I doubt that stability of BTC prices have much if anything to do with the issuance rate of btc.

We already know pretty damned exactly when and how much BTC are going to come into issuance.

We might not know who is going to own those coins, but that ownership does not likely matter very much in the whole scheme of things in terms of how widely bitcoin is adopted, how much is in circulation, how much rehypothecation is taking place (and are there effective means to minimize rehypothecation).

My earlier points largely attempted to assert that some stability might come to the bitcoin space if the price of BTC goes up sufficiently in order to cost a whole hell of a lot more money to manipulate the price.

Sure it is way more difficult to manipulate bitcoin's price as compared to late 2013, but even with a 10x increase in price and likely more than 10x more ways to liquidate bitcoin (both on ramps and off ramps), there are still likely some pretty solid tactics that deep pocket players can employ their coins to manipulate BTC prices... yeah, maybe some of them will get fucked when they are caught without any coins and they are fucking around with bitcoin prices with dollars only... which we likely already know that this is happening, and I am really looking forward to some of those fucktwats getting really rekkt with their smug dollar-based games.  Maybe I am engaging in a certain amount of wishful thinking, but we are likely to see some drama in terms of rich fucks trying to play around with bitcoin.. and surely it will be gratifying if some of them get fucked over by such attempts.

I do think that some stability in BTC prices can come just from the price going up, and we don't need to wait for 2140 for that...... so it is merely a matter of degree of how much is enough... and yeah if it does not happen in this 4 year cycle, it may happen in the next or the next, so I cannot really believe that we are going to have to wait for 3 more 4-year cycles to play out, even if it seems that we are quite likely to being close to being in the exponential UP phase of our current four year cycle.... but anyhow, the whole stability assertion thing is not really an ALL or NOTHING assertion, because bitcoin is going to continue to be quite unstable, even if it reaches gold market cap, and I was just attempting to suggest that it might become a bit less unstable with a higher than gold market cap as compared to its ongoing and should be obvious level of ongoing unstability today.

You sure have transitioned into a bull in recent weeks, and maybe even a bit longer I had noticed a kind of trend in your perspective.

You hit your head?  Fell off your bike?

That $23k by April seems a bit much.. and really, who gives any fucks about April... we are talking about a May halvening that should be our price prediction reference point, anyhow.  AmIwrong?

50/50

Probably all of us have had some food poisoning experiences or just where we eat too much of one kind of thing that has similar kinds of feelings.

In the mid 90s, I spent a little bit of time in Korea, and I went out to eat with a friend.  it was sans nok gi or something like that, but then the table next to us had a whole large plate full of fried squid, so I ate the sans nok gi and then when the table next to us said that we could have the whole plate of squid, I got excited and I pretty much ate that whole plate.

It was all fine and dandy for about 1 hour or 2 afterwards, then I was at the porcelain for quite a long time evacuating all of what I had eaten, plus more... seemingly more.  My sickness lasted for a few hours. I am having difficulties remembering how long it lasted since that was around 25 years ago.

I did not really conclude that it was food poisoning, rather than just eating too much of the same thing.. which is really not easy to digest squid.... I still love squid, but I learned NOT to eat whole plates of it without eating some other kinds of food items too.

Don't be reading too much into that poll.. it's getting to be around a month old, and we did end up hitting $6,500 before $7,500, even though it was a bit of a nail biter.....  I will admit that I was a loser... but whatever, I don't really like voting for down, even when the odds seem to be in favor of down... So, I seem to have some purposeful blinders, just like a few others here, in that regard.

Yep.... I am surely in agreement that we gotta try to keep bob as healthy as possible so that when he punches me in the face at the $1million party, it does not just feel like a mosquito bite.

The titanium plates likely help his strength.

By the way, the baby aspirins (once or twice a day - usually once a day) are supposed to have a blood thinning effect that is a fairly common preventative measure that is common practices, even getting into 40s and 50s... and is not as necessary to measure the ongoing levels of those aspirins as some of the other stronger blood thinning meds (such as coumadin or plavix or heparin... and I just looked it up there are a bunch of them.... )... though I suppose years and years of aspirin-taking could have some negative effects, even though sometimes difficult to measure whether impacting the liver or the blood vessel thinness or otherwise.

I agree with a lot of what you said above, thecodebear, but I have some trouble with your assertion that it was obvious that $3k was the bottom, so in that regard, it might have been a bit unclear during that 4.5 months between November 2018 and March 2019 that the bottom was in.

In recent times, I have been thinking that our move from $4,200 to $13,880 in three months was a kind of indication that $3k was the bottom, and that the difficulties of getting back down, and even close to $3k again, in 2019 has provided pretty decent assurance that $3,124 was our bottom for this cycle. 

We surely are not even past our December 22 - $6,424 serving as the local bottom for this most recent correction trend... Hopefully our current upwards movement is giving more space and time to that bottom, because I would surely prefer to resume up, but we can never really rest assured until we get some distance in terms of both price and time in order to conclusively call a bottom, as you already alluded to difficulties of in-the-midst-of-it dynamics.

You fuck!!!!!!!  (no homo)

I was hoping that no one would see it... and now you are drawing attention to it, and allowing options not to read.    

Surely, you must be a half glass full party poop.

I love my lil selfie a bit of an outrageous and beyond reasonings bitcoin pumpening.... especially the surprise ones that fuck the bears and fuck the fence sitters or the waiting for lower BTC prices dumbasses.

Bitcoin pumpenings seem to teach them lessons and to show the strength of the underlying bitcoin including the fact that it can be pumped with such intensity to cause some fucks to get left behind.

Of course, it also fucks people who try to play the ups and downs and don't largely have a practice/strategy of BTC HODL.....

In any event, these outrageous price moves in bitcoin are nearly inevitable and show signs of BTC strength while at the same time allowing some rich fucks to make a lot of money on purposeful manipulation of a relatively less liquid market... and teaches newbie traders to largely get off of trading and to factor in bitcoin upward pumpening potential into any trading strategy that they might attempt in bitcoinlandia.


I don't see it like that.  Of course, it was outrageous....

And of course, once it happened then there was going to become a lot of incentive to widdle away at the extra value contained therein....   but I still doubt that it took us out of the bullmarket but instead showed the beginning of the bull market and showed that the $3,122 bottom was in (not with 100% certainty, but a pretty decent sign).... Yeah, we have not really been able to know exactly how much BTC prices are going to retrace back down to $3,122, but we still have not gotten below $6,424... so perhaps, we are getting decent signs that $6,424 is the new local bottom... of course, not 100%, but nothing is 100%, especially in bitcoinlandia....

TLDR... don't mind myself a little BTC pump.. in the morning, in the evening, in the afternoon, or some combination thereof.


Oh, another thing, Majormax, we already know statistically speaking, that there are only a few days out of the year that any HODLer needs to be in bitcoin in order to have a fucking outrageously profitable portfolio.. and we can go back years and years and years, and you better fucking be in bitcoin on the vast majority of those days in order to have a profitable BTC portfolio, and that teaches me, and likely other inclined to HODL BTC peeps to error on the side of holding rather than fucking around with dollars or other coins or other nonsense trying to time exactly what days to be in and out...  ... so I suppose in that sense I appreciate the punishment of NON-HODLers.. with some of this difficult to anticipate outrageousness, especially when it is to the BTC prices moving to the upside.




I don't know if it is a natural pattern, but it is a pattern of a market that can be manipulated in the short term and also a pattern in which the manipulators cannot really shake the UP fundamentals....

Go BTC go, and let a few newbies suffer along the way, especially if they value their wealth in dollars rather than bitcoin, then they are more likely to get screwed and to be out at the wrong times.


You know better than that, Majormax.

Bitcoin NO work like dat!!!!!

We are not going to get stable anything.

Amongst the most unlikely of situations is to have bitcoin stable growth, so why should we be wishing for something that has about a snowball's chance in hell to be happening.

It is not that you are a bear, you are just fucking pie in the sky unrealistic if you are expecting bitcoin to transition into "stability" anytime before surpassing gold's market cap... which is still another 50x or so away from our current price....   Get a grip, Majormax!!!!  Get a grip!!!!      In other words, likely bitcoin has to gain another 50x before we can even be attempting to hope for more price stability, and even then, it might still be too immature and lacking in liquidity to really and meaningfully expect BTC slow and steady price stability, like you seem to be ascribing to this nearly untamable beast....

I already explained myself, and bitcoin does not fall into some kind of generic simplified numerological pattern... except maybe a combination of: 1) the stock to flow model, 2) four-year fractal, 3) s-curve exponential growth based on networking effects based on metcalfe's law, 4) sound money disinclineations to spend based on gresham's law, 5) momentum holding and creation based on Lindy effect, 6) free will human attempts to manipulate the models in ways to attempt to break them and 7) other variable ways not already mentioned or discussed...

In other words, TLDR fuck gann's largely non-applicable mathematical predetermination sorcery attempts.  

I think that gann theory = retarded theory.

I lose a bit of confidence if altcoins pump equal to or greater than bitcoin, so likely we need to see a few days of performance to verify if the altcoins are following BTC or if they are attempting to appear as if they are leading.  I will have more confidence if the altcoins get left behind.. but what are the odds of that?  Maybe even wishful thinking on my part?

Further, like you suggested, we have experienced a few of these BTC upsurge movements, but they ended up correcting decent amounts, even if it took longer to correct than it had to go up, so in that regard, it can be difficult for buy pressure (support) to keep up if the price is just NOT ready for the Upwards movement and to establish a new station.  Personally, it would be nice to see $10k resistance to get challenged and then if necessary to settle back down into the $8,500 to $9,500 range for a few months that might end up dragging out to the halvening, or so. 

Likely you, majormax, are not nearly that optimistic - since you tend to gravitate towards erring on the pessimism (seemingly overly cautious [size=pt]bear - for our own good[/size] side of things).  I would not really be surprised if a kind of bearish stagnation between $7k and $10k drags out until the halvening and maybe even a few months thereafter, ... but if we don't sufficiently stay above the lower $7ks, then surely bears are going to want to resume attacking attempts on the current $6,425 local bottom.

TLDR:  I agree with everything that you say, majormax (not really, just saying it to be pseudo-diplomatic.. hahahahahaha).  The extent of this currently ongoing upcomening pumpening is critical.^tm

Hahahahaha

What a jokester...

You must be one of the team members rather than the real deal Mic (if there is such a thing?), who would never imply any negative ideas about the length of my posts.    

Yeah.. even though ethereum is a fucking shit coin.... hopefully, you are not trying to get on our good side by suggesting that you are shorting shit coins.. and does not mean that you are NOT going to get rekt as fuck by playing those kinds of shorting games.  

But, hey, it's your money to lose.. #nohomo... &  #noloveforshitcoinethereum.  


OOOOOHHHH Gawd!!!!!!  You would be showing your true level of dumb?  

Going Roach is NOT exactly a threat (or anything to even consider bragging about).  There is even an expression in these parts of "getting roached".  Don't you know it?"

In sum, Roach is a pretty sad creature, but hey, if you want to emulate roach, that's all upon you... and don't be blaming other folks for your level of dumb... .  Sucks to be you, these days.

I did not know that I had not allowed "newbies" to send me PMs.  My account settings must have reset or I accidentally unchecked that box.  I have reset my settings to allow for PMs from "newbies."

Regarding my walls of text, I agree.  Sometimes it is better to just skip them or skim them.... depending on your mood and level of patience.

I personally believe that there is a bit of meaninglessness to April 1, especially in the whole scheme of things in which we have a more important event coming up, which is the mid May halvening... In other words, fuck April 1. It is a BIG ass distraction to be thinking about April 1 rather than the more important date that is coming soon thereafter (not that I am implying that we are going to witness any significant price move on the day of the halvening because it really seems to take several months for the effects to start to really and materially be felt.. even if we might get some manipulation attempts that attempt to coordinate around the halvening and/or the FUD spreading opportunities that come from such FUD spreading around such date).

Well, that is a start.  Maybe you will snap out of your seemingly ongoing gambling-inclined dumb with a little more sensible information?  Perhaps?  Perhaps?  Am I hoping for too much?


You should not have to remind me about what is on the charts.  I can read the charts.  Sure, you might want to emphasize a certain aspect of the charts, but what is your point, exactly?  You believe that it is a good practice to be shorting in a likely BTC bull market?  Are you purposefully trying to sabotage yourself, or are you trying to get others to engage in similar kinds of dumb?  If you are merely just sabotaging yourself, then yeah, whatever, continue with your ongoing shorting inclinations.. sooner or later you are gonna figure out the power of our little bitty buddy, aka king daddy.   

Almost like chart buddy... surely should be appreciated....   

What is the demographic that you are describing by "anybody"?

You mean WO peeps who have been into bitcoin since before mid 2017?

I believe that there are quite a few WO peeps, even the earlier ones, who are still struggling to be in decent profits in spite of a long time frame to be able to accomplish such, even those who had been involved here before mid 2017. 

Let's say for example, some members were able to put together $10k worth of investment around $2,500 per BTC.  That would still ONLY be 5 BTC, so the profits on paper for that, even though decently good would still only be in the $25k territory (that is $2.5k x 5).  I am sure that there are a lot of variants of that, which causes a decent number of active WO peeps who are currently sitting at actual profits (talking about on paper if they cashed out today) that are less than $50k, even if they got in before mid 2017 and attempted to continue to accumulate and HODL within their budget(s).

But, hey, what do I know beyond speculating about what other peeps do.. and what kinds of cash flow that they might be able to spare in certain real world circumstances....?  I am also thinking that it is difficult as fuck for regular young peeps to even scramble together $10k and to keep such sums invested and not to get distracted into cashing out too much too soon when they see some profits, including seeing 2x or 3x and then spouting out about how smart they are for making 2x to 3x profits.. I know a quite a few smart people who have acted in that direction, even when I attempted to coach them on better and longer term strategies and NOT to gamble on their holdings way more than they should be doing..... Regular peeps just seem inclined to gamble and inclined to "know more than their own good" because they tend to value their wealth in dollars rather than BTC (so do not really seem to appreciate the value of accumulating BTC)... So, even relatively smart peeps have difficulties really and truly establishing sound long term (rather than short term) BTC accumulation strategies.

I think 50/50 for "never under $10k after 2020"....


That's pretty informative, helpful and insightful, right?  Predictions of mine, like that, is why some WO peeps have accused me of failing / refusing to take more bold stances in regards to the price direction of bitcoin... hahahahaha...  

Those non-descript wo peeps can go fuck themselves.    (surely proclaimed with sufficient levels of endearment, and #nohomo)