Investing in bitcoin is GAMBLING that some day it can do more than 14 transactions per second ON CHAIN. And I'm not talking about Lightning Network because that's just a dumb system that will never work like I explained before: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2792933.0

Maybe some day a genius will stand up and invent a new blockchain algo. Then again, that day may never happen. But that's what you're betting on when you buy bitcoin for the long term.

Ok wake me up when bitcoin can do more than 14 transactions per second. Something like the 65.000 per second that VISA currently processes. And don't start about LN, because that's just the dumbest system ever that won't work, like I explaind before: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2792933.0

You did read my previous post? SWIFT actually agrees with the author that blockchain in its current state is NOT suitable for payment systems (which is no surprise given the current 14 tx/sec limit for bitcoin for example). Maybe some day someone will invent a new algo and it will work. But who knows if that's even possible. Until that day bitcoins is worthless as a payment system.

What part particularly struck you as dumb?

Last time I tested it was 140. Is that enough for you?


LOL. Did you even read what SWIFT said? Yesterday they said: "Blockchain technology needs to make more progress before it can handle the billions of dollars of daily cross-border payments between the world’s banks" https://www.ft.com/content/966f5694-22c6-11e8-ae48-60d3531b7d11 which is EXACTLY the author's point too. Blockchain tech as it is is NOT suitable for payment systems. Maybe some day in a future it will be. But who knows when that day will arrive and IF that day will arrive. Right now it's worthless as a payment system.

Welcome to bitcointalk, where people will tell you ANY time is a GREAT time to buy some more!

I always find it very interesting how the technically skilled are very wary of crypto's, while the noobs, who really don't understand it, are bullish.

And 5) Noobs sell their whole position (being 0.002 BTC). Come on Noobs dont make the market. Big money makes the market.

No LN will never work because it's a really stupid system. If you were to build a payment system from the ground up you'd NEVER EVER design a system like LN. The whole reason LN exists is that people saw that blockchain is not suitable for payments, it's too slow, so they figured we need to find a way to allow for payments outside the blockchain but something that we can integrate within the blockchain system. That's when somebody thought "hey wait a minute, let's use multisig wallets where we can just change how much each party owns in that multisig wallet, that way we don't need the blockchain to perform a payment". And while it's actually a very smart idea, *given those constraints*, it's a stupid idea outside those constraints and people would NEVER even think of it when building a system from the ground up. It's some hippy idea that people will be part of payment routes and use their accounts for that but that will never work of course for reasons I've outlined in my topic.

Yes you can trade but you can not pay anything. I don't know any shop at all in my country that accepts bitcoin. That's the whole key here, the author in the article explains why blockchain is not suitable at all for a payment system. It's way too slow.

Well as the author says, it not only consumes tons of energy, it's just not usable as payment system because of the extreme slow processing speed. I think a lot of people have some dream about how bitcoin is going to change the world. But it's also important to look at the technology and what it can and can NOT do. That's why I think it's such a good article, it lays out why blockchain can not be used as an international payment system.

I just stumbled upon this article that The Guardian published today, I think it's the best ever written on bitcoin, really good sum-up about blockchain and bitcoin: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/mar/05/bitcoin-is-based-on-the-blockchain-pipe-dream

Of course. Bitcoin usage is only a fraction of what it was before, that's why it's now much cheaper and faster. Currently 150k transactions/day vs almost 500k in december. We're now almost at the lowest amount of bitcoin usage since 12 months.

Well let's face it, BTC doesn't scale so on-chain itself per definition can NEVER become a success. I mean, even after segwit, the maximum amount of transactions is only 14 per second worldwide (before segwit it was only 7: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Maximum_transaction_rate). For a payment system to become a success, it should be at least 5000x more (VISA does 65.000 per second currently). So that's a HUGE problem.

Now, when people realized that BTC will never become a success with blockchain payments because of this limit, they figured that they needed to move transactions off the chain and invented Lightning Network. But that too is a horrible & stupid idea like I explained here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2792933.0

So BTC is a really nice idea in theory but just doesn't work in practice. That's why it's going to fail. And I think more and more people are starting to realize that. I mean look do you see any shops adopting BTC payments in the last few months? Quite the contrary, big shops like Steam have actually STOPPED using bitcoins (https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/6/16743220/valve-steam-bitcoin-game-store-payment-method-crypto-volatility), because of the scaling problems (and volatility). So that realization is kicking in slowly and will eventually lead to the death of BTC. It's like socialism, it may sound nice in theory but if you look at the practice (Venezuela) it just never works. If it doesn't work, eventually it will die. And that's what we're seeing now.

Such a nonsense. Besides, people actually USE paper money. Nobody uses bitcoin. 150k BTC transactions per day currently, remove the broker/trading related transactions, how many are left to actually pay for goods? Pretty much nobody uses it, yet it already costs 51 Twh/year, more than a country like Portugal uses!

Someone just sent me btc, I had it within a few minutes in my account ! Man if BTC would always work like this I'd actually be a strong believer But fact of the matter is that it doesn't scale and that LN sucks so it's a great idea but just won't work for mass usage.

But in order for the network to become a success it NEEDS users online. So it can only become a success with high energy costs. Sure, people could start selling custom LN devices but I think it's reasonable to assume a lot of people would just use their PC. Smartphone would be possible too indeed, but it would drain a lot of battery. Most phones die within 5-6 hours of activity already.


Obviously it's hard to really calculate it correctly. But fact of the matter is that it's a HUGE waste of energy, just because someone invented a strategy that pays more if you spend more energy. I really hope that, and assume, that the winning coin will use something like PoS instead of PoW. This is really unsustainable.

Exactly. BTC can, since segwit, do a maximum of 14 transactions per sec, nowhere near 25.000.


Ok but off-chain is a whole different beast. You're interpolating on-chain but who knows how much electricity LN transactions will costs. As a device NEEDS to be online in order to be part of a LN payment route and tons of info need to continually pass through the network (for routing purposes), this is really a whole different calculation. Where people now mostly power down their pc's at night, with LN they'll probably keep them running 24 hours/day. IF LN would ever to become a success (which I highly doubt for reasons I've laid out already: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2792933.0)

Besides, BTC is currently doing 51 Tw/year already: https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption

You do realize bitcoin has a maximum of 7 tx/sec ? Well ok in all fairness, 14 tx/sec after segwit.

Hmm I must have missed that.

And another reason why I'm so bearish: in the last crash, the one until $6000, there was a HUGE buyer, who kept the market alive on his own, on bitfinex. He easily bought 25.000 BTC when it started tanking within 24 hours, using hidden orders. I made a topic about it when it happened: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2864671.0 And he kept buying after the first 24 hours too, all the way up to 10k. Without this guy the markets would have tanked to $3000-$4000. And the thing is, I haven't seen this guy in a while. So it seems he's done. Without him, the markets will die way harder than last time if it starts tanking.