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121  Economy / Gambling / Re: SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game on: August 15, 2012, 03:20:51 PM
...
2 games
all wins : 0.732422 * 0.732422 = 53.64%
1 win 1 lose : 0.732422 * 0.267578 = 19.59%
all loses : 0.267578 * 0.267578 = 7.15%
...
Why the sum of all percentage in 2 games are not 100% ?
1 win 1 lose : 0.732422 * 0.267578 = 19.59% times 2
(1 win 1 loss = 1 loss 1 win)

Thanks, so this is the correct one :

1 game
win : 73%
lose : 27%

2 games = 2^2 = 4 combination
all wins :  0.732422 * 0.732422 = 53.64%
1 win 1 lose : 0.732422 * 0.267578 = 19.59%
1 lose 1 win : 0.732422 * 0.267578 = 19.59%
all loses : 0.267578 * 0.267578 = 7.15%

3 games = 2^3 = 8 combination
win win win
win win lose
win lose win
win lose lose
lose win lose
lose win win
lose lose win
lose lose lose

compacted to
1 [win win win] : 0.732422 * 0.732422 * 0.732422 = 39.29%
3 [win win lose] : 0.732422 * 0.732422 * 0.267578 = 14.35% * 3 = 43.05%
3 [lose lose win] : 0.267578 * 0.267578 * 0.732422 = 5.24% * 3 = 15.73%
1 [lose lose lose] : 0.267578 * 0.267578 * 0.267578 = 1.91

The winning chance streak get reduced after each game Sad
As long as I don't play more than one two three four games it should be okay right ?  Grin
122  Economy / Gambling / Re: SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game on: August 15, 2012, 01:31:04 PM
For any three games in a row:

chance of win = p = 0.732422
chance of loss = 1 - p = 1 - 0.732422 = 0.267578

chance of 2 wins and one loss = p*p*(1-p) = 0.1435401



Following your math, is this correct ?

1 game
win : 73%
lose : 27%

2 games
all wins : 0.732422 * 0.732422 = 53.64%
1 win 1 lose : 0.732422 * 0.267578 = 19.59%
all loses : 0.267578 * 0.267578 = 7.15%

3 games
all wins : 0.732422 * 0.732422 * 0.732422 = 39.29%
2 wins 1 lose : 0.732422 * 0.732422 * 0.267578 = 14.35%
1 wins 2 loses : 0.732422 * 0.267578 * 0.267578 = 5.24%
all loses : 0.267578 * 0.267578 * 0.267578 = 1.91%

Why the sum of all percentage in 2 games are not 100% ?
123  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: SCAM... www.mtgix.com ...SCAM - be careful! on: August 15, 2012, 01:13:01 PM
Website reported, I can't believe phishing scam website like this still exist and there are people that fall for this obvious scam.
124  Economy / Gambling / Re: SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game on: August 15, 2012, 01:03:44 PM
percent chance to lose once or to lose 3 times in a row

Percent chance to lose once. I want to know the formula so I can calculate when I'll approach my loss and stop gambling while I'm still winning.
Formula to calculate percent chance to lose 2-3 time in a row is fine too.
125  Economy / Gambling / Re: SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game on: August 15, 2012, 10:53:48 AM
Still winning so far, thanks SatoshiDice !
One quick question, what's the % chance to lose if I do 73% roll three times ?
126  Economy / Speculation / Re: [SHORT-TERM POLL] 10k BTC WALL AT $12.20 moves if gets eaten into on: August 14, 2012, 06:14:51 PM
Well it sure looks like whomever put the wall up has cut that wall in half to 5k.

LOL! Cheesy

Precisely, from 1x10k to 1x6k
He should really split the wall to multiple sell (various 10x500, 5x300, 15x1000) to gain more confidence  Cool
Or is it too hard to cancel multiple sell order manually ?
127  Economy / Speculation / Re: So, who's wall is that? + logistics of a wall on: August 14, 2012, 01:16:41 PM
1 x 10,553.8007895 @ $12.2
Should he split it into various 1000, 2000 and 3000 to gain more confidence ?  Cool
128  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Litecoin Drops In Mining Profitability on: August 04, 2012, 08:36:12 AM
Enjoy the cheap LTC while it lasts.

+1 well said burnside
129  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: ATTN Litecoin GPU Miners - Scrypt support for cgminer on: August 02, 2012, 08:36:15 AM
2x5970, gets me 1388 kH/s, 347Kh/s per core with these parameters :
--scrypt --thread-concurrency 8000 --intensity 18 --lookup-gap 2 --gpu-threads 2 --gpu-memclock 1050 --gpu-engine 750 --auto-fan --auto-gpu --temp-target 81 --worksize 256

Stales at ~1-3% depending on how fast the network is running as most of them come on the new blocks.

Got cgminer isn't responding. What's your driver version ?
130  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: ATTN Litecoin GPU Miners - Scrypt support for cgminer on: August 02, 2012, 07:50:23 AM
That means the settings aren't at best. Play with it, try lower concurrencys and higher ones. The settings won't be the same as reaper. Try other worksizes.

2x5970, got 1022 kH/s with this parameter :
--scrypt --thread-concurrency 6144 --intensity 13 --lookup-gap 2 --gpu-threads 1 --gpu-memclock 1100 --gpu-engine 775 --auto-fan --temp-target 75 --worksize 256

Still less than 1.2 MH/s from reaper with the same configuration.
But temperature so far is good, better than reaper's temperature.

EDIT : Got 1.2 MH/s with intensity 15
I'm afraid to raise intensity because of the warning in readme : "Intensities over 13 start writing over the same ram and it is highly dependent on the GPU, but they can start actually DECREASING your hashrate, or even worse, start producing garbage with rejects skyrocketing."

EDIT 2 : Still fluctuating, now at 1.0 MH/s average.
131  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Bitparking Litecoin Exchange on: August 01, 2012, 08:20:14 AM
Just a quick question, why your fee (0.4%) is higher than BTC-E (0.2%) for each trade ?
132  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Battle of the Altcoins: LITECOIN vs SOLIDCOIN (bet on which will succeed) on: August 01, 2012, 04:18:04 AM
You should give information about the current price rate on Vircurex.

BTC / SC
Bid : 0.0030
Ask : 0.0037

BTC / LTC
Bid : 0.0065
Ask : 0.0067
133  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: New LTC exchange concept on: July 31, 2012, 02:49:21 PM
You should use salt to make it more secure
134  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [POLL] Will Price of LTC go up or down when BTC-e resumes trading? on: July 31, 2012, 01:30:09 PM
If you want to know, it is obvious that price will go down a lot at least for a month.
Network hash rate is reduced to 216.85 MH/s from the original 330 MH/s.

People will dump most of their litecoin when trade open again and quickly withdraw.
Some will switch back to mine bitcoin, then they will wait for at least a week or months until it get stable before trading again.
I mean, who can guarantee the exchange won't get hacked or compromised again for the second time ?
135  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: ATTN Litecoin GPU Miners - Scrypt support for cgminer on: July 30, 2012, 07:24:42 PM
I'm using 2x5970, with cgminer and this parameter :
--scrypt --thread-concurrency 6144 --intensity 16 --lookup-gap 2 --gpu-memclock 1100 --auto-fan --temp-target 75
AMD Driver 11.12
Windows 7

Got display driver not responding.
Tried it again and cgminer restarted my computer.
It's working fine on reaper, parameters that I use in reaper :

worksize 256
aggression 16
threads_per_gpu 1
sharethreads 18
lookup_gap 2
gpu_thread_concurrency 6144


Try intensity 13

Not crashing this once, but got 30 kH/s instead
136  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: ATTN Litecoin GPU Miners - Scrypt support for cgminer on: July 30, 2012, 04:49:19 PM
I'm using 2x5970, with cgminer and this parameter :
--scrypt --thread-concurrency 6144 --intensity 16 --lookup-gap 2 --gpu-memclock 1100 --auto-fan --temp-target 75
AMD Driver 11.12
Windows 7

Got display driver not responding.
Tried it again and cgminer restarted my computer.
It's working fine on reaper, parameters that I use in reaper :

worksize 256
aggression 16
threads_per_gpu 1
sharethreads 18
lookup_gap 2
gpu_thread_concurrency 6144
137  Economy / Gambling / Re: SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game on: July 30, 2012, 01:28:35 PM
Already reported the fake Satoshi Dice to proper authority, now it's disabled, enjoy !
I'm afraid someone will use the fake version and lost all their bitcoin by phishing attempt.



If you know any other fake version, please report it here.
138  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Summing up: Was there any 51% attack at all? on: July 30, 2012, 04:23:07 AM
Quote
Was there any attack at all?
No, but potential for attack is still there.

Quote
How much of the 51% hashing power was accomplished?
Up to 700 Amazon EC2 * 213 = 149 MH/s.
Unless people solo mine / join private pool and Unknown get to 30% (just like bitcoin pool chart), DDoS experiment will probably still continue as warning.

Quote
Was anyone affected?
People that don't really believe in Litecoin and dump all their Litecoin when BCX decide to attack it to save themselves.

Quote
How do we know?
More detail about attack and prevention :
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=96204.0
139  Bitcoin / Mining software (miners) / Re: CGMINER GPU FPGA overclock monitor fanspeed GCN RPC linux/windows 2.6.0 on: July 29, 2012, 05:41:32 PM
Typo ?

140  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Pools (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] The Litecoin PPS Pool - We pay for stale shares! on: July 29, 2012, 06:56:26 AM
Litecoinpool.org now still hold 30% hash rate, which is still pretty high.
Because attacker love ddosing litecoinpool.org as primary target, my suggestion is to raise the fee a bit to 6.5% and use the 1.5% fee to get a better server, if possible or as emergency funds if something bad happened (mining pool get hacked).

With 6.5% fee, maybe some people will move to other mining server or create their own.

You can reduce the fee back to normal again after things back to normal - more mining pool created, or some people leave to other server.
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