I think philosophy that is kind of based on how much we expect the BTC price to go up.. or if it does not is pretty damned relevant to this thread, and it surely would seem that $50k to $100k is doable within the next 5 years... even though we know that we have to prepare for worser case scenarios.. such as flat for five years or even worse, but Up seems slightly greater odds than flat or down.. especially if we are in the 5-ish years ballpark of expectations...

With bitcoin, one thing is how much up, and another thing is what is the sustainability aspect... so the down after up portion of it.

By the way, I seem to be kind of repeating myself (what else is new?), but I am thinking that our odds for the bottom of $6,425 bottom being in might even be getting above 50/50...

Remember we had a $3,124 bottom, and then people were worried about sub-$5k.. which also seems to becoming less and less likely that we are going to see sub $5k.. ... and gosh-golly.. maybe $6,425 is looking greater likelihoods of being in...

I know, I know, I know, we were just at $7,175 at new years, so that is only 30 days ago.

It would NOT be outrageous to go back to $7,175 and retest it, but even that $7,175 does not have to be retested in order to be able to go up...   We do not have to have down before UP... we could have Up before down... or up before more up.... . (not counting staying above $9k as being significantly enough to be labelled as "down" in my own chosen definition of what is "down").

I do believe that it would be quite unlikely to break through $10k and to stay above $10k without getting some down.. so there is that, too.

I made a new post to respond just to the last few sentences that you added on the end of your last post, bitserve...



Seems that we can make various plans for 15 years from now, but so many things can happen in 15 years that we are just setting ourselves up for failure if we try to plan too specifically about it.  Maybe that was the point that I was trying to make, ineloquent as it might have been.



Hey.. now you are getting kind of into one of my areas of interest, which is the "need" to overprepare to some extent, especially if you are keeping part of your value in bitcoin and you don't plan to cash out all of your bitcoin but instead merely to diversify (or reallocate) some of it.

You are old enough to know, bitserve (even though I don't know your exact age, I have some ideas), about your own budget.  You have practiced your budget for a while, and you have a pretty good idea about how much you need in order to continue to live your current standard of living.  So, you can calculate a 4% withdrawal rate based on that in order to know if your 4% withdrawal rate is going to support you with that current standard of living.  Of course, you can ramp it up a little bit, too... perhaps... but if you don't have enough of a cushion there, then you are NOT quite ready, yet, to pull the "fuck you" trigger.



Well, I will agree that you do not want to pull the "fuck you" trigger too early, but you also should not be waiting too long, either.  Who wants to be working when they are not really physically able or when they are ready to move on to another stage in life.  Of course, each of us have probably come across examples of people who were forced to work too many years in their lives, but then I also think of some people who really cannot stop working anyhow, even if they have the means to do other stuff.  They seem to NOT be able to really help themselves in terms of wanting to stay active, busy and involved in certain kinds of activities that seem to be for a person of a younger age. 

Sometimes if you look further under the hood, you will find that they have plenty of money, but they still have too many insecurities to spend that money.. they feel that they need a cushion.. which surely might be true, and really we cannot second guess the balancing that other people do, we can only attempt to best particularize our own measurement of when to pull the "fuck you" lever based on believing that we have enough and also to have plans within that fuck you status to be able to adjust the withdrawal rate, if needed to make the available funds a kind of perpetual motion machine.. based on our chosen struck balance of the income that we need and being able to continue to live within the means that we have chosen. 

If we chose too early, or if our income from the saved funds does not really seem high enough, then yeah, maybe we will have to go without some new things.. instead of buying a new iphone and computer every 2-3 years, we have to let it ride for 4-5 years (just for example), or maybe we go on two trips per year, rather than 4 trips per year? 

Of course, there are going to be some uncertainties in fuck you status, too.. because we might have speculated that we could get rid of some obligations, but then some of the obligations seem to take nearly as long as when we had a JOB... what the fuck?  So, maybe in the end, I don't know, either... just gotta attempt to do our best in making the various measurements and having some flexibility and cushion in there... without allowing the perfect to become the enemy of the good.

I parsed out two more examples in my earlier post because I could see that there was some lackings, even in the condition that I created.. which might get us too much into the philosophical weeds.. rather than the general point.. which is that better specifics help us to understand why there is a need from the perspective of the earlier poster...

If the poster just says that s/he needs x, then we hardly even know what the fuck s/he is talking about, even if we also might feel that we need x, too.. or maybe we just "want" x.. and don't really need it.


I cannot be demanded to make a more detailed answer. I make a more detailed answer only when I believe that no one else wants it.  In other words, my more detailed answer is ONLY for me. 

In other words, I am a self-ish bastard, figuratively.


It should be more bitcoin related, no?  If we come up with some bitcoin related needs, then I might be up for it.  For example:

I: I "need" x amount of bitcoin for hooker a, b and c

II:  I "need" y amount  of bitcoin for lambo d, e and f

III:  I need z amount of bitcoin for blow quantities m, n and o


because you are harassing me (aka trolling me)



I already mentioned the bitches in roman numeral I, above.


Probably money does not buy happiness, but it is sure nice if you do not have to worry about doing certain kinds of work, but it seems that if you hire someone to do it, then you have other problems... takes a while to gain trust, even if you have someone to help you out... because sometimes they will end up coming into your space.. so then you need BIGGER space for them to NOT cross into your space.. but then you draw attention to yourself for how much space and nice things that you have, so then you feel like you cannot have so many nice things because you might get robbed, or $5 wrench attacked.

So, the balance is tough, and probably just have to be happy with what you got.. even the managing of how much to pay person 1, 2, or 3, but then if person 3 is helping you with your finances, then they know too much?  Maybe it is more helpful to get rich when you are younger, and then you have more time to adapt to not adding too many things too quickly?   Start out with a personal assistant? Maybe I don't really need a personal assistant?

Actually, you got me there.

I think that need is a statement that is conditional upon something else, so if we do not know what is the something else, then the statement of "need" might come off as vague or an exaggeration..

Without stating the condition, we could not really know what the speaker means by "need," except to speculate about what was meant by the condition.  

As examples:

1) Since I am not a bot, I need air in order to live.

Or,

2) I need to make another $1,000 before the end of the month, otherwise I am getting evicted.

Or,

3) in order to make "fuck you" status, in accounting for my other assets, anticipated income and anticipated expenses, I need to attain the value of a sustainable amount of between $1.5 million and $2 million in my bitcoin holdings.

Oh gawd......  

Someone died and left dudette in chargie....


We are all fucked!!!!!

Edit:  Must have been taking speed lessons from v8

WOW...The dude is getting wise beyond his years... for some strange reason...

Who would a thunk?

I spotted a pic of his travel companion.  Sorry regarding your opsec:

Strange statement.  Probably you need to explain yourself a little better.

All kinds of shit can happen in 15 years, so if you are focused only on one thing, you got ur lil selfie some troubles... such as aspergers.

There are no guarantees in this baby BTC world.

Have you been looking at the various BTC price prediction models?  Have you been figuring out your finances for a variety of scenarios?

if you know anything about BTC, and you are getting into it now, then you better have a plan for if it does go to $75k and also a lot of other variants, including if it doesn't.

hahahahaha

Don't let inconvenient facts get in the way of Ibian's little fiction...

Even though technically you are correct, becoin; I believe that he was trying to suggest:

buying = buying without using margin
selling = selling without using margin


longing =  buying with using margin
shorting = selling with using margin

Good luck with conformity.


I am inclined to post something about being within .5% of AYH, just to spite you..

$9,570/$9,520 (which just flashed on my screen while typing) is within .5% of AYH.  

Surely it will be nice to transition from AYH to ATH...

You gonna attempt to rain on that ATH announcing parade, too?  It's like you are attempting to censor rockets, trains and CCMFs, too.   You party poop!!!!  

I don't know how i think about the matter, exactly.  It's like we have a model that plays out in very similar ways, but some of the specifics and therefore the dynamics vary to some degree, but in the end, we might be witnessing distinctions without a difference. 

For example, in 2015 we had a long ass period of flat of about 9 months for what ended up being our bottom, and so when late 2018 hit us with another halvening of the BTC price from $6k to $3k, there was an expectation that our bottom was going to get drug out, but instead, about 4 months into it, we experienced a 3.5x bounce, but then about a 5 correction that ends up bring us back to almost the same place of our fractal overlay, so yeah, there are some BIGGER players monkeying around with this market but they better be BIGGER and the better be able to move the market 15x or so more because our price is around 15x greater, too.

The financial tools that are available are more complex including the impact of the thousands of froth coins, but in the end, all of those factors may NOT end up making a difference, but the BIG players really want to show the various price prediction models to be wrong and even to break those models, and the same was true in 2014-2017, and they really were NOT able to accomplish such breaking, even while they could manipulate the BTC price down for periods that seemed longer than sustainable, part of the loss of control when BTC prices finally went up was a product of their own making (NOT that they intentionally planned for that, the price just ended up playing out like that).

So, yeah, my thinking remains torn on this, because I am ok. to look at the price prediction models and to attempt to use them as a guide, while at the same time attempting to see where we are at and how far the price or even the BTC price dynamics are deviating from the model and questioning the extent to which there might be some explanation for why the BTC price might be deviating from the price prediction model.

A similar thing is true with bat country.  Sure, I really only experienced one bat country - and that was our early 2017 re-entering the $900 to $1,300 price range (previous high was $1,163).  Sure there was a bit of dancing around in that area, but when we really look back at it, we can see that we were NOT hanging out there for very long.  The same was true when looking at the most recent historical price points of $32 and $263, too.... so we get senses about what bat country is going to be like, but we cannot really rest assured and with a 100% confidence... merely a kind of 75% (or maybe even less?), inclination.

Sorry for my lack of a referent in my earlier post.... I was referring to the "problema" of reading too many posts.....

what's coinbase, again?  Seems like i heard of it, earlier.


ditto.... my above response to makrospex

Well, my "algo" attempts to recognize that there is a bit of a difference in my own style of investing as contrasted with the styles of others, yet I still have difficulties assigning levels of confidence, even though I tentatively  assert that there is a certain price arena that seems to be "bat country."  Subsequent, price movements could change the confidence level.. so yeah.. "self-tweaking" should then be the better way forward.  


Really convincingly establishes how out of touch you tend to be, hv_.....

Even 85% was a pretty damned high level of confidence, and I was willing to let Cryptotourist slide with that kind of statement, but more than 95%... surely you are trolling.    

I have some difficulties envisioning ATH before the halvening, even though I know that the ATH is really not that far away in terms of percent of BTC price change..,. and yeah, we already almost got there last June... so it is NOT so outrageous in terms of the passage of time, either.

There are several of us (to the extent that I am implicitly permitted to use the royal "we" here), including yours truly, who are giving some level of anticipation that we could end up witnessing a bit of a front-running in this particular 4-year fractal.... but, I still remain quite hesitant to get my hopes up too high or even to act upon anything (including imposing decently-sized walls of text on the topic) such as assigning a front-running that would merely constitute a couple or a few additions of percentage points to the assignments of ATH UPPITY probabilities, at best.

What's Coinbase?

Asking about when pump and when moon are really lame questions.  Guys (and gal) here do not know shit (including yours truly).  We are just guessing and hoping.  Sometimes we are correct and sometimes we are not.  Sure, there might be some skills in getting it right a bit more often than not, but even the BIGGEST ass gurus in this thread with a decent track record get it wrong quite a bit... especially referring to short-to-medium term....

Long term is a better likelihood of getting it somewhat right, but even then the idea would be generally figuring out whether you are going to accumulate, maintain or liquidate.  Which one are you?  And, what is your chosen level of allocation?  There is no get-rich-quick scheme, even with such a great investment, such as KING DADDY.

You gots ur lil selfie a real problem, dude (using expression figuratively because I know that you are not "the dude") .

Well, if you have already decided that the amount is allocated to BTC, then you invest 1/3 immediately at whatever BTC price, you dollar cost average the next 1/3 over the next 6 months and you schedule the remaining 1/3 for buying on dips.. so you have to figure out what is realistic in terms of how far you expect BTC to dip, and you don't really want to run out of money either in case it dips BIG...

At the same time, you should be figuring out your possible cash flow for the upcoming 6 months too, and how much of that you plan to invest into BTC... with flexibility, of course, and any investment into BTC, these days should be considered on a minimum of 4-6 years for holding before selling, so the earlier days would largely be accumulation of a BTC position that accounts for your own circumstances, including your cash flow, your other investments (including the size of your total investment holdings), your view of bitcoin compared with other investments, your timeline, your risk tolerance, and your skills and amount of time to research and to manage your portfolio including tweaking from time to time.

My level of smartness (or lack thereof) does not change based on day of the week; however, it could change, perhaps, perhaps, based on my level of:


CITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!

We are in one of those moments, currently, if have not recently checked upon the corn.   

Don't those BIG ass price moves tend to come during weird times so it might be difficult to wire cash?

I suppose that we might see it coming at around $7k-ish?  If such a thing were to happen?  Probably a lot of people are starting to believe that sub $7.5k is becoming less and less likely?   Who knows for sure?  I am starting to think that maybe 30% or even greater odds that we won't see sub-$7.5k no more.. but really difficult to know with any kind of high confidence.  Not that difficult to see an immediate $1k or even $2k drop, when we were just at $7,175 at the cross into this calendar year... only 30 days ago.. .. and there frequently be attempts to test the bottom again, even if we don't necessarily need to get back to $7,175 again in order to be able to continue with UPPITY.