What does it mean?

Barely member.  It’s been two years. 

Don't give up fillippone.  Keep posting.  Sure you don't have to engage with exstasie, if you don't want to, but I don't think that he is trying to be hostile to you.  He seems to merely be attempting to explain the limits of the model from his perspective, and framing what the model says in a way that is different from you.

I find it interesting, too, about how much actual BTC prices might end up in fact deviating from the model, and some people will still proclaim that the model still applies (and they might or might not be correct).  Surely, there are a lot of us, including myself, that agree that the model has a very high explanatory value, and even though I don't really understand the math, exactly, I have no real reason to dispute the 95% R^2 value is either correct, or damn close to being in the ballpark of correct.

It can go back a little to the point that I mentioned earlier regarding how much status quo institutions banks and governments might want to fight the momentum of the truth of the dynamics of the model to either make the model become untrue or to make it appear to be untrue.  Likely the stronger the strength of the model, the more likely powerful status quo cannot either get the model to break or get it to appear to be untrue for a very long period of time... because the more that the model is close to being true in terms of past facts and likelihood that past facts are going to apply to future world dynamics, the more accurate of an explanation it is regarding both the past and the future and the more likely the BTC price is going to gravitate towards the mean that is in the future aspect of the model.. whether fucktwat manipulators want the btc price to gravitate in that direction or not.

We will see... we will see.

We also know that there is a range, too and there is fluctuation of busy times and less busy times.  Yeah, in late 2017/early 2018 the network was being attacked, and if you wanted transactions to go through right away, you may have needed to spend $20 to $100 in fees during that time.... you could spend a lot lower fees, but it might take a few days.. and you could even spend lower fees and it would have ended up taking a month or two if you were really cheap and you sent low fee transactions (close to free) in the beginning of December 2017(during the worst of the period), those low fee transactions might not have cleared until the end of January.  There were middle ground amounts, too, and there were periods in which it appeared the mempool was clearing up, but the mem pool did not really clear up until the end of January 2018 when the spam attack stopped.

It is not easy to speculate exactly what are going to be the various options available come $100k bitcoins, and if $100k bitcoins are going to be a sustained price at sometime within the next 2-5 years.  But, anyhow, if you want transactions to go through faster, you pay higher fees, and 1% does not seem to be unreasonable for what you are getting, which is way the fuck more than paypal or credit card fees, like you mentioned), depending on what you are trying to accomplish, especially when you have a bank in your pocket and all of that actual meaningful potential power.  On chain and off chain, and options are still going to be something that is hard to speculate about exactly, because some options might become more feasible in the future too, whether lightning network or some other yet unknown option(s).

To be fair, Pirate could be motivated to lie or at least to exaggerate in various ways that might be a bit unclear to us, rather than "compelled."  No one has cross examined him on those points regarding OGNasty, because it seems that OGNasty was not part of that particular investigation, as far as I had seen.

Certainly, I am not asserting that Pirate did in fact lie, but to be somewhat fair to OGNasty, he was not a target of the investigation (at least as far as we know), but I suppose if there were enough facts that demonstrated OGNasty or someone else to be possibly culpable for a crime or even a civil infraction, then the SEC or some other body, like the Department of Justice, might have been motivated to bring charges against him and/or some other persons that were connected to the matter.. but sometimes they just are attempting to get the BIGGER fish (perhaps Pirate in this case) rather than the messy circumstances of the possible smaller fish.

  Surely, government agents have discretion in these kinds of matters, so their not bringing charges does not mean that OGNasty might not have been guilty of some kind of infraction (civil or criminal) if they were to chose to pursue an investigation in that direction.

So, yeah, there would remain a certain amount of due process issue if anyone were to attempt to ascribe too much truth to evidence that is presented in a proceeding in which someone else (seemingly pirate in that case) was the subject of the investigation rather than OGNasty or anyone else that Pirate had named as additional Pass through agents, so in that regard, OGNasty might not have been requested to give evidence. 

It is also possible that OGNasty was requested to give evidence, and sometimes evidence is not immediately available publicly - or OGNasty might have not voluntarily cooperated with any request to give evidence, and the Agency would then be faced with a decision regarding whether to subpoena him.. also a discretionary matter regarding whether to subpoena a witness and/or documents, and he would not have to be a subject of the investigation in order to receive a subpoena or even a voluntary request for evidence, if they thought that testimony from him would be helpful in any aspect of their investigation that they had been conducting.

I am NOT changing my mind in any regard here because I do think that what has already been shown so far in regards to the corroboration of the testimony of Pirate does seem to demonstrate that OGNasty may have pocketed a certain amount of funds that were returned to him after the date that he had refunded all of the pass through investors, and surely, the amount that OGNasty pocketed could be much higher than what Twitchy has argued to be the minimum amount that he can show to rise to the level of beyond a reasonable doubt (including considering OGNasty's ongoing choice not to answer or explain), and for that reason and maybe for other reasons, OGNasty has concluded that it would be better for him to remain silent rather than speak - since maybe his feels that he is NOT really be able to unambiguously clarify the matter, and if he speaks, then more questions might be raised rather than answered, perhaps?

Of course this is not a court of law or even any kind of administrative proceeding, either, but we still can be guided by those kinds of standards in attempting to decide how to look at the evidence and what has been presented as arguments, too, including the burden of proof matters, and including assertions from Tecshare (in his opinion) that whatever evidence and arguments that have been presented so far do not rise to a level of sufficiently proving OGNasty of engaging in the alleged wrongdoing. 

I personally, think Tecshare is being a bit selective in his own conclusions, but anyhow, if this were a criminal court or even a civil court, OGNasty could chose to exercise his 5th amendment right not to testify.. but sometimes adverse inferences can also be drawn from that choice not to testify based on gaps in the evidence that tends to show.  Of course, if there is no criminal matter pending, then exercising 5th amendment rights seems more suspect, but anyhow, anyone can assert that the burden of proof is not with them but instead with the party(ies) bringing the allegations.

If OGNasty continues NOT to cooperate, then we would have to conclude reasonable inferences based on the evidence that we have - which seems to lean in favor of OGNasty NOT sending the funds to the investors of the pass through after he received them. 

Of course, the burdens are different if we are talking criminal which would be 1) beyond a reasonable doubt (which seems a bit of a high and unnecessary standard in a situation like this) or in civil matters either 2) preponderance of the evidence or 3) clear and convincing evidence, and seems that there is enough evidence to meet either of the last two thresholds regarding more than just the part of the evidence (the smaller amount of the funds) that Twitchy asserts to have reached the higher standard (at least with the evidence so far including considering that OGNasty is largely refusing to materially cooperate (which maybe he does not have to), but we can still decide where the evidence points, too, even if he chooses to NOT cooperate.

It is probably not healthy to consider shitcoinery as a zero sum game.  There is all kinds of symbiotic dynamics going on, both good and bad, and even if we might spend a lot of time, bashing on shitcoins (that they certainly deserve such bashing above and beyond), there remains a certain amount of descriptive reality there in the sense that "it is what it is," and bitcoin likely gives few fucks about the shitcoins, and surely sometimes will benefit from them or have some image distractions, but what can you really do about dumb in the world?  Scammers are going to take advantage of dumb to as much of an extent as they can, but sooner or later, like you mentioned, the diverted value will flow back into bitcoin. 

There is ONLY so much that can be done regarding how people are going to be mislead into various shitcoins and the process likely just has to play out, while, at the same time, we can continue to call a spade a spade and to denigrate shitcoins in various ways along the way, just like we denigrate roach for being a dumbass, but it is not necessarily going to stop him from being a dumbass, including some other dumbasses who he lures into believing that gold is the future.. blah blah blah.

Santa must have been hanging around with Bargain Boyz too much.....    Can't think clearly anymore, just like Lambie.... 

If they only like you for your money, you might end up getting a mutiny.  


Lot's of shitcoins in that sleigh, too... might cause more disloyalty....

Rudolph might be a bit pissed off, too; having to pull your fat ass around (along with the shitcoins) without any help.


Exactly!!!!!!!!  serveria.. .knows what's up. 

Could seriously contribute to some very real controversies with bitcoin in the middle of it (unless they are considering other crypto currencies, such as shitcoin Bcash SV?   or some other less liquid quasi-centralized scam nonsense? such as Ethereum of Tron hahahahaha)

I think that the model is really great, and I like the 4 year fractal comparison model and the s-curve exponential adoption model and the 7 network effects model/which is also about adoption... .

I just get a bit worried if people start to assign a 95% probability on investing in the future of bitcoin, in that kind of a price expectation model.. which I have already stated my concerns, and similar concerns can be made about the other models, which I like to point out the attributes of those kinds of BTC price/growth prediction models to shitcoin pumpers, bitcoin naysayers, bitcoin fence sitters no coiners and precoiners.  

Any of those bullish bitcoin models could end up causing a lot of rekkt regular peeps if they don't themselves engage in prudent self-tailored financial balancing.  

Surely, I am not criticizing your sharing of information related to this topic.

It's a trademark infringement..... a wall of squigglies.  

Jail is probably better - otherwise he is going to continue to scam and cheat innocent people who get confused by these kinds of matters, even though they shouldn't but we cannot expect the rest of the world to just get smarter... that's not going to happen, and so dumb people should not be punished by allowing obvious scammers and fraudsters that are at his level to run free in the world.


Fair as long as Craig does not have any abilities to carry out future scams/frauds.

WOW!!!!!!!!!!

Now, that's a wall of charts, Lucky.    

FTFY  or maybe I totally butchered the simplified version of it?.

I had also heard Plan B say that he largely believe that the model supports a much higher price but he is sticking with a more conservative description, and even with all of that, I still doubt that assertions of 95% explanatory factor of historical results would mean that predictive capacity is 95% or that anyone should be investing in bitcoin in terms of expecting 95% odds of the price reaching $50k to $100k in the next year to 18 months.

In other words, there are forces with a lot of capital out  there (banks and governments) that could have incentives and even means to attempt to cause the stock to flow model to be wrong in the short to medium term, even if they might not be able to negate it in the longer term. 

I would think that anyone who is investing in bitcoin based on feelings of surity that even approach anything more than 50/50 regarding some of the future performance expectations of bitcoin, even using stock to flow, might be gambling way too much with their wealth, including the employment of leverage and practices like that might be justified if assigning too high of probabilities to future events... even if they might end up getting it right.

Don't get me wrong, I am quite content to have bullish models out there, like PlanB's, so I am not really consciously changing my BTC investment strategy, which might even be justified based on some of the seemingly attempts of greater certainty that seem to come from some of these kinds of charts that have decently high explanatory values regarding so far price performance and imply high value probabilities that the future will follow the models.

I am still sticking with my recommendations that anyone still not in bitcoin should be putting 1% to 10% of their available investment assets into bitcoin and NOT be engaging in risky behavior in that direction in terms of making sure that the rest of their cashflow and other investments are in order.  I do understand that sometimes there are going to be younger people who are just getting started in investing and sometimes when just getting started, there might be some justification to start with one investment at a time, and maybe in those kinds of circumstances, they would put it in bitcoin while understanding that their investment in bitcoin remains risky.... while at the same time having some of this asymmetric bet aspect to it, as long as they are not leveraging and NOT investing more than they can afford to lose in terms of their own prudent and mostly non-leveraging budgeting justifications.

Also, regarding leveraging, don't get me wrong.  I think that leveraging can be used to get rich faster than without it, but leveraging should only be used in conservative means in terms of not gambling with it, in my opinion, so it can be used to increase cashflow.. with very clear abilities to be able to pay it back without any major penalties or unreasonable rates....

The test case has proven very positive results.  Accordingly, you have inspired a potential new future direction, and possible novels in relatively small places.     This is even better than the near infinite embedding of quotes!!!!!

People sometimes ask whether other people have a problem or whether they have a problem.  

In this case, you are the one with the problem.  Sorry to be the only person frank enough to tell the truth and to break the news.   Everyone else ("we" (royal)) doesn't have no problems with this issue.  In other words, no one else complained. (except just a few peeps here and there)



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Testing:
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Belgium?  Where is that?  Is it a town or a region?

I heard of France, at least.

I hope that she does not slap you upside the head* for attempting to crowd-source your demonstrations of love.

*We might lose a used to be hatmaker.



You must be losing your vision.  I suggest that you buy yourself (for christmas or otherwise) some reading glasses.  You will thank me later.

What does it tell us about the future of tether?