2 to $7 price range for a large portion of 2011.  Seems like a decently fair starting point to start measuring bitcoin's advancement from there.

Also, we know that no investment is guaranteed, but bitcoin still seems to show pretty strong signs of continuing to be a good investment, even looking at a 10 to 20 year time horizon into the future.. and one thing about being a free-willed individual, we are empowered to change our minds or our investment strategies at any time that we chose, but those people who have invested into bitcoin and have held their bitcoin for longer periods have tended to do well with their bitcoin investments (so far), and even though there is no guarantees about future performance based on past performance, the current evidence still seems to support bitcoin as an investment, at least as a way to hedge 1% to 10% of investment assets and currently, there is no real evidence to suggest that anything is changing in regards to the ongoing investment thesis into bitcoin, except perhaps becoming stronger and stronger and stronger with the passage of time in a kind of Lindy effect kind of way.   

Like Lambie bambie asserts, seems like Peter is going to just continue to be wrong and wrong and wrong, but stubborn as Peter is, he is NOT likely to give up with his nonsense, even if he is shown to be a fool in the next 10 years.
Enough with this 1 to 10 percent.  Roll Eyes 10 percent should be the minimum a coiner invests in King Bitcoin.  Cheesy

You do what the fuck you like, lambie bambie.  I could give less than two shits. 


This 1-10% message is talking to the everybody and to the no coiner to get the fuck off of zero.  Hey, yeah, I get it that many active participants in this thread are already off of zero and are already likely in the 1-10% arena, if not higher, but ultimately, whatever people do, they are best to be tailoring their approach to their own situations in terms of their cash flow, other investments, view of bitcoin versus other investments, timeline, risk tolerance and time and skills to learn more and/or manage their portfolios including trading and making sure that their life expenses are adequately covered.

Getting off of zero is going to come a long way for a lot of people, especially since we still likely are not even approaching 1% of the world population into bitcoin in any kind of meaningful way.

Likely 1-10% speaks to people who are already balls deep into bitcoin too at least in terms of already establishing their initial stake into bitcoin, and surely there is going to be a decent amount of variance in terms of when people got into bitcoin.  Some people may have started out investing into bitcoin in a bit of a timid manner or they really did not have a lot of capital to inject into bitcoin from the start, and they may have even witnessed the 2015-2017 price run while being on the low side of 1-10% or even that amount of money did not add up to very much for them because se they did not have a lot of capital that they were able to work with.

So, yeah, there is likely little to no get rich quick with bitcoin, even though there can be some gambling towards making bets that bitcoin is going to do another exponential growth that did pay off with some luck or could pay off again with some luck, and surely I do not recommend that anyone invest like that, even though there are certain number of people who might be inclined in that direction, and that is on them to tweak their style in that direction, if they so choose.


Also long term winning for Bitcoin is guaranteed as long as humanity doesnt go extinct. Incorrect usage of my name will result in more GayJaunGee branding as well.  

If you are so fucking stupid as to really believe that long term winning in bitcoin is guaranteed, then that is your choice.  I doubt that very many prudent people agree with you and/or are willing put everything on black in that direction.  I certainly would not recommend such a gambling approach with anything more than a fraction of anyone's wealth or credit.

Surely, if anyone has already been able to ride out one or two exponential periods of bitcoin's growth while having a decent amount of value invested into bitcoin, then there are good chances that the bitcoin portion of their investment has sufficiently increased in value in which they are faced with decisions about whether to reallocate or the extent to which to reallocate - which is also going to depend on their individual circumstances, including their cash flow, other investments, view of bitcoin versus other investments, timeline, risk tolerance and time and skills to learn more and/or manage their portfolios including trading and making sure that their life expenses are adequately covered.

If someone has their life expenses adequately covered and they are pretty solid in their various investments, I surely do not recommend reallocating back down to 1-10%, especially if their gained value has come from bitcoin price appreciation.  There is a kind of concept in investing regarding increasing your chances of getting richie faster and to a higher level by letting your good investments ride (rather than reallocating them), and I am surely not opposed to such an approach to bitcoin, including that I personally invested a bit over 10% in 2013/2014 to establish my initial stake in bitcoin, but my BTC portfolio has grown to become a much greater than 10% portion of my wealth, and in about early 2017 I decided to let that bitcoin aspect ride and have reconfirmed my "let it ride" commitment on a large number of occasions since then. 

But, I consider that my particular fortune in bitcoin should not be skewing either my discussions of the topic in a thread like this with "everybody" or my discussions with the no coiner / fence sitter or the under committed bitcoin investors, and starting with 1% to 10% remains as great starting out recommendations.... that is surely able to be tweaked by anyone who really embarks upon engaging with the various aspects of his/her own situation to tailor his/her BTC investment approach to his/her circumstances -  even while I also understand that if someone is really young, this category of person might hardly have any investments at all, and for those people, they might start out only investing in one asset while they are building their initial stake, which could end up being bitcoin and then branching out after their investment has had some time to mature and appreciate (hopefully, in the case of investing all into bitcoin, their remains a prudent approach that does mature and price appreciates).

I do get the sense that you, lambie bambie, might be one of those snot-nosed younger investors who surely might not have any other investments or responsibilities in life, and surely in those kinds of cases, it could surely be prudent to start out aiming towards 100% start in terms of establishing a stake, and then diversifying as the investment grows including as you might start to perhaps acquire some real world expenses after you move out of grandma's basement.  So, yes, I will concede that there could be some people in which 100% starting out in bitcoin only could be practical and prudent while establishing early investment capital, but that still does not mean that any of this kind of investment approach is generally applicable or that it would even be a prudent approach for a more mature investor who might have a complicated set of expenses and life style that is already staring them in the face while they are considering getting into bitcoin by getting off of zero.
11510  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2020, 04:48:33 AM
Imagine selling some or all of your stash at the very beginning of a bull run.



Like i did 2017. But i bought back in only days later (18% loss in fiat equivalent). Lesson learned, thanks.
But yeah, this was not the very beginning of the bull run.


We still seem to be in early 2016.... so yeah, seemingly pretty early in this particular run.... there will likely be a quite a few peeps shaken, even on the way UP, even in the next year or two.. while they are contemplating that either the top has been reached or that they might be able to catch a down wave, perhaps, but perhaps not.
11511  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2020, 04:42:26 AM
No mercy for shorters. I love to take the money of those stupid people that sell bitcoins.
You have to agree that we earn only to spend there is no point in grabbing it without spending it if you need to spend.

Another way of saying that you have likely overinvested if you cannot figure out ways to mostly accumulate BTC and spend your other crappy money... hopefully, you have some of that crappy money to spend.. #greshams_law
11512  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2020, 04:08:13 AM
"Some Bitcoin promoters are deliberately misrepresenting my concession that anyone who bought Bitcoin 10 years ago and sells now will make money as an endorsement of buying #Bitcoin today. It is not. Those who buy today and sell 10 years from now will likely do so at a loss."

https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1229742185651851266

LOL, I wonder what he will say as the years go by and he gets proven wrong over and over, just like for the last 6 or 7.

So far, history has shown that bitcoin has always been higher at any point 4 years after purchase, and of course, at some point that might no longer be true.  There is also the problematic nature that an investment, such as bitcoin that starts from zero is going to have pretty steep performance once it gets a value that is much above zero... So for example, maybe we could start measuring bitcoin's value in 2011, and bitcoin was valued in about a $2 to $7 price range for a large portion of 2011.  Seems like a decently fair starting point to start measuring bitcoin's advancement from there.

Also, we know that no investment is guaranteed, but bitcoin still seems to show pretty strong signs of continuing to be a good investment, even looking at a 10 to 20 year time horizon into the future.. and one thing about being a free-willed individual, we are empowered to change our minds or our investment strategies at any time that we chose, but those people who have invested into bitcoin and have held their bitcoin for longer periods have tended to do well with their bitcoin investments (so far), and even though there is no guarantees about future performance based on past performance, the current evidence still seems to support bitcoin as an investment, at least as a way to hedge 1% to 10% of investment assets and currently, there is no real evidence to suggest that anything is changing in regards to the ongoing investment thesis into bitcoin, except perhaps becoming stronger and stronger and stronger with the passage of time in a kind of Lindy effect kind of way.   

Like Lambie bambie asserts, seems like Peter is going to just continue to be wrong and wrong and wrong, but stubborn as Peter is, he is NOT likely to give up with his nonsense, even if he is shown to be a fool in the next 10 years.
11513  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2020, 03:30:18 AM
You promising that, Hairy?

 Wink


Would you trust a degenerate bull hatter?  

I have my hesitancies to trust anyone on the interwebs; however, I would like to have some potential ammunition in case you happen to be wrong... That would help to make me feel moar gooder about myself.

In that case, you should definitely trust me. 

Wink

Seems to me that I got enough of an assertion from you so that I can have my cake and eat it also.

If you are correct, I will agree that you happened to be correct in your admirable conservative prudence, yet if you end up being wrong, I am surely going to be happy with that outcome, too... and even to wave wrongness in your avatar.. maybe even request that you eat your hat?

 One of the problems is that you would likely feel happy about being wrong, too.... So, I remain uncertain regarding which of us is going to come out MOAR smuggily happy in such a bizzaro "hairy wrong world"...   

Accordingly, I would anticipate you NOT complaining regarding how, by quirky chance, you had happened to have become much moar richie than expected on an even faster than expected timeline.   Lips sealed
11514  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Craig W. only claims to be Satoshi, because he knows the real Satoshi is dead? on: February 18, 2020, 10:57:39 PM
Just an idea. If Craig Wright is NOT Satoshi Nakamoto, he would definitely risk the real Satoshi come up with a proof, that Craig is not SN. Is it possible, that CW explicitly knows about the death of the person behind SN, so he can make his claims without backing them up with a proof?  Roll Eyes
We don't know! We don't have any knowledge who is the real satoshi Nakamoto is and if he is still alive or not. We don't know why mr. Craig Wright is claiming that he is the real Satoshi Nakamoto, but the thing is what if he really knows who Satoshi Nakamoto is? And he already know that the real Satoshi Nakamoto doesn't have the plan on revealing himself so Mr. Craig Wright is claiming it in order to gain the popularity that he wants. What if that is the case?

I don't mean to be too dismissive about potentially valid explorations that might be raised, but these kinds of pie in the sky speculations regarding what might be potentially "valid" CSW motives are common tools for trolls and shills to place too much emphasis on what is highly unlikely rather than focusing on more plausible scenarios...

In this case, the more plausible scenario is that the CSW is a fucktwat scam artist that just makes shit up and throws spaghetti at the wall until something might stick, and in that regard, it does not matter hardly at all to speculate in a way that attempts to cause CSW to appear anything less than narcissistic and/or deluded in regards to what he knows or might know.
11515  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 18, 2020, 08:10:50 AM
You promising that, Hairy?

 Wink


Would you trust a degenerate bull hatter?  

I have my hesitancies to trust anyone on the interwebs; however, I would like to have some potential ammunition in case you happen to be wrong... That would help to make me feel moar gooder about myself.
11516  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 18, 2020, 07:59:26 AM

More like 15-16K if we are 100% following the graph, which we are not  Tongue

No ATH in 2020.  

You promising that, Hairy?

 Wink

Who sold at the bottom?  Cool

I'll be selling a bit at the bottom in a month or 2 at about 15k Cheesy

How much is "a bit"?

And, what if the price has some troubles getting past $13,880 for a few months?  Can you wait, "a bit" for your "a bit"?
11517  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 18, 2020, 07:54:48 AM
So yeah, a person should have a 'go to hell' plan on how to wrap stuff up.

I'm 65 years old on March 24th, 2020 and in 15-20 years I'd have to do such downsizing anyway...but if things really go to sh*t I'll do it a hell of a lot earlier!

(Best to have a get out of Hell plan, lowest BTC you'll keep HODL and stubbornly die with if that's what it takes, and of course, traditional investments cashed out and such.)

In such a world a lot of people would go 'screw this' and minimalize their life, especially clutter, and especially if you are retired and over 66 years retirement age.

 Anyway, end of rant, but a likely plan, if things get worse.

(remember the days of 7 years ago, when everybody said things were gonna get better and working together was the plan) Smiley

Personally, it seems to me that you have a mission to view matters negatively.

In regards to where the fuck we are at in bitcoin.. .hey, I am happy as fuck.  You know what?  I was there with you in 2013.. maybe not exactly in the same capacity, but I went through a couple of years (arguably 3 years) of pretty dire BTC price performance, especially if measured from the top to the bottom and the time that it took to get back, and it seems to me that, as far as BTC price goes, we are way the fuck ahead of a vast majority of possible scenarios, and we are actually within a world (of what actually happened) that is amongst the best of possible BTC price performance scenarios...

We are floating well above 30x of our $250 bottom of 2015.... hardly imaginable during that period... but here we are, and I am happy as fuck about that.

Furthermore, there are real decent possibilities that we are going up from here...   Yeah, going up is not guaranteed, but we remain in a great place.. .and could be way the fuck worse.

Regarding your age:  Hey, I am more than willing to accept that a lot of things start to deteriorate with aging... and I have been experiencing it myself, but it feels really good to have BTC within my options, and I already acquired the vast majority of what I am likely to need.

Sure if you are getting older, it is nice to have been able to have already accumulated a decent amount of BTC....

But even if some folks are just getting into BTC, it is NOT too late.. even though some of us are way the fuck ahead of those folks... but each of us has to do what we can with our budget, and any guy (and even gal) who has been able to hang onto a decent amount of BTC until today, is in a very envious position, because as mentioned earlier, there are a lot of normies who have been quite struggling to get to double digit bitcoins... and there are likely to be even more who are struggling to get more than 1 bitcoin.   Even the 21 bitcoin club seems to be like pie in the sky, so each of us just has to do what s/he can, and surely be grateful if you have been able to acquire a decent number of your coins in the triple digits of dollar prices.. or even in the lower 4 digits of dollar prices.
11518  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Craig W. only claims to be Satoshi, because he knows the real Satoshi is dead? on: February 18, 2020, 06:08:19 AM
There are way too many theories about this. We can only assume and speculate. But in the end, I think it doesn't even matter.

It may not matter who Satoshi is, but it does matter if someone is fraudulently misleading others into believing that he is Satoshi and is otherwise engaging in behaviors that are used to attack bitcoin... especially if some of the attacks and misleading efforts are effective in the short term.  Sure, maybe in the long run, those various attacks on bitcoin will not be successful, but in the meantime, there will be some innocent people who are damaged during such scammening attempts, which should matter, no?

Quote from: johnyj
But I guess he lost his keys to most of the early day bitcoins,

If that is actually the case then he lost the identity of Satoshi aswell. No keys = No Satoshi or Lost Keys = Lost Satoshi's Identity. It's as simple as that... Besides, why would such an ingenious person who has deep understanding of some very low level constructions of early bitcoin architecture would fail to keep a single private key of his addresses? Roll Eyes I have skype conversation almost a decade old still saved on 3 flash drives for one of my web app which has achieved nowhere near the success of what bitcoin has amassed but I still have it just as a proof of sorts, I find it hard to believe that the person who invented bitcoin didn't know how to take care of his keys, even if they were worthless. It makes a nice bedtime story but in real-world speculation gets us nowhere.

TBH I don't think I will be ever satisfied with any proof of sorts. Keys can exchange hands and technical knowledge of Bitcoin /Blockchain can be learned. At the end of the day even if the Real Satoshi decided to come back and say hi, I don't think I will be able to trust that person. Basically you will be trusting the judgement of Theymos and few devs who worked with Satoshi and one of them has already got their judgment in question ( Gavin ), as @xtraelv mentioned... So for me, at least the Identity of Satoshi will forever be a mystery and I am pretty satisfied with that...

I agree with everything that you say, Thekool1s, except maybe I would quibble somewhat with any kind of absolute assertion regarding the extent to which it would matter if satoshi really did show up or was found out.  

Sure, it is likely true that satoshi showing up should not matter too much to the actual development of bitcoin, because bitcoin has gone down a community consensus path that should, in theory, be quite difficult for any single person to change, even if Satoshi did identified himself (or was unambiguously identified) (and sure, he could already be involved in the space in an ongoing way, but we just had not known his true identity).  

So, yeah, if Satoshi were to show up, then how he showed up, and if he changed his behaviors, such as beginning to move around a lot of coins, then those kinds of behaviors could have a very strong affect on bitcoin, especially in the short term and public perception, including causing his identity to matter based on what kinds of conduct that he engaged in or where he had been during this whole time (the extent of his continued involvement).

Furthermore, let's say for example, that AGD's speculation that Satoshi is dead were to be correct, and in that case there could still be some concerns about the manner in which he passes down of the keys to his coins through inheritance or other means, then those kinds of outcomes could have decently large short-term affects on the bitcoin market, even though perhaps in the longer run, the honey badger would not give too many shits.  

By the way, as was already mentioned several times in this thread, I really don't buy AGD's speculation that CSW actually knows anything about Satoshi being dead or not.  CSW merely remains a mere simpleton scam artist that is has been capable of latching onto any kind of ambiguous situation and spouting out some kind of dramatic baloney that has been proved to have been wrong so many times that there should hardly be any question that the guy lives in a kind of fantasy land.... except he seems to have enough of a budget and a means to even fund his scams, publication of his scams and to get others to go along with his baloney for their own reasons, perhaps pumpening of shitcoins or naysaying/attacking bitcoin.

Sure, there may be a decent number of people who have sufficiently developed senses to be able to identify those kinds of fraudulent personalities, and can identify the scamminess, contradictions and exaggerations soon enough to write off that diptwat... but that still does not mean that the ongoing bullshit propagation of CSW does not cause ripples from people who don't have either the ability or knowledge to identify his pedigree of seemingly obvious bullshit artistry, so some innocent people are likely get caught up in some of that phoney baloney misleading information, too.  
11519  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Tokens (Altcoins) / Re: ★🚀[ANN] BitcoinHEX The first trustless interest CD, Free claimable with BTC 🚀★ on: February 18, 2020, 04:59:01 AM
Yes.  There must be BTC in your account to claim.  The if you claim in the first week of the 50 week claim period you get 20% more, because the unclaimed gets pushed to you.

I think... Check out the webpage for more... www.ClaimBHX.com


How's this scam going?   Any one make any money, besides richard?

I saw some videos in which richard asserted that the coin was designed to pump, but really, it was designed to make richard money no matter what, and he exited the HEX system in a bit more than a month? 

Are there any forum threads that give updates regarding how much value Richard was able to scam from people mostly through Ethereum deposits, no?  Are any more details of the ongoing scam?  Would be nice if richard got put behind bars, even though he largely told people that he intended to scam them, but even with those levels of disclosures, he had made plenty of fraudulent level misrepresentations, too... we find out subsequently, no?

There might even still be some HEX believers out there, but the movement of many ethereum in lots of 1337 (wasn't the total like 43k ethereum or something like that) should have been a kind of "you've been powned" communication to any remaining wanna get rich quick HEX believers?
11520  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2020, 01:05:58 AM
Send me all the chocolate.
And you will then send a tile to each of the WO's members?

Bring them to the $100k party.  It will be incentive for several peeps to break their opsec for a free tile of chocolate - as addictive as.. other things.



Try one.. there is nothing in here, except pure delicious... and each chocolate tile has a specially tailored image of your avatar
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