Come back to it in 2-3 years from now and enjoy the near-order-of-magnitude profits.
I agree with your sentiment, but any investment should be a minimum of 8-10 years holding, if not much longer. Thinking 2-3 years outlook will cut it is the problem with most people's mindset about investing. Yeah, you need a 4 year horizon at minimum. The market has followed a 4 year cycle since the first halving came along. |
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Maybe somewhere in between. Not all in, but not wimpy 50/wk DCA. Perhaps model a decaying exponential to determine purchases, which would bias contributions in the near future and then tail them off.
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Also, please point me to the World Joint Investigative Task Force put together by all the major nations affected by the coronavirus, whose mandate is to investigate the source of the virus, find out *exactly* where it originated from and how/why, and to make sure that this kind of thing NEVER EVER happens to the world again. Because such a task force would make total sense, right?
Yes, totally. The virus jumped from slaughtered wildlife to humans at a wetmarket in Wuhan. The Chinese would go a long ways toward stopping "this kind of thing" by coming down like a ton of bricks on the wildlife market. According to the New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/science/coronavirus-pangolin-wildlife-ban-china.htmlThe coronavirus epidemic prompted China to permanently ban trade of wild animals as food, but not for medicinal use.Oops! Evelybody know shalk fin and pangorin good fo you! There goes the Chinese ban on the wildlife trade. And Africans need to stop eating apes. |
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Looking to YouTube videos for proof that the world is real... now that's a cognitive malfunction.
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On a lighter note, I found toilet paper - 6 hours drive from home in another country where the farmers don't panic because they're already used to feast or famine. I'm pretty certain they still have all their Bitcoin too.
Damn you guys typed a lot yesterday.
A 6 hours drive for TP? It would have been quicker, easier and cheaper to install a bidet. And more sanitary. Trying to clean your crappy crack with dry paper is barbaric. Clean yourself with water, for chrissake. |
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You said bitcoin was "specifically meant to go way up in price." That's the part I had a problem with. Satoshi didn't design bitcoin for that purpose. Proof of this lies in the million (or more) untouched Satoshi-mined coins. If he was motivated by profit, he would have moved them a long, long time ago. I don't think there's any sort of long-term scheme we don't see in that regard; I think the coins won't ever move.
What happens to those coins when Paul LeRoux gets out of prison depends on whether he used a brain wallet and remembers the phrase. |
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Al we need now is clueless newspapers writing that bitcoin is going to be halved in two months.
Bitcoin IS going to be halved in two months. |
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IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.
Yes. I would not be bothering with TA at present. There are already people saying it's back to business as usual. Let's revisit that in 2-3 more weeks when Donald is ranting through his ventilator and people are eating their own tootsies to survive. It will be business as usual at some point. This point certainly isn't it. Bottoms are only visible in hindsight. It's possible we are near (or have already seen) the bottom. That goes for both the stock market and BTC, both of which have a tendency towards overextended crashes and V-bottom recoveries that leave everyone chasing. By the time sentiment is back to "business as usual" prices could be up 15-30% from here. It's business as usual right now, People can't see it. |
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Ready for liftoff, all systems go  |
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Single toilet paper roll sells for $1000  Toilet paper is the new shitcoin. |
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The sun doesn't close, but it sets. |
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This chart reflects the March 8 close on Bitstamp at $8033.70. As you can see, we are close to touching historical support. Vertical axis uses a quadratic transform.  |
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Quoting masterluc/PentarhUdi's famous tradingview post of Dec 2, 2018 As the technology being adopted - it loosing its blowing popularity and leaving straight-style log trend while continue to grow in SQRT-style trend (green in picture) more smoothly. I had difficulties to draw this green trend using regular tools, so it is not really accurate. Here's a SQRT-style trend. Will honey badger stay in the chute; will she break red, will she break green?  |
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Yeah, I didn't look close enough at your image. The vertical axis is clearly labeled erf(x) The error function is defined as the integral of e^-x^2, i.e. the gaussian normal distribution or "bell curve." The logistic function is the hyperbolic tangent, shifted and scaled to put the asymptotes at 0 and 1. They both have sigmoidal shapes.  Just dropping this for anybody who's interested in sigmoid functions in general. It compares the error function and the logistic function (labeled "sigmoid" in the figure caption). For our purposes, I'm not sure there's much practical difference. But I don't think bitcoin's headed for a quantum leap of adoption and price. It think it's headed for another ordinary bubble, if anything. Nothing to see here, folks. If you filter out the bubbles, the long term trend will be steadily monotonic. That's just my opinion. |
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Nah he is right, every halvening is less important then the previous. LOL, there has only been 2 halvings so far. With this small of a data set, we're speaking in the realm of coincidence, not reliable patterns. In hindsight, we may find this entire first decade of price discovery was essentially noise before the vertical swing of an S-curve. I would be weary of assuming the past cycles will automatically extrapolate into the future. The trend could reverse, or the magnitude could increase (or decrease) even by orders of magnitude.  The people planning to sell at $60K-$100K because they insist BTC must follow the past logarithmic trend (with diminishing gains) may end up selling way too early. You are talking about the logistic function, a model of growth which starts as purely exponential and then transitions to a saturation regime. The sigmoid shape appears when you draw the logistic function on a linear graph. A log graph of the logistic function doesn't have an s-shape. The early growth appears as an upward curve on a linear chart (like the one you posted), but looks like a straight line on a log chart. When saturation effects begin damping the growth rate, the linear graph exhibits an inflection point (as on your graph). On a log graph, the transition to a saturation regime appears as a downward bend from the inital straight-line exponential growth, subsequently approaching a horizontal asymptote. The logistic function can be expressed as y=1/(1+e^-x), and here is the log graph https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=y%3Dlog%281%2F%281%2Be%5E%28-x%29%29%29%2C-10%3C%3Dx%3C%3D10%2C-10%3C%3Dy%3C%3D1TLDR: we won't see a sigmoid on the log chart of bitcoin's exchange rate history |
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everyone thinks he is the genius, and the rest are the herd.
I resemble that remark! |
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There is also the problematic nature that an investment, such as bitcoin that starts from zero is going to have pretty steep performance once it gets a value that is much above zero... So for example, maybe we could start measuring bitcoin's value in 2011, and bitcoin was valued in about a $2 to $7 price range for a large portion of 2011.
horizontal line, USD 0.0224: begin global liquid price discovery Just my two cents  |
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long term price prediction even with colored pictures is not a reputable business.
But we like colored pictures!  if we go back to $6k (I give it a 50-50)
It's either gonna happen or it isn't. Sounds like 50-50 to me! |
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