Analysis

[STT]

In hindsight, we may find this entire first decade of price discovery was essentially noise

The halvening deal is we come away from the Satoshi's block reward and it leaves the rails and does its own thing.    Its amazing someone was able to plan out something so far ahead and it actually worked to any extent.   I think of it opposite to noise though its a new sector, etc.   Really volatile but we were on that set plan where as more in future its going to just rely on free market supply and demand and eventually no block reward hence I say it matters less every time by his design that is.
    Really the main thing that is for sure is tried and tested dynamic to all speculative markets which is buy the rumor sell the news.   Its rumor because halvening hasn't arrived yet and after it happens, it is the news ie. its happened and there is some pressure from speculative sells.   Doesnt always have to do that but its one of the most repeated cycles that happens I think.

[1714831128]

1714831128

[1714831128]

1714831128

[1714831128]

1714831128

[1714831128]

1714831128

[1714831128]

1714831128

[Majormax]

Nah he is right, every halvening is less important then the previous.

LOL, there has only been 2 halvings so far. With this small of a data set, we're speaking in the realm of coincidence, not reliable patterns.

In hindsight, we may find this entire first decade of price discovery was essentially noise before the vertical swing of an S-curve. I would be weary of assuming the past cycles will automatically extrapolate into the future. The trend could reverse, or the magnitude could increase (or decrease) even by orders of magnitude.



The people planning to sell at $60K-$100K because they insist BTC must follow the past logarithmic trend (with diminishing gains) may end up selling way too early.

That is possible, but it is more logical to assume that the amplitude of price swings will decline as market cap. increases. It can be seen from the long term price chart that this is actually happening. As market cap increaes in weight, it requires a greater and greater weight of Fiat to move price by a given %. The bottleneck will always be in the Fiat conversion.

Past cycles here are a relatively poor guide to the future now, if only because there is relatively little data on long term trends (having not got to the 'long term' yet).

My own gut feeling is that the strong overhead resistances of 10400 and 13500 will hold for an extended period. 7000 is reasonable support. Going to be a lot more boring than the 'herd' would like. If there is a new ATH, it may not be until 2021-2.

[exstasie]

In hindsight, we may find this entire first decade of price discovery was essentially noise before the vertical swing of an S-curve. I would be weary of assuming the past cycles will automatically extrapolate into the future. The trend could reverse, or the magnitude could increase (or decrease) even by orders of magnitude.



The people planning to sell at $60K-$100K because they insist BTC must follow the past logarithmic trend (with diminishing gains) may end up selling way too early.

That is possible, but it is more logical to assume that the amplitude of price swings will decline as market cap. increases. It can be seen from the long term price chart that this is actually happening.

You're just extrapolating the past price trend into the future. Extrapolations are inherently unreliable.

The bottleneck will always be in the Fiat conversion.

Something that's very difficult to predict is the effect of supply drying up. The price can rocket higher on the basis of an extremely thin ask side as holders refuse to sell. Demand is not the only factor.

Bears always assert that the market will require increasingly and unreasonable amounts of capital to keep moving higher, but that's not necessarily true, depending on supply.

[Biodom]

Nah he is right, every halvening is less important then the previous.

LOL, there has only been 2 halvings so far. With this small of a data set, we're speaking in the realm of coincidence, not reliable patterns.

In hindsight, we may find this entire first decade of price discovery was essentially noise before the vertical swing of an S-curve. I would be weary of assuming the past cycles will automatically extrapolate into the future. The trend could reverse, or the magnitude could increase (or decrease) even by orders of magnitude.



The people planning to sell at $60K-$100K because they insist BTC must follow the past logarithmic trend (with diminishing gains) may end up selling way too early.

That is possible, but it is more logical to assume that the amplitude of price swings will decline as market cap. increases. It can be seen from the long term price chart that this is actually happening. As market cap increaes in weight, it requires a greater and greater weight of Fiat to move price by a given %. The bottleneck will always be in the Fiat conversion.

Past cycles here are a relatively poor guide to the future now, if only because there is relatively little data on long term trends (having not got to the 'long term' yet).

My own gut feeling is that the strong overhead resistances of 10400 and 13500 will hold for an extended period. 7000 is reasonable support. Going to be a lot more boring than the 'herd' would like. If there is a new ATH, it may not be until 2021-2.

I understand this reasoning, but, interestingly enough, moves DOWN changed only marginally from cycle to cycle (-94%, -85% and -84%).
Why, if this is the case, the moves UP shall dissipate? They might not, at least not for the next one.

[kellrobinson]

Quoting masterluc/PentarhUdi's famous tradingview post of Dec 2, 2018

As the technology being adopted - it loosing its blowing popularity and leaving straight-style log trend while continue to grow in SQRT-style trend (green in picture) more smoothly. I had difficulties to draw this green trend using regular tools, so it is not really accurate.



Here's a SQRT-style trend.
Will honey badger stay in the chute; will she break red, will she break green?

[marcus_of_augustus]

I see these SQRT trend lines being used more now, any rational basis for that beyond pretty coloured line-fitting?

Is there some new SQRT adoption curve dynamics being discovered here? And what is the longer term resolution of that trend, SQRT for ever and ever?

Sigmoids have a basis in technology adoption theory that is plainly logical and have defined beginning and end points that make sense. SQRT can only be a temporary trend at best, although may be applicable for years, decades even maybe. The problem for sigmoids and bitcoin right now is the final end point is still a moving target, 100% monetary adoption seemingly incomprehensible, so guesses at proportions of total monetary wealth that may finally be stored in bitcoin being the feeble best estimates for what shape a sigmoid might ultimately take.

[exstasie]

I see these SQRT trend lines being used more now, any rational basis for that beyond pretty coloured line-fitting?

Is there some new SQRT adoption curve dynamics being discovered here?

I don't think so. It's just curve fitting. The bottom SQRT trend line has lots of "touches" so maybe it serves as a better basis for extrapolation? The upper trend line only has two touches, however.

[drays]

As far as I know, this SQRT trend was popularized by Masterluk lately (he saw that somewhere and liked it a lot), based on a pure intuition and inspired by the fact that the Bitcoin inflation decreases in SQRT style. Basically that is just a wild guess, with no rational ground behind it.

[Wind_FURY]

Quoting masterluc/PentarhUdi's famous tradingview post of Dec 2, 2018

As the technology being adopted - it loosing its blowing popularity and leaving straight-style log trend while continue to grow in SQRT-style trend (green in picture) more smoothly. I had difficulties to draw this green trend using regular tools, so it is not really accurate.



Here's a SQRT-style trend.
Will honey badger stay in the chute; will she break red, will she break green?

It's practical. Because the liquidity required to push Bitcoin from $1 to $10,000 is magnitudes lesser than it would take to push Bitcoin from $10,000 to $100,000.

[Majormax]

My own gut feeling is that the strong overhead resistances of 10400 and 13500 will hold for an extended period. 7000 is reasonable support. Going to be a lot more boring than the 'herd' would like. If there is a new ATH, it may not be until 2021-2.

7000 not that far away now.  Hopefully the low comes in around that. That will be a higher low than the big 6400. The prospect of the halvening rise is receding now. Have to hope that this price action is not signalling a continuing long term bear market.

The problem (as has been very clear for 6 months), is that lower highs of 13500 and 10500 have held (the latter retested and lost again) and now they form very hard long term resistance.

I would guess this year will be a very long one (what with all the global issues).

[cAPSLOCK]

New post from Masterluc on Tradingview: Short term analysis: ending diagonal (SHORT)

Can't say I agree with him, but it's something to keep in mind.

I assume price traces giant triangle correction since ATH . It is interesting that B-waves inside have impulsive subcounts.

I think that's the first clue that we aren't in a big triangle.....

Another top called...  Nobody is perfect, but he certainly got this one right.  I just hope we don't have to go to 6k.

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

[gentlemand]

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

Yes. I would not be bothering with TA at present. There are already people saying it's back to business as usual. Let's revisit that in 2-3 more weeks when Donald is ranting through his ventilator and people are eating their own tootsies to survive.

It will be business as usual at some point. This point certainly isn't it.

[exstasie]

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

Yes. I would not be bothering with TA at present. There are already people saying it's back to business as usual. Let's revisit that in 2-3 more weeks when Donald is ranting through his ventilator and people are eating their own tootsies to survive.

It will be business as usual at some point. This point certainly isn't it.

Bottoms are only visible in hindsight. It's possible we are near (or have already seen) the bottom. That goes for both the stock market and BTC, both of which have a tendency towards overextended crashes and V-bottom recoveries that leave everyone chasing.

By the time sentiment is back to "business as usual" prices could be up 15-30% from here.

[kellrobinson]

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

Yes. I would not be bothering with TA at present. There are already people saying it's back to business as usual. Let's revisit that in 2-3 more weeks when Donald is ranting through his ventilator and people are eating their own tootsies to survive.

It will be business as usual at some point. This point certainly isn't it.

Bottoms are only visible in hindsight. It's possible we are near (or have already seen) the bottom. That goes for both the stock market and BTC, both of which have a tendency towards overextended crashes and V-bottom recoveries that leave everyone chasing.

By the time sentiment is back to "business as usual" prices could be up 15-30% from here.

It's business as usual right now,  People can't see it.

[Wind_FURY]

New post from Masterluc on Tradingview: Short term analysis: ending diagonal (SHORT)

Can't say I agree with him, but it's something to keep in mind.

I assume price traces giant triangle correction since ATH . It is interesting that B-waves inside have impulsive subcounts.

I think that's the first clue that we aren't in a big triangle.....

Another top called...  Nobody is perfect, but he certainly got this one right.  I just hope we don't have to go to 6k.

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

Why? That's very short-term thinking of you. If it crashes to $6,000 this year, to make new ATH on 2022 or 2023, wouldn't we be very thankful for the golden opportunity to buy another dip?

[cAPSLOCK]

New post from Masterluc on Tradingview: Short term analysis: ending diagonal (SHORT)

Can't say I agree with him, but it's something to keep in mind.

I assume price traces giant triangle correction since ATH . It is interesting that B-waves inside have impulsive subcounts.

I think that's the first clue that we aren't in a big triangle.....

Another top called...  Nobody is perfect, but he certainly got this one right.  I just hope we don't have to go to 6k.

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

Why? That's very short-term thinking of you. If it crashes to $6,000 this year, to make new ATH on 2022 or 2023, wouldn't we be very thankful for the golden opportunity to buy another dip?

Nothing short term in my thinking about Bitcoin.  I would like to see a higher low than what we saw in December.  That simple.

[Wind_FURY]

New post from Masterluc on Tradingview: Short term analysis: ending diagonal (SHORT)

Can't say I agree with him, but it's something to keep in mind.

I assume price traces giant triangle correction since ATH . It is interesting that B-waves inside have impulsive subcounts.

I think that's the first clue that we aren't in a big triangle.....

Another top called...  Nobody is perfect, but he certainly got this one right.  I just hope we don't have to go to 6k.

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

Why? That's very short-term thinking of you. If it crashes to $6,000 this year, to make new ATH on 2022 or 2023, wouldn't we be very thankful for the golden opportunity to buy another dip?

Nothing short term in my thinking about Bitcoin.  I would like to see a higher low than what we saw in December.  That simple.

But from my standpoint, why care where it goes today, and how/why, if we already know it's on its path to 6 digits? I HOPE we have to go to $6,000, shake out the weak-hands, and honey-badger don't care.

[exstasie]

But from my standpoint, why care where it goes today, and how/why, if we already know it's on its path to 6 digits?

Because 6 digits isn't guaranteed. Building and maintaining a bullish structure strengthens the fundamentals-based argument for BTC investment. Stock to flow, Metcalfe's law, network effect and all that are great, but bullish trends and Wyckoff structures really bring it all together.

With BTC back in the $6Ks, the entire bull trend from last December is now in question. Hats off to Masterluc on this one.......

[Wexlike]

I won't doubt this fucker anymore. /facepalm

[somac.]

But from my standpoint, why care where it goes today, and how/why, if we already know it's on its path to 6 digits?

Because 6 digits isn't guaranteed. Building and maintaining a bullish structure strengthens the fundamentals-based argument for BTC investment. Stock to flow, Metcalfe's law, network effect and all that are great, but bullish trends and Wyckoff structures really bring it all together.

With BTC back in the $6Ks, the entire bull trend from last December is now in question. Hats off to Masterluc on this one.......

And what did he say would happen after 6k