There are still daily flights to and from USA in Frankfurt:


Source: https://www.frankfurt-airport.com/de/am-flughafen/fluege.html

I could also see the different teams chartering a plane in a joint venture and bring back their players - plus some cargo maybe to lower the costs But then again, these players need to go into quarantine first, can't train etc. So this is all but easy.


Yes, I expect quite some clubs going down the drain in the end, but I didn't hear of any so far. Iirc there was some football club from Slovakia that declared bankruptcy, but other than that, everyone is still hanging on. In betting terms, I was hoping for teams to struggle and lay off personnel - and then the leagues resuming, which would have been quite interesting. But everything was cancellled rather than resumed, so no luck with that one (apart from german BBL).

As you said, the next season could become very interesting for the reasons you mentioned. We could see the dynamics in certain leagues change and bookmakers are often a bit slow to adapt, because they work a lot with data from the past.

How is Zalgiris doing ?

I posted the link already earlier in this thread, it was at one of his pressers some days ago: https://youtu.be/QtgVxGkrX1Y?t=126

Background is, that the guy earlier in that video was talking about the lifetime of that virus on surfaces etc. and how disinfectants can help clean these surfaces.

Yes, some smallish leagues are still running. But for me it's like this: A good tipster service is specialized in some sports/league and only provides bets from this area. If the sports/league is on break (summer/winter break or Corona like now), this service should be on break too. If these services switch to leagues like Tajikistan/Belarus now, where I assume they have no expertise, this is a red flag for me. If this service specialized in Tajikistan/Belarus football before, fine, but switching to these leagues for a lack of other sports running, is not what I would trust with my money.

There are some tipster that are generalists, i.e. they cover the "whole world of football" and might be able to easily learn and adapt to a new league. But I am skeptical about these services in general, because I would always prefer a specialist, that covers 1-3 leagues or one country. If a specialists suddenly switches to other leagues during this crisis, this is most likely not profitable. And generalists are more likely to not be profitable longterm. It's always better to do a few things 100%, than a lot of things 70%. Imo.

Tipping services popping up now, that cover table tennis, virtual sports and these small football leagues, are suspect anyway

So, Jameis Winston is heading to the Saints: QB Jameis Winston reaches one-year deal with Saints

I like that very much, because I like Winston and still think he is, or could be, an above average QB. He just needs to work on his weaknesses and Brees is just the right guy to teach him. He is just 26 and I see a lot of similarities between him and Brees. Winston is of course erratic, but this is something he can improve (i.e. get rid of to some extent). He will always have some more interceptions, but he is also pretty mobile, which Brees is not.

I don't think the Saints do plan (yet) with Winston being the successor of Brees, once he retires. But he is a good option to develop imo. If they can calm him down, he could very well be their next starting QB - I don't see Hill as that, he will always be some hybrid for them imo. If Winston doesn't play out longterm for the Saints, they at least have someone to jump in, if Brees goes down during the season and Winston will give them a good chance to still be competitive. You won't find any better backups and he is cheap for them.

Win-win.

And on the funny side of things, Winston is used to throw to Saints players:


Source: https://twitter.com/NFL_DovKleiman/status/1254431480052436994

Pretty cocky statement and I wouldn't have expected that from him. He comes over as quite a nice and humble guy, but that statement speaks different. $47,000 is like basically nothing for him and he should at least show signals of solidarity or keep his mouth shut entirely. I think he is correct in saying, that there are people way more in need, but ATP is a little family in the end and he should care about it. He can still help non-tennis players in need with the rest of his money

Otoh such a fund won't work anyway I think. These lower-ranked players are too heterogeneous - where to draw the line who gets help and who not ? And even in the Top 50-100, you have very different players, financially speaking. Some are veterans at the end of their career having earned good money, some are youngsters just moving up the rankings, some are journeymen living from prize money to prize money basically. Looking at the rankings, you have someone like Pospisil, who, I guess, could easily afford to give $8000, but someone like Koepfer didn't earn a lot this year and even throughout his career (remember there are taxes, staff to pay, flights, hotels etc.):

Pospisil earnings:


Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/players/vasek-pospisil/pd07/overview

Koepfer earnings:


Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/players/dominik-koepfer/ke73/overview

And even with those lower-ranked players, you have some, that are not really in need just judging by their earnings:

L. Mayer earnings, currently ranked #118:


Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/players/leonardo-mayer/md56/overview

Why should a guy like Koepfer give money to Mayer, makes no sense. Thiem has a point, that some players don't have the attitude it takes to get to the top, but there are surely players that work even harder than him, but just lack the talent in the end - and these players he is doing wrong with this cocky statement.

Dortmund boss Watzke was at Markus Lanz yesterday. He told the total amount at stake is around 750 million for the rest of the season for all teams of Bundesliga. This is what the clubs would lose, if play isn't resumed. Now the german government could just give those 750 million to the teams and be done with it, but this definitely would lead to a shitstorm never seen before - and rightfully so. The clubs will still lose money even by finishing the season, but any money is welcomed, since they don't make any money at all right now.

Another interesting issue he mentioned: If any player (or staff) tests positive, that team has to go into 14 day quarantine and their last played opponent too. This will of course mess up the schedule and could lead to lots of postponed matches, which would then have to be played at a later point. The schedule is already tight, with 9 rounds to be played until end of June (because of sponsoring contracts). I could see some fraud happening because of that, but that is maybe just in my mad mind. Lets see how this plays out in the end.

Thanks. It's not about (me) following your bets, but to follow, track, verify your challenge. No offense, but there are lots of people showing up here making lurid claims without being 100% transparent (often times not even 10% transparent). I think you know your stuff and are not one of those users. So, if you make a live-bet @1.5, where odds go down to @1.1 by the time of posting here, it's no problem, but helps with tracking. Good luck

They won't void the bet on request in this matter and this is actually a good thing, because it would also allow them, to void bets, where they themselves were caught off guard. Normally the punters have an advantage when it comes to late roster changes, because the bookmakers are not that well informed, like the experts are. So while in this case, this is to the bookmakers advantage (probably), most of the time we as punters can take advantage of it. And bets should stand then.

In some sports/bets, the bookmakers insure themselves by saying "XY has to start for bets to stand", because late changes happen quite frequently and this can turn the probabilites upside down. In Major League Baseball you always have this "has to start" condition.

Well, he didn't say: "Drink disinfectants, then you will be fine". But he speculated about internally use of disinfectanct being effective against the virus and that they should have a look at this matter - at an official, nation-wide televised, press conference. Every sane person is of course aware that this is life-threatening, but you will always have people, anywhere in the world, who will take that for real and just give it a shot. As a politician you just can't say such things, it's careless, because there is always that one dumb person, who will take everything for real and these people need to be protected. You put peoples life into danger and Trump should have known. There are cases, where people drank disinfectants now in the last days because of his weird speculations.

In Germany, if Merkel said such things, there is no way she would still be Chancellor the next day. I know the US is different and if Trump would walk on water, CNN would say, look, he can't even swim, but he crossed a red line there imo.

I will put this discussion from the other thread here, hope you don't mind @deisik

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I can't argue against that. There might be players, that only played dice very few times and they could be overall winning dice players. There are also people, that won millions in a lottery having played only once. But I am just looking at the theory/statistics/math behind it. The majority of people don't poker, play dice or do sportsbets only once, but they always come back and they are probably victims of the math then.

Change your point of view and think of the gambling site operator as a (single) player. They are easily able to play dice gazillion of times. And they will win 1% (if that is the house edge) with every play on average.



Yes, there are lots of graphs like this to be found from a lot of very good poker players. Quite a few of them were broke at least once during their career. Variance can hit very bad in poker - and for a long time. But Tom Dwan is a multi-millionaire nowadays. Is he a poker millionaire just because he was lucky ? No, he is a poker millionaire, because he mastered the game and played the odds/probabilities (while having the same starting hands - again on average - as everyone else). He surely played millions of hands in his career and the luck factor is negligible for him.

Looks like you are doing lots of live betting, where this is not always practicable, but could you post at least your pre-match bets in advance here ? Because those screenshots might not tell the whole story and it's easier to track for people then. If time, you could also post your live-bets here once submitted, although I know you probably couldn't care less while being in action and following the games.

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@Betwrong
To not further derail the convo here, sorry @OP, we should move to this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5227515

Yes, agree. He comes from LSU, where everything was clicking, adversity was just a word and he forgot how it feels to lose. Now he comes to an organization in shambles, where he will face adversity on a regular basis and might forget how it feels to win. Mahomes is a pretty tough guy imo and Burrow doesn't strike me as a person, who will easily deal with all these circumstances. He fits well into a working system, but can he carry and lead a team that has a lot of work to do ? I have my doubts.

AFC North is also a bit harder than AFC West imo. In AFC West, you have the Raiders and Chargers, that are a bit of messy organisations and the Broncos being so and so all the time. In AFC North, you have the Ravens and Steelers, who are always competitive and tough to play, while Cleveland is on the rise too (or said to be on the rise )


The pics from all the players sitting there with their friends and family were lovely. And I always find it interesting to have a look into the houses of people The coaches/GMs sitting at their desks with their kids/dogs/whatever around was nice too. That basement room from Roger Goodell though......that dude is the commissioner of a multi billion dollar business and announces the draft picks, which make a lot of young people insta-millionaires, from this very basic looking environment. Strange to watch, but also quite sympathic.

I don't think there is any scenario that hurts Biden. There are just scenarios that help/hurt Trump, but do they hurt Biden ? No. This is probably the same, but a distinction that has to be made, because this is all about Trump. If there are still "major issues" in November, this will hurt Trump (and help Biden indirectly). If the situation has vastly improved by November this will of course help Trump (and hurt Biden indirectly). Biden is exchangeable here imo, since there is not a lot he can do. People will always put any judgement - postiive or negative - on Trump.


If I understand correctly, you are referring to people actually going to physically vote or just staying at home due to fear of catching that virus. It could have an impact, but too many variables (for me) to draw any conclusions. Die-hard people will always vote no matter what. Those that are undecided or don't bother that much, will probably skip, depending on the overall situation. Are these people staying at home more likely to vote Trump or Biden ? Maybe Trump.

For football, this is just the pro players going against each other on the Playstation imo. There is running some tennis exhibition (https://www.flashscore.com/tennis/), but I only recognize one player there (Koepfer). It's probably some club level tennis, but with Corona you can bet on very strange things now

The Madrid Open have started a virtual tennis tournament too, where the pro players play each other on the Playstation and you can bet the outcome. To fight boredom, this is nice and I wouldn't deny the fact, that some value could be found, but for a longterm successful tipping service, this is not what I would be looking for^^

The teams from german BBL have agreed to not cancel the season, which is a good thing. But the new concept they worked out, is a bit weird too

From the 17 teams, 7 teams chose to just finish their season. Most of their players contracts will run out in May and they don't have the money to extend them. This new concept will not generate enough money for them, to make it profitable. These teams will stay in the league, there is no relegation this year. The 10 other teams, who voted to continue the season, will now more or less start a new season, by holding a tournament with groups of five and starting some playoffs afterwards. This tournament will take place at a fixed venue.

Among these ten teams, there is also two teams mentioned in this thread: Bamberg and Vechta. This was quite surprising to me, because they both laid off some players already.

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The players that left for USA couple of weeks ago, will come back to Germany and Bamberg is looking to sign Crawford&Atkins again for this "new season".

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Quite surprisingly Vechta chose to take part in the tournament, despite struggling like crazy financially. Ishmail Wainright (10.3ppg) was laid off too in the meantime, so this team is very weakened.

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BBL intends to finish the season by June 30th and for that to happen, this tournament has to start May 18th the latest. I think there should be good betting opportunities.

Yep, this is a good sign, but something every paid tipster should do. Why would you sell something that is supposed to be profitable and not participate in it yourself There are certain circumstances, where you are maybe not able to play those picks yourself, but I see no issues in doing so with E-Sports, which is available in so many books.
I also like his write-ups and the effort he puts into them. I admit to not understand a lot, but what can be found between the lines, is very solid.

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This service has now deleted their blog on blogabet (https://sportxtipster.blogabet.com/) without notice. Maybe they will come back at a later point with a new blog and also get active in their thread here in this forum, after football has resumed.

Thanks, I guess there is a power in this forum that could undo it, if absolutely necessary


Tbh I don't think he has even thought about it, but sometimes it's hard to figure out, what is going on in his head.
I have a feeling, that he actually is the only one, who wants to have himself as eternal president - and he can't change the constitution on his own; he needs help. I think it's really not easy to work under Trump, with the alpha-male he is. You either do your job according to his gusto or you are fired. I can only imagine how many times Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx have facepalmed themselves in recent weeks, when Trump was saying weird things at his pressers during this pandemic.

Look at this: https://youtu.be/QtgVxGkrX1Y?t=126

So he suggests looking into injecting/ingesting disinfectant into people, to treat patients. Every kid knows, that disinfectant is only for external use. Now later of course he said, that he was being sarcastic. But a) he doesn't seem to be sarcastic to me and b) lets assume, he was indeed being sarcastic. This is definitely not the right time to be sarcastic in such a bad crisis and with such a life-threatening "advice", that already resulted in people actually drinking disinfectant. This is not funny.

I see no way in the world that this would happen. I like to gamble on high odds, but there couldn't be any odd high enough for me, to risk a penny on that. He has too many enemies, even in his close circle imo.

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These recent accusations of sexual assault by Tare Reade have done Biden odds no good. Odds for Dem nominee have gone up from 1.13 to 1.16 and accordingly there are some new dynamics in the next president market as well. Lets see how this unfolds in the next weeks.

Einer der beiden Threads wird wohl eh gelöscht - am besten wären beide - deshalb der Vollständigkeit halber hier noch mal mein Post aus dem anderen Thread:

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Könntest du mal berichten, wie die ADK damals auf der vom Don kontrollierten Börse unters Volk gebracht wurden ?

This is very unlikely and next to impossible to do. I think it would need something way worse than Corona (don't get me wrong, this is already very bad) to cancel the elections and make Trump de facto lifetime president. We talked about a postponement earlier in this thread and that alone would already be something not that easy to do.

Source: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/presidential-election-postponed/

These markets in betting exchanges are a bit more difficult to read. Odds for Reps in the screenshot are 2.02, for Dems 1.98, any other 220 (the blue fields). The pink fields are orders waiting to get matched. So there is a punter waiting to bet 395,- on odds of 2.04 for Reps, another wants to bet 55,- on Dems for 1.99 and so on. Like a cryptocurrency exchange with ask and bid price - people buy/sell/trade their positions. In this exchange everything blue and left of it, is people having orders to bet against something. Everything pink and right of it, is people waiting to bet on a certain outcome.


This is basically what it means, yes. Polls and betting markets don't always go hand in hand. You will rarely see a betting market going completely contrary to polls, but they sometimes have their own sentiment, which you can see in this market to some extent. This is the fun and analytical thing in (sports-)betting and the opportunity to find valuable bets - the general public opinion and polls are not always right.


Well, it looks like you have quite some knowledge about US politics (definitely more than me), so if this your calculation and you think it's reasonable, you can certainly place a bet based on that. We all know, it's still some time to go until November and this will be an interesting summer in the US, but if you think these odds are too high, just go for it.

Current odds imply these probabilities:

Biden next president = 2.32 = 43.10%
Democrats win = 1.98 = 50.51%

If you think - all things considered - Biden has more than 43.10% or Dems win has more than 50.51%, then this is probably a good bet.