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12121  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 19, 2019, 02:44:54 AM
Damn you plus token! Here's the dump.

Quote
Whale Alert
@whale_alert
20m
🚨
  789,525 #ETH (105,099,509 USD) transferred from PlusToken to unknown wallet

https://twitter.com/whale_alert/status/1207464036142596096

What is ETH?

My thinking is if they dump, it may bring crypto down together.

you mean that if they dump Ethereum, then bitcoin's price might come down too? It might... but I thought that the theory was that they PlusToken scammers were dumping BTC, too?  Even that is a pretty lame ass theory attempting to act as if bitcoin cannot absorb the dumping of 20k or 40k coins or whatever number of BTC they happen to have to dump, if that is what they are doing... which is also questionable if that is even happening.
12122  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 19, 2019, 02:41:44 AM
Expect a $12.8k interim bottom in ~7months, July 2020?

Your viewpoint, just like everyone else who claims the price is somehow guaranteed to go up at a 45 degree angle to infinity due to the Keynesian, artificial scarcity event known as the halving, overlooks the fact there has to be an actual buyer for whatever price you artificially try to rig it to.  If JayJuanGeeCoin exists and JayJuanGee corners the entire market and artificially rigs the price to $1 billion each, is the price $1 billion if there's nobody willing to buy one for that?

No one is claiming that BTC price is guaranteed to go up, you dipwad.

There are models that predict the price and price direction, and surely if the price moves too far out of line with the predictions of the models, then the model might become negated by empirical evidence.

Your attempted use of a coin, such as JJGcoin, remains a stupid-ass strawman argument, at best.  Bitcoin is way the fuck broader of a market than just a small group of people, and such liquidity has been growing over the past 10 years and continues to grow, which throws a BIG ass monkey wrench in your own lame-ass seemingly bitter and resentful attempts at a model that attempts to get you back in the market below your $700 sell price in 2016, which seems way the fuck unlikely to happen.  Sorry about your loss.... (I take that back... no I'm not sorry for your loss.. with your level of ongoing demonstrations of dumb and unwillingness to learn, you seemed to have deserved getting left behind by the bitcoin train and having had an expression named after your level of dumb... ie.. "getting roached.")
12123  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 19, 2019, 01:18:01 AM
Damn you plus token! Here's the dump.

Quote
Whale Alert
@whale_alert
20m
🚨
  789,525 #ETH (105,099,509 USD) transferred from PlusToken to unknown wallet

https://twitter.com/whale_alert/status/1207464036142596096

What is ETH?
12124  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 19, 2019, 12:18:41 AM


Thanks for the link, good read.


What the fuck have i been doing in this thread for nearly 6 years?  Pumpening bitcoin, and no other fucking coin.  Stop being delusional, and spreading misinformation - otherwise gonna have to bring out batman, and you would not want that.  

You playing the Long Con?  Grin

Do you mean that I might come out with a coin or some other way to attempt to scam JJG lovers (to the extent any exist) out of their coins?  Hahahahaha  You gullible fucks.  

Do I have a taker?  A fan club pre-register?

Anyone?  Anyone?


 Cry Cry Cry Cry

No one signed up, and hey.. I give less than two shits.   Wink

Well shit I wrote a ton of shit and lost it all and gotta run so I'll try to type all that worthless crap out again tonight.

There are tricks to wall of text employment methods and strategies.  I will be giving a short seminar on this in the near future, at a very reasonable price.   Wink

Still Hodling with a small grimace.

Good.  Don't let your eye bugger out too much, it is not good for your health.

And you don't want your eyes to get stuck or to end up looking like this guy.

12125  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 19, 2019, 12:06:10 AM
We don't use coinbase in these here parts.

Krexyun: You don't use Coinbase in these here parts.

Of course, you are out of consensus. 

What else is new?

It's not that your lack (failure/refusal) of being in consensus was an UNKNOWN.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
12126  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2019, 10:49:45 PM
Coming out of retirement happens more often than you think. Not one in a million. I wasn't exactly retired a couple years ago, but then I was unemployed surviving on coins. Wasn't enough I guess.

IIRC, you played your cards really well (converted the altcoins into BTC at the peak) and ended with around 50BTC a couple of years ago. WTF did happen?

I didn't convert them all. That was the value if I had. So yeah .... right ... The alts were ... staking or getting rewards, and I lived off those rewards without eating into the principal, so in that sense I wasn't losing. But then everything crashed, so the alts weren't enough.

If I did convert it all, I would most likely still be unemployed today but it's a good thing I discovered all sorts of traditional financial investments because of that that I'd know better what to do next time and at least set aside some as a conservative investment in fiat, or as an emergency fund at least.

Other things happened in between, like exchanges literally dying as I was trading them, so lost some that way.

Sorry to hear that. I remember that, at the time, I though it was envious how well you played the up and downs, but I guess shit can always happen no matter what. 50BTC would still be a pretty healthy stash even at current prices.

I am not too much into alts, but I do remember how Byteball, for example, had an sky high valuation while it was paying "rewards" and then it dropped to almost nothing when it stopped doing it. I guess the moral of the story is that alts will always be alts and Bitcoin is the only safe (even if volatile) store of value.

The paying of rewards or interest are ways to trick people out of their bitcoins.  Lot's of previous BTC HODLers get tricked into no coiner status (or near no coiner status) due to these kinds of get rich quick or passive income (that is really not passive income) ploys.

Everybody has gotten smarter since the last shitcoin mania which means shitcoins may never reach their ath prices again.

I will believe it when I see it regarding 1) people actually getting smarter.  There is still a lot of dumb money out there given that BTC/crypto adoption is likely in the 1% of the population arena... 2) a decent quantity of shitcoins could still pump again.  Might not be all of the same ones, but there are some shitcoins that likely have pumpening skills to re-enliven their worthless zombie projects into pumpementalisms 2.0 or 4.0 or whatever revivalism version.


12127  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2019, 09:19:21 PM
'The bottom' my arse.
Not yet sorry lads.
Look at the weekly, it's ugly out there.

Don't tell me that you still have hope for your Hairy bairy bet?

I'm gonna have to bring out batman..., if someone else does not beat me to it.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy  Cheesy Cheesy

'The bottom' my arse.
Not yet sorry lads.
Look at the weekly, it's ugly out there.

Says the betting guy  Kiss

Well.. mic beat me to part of my point, absent the batman "snap out of it" meme...  Wink Wink
12128  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2019, 09:15:26 PM
@Dabs then I got  my story wrong excuses..... I though you told to invested 50btc you held....

I wish I had traded them all, that would have been the correct move, in hindsight. I think I'd survive maybe 5 years just on BTC alone even if I never earned any more; I'd probably be looking for employment by the second year anyway so I could preserve as much of the BTC as possible.

I "earned" the alts, so it's not like money or fiat I had that I then invested into BTC or alts ... maybe everything was good for everyone a couple years ago and we all didn't see the winter coming.

Yeah, it’s still understandable when floating on some awesome incomes to keep onto them though sometimes need to secure some in the main asset of own believe.... and that should be BTC..... then again we all make mistakes, I made my major one as well....  Cry Cry Cry

Of course, there is an altcoin versus BTC lecture in there, but still BTC is risky as fuck in terms of volatility, so if you are going to retire you have to prepare for that and have a variety of income streams, and better if they are not really correlated at all to BTC, to the extent that you keep a decent portion of value (and expect income from it in BTC, too).  Seems to me that any kind of prudence would prepare for 90%, and possibly even more price corrections in BTC.. even if such price corrections might not happen in the future.. but we cannot really and realistically rule out such levels of correction in the future (even in the present).
12129  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2019, 09:07:07 PM
I don't know why I find this so fucking funny...



Because you are jaded as fuck.   Tongue



Sorry to admit that I am jaded as fuck too... and getting a lot of internally deep pleasure out of anyone getting rekt (the more the better) when the BTC price goes against them, especially in the up direction.
12130  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2019, 09:00:18 PM
Coming out of retirement happens more often than you think. Not one in a million. I wasn't exactly retired a couple years ago, but then I was unemployed surviving on coins. Wasn't enough I guess.

That is part of the preparation (and maybe even over-preparation) point that I was trying to make.  

Not about you, specifically, but more about making sure that you have your bases sufficiently covered after you do cross into that preparing for "retired" arena (and assessing readiness).. and even to have the less than likely scenarios covered.  

Of course, coming out of retirement after NOT intending to happens way too frequently than what the wannabe retired folks had attempted to plan and prepare for.
12131  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2019, 08:48:29 PM
@JJG: Price went roughly $100 lower than on nov. 25th, so does this count as double bottom yet?

I am not really a "double" bottom expert.  I am still working on my skills in that arena, so I might need to see a visual in order to determine.    Shocked

Thought you were writing that you're waiting for a DB?
Anyway:



EDIT: Well, it's not a confirmed DB as long as the price is below $7.9k, the missing part i just read up quickly.
Noobs, bloody noobs (Nepultura)  Roll Eyes

That was not the kind of visualization that I was considering to be helpful to truly be able to analyze(feel) the matter on both a logical and emotional level.  Embarrassed
12132  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2019, 08:39:37 PM
What is ownership rate?
9% of the population? What are we talking about? US? World?
No source data... looks like bullshit to me.

Yeah.. that is way to damned high, unless we are talking about a specific bitcoin saturated location... Even the USA that is supposedly more highly internet/bitcoin aware is lucky to have anything close to 5% overall, and maybe only achieving anything close to 9% in a few pocket cities, perhaps.
12133  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2019, 08:29:15 PM
Observing the Wall Observer, observing the bottom. Cool



#slightly homo

I don’t know what you searched to find that pic, bro.

Let’s stick to the traditional WO, bottom material in future Wink

I would like to proclaim that "we"(royal we that is) are not that open-minded in these here parts.
12134  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2019, 08:10:16 PM


Is it safe out there now?

Whoaza..  Is that you BlindMayor?    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
12135  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2019, 08:06:08 PM
So, let's face it: Lambie was wrong this time too. No $5k no 4k or 3k. Not even $6k dammit! He's so proud of himself for "declaring baby bull market" but how many times since then he was wrong predicting bear moves? There has to be some reason a person predicts bear moves every now and then. The guy is smart, I admit. But to me he's just a smarter version of gembitz. Sorry Lambie fans.   Cool

I've only heard him tossing out the number $5k in the last day... did he do so previously? He just said it won't go to $3k. And I've got news for you: this is $6k. This is it. He's been right about calls he made 3-4 months or so ago, which is better than most can say.

Everybody is a smarter version of gembitz. My comb is a smarter version of gembitz. Yeah I guess I'm a Lambie fan. Oh well, I'll have to learn to live with it.

I guess that you had not noticed that he had been calling for a price correction ever since about early May when we crossed over $6k... So, yeah.. sooner or later he is likely to end up being correct, so that merely makes him entertaining, at best, rather than the soothsayer god-like creature that he would like to have doted upon his attention-whoring little noggen.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
12136  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2019, 07:50:27 PM
Oh. I see it's time to leave WO for a while. Nothing good for next 10 pages or so.

Don't lose hope, Phil.
12137  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2019, 07:23:11 PM
@JJG: Price went roughly $100 lower than on nov. 25th, so does this count as double bottom yet?

I am not really a "double" bottom expert.  I am still working on my skills in that arena, so I might need to see a visual in order to determine.    Shocked
12138  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2019, 07:20:01 PM
[edited out]

The problem with life expectancy is that it is just that... an "expectancy". It is very rare cases when you know what your real "limits" are. For example, I could die tomorrow, in ten years, or even in 30-40 years. Heck, maybe there is a little chance for 50 more years (not unheard of in my family).

Yeah, but not all health situation or changes in the health condition are created equally.  Some are more obviously life changing (shortening) than others.  Of course, there are going to be a decent amount of instances (perhaps even anecdotal) that change the odds, and sure we might not want to lose hope if such a change in circumstance (referring to health) comes upon any of us, so my point is that sometimes there is a decent amount of objective probabilities that are way the fuck out of your control that give a pretty damned solid number that might be shorter than you wished and is hard to beat, even if it is NOT exactly set in stone.



That doesn't help to really change investment behaviour.

Of course, if you are not really sure, then you are not really sure, but you have to kind of attempt to ballpark it, otherwise, you might really NOT enjoy any of your accumulated wealth by expecting to live until 120 or some other ridiculous number and then the actual happening causes you to only live until 52 or 64 or 78 or some other age that ends up being way the hell less than you had anticipated or acted upon.

Sure, the opposite is true, too.  You surely don't want to spend all your wealth by the time that you are 52, and then you end up living until 120 or some other age that was much beyond your expectation(s).  Sometimes, also, your employment options might become a bit screwed too, depending on how well you planned or prepared, and you might not be wanting to either retrain or even do some kind of work that you deem to be "beneath" you when you are 52, for example.


I mean, if I knew I only got 10 years left. Well, then I got more than enough to cover that with considerable better lifestyle/spending habits than I currently have. Without working. But what If live 30-40 years more? Then I don't have enough, so it is for that scenario that I need to keep making money.

Sure, even with a prior heart attack, you (or anyone else) might still NOT be sure the extent such incident might have substantially and materially changed your expectations.. yet there are some kinds of heart attacks that might give you a pretty damned clear idea about what the change is, even if that changed number is not quite concrete, it still might be clear and convincing evidence that you should not be ignoring to your own peril if you do.

Also, even if you have it all perfectly covered, sometimes shit happens. Like... you know, the tax agency (or an accident) decides there is reason to seize all your banking money and assets.

We make these kinds of choices all of the time, and surely some people are better at them than others.  We don't always want to blame people for their own perils, but surely you are likely to know of examples of people who have taken really inadequate preparation measures and then end up kind of in a negative predicament that they had seemed to have largely caused.  Maybe not completely, but they might have a lot of culpability in their own perilousness.  We might still have some compassion for some of these people, of course, but there might ONLY be so much that we are willing to do in terms of our own chosen charity actions.

Then there's the having some money outside the grid that I was talking in the post in the BSV thread.

Sure.  A "bug out bag" that might not end up being used, but not a bad preparation plan.  Of course, you are likely on a spectrum of decently prepared peeps if you have a kind of "bug out bag," but sometimes even your "bug out bag" might inadequately prepare you if you were to end up being a dumbass like roach (if we somewhat believe him for what he says that he does) who puts a decently high expectation that PMs such as gold/silver need to be in his "bug out bag", and if we believe him, it really appears that he may have put way the fuck too much preparation in an event that might have a 1% chance of playing out in a way that would have caused his "bug out bag" to be reasonable.

Of course, each of us have to decide what is reasonable for our "bug out bag" and we might not get it right, exactly, either but we just do our best based on what we know and believe.


So the thing is you never know how much money is "enough", even if you are not particularly "greedy". But, even if you already reached that point... there is still a solid reason to keep some (or even most) in an asset like Bitcoin.

If you have led a life in which you constantly have striven towards living within your means, then you likely have pretty decent ideas about which items are luxuries and which items are basic necessities.

So, in that regard, perhaps each of us builds and builds and builds our reserves (and even a cushion), and at some point, we likely realize that we have sufficiently enough and even perhaps a bit of an overkill that is reasonably enough.

Sure, there are people who want more and more and more, and never can get enough; however, that goes back to my point regarding attempting to establish a life long practice of living within reasonable means, so there is considerable awareness of that.

There are people who describe how to get rich and to retire when you are 30 or some other decently low age, and a lot of those techniques have to do with living within your means.. and thus when it comes time to pull the trigger (and become jobless) the passive amount of income that is guaranteed is more than enough to account for the level of expenses, and perhaps even continuing to build, without eating into principle, if the retirement age is so low that there is a large number of years that the nest egg has to end up sustaining itself, even with the various kinds of known unknowns and unknown unknowns that can end up playing out in various future scenarios... and no one, who has retired based on passive income principles, really wants to come out of retirement because they inadequately prepared, unless the unknown unknown ended up being so damned extreme that the "coming out of retirement" becomes completely and reasonably justified (a kind of one in a million situation rather than a 1/100.. anyhow, your "early" retirement should nearly completely prepare for the overwhelming majority of the 1/100 -type situations.).


Yeah, it would help to have a more precise live expectancy figure to be able to plan your financials...

Do you really want to know?  Probably it would not be a good thing to actually know, especially if the number ends up being a lot smaller than you expected.  In other words, there is some truth to the expression about being careful what you wish for.

but that's not how life works.

true dat.

Maybe there are some pension/insurance funds that you could use (at a cost) that would cover you in case you end living much more than your statistical expectancy... but that's something I have not really looked into, yet.

You can probably do better on your own; however, there are a lot of people who do get into various kinds of annuities that pay out no matter what, and hopefully they end up upholding their end of the bargain... It is similar to pensions and government plans... they likely have decent odds of paying out, but sometimes they might not end up paying out, so good to have back up plans in case some of those plans end up renegging on their part of what you had thought was the deal....

So, yeah, you can add up the various kinds of income that you have that might not really be as clear until you start to draw upon them, and there might also be some lacking in clarity regarding when you are going to decide to draw upon them, and in the end, there may be some situations in which all of the income streams that you are expecting to get (upon old age or disability or whatever) are not really adding up to enough feelings of security regarding income or maybe they are too correlated in terms of their risk, and in that regard, there can be some desires to establish another non-correlated source that is somewhat more guaranteed. and bitcoin might not be that, either, even though bitcoin could still be one of the sources that are NOT correlated but there is a certain amount of cushion that is there, and surely need to have a certain amount of security too in terms of losing access, third party interference attempts and things like that, assuming that you have sufficiently calculated the other going to zero risks and reasonable considerations like that.   
12139  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2019, 06:03:50 PM
My TA says we need a new Wall Observer poll. $6,500 hit to the cent on Coinbase.

We don't use coinbase in these here parts.

In other words, coinbase can fuck off.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


Anyhow, in case your mistakened price reference was innocent, Stamp remains our default WO official pricenings reference point until the Schelling point changes.. which has not happened for the past 5 years or so, yet (reference point used to be GOX, but we should have noticed, by now, what happened to GOX...RIP.. Cry Cry Cry).
12140  Economy / Speculation / Re: Q4 -Quarter 4 speculation thread, where will 2019 end, join the LIST on: December 18, 2019, 05:46:59 PM


Yeah but nearly two weeks? Really?

I do understand that close to the current price tends to be a decent ball park idea of a short-term throwing out of a price prediction, but that does not mean flat for two weeks, does it?

Seems that it would more likely mean: 1) down and then up or 2) up and then down rather than 3) flat for two more weeks, especially in this particular bat country.  Wink
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