wtf is the point of having any coin if you're just going to sell it. fuck that, I'm hodling till they bend the knee
then might lend them a bit if they're very fucking polite
Imagine a world with only one currency and that is bitcoins... Sure, that rosey scenario might happen, but it does not seem prudent to plan your life around such a scenario happening, because then you are merely engaging in gambling rather than engaging in realistic preparation(s). |
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 The year is 2021, it’s November & the cold, dark nights are starting to close in & 1 BTC is $154,000. Most of the WO’s have cashed in a significant % of their BTC. It’s been a crazy roller coaster since the end of 2020. Boblawblaw is chilling on his ranch, wiping his ass with $100 bills. micgoossens married cryptoqueeen in the Maldives, he owns 50 Michelin Star Restaurants across the world. JJG regularly drives his Lambo around LA, banging chicks & doing blow. V8 lives in a $12,000,000 countryside estate. ...................... Fill in the rest  Fillippone is the one still posting on the WO when can sneak away from RL, as even with corn @154,000 he is still binded to real work. Sorry to be lame guys. It is not easy to get rich quickly, without just purely getting lucky. On the other hand, if you keep stacking sats, I would imagine that an 18x price appreciation (aka $154k BTC) should put you in a better position than you would be otherwise, even if you have not quite reached fuck you status, yet. |
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No big volume, no sign of the Bargain Boyz to be found. Highly unlikely this downtrend from 14k ends till they show up and declare "cheap coins".
Coins have to be so cheap that they feel compelled to buy. Hopefully the 6ks will do the trick but we all know it could be lower. The massive volume will tell us when. It always has every other time in Bitcoin, this time is not different.
You are exaggerating. There is no pattern in which every single time that the BTC price trend reversed was upon clear and convincing high volume. That's nonsense. Sure sometimes high volume reversal happens and sometimes it does not. Cue the JJG "slayer you are annoying me with your downtrend stuff" even though thats what this has been since 14k for almost 5 months Call it what you will: "downtrend" or "correction within a bullmarket" .. you are still seeming to ascribe too much certainty to something that can go either way... whether subsequently you end up being correct or NOT or whether you subsequently are able to frame the matter in your favor to assert that you were correct, in the end, you are largely just guessing or playing off some kind of hunch that may or may end up playing out in a way that fits your narrative. You better watch out, because you won't want to ascribe being so god damned right to yourself that you end up being like jonoiv or roach or some other unseemly character that gets stuck on a narrative that ends up NOT playing out anywhere close to their repeatedly asserted expectations.. We all knew the pump to 14k was a minibubble and a minibear market would have to follow.
Nothing wrong with that so long as you are not ascribing too much "have to happen" to how much correction that you believe is "necessary" before UPpity is resumed. I dont make the rules around here, this is Bitcoin Country.
Glad that you recognize that, at least...even though you are trying to come off as some kind of all knowing sorcerer, which is annoying to say the least... ... ... By the way, I could give too ratt's asses about whether you are delivering "unpleasant truths", but that does not seem to be what you are doing. Instead, you are ascribing too much soothsayer status to your pronouncements in an effort to appear like you are the smartest guy in the room.... which is:  Good news is when the mythical Bargain Boyz show up for cheap coins, that will be the last time we ever see those prices and the ride to 100k-200k can commence.  I suspect Bargain Boyz are still loading up on Popeyes right now but will soon turn their attention to corn if we catch their eye with some bargain sub 7k prices. 6400 would really do the trick imo. oh really?  |
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The year is 2021, it’s November & the cold, dark nights are starting to close in & 1 BTC is $154,000. Most of the WO’s have cashed in a significant % of their BTC. It’s been a crazy roller coaster since the end of 2020. Boblawblaw is chilling on his ranch, wiping his ass with $100 bills. micgoossens married cryptoqueeen in the Maldives, he owns 50 Michelin Star Restaurants across the world. JJG regularly drives his Lambo around LA, banging chicks & doing blow still writes wall of text on every single page of the WO, trying to figure out, what he tries to figure out always.   V8 lives in a $12,000,000 countryside estate. ...................... Fill in the rest Didn't filled in anything, but I did correct one....  What a hater. |
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Getting too close to $8.2k. Don't like this at all. We're all being fucked with ahead of the halvening. I can't imagine trying to trade in this fucking environment.
Sheeeeeit. HODL.
Gawd, bob. You are so full of drama. This is hardly even close to the end of the world or even out of the realm of reasonable BTC market performance expectations, especially given our October 25th increase of 42% in 12 hours. Bring us back to $7,300, so fucking what? Maybe it will happen, and maybe not. I otherwise agree with your HODL suggestion, but there could also be reasons to buy a bit more or even to plan to buy a bit more at certain possible price points, in order to possible make some lemonade out of this kind of lemon situation. AmiNOTrite? |
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The year is 2021, it’s November & the cold, dark nights are starting to close in & 1 BTC is $154,000. Most of the WO’s have cashed in a significant % of their BTC. It’s been a crazy roller coaster since the end of 2020. Boblawblaw is chilling on his ranch, wiping his ass with $100 bills. micgoossens married cryptoqueeen in the Maldives, he owns 50 Michelin Star Restaurants across the world. JJG regularly drives his Lambo around LA, banging chicks & doing blow. V8 lives in a $12,000,000 countryside estate. ...................... Fill in the rest I hate to be a party poop or to throw any monkey wrenches in your scenario, but even at a hypothetical $154k, I anticipate that my personal wealth would still mostly be in BTC (like in the supra 90% arena... I am talking about the portion of my wealth that is already dedicated to BTC.... that portion would not really convert out of BTC too much, even though I would be selling BTC all the way up the ladder at about 1% for every 10% BTC price rise), and even if the BTC price were to shoot straight up to $154k, which would be the most blow-off-top kind of scenarios to justify selling larger portions of BTC, my current anticipated system still shows that I would have only sold less than 10% of my BTC stash. So, in essence LFC, I am taking issue with the portion of your post that I have bolded above: "Most of the WO’s have cashed in a significant % of their BTC" Many folks here likely realize that around early to mid 2017, I had already transitioned my BTC selling/hodling system in such a way that I really cannot justify selling large amounts of BTC on the way up. Yeah, of course, I systematically sell BTC all the way up, but even those relatively small percentages of selling of BTC seems to generate way the hell more fiat than I really want to deal with or that I want to liquidate or diversify into other investments or whatever. Surely, I could make an exception to my already established BTC selling plan, especially if we were to experience a blow off top (which largely would mean going straight up from here in less than 6 months), but dragging out BTC price rises of 18x from current BTC price to $154k by the end of 2021 surely seems like a mild blow off top in the whole scheme of things, and in that regard, I see no real reason to change my system in any kind of playing BIGGER kind of way because it seems to me that under such a 18x price rise from here, I would have plenty of money under such a scenario, and of course, selling large portions of BTC kind of assumes some justification to NOT lose significant wealth or an ability to either buy back BTC lower or even a need to obtain some additional fiat liquidity in order to transition to a more baller kind of lifestyle. Seems to me that merely staying with my current system and anticipation of incrementalism, I would be able to engage in those kinds of more baller activities that you mentioned without really deviating from my already planned system, even though never say never because there could be some desire (possibly) for me to want to diversify out of BTC a little bit more for some currently unknown reason upon achieving another 18x price appreciation from here. I surely don't presume to know all of the various scenarios, including if there were some kind of reason to add yacht or personal private jet in the mix, then of course, a few more BTC would need to be liquidated to employ such a supplementary / enhanced baller scenario. But, overall you are correct that $154k would be a nice little BTC price bump, even though in some sense, such 18x price bump from here and in around 24 months-ish (to late 2021), seems pretty damned modest and reasonable considering the historical levels of BTC's price bumps and even assuming that future BTC price bumps are going to become somewhat more modest than they have been in the past. For example, consider our most recent price bump from late 2015 to late 2017. I consider that to have been about a 78x price bump, and others consider it to have been higher than that (more than 100x if you calculate from the low of $158, rather than from what I would have considered to have been a more reasonable $250-ish base). Anyhow, even considering the 78x of that price bump as being a reasonable approximation, a projection of 18x for our next possible price bump seems to be more than within a realm of reasonable bullish exuberance. |
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$107M of cryptocurrencies on the above addresses, some more on Binance, some more elsewhere probably, fiat money who knows where. If it's FSB which has got the money now, it's as good as lost.
Party pooper.  You are trying to snuff out all hope? By the way, I had a decent amount of funds on WEX, and yeah of course, I regret it in retrospect, and for the past year or so, I have calculated less than a 1% probability of getting any of that back, yet for me, it is nice to see that there are various efforts going on behind the scenes that could result in some kind of quasi-justice for users (very low probability of course, but still a non-zero calculation, no?). You know that frequently, government agencies try to act like they are engaging in their various kinds of seemingly draconian measures in the interest of the public, and I suppose that they could end up categorizing both the administrators of BTC-e and WEX and the users as criminals, but that seems like real summary lack of due process bullshit to me, and of course any USA federal agencies would have duties to justify their actions regarding what they do and why they are doing it regarding any BTC-e/WEX proceeds that they might end up confiscating. Yes, I am aware that the Silk Road proceeds that were confiscated in 2013/2014 were not handled with any kind of consideration that users might have deserved any kind of distribution, and many of those proceeds that were confiscated were auctioned off, as far as I can recall, in 2014 and 2015, so in that regard, users of Silk Road were summarily considered as undeserving of return of their funds (kind of considered as criminals without any due process.. so kind of a bullshit conclusion that might not have really been that easy to justify if really put to scrutiny). So, sure, I can recognize that Federal agencies might end up coming to similar summary and lacking of due process conclusions regarding the arguable funds of any users of BTC-e and WEX. |
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Wondering if there is a new "methodology" to determine new Merit Source allocation (some kind of bakward looking average), and consequently determine if a Merit Source is still a valid one (and hence if new are needed), or it was just a "reaction" to what apparently was an extemporaneous "imbalance".
The PM had the word "automatically" in it, whatever that means. It could be an automatic scheduled process, or perhaps more likely it's an automatic adjustment that he can run manually once every few months. The adjustment seems to target a certain value, which appears to be 20k-22k total source merits. Inactive sources are removed, and the remaining ones get an adjustment based proportionally on how many sMerits they sent in the recent months. The bottom line is - send all your sMerits out every month. That has always been the goal but now there is an added incentive (or disincentive if you're sick of sourcing). I understood the concept of "automatically" as a one-time running of an algorithm that theymos had created (or he could have had someone else create it). Whether theymos chooses to systematically run that same algorithm or a some similar algorithm in the future would be completely discretionary on his part. To me, theymos seems to be a kind of "wait and see" kind of guy who would not necessarily want to lock himself into running something so disruptive as this on a regular basis (or in a Turing complete kind of way... hahahha... get rid of all the humans, even himself), and for me, the use of the term "automatically" does not imply with any kind of conviction that theymos is planning to run that same algorithm beyond this one time adjustment that he had decided was reasonable/prudent to run at this particular time. |
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Would it be helpful to show both the application date and the approve date (if you know that information) for those members who were approved? I'm thinking that it could provide some meaningful information for future merit source applicants to see that there is a decent amount of variation in how long applicants might have to wait before getting approval, and maybe even might inform future MS applicants regarding what kinds of things to do (or not do) while a MS application is pending.
It seems that the applications are approved in batches when theymos has time to review them. Last big change was in January IIRC. Based on some wording in the recent e-mail to merit sorcerers we can probably expect another review in about six months or so. I read everywhere about many active and committed sources asking for more sMerits allowance, while many other sources were "dormant" and not giving merits away, of feeling that as a chore. Probably Theymos wanted to fix that. Wondering if there is a new "methodology" to determine new Merit Source allocation (some kind of bakward looking average), and consequently determine if a Merit Source is still a valid one (and hence if new are needed), or it was just a "reaction" to what apparently was an extemporaneous "imbalance". Frequently, theymos comes up with quasi-genius solutions, and surely no solution is perfect, and even this whole merit system could be criticized for being more proof of stake rather than proof of work, and other criticisms of centralizing too much trust into few individuals... hahahahaha Anywhoo..... theymos's announcement from yesterday was likely a surprise for many members, but yeah, if they had not been giving out many merits for the past 6 months, and could NOT at least average the dishing out of a paltry 10 merits per month, they were removed as a merit source, and in that regard, theymos employed a largely objective algorithm to remove those who were not playing game with this merit system. In that regard, actions speak louder than words, and even some members who had been assigned as merit sources might not have been so bothered by their assignment as a merit source as to ask for their removal, but their non-use ended up speaking for around 30 of them. Of course, not every member is good at appreciating the contributions of other members by spending time to give merits, but that does not make them either a bad member or even a non-contributory member. I won't name any names, but there are some members who are awesome contributors to the forum, but they might not be very good at giving merits and they also might get shit on a lot from other members, but the forum would not even be close to what it is today, with the many quality contributors and even quality incentives to post good content without some of the contributions of some members who kind of suck as a merit source. Of course, we are never really going to get rid of troll shills, but some members are very helpful at identifying, or flagging troll/shills in order that more innocent members might take those members with a grain of salt. At the same time, there are some members who might be nice and innocent and even real good people who are just looking to be scammed. For some reason they cannot help themselves, and there is ONLY so much that any forum can do in order to protect those kinds of members from theirselves. In other words, some members have to learn by getting scammed, and even some of those members might not ever learned and keep getting into scam after scam after scam. It takes all kinds of peeps to make the world go round, and surely it would be boring if the world did not have a variety of intelligence, strategies and experiments, and surely the free markets would not function as well either if everyone had the same opinions about how to value assets and/or strategies in regards to profiting from the present/future value of such assets (whether we are referring to bitcoin, crypto assets or even non-crypto assets, and even the errors that people might make in assessing and acting on their own personal financial/psychological situation(s)). |
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List updated, 6 new confirmed Merit sources, 7 more to go.
Please post or PM. When all are noted I'll lock this topic.
Congrats to all of you!!
Would it be helpful to show both the application date and the approve date (if you know that information) for those members who were approved? I'm thinking that it could provide some meaningful information for future merit source applicants to see that there is a decent amount of variation in how long applicants might have to wait before getting approval, and maybe even might inform future MS applicants regarding what kinds of things to do (or not do) while a MS application is pending. By the way, didn't I see that you, iasenko, are not yet a merit source? You should probably apply, since you have been very good at providing good information to the forum and also filtering through information in order to help others to discern the difference between good and bad posts, so might as well add yourself to the group of merit source applicants, if you have not already done so. Second by the way: It will be interesting to see if Coin-1 is able to identify which merit sources have been purged from such merit source status in his thread: [TOP-200] The most generous users giving merits. I would imagine that he follows threads like this one for clues regarding which members have become merit sources. |
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The conversations in the Telegram group WEX Recovery, also the further group of the initiative and own investigations. The wallets listed above have been known for a long time and had shown exact the values listed from the WEX Monitor bot (which is no longer working because it got blocked by Telegram for unknown reasons). Ok thanks for sharing that information here. I don't currently have a membership to telegram. Surely it would be nice if some of the coins were recovered, and I know that the various principles had been put in bad positions, including pursuit by various legal authorities, whether those pursuits were valid or not is another question and surely it is NOT fair if customers are not able to recover decent amounts of the funds, if such funds are available or found, and yeah it looks like the verified wallets that are being monitored would have only been a fraction of the total amount of coins that would have been under the control of various BTC-e or WEX principles. And, I suppose it is one thing if they lose access to the funds (such as losing the keys) or if they were to be able to control the keys and maybe one or more of the principles is able to run off with the keys, and it is difficult to know when some of the principles might be getting put through difficult situations or even if there is some lack of clarity who has the keys to various wallets. |
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This is a list of the known WEX wallets and it's actual balances: | Currency | Address | Balance | Value | | Bitcoin | 1LfV1tSt3KNyHpFJnAzrqsLFdeD2EvU1MK | 10,000.00007089 BTC | 85,902,912 USD | | Litecoin | LeL2tHRhthknc3AxXAQ7U1yTuQYLqCu8vf | 175,001.04641795 LTC | 9,479,270 USD | | Ethereum | 0x95cDdecd01856aA896426bd1ee021D87F3A5c199 | 26000.15883 ETH | 4,760,889 USD | | Ethereum | 0xa32e317F86bA61e87083e3e39BeBBa3837697678 | 30000.01559 ETH | 5,493,302 USD | | DASH | Xs16SXtjBGAVGnTRTXr5qyXj4WNqfZ94Ut | 6,876.703 DASH | 473,983 USD | | Peercoin | PR5KAV1aTkHuscQ6FmdGEM7abGwfAAWwr5 | 1,786,301.067 PPC | 965,091 USD | | Total value | | | 107,075,447 USD |
These wallets have been listed by the Telegram bot "Wex Monitor Bot" @wexmonbot, which is no longer working. Of cause one should have been wondering all the time how it can be, that an anonymous person called "Alexey B." could get access to the wallets and control the whole platform in this way. Any founder or owner of a crypto platform would handle over the whole funds to an anonymous person he has never seen in real live before!? Reading through the conversations the conclusion was, that this Alexey B. was/is all the time the real owner of the wallets and the platform. The CEOs evidently were/are just the team for the business administration, but also the recipients of any further profit. According to the latest news the "red admin" is not Alexey Belan, but Alexey Bilyuchenko (by the way indeed from his appearance very similar to Alexey Belan). According to further news and documents 100% shares of WEX as company and technical platform itself, including the future possible profit, were transferred from Dmitry Vasilyev to Dimitry Kavachenko, drawn up by the consulting company Enston Corporate Services Pte Ltd in Singapore. The further consulting company ROYCE TRADE s.r.o. in Prague was then involved by the lawyer of WEX, Viktor Stepanov, for the further consulting of the remaining WEX team. What the investigators and reporters still didn't consider is the fact, that the known cold wallets of WEX are still untouched since months. It is a fact, that all together around 100 million USD are still available at the moment, which depends from the fluctuation of the crypto-chats of cause, independent from the other fact, that the wallets seem to be under control of Alexey Bilyuchenko and Konstantin Malofeev, the co-founder of WEX. The 8 million USD estimated by the initiative group "WEX SCAM" needed for the payout of the members are peanuts compared with the other several hundred million USD. The situation could also be a conflict between Konstantin Malofeev and Dimitry Kavachenko. According to the latest BBC-article Bitcoins in the "FSB fund": how $ 450 million disappeared from Wex crypto exchange (Google-Translate) the Russian FSB shall be involved in the whole case. According to the article the FSB or corrupt members of the FSB shall have seized the cold wallets in form of hardly encrypted flash drives. Further Anton Nemkin, a previous FSB-agent, evidently wanted to use the WEX funds for a new crypto platform "Vladex". The WEX funds with a value of around 350 million USD had evidently been transferred by the red admin to the wallets of the FSB-agents or those, who pretended to be agents. Apart from this the article doesn't write about the current personal and legal situation of Alexey Bilyuchenko, only that he shall be protected as witness in the criminal proceedings (what also could mean a kind of protection in form of protective custody). Further no word about the remaining funds on the WEX wallets in the height of 107 million USD as calculated above, which would be enough to pay out most likely all members! So if they used the ~ 350 million USD for whatever and this was only the profit they made, there wouldn't be to complain about criminal activity. As Anton Nemkin seems to be a person with a good reputation, appearing in public together with Sergey Glazyev, a former consultant of Vladimir Putin, presenting the concept of the new platform Vladex, one has to wounder why the whole world is making investigations and criminal proceedings because of the transferred funds - they should focus on the remaining blocked funds with a value around 100 million USD! Even as the whole world was hunting Dmitry Vasilyev at first: Even if he transferred his profit or a part of it out of the WEX funds, might be in fiat currency, there's no criminal activity to complain about. It seems to be an undisputed fact now, that the cold wallets are under control of the admin Alexey Bilyuchenko and/or Konstantin Malofeev. A criminal act is of cause the blocking of the remaining funds and the closure of the trading platform without possibility of the withdrawals by the members! What is your source for this information Trade Runner? |
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[edited out]
I appreciate your opinion. I first got into Bitcoin in July 2017, was very lucky that year obviously. But since February 2018 I am more into technical analysis and trading. What I saw in 2018 was mostly the price of Bitcoin dictated by trading tools and not much else. But well of course nothing is written in the stone. I am just very confident about this 12.4k price that we need to break. I am curious to see how it unfolds. Of course, part of the purpose of this forum and this thread is to bat around ideas related to bitcoin, and surely whether to trade or how to trade or strategies to increase your wealth seem quite relevant discussion points. Also, you likely realize that even though we might not really know the trend until looking at the price movements retrospectively, but any of us would have been quite profitable to have been a buyer and accumulator in 2017 and would have had much better odds to short or to sell in 2018, although any of us could have gotten caught on the wrong side of any trade because even in early February 2018, bitcoin had already corrected all the way down to $6k from its $19,666 December 2017 highpoint. In the end, also there might not be as much of a certainty to BTC price direction as there is seemingly more certainty that bitcoin is going to continue to be volatile, just as it has been volatile for its whole life. So, any way to either take advantage of price volatility or at least to have strategies that provide some practices that provide some price volatility insurance, can be very good practices in bitcoin, even though in the very longer term, if BTC investors are able to hold onto their investments for 3.5 years or longer, then those have also ended up being decently profitable strategies, and even more profitable if there is a longer timeline in which BTC investors are ready, willing and able to hold onto their BTC. Regarding your confidence about some kind of resistance at 12.4k, maybe you are right, but surely I personally am taking such number with a decently sized grain of salt regarding the extent to which such a number is significant of anything. We will see. We will see. At least we can agree on that part. The wait and see part. Continue to talk smack, too,... no problema. |
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Frankly it is not looking good at the moment, I would even say it's time to sell, and buy back below 8k. I am pretty sure we are heading towards 7k-ish but hopefully we never go back below 6.4k. If we go back below 6.4 there will be a lot of blood (not like the movie). Then in the middle term there should be a bounce back above 10k (I hope) but breaking above 11k and most importantly above 12.4k will be very tough. Just hoping the halving will make things move to our advantage, but the technical analysis is looking very ugly in the short term  You make our current situation sound so dire, Bossian. Do you remember that on October 25, we had 42% in 12 hours from $7,300 to $10,300, and if we get back to $7,300 over the following month or so (which would bring us to November 25), do you think that we are worse off merely because we went back to the starting point of what had happened in 12 hours? Well, we gotta get back to $7,300 first, I suppose, but I doubt that the situation is as dire as you are making it out to be, even if we were to get below $6,400. What's so special about $6,400? Remember from April 1, to June 27, we went from $4,200 to $13,880? $6,400 does not even bring us back down to $4,200, but we would have to get down to $6,400 first, and we seem quite a ways off from $6,400, but hey, things happen fast in bitcoinlandia, so I would be prepared to buy, instead of thinking about selling and then end up being wrong in the even that BTC prices were to stop going down... .and surely we see those kinds of things happening in bitcoinlandia. We have jonoiv still waiting for sub $6k for more than a 6 months, and we have some others who are still hoping for sub $3k, which yeah, they might get lucky, but I would rather be buying on the way down rather than taking some actions (such as selling now) and then regret it later. I was looking closely yesterday at the technical analysis and it's clear the major support is around 6.4k, that's why this price is scary (for me, I may be wrong), on the other hand the price of 12.4k is very exciting. Of course we can go back above 10k, I hope so. Frankly, I bought at the worst moment (9.3k), if we go close to 10k I will sell. Because right now I am not confident. BUT after selling everything I got at 10k I will wait for 12.4k. If we pass that price then I buy again even more (won't care about the small lack or earning between 10k and 12.4k because it won't matter much. I will feel much better and safer in selling at 10k and then wait, because above 12.4k it's basically free money (strong resistance). If we pass 12.4k then the long term trend is looking crazy good. My personal opinion of course best of luck to us. If that system works for you, then so be it. I cannot be a hater, but seems like you are engaging in a lot of reliance on what is supposedly in the charts and your interpretation of that, and again, if you have gotten both good at it, and also able to employ systems in which you profit from either price direction, then you are likely in a good place, yet to me, it seems that you are kind of relying on price movements in one direction or another in the short term and historically, we have seen so many times that a variety of purported experts get the short term wrong - that's why I mentioned those two recent upwards explosive spurts. Sure it is possible that anything can happen, but betting on down in what appears to be a bull market seems quite risky. Yeah, I know there are several folks that are asserting that we are currently NOT in a bull market, but seems like wishful thinking to me. Even bitcoin does not seem to change back and forth from bear to bull to bear to bull... so if you are engaged in defining bear and bull in terms of short swings, I have difficulties relating, especially when it seems that our that there are pretty decent odds that our early 2019 price move from $4,200 to $13,880 had demonstrated that we had gotten out of our 2018 bear market. Of course, we do not know for sure until after the fact, but if you are trying to predict exactly the correction level in a bull market versus trying to assert that we are in a bear market, and either theory seems filled with lots of risk. Also, I don't play around with BIG plays like you, but buying at $9,300 might not be so bad if you had sold somewhere in the supra $11k or even higher, but yeah I suppose that there are a lot of scenarios that buying at $9,300 might not seem to be too good, unless you are just getting into bitcoin. If you are just getting into bitcoin then buying at $9,300 might not be bad at all. Just keep buying, and accumulating. Selling above $10k seems quite risky, but then you get into the same issues about trying to figure out what is happening, because there are scenarios in which BTC prices might shoot the fuck past $13,880 and go into the sub $19k arena before correcting all the way back down to $10k, but that does not seem to be a scenario that your system anticipates very well... but surely such a price performance or some other weird and unexpected price movement could happen... bitcoin is known for such weird price movements, and I doubt that it is going to stop with the weird price movements any time soon, at least maybe not until BTC prices are well in the area of gold market cap or even quite higher before the manipulation forces will become more debilitated in their abilities to fuck with bitcoin's volatility. |
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Frankly it is not looking good at the moment, I would even say it's time to sell, and buy back below 8k. I am pretty sure we are heading towards 7k-ish but hopefully we never go back below 6.4k. If we go back below 6.4 there will be a lot of blood (not like the movie). Then in the middle term there should be a bounce back above 10k (I hope) but breaking above 11k and most importantly above 12.4k will be very tough. Just hoping the halving will make things move to our advantage, but the technical analysis is looking very ugly in the short term You make our current situation sound so dire, Bossian. Do you remember that on October 25, we had 42% in 12 hours from $7,300 to $10,300, and if we get back to $7,300 over the following month or so (which would bring us to November 25), do you think that we are worse off merely because we went back to the starting point of what had happened in 12 hours? Well, we gotta get back to $7,300 first, I suppose, but I doubt that the situation is as dire as you are making it out to be, even if we were to get below $6,400. What's so special about $6,400? Remember from April 1, to June 27, we went from $4,200 to $13,880? $6,400 does not even bring us back down to $4,200, but we would have to get down to $6,400 first, and we seem quite a ways off from $6,400, but hey, things happen fast in bitcoinlandia, so I would be prepared to buy, instead of thinking about selling and then end up being wrong in the even that BTC prices were to stop going down... .and surely we see those kinds of things happening in bitcoinlandia. We have jonoiv still waiting for sub $6k for more than a 6 months, and we have some others who are still hoping for sub $3k, which yeah, they might get lucky, but I would rather be buying on the way down rather than taking some actions (such as selling now) and then regret it later. |
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Sounds to me that you are looking to lose money, get scammed or to gamble for the mere sake of it.
When members are repeatedly suggesting that you do some research, they are trying to be nice to you, which really means that you need to look around more and maybe even practice more, which also might mean to look more closely at yourself too, including how you are playing your own finances as well as how much of yourself you are planning to invest into something that you admittedly do not know but seemed rush to learn the nuts and bolts.
Many times when guys (and perhaps a gal or two) are able to make decent money in trading BTC (and the use of other financial instruments), they might suggest to you that it is easy, but the good ones will have spent a considerable amount of time practicing such trade (hopefully with low amounts) and building their own expertise, which would then involve adding more sophisticated and complicated financial instruments after having had really gotten used to the more simple instruments.
You usually will not make more money by merely employing more complicated trading instruments, unless you already know the simple instruments well and really study and practice on a personal level with those more complicated instruments (and you likely do not need to be an expert when you start because you can learn as you go, with small amounts), because the more complicated the instrument are designed to be in favor of the house, and you have to know the instrument so well that you can overcome the ways that the instruments are designed to be in favor of the house in order to be able to make money or to make a killing from such instrument(s).
By the way, I am continuously surprised regarding how many folks (members) that I run into in this space who seem to be so unsatisfied with the simple investing methods with BTC that is likely going to make a lot of people a lot of money, just as it has in the past, but there are so many people who want to accelerate such money making process by 10x or more and therefore end up missing up on the considerable great opportunities that are available with relatively straight forward BTC investing strategies involving, buying, accumulating and holding.... and if you get the BTC part down (without getting sucked into get rich quick schemes), then maybe you can take 10% of that value and start to play with other more complicated financial instruments that involve hedges: such as leverage, margins, options and/or futures.. which also can sound like investing in an alt when BTC is risky enough and already with a lot of upside potential.
Hello thank you very much for your long reply Sir. I don't want to risk my money that's why I want to apply this strategy. He says it's a totally safe strategy, it's an arbitrage. I want to do this arbitrage but he doesn't say on which platform we can do it. I can't trade on Bakkt and nobody can trade on it here. It's very frustrating to tell people they can do a big arbitrage and then to not tell where they can do it. So the idea is to profit from this situation selling a future, while at the same time buying a bitcoin on the spot market, to be held it until future expiry.
In this way at the expiry you will have a bitcoin to be sold to your conterpart. Having bought the bitcoin at a lower price, you are actualy locking in the price difference you executed your trades.
This is a market neutral strategy: you are not exposed to market risks, bitcoin can go up to 30,000 USD or crash to 1,000 SUD and your profit will stay the same, as you are buying and selling a bitcoin at the same time.
I agree that if someone is saying that some arbitrage trade can be done, and if there is instant profits then it should be clarified how that can be accomplished because sometimes arbitrage opportunities might look easy in theory but much more difficult to carry out in practice I hate to quote myself, but Hueristic's attempt to explain to you, crazy-joe, by use of a dictionary definition, caused me to look at the portion of fillippone's response that you quoted. The answer is right in the quote. He is saying that there is a price difference in one location (on the future's market) and the spot price, which means immediate profits if you have money and ability to simultaneously buy at both locations. That means that you need an account to be able to do both at once and find some kind of advantage in such a direct and immediate profit(s). Hey, I used to play around with arbitrage opportunities, and I would be able to do it once or twice, and still feel comfortable, but if I kept trying to make the same arbitrage profitable trade, one of my accounts would get over balanced with either too much fiat or too much BTC. Yes, I was profitable, but my over balance in one direction or another would make me feel that it was not worth the profits that I was making, and there tended to be a reason that I could engage in such immediate profits, and that was because one of the trades was more liquid than the other and that was the reason that the price was so different that I could recognize an ability to immediately profit in place in which I already had the ability to do so. So, likely I am getting back to just agreeing with myself and my initial response to you, which was that if you don't know what the fuck fillippone is talking about or you cannot recognize what he is saying, then you do not have enough experience or even know how to access the places for immediate profits. You don't get to such a place for immediate profits or being able to weigh even if it is worth it for you to exercise such immediate profits unless you get yourself into various places in which you can engage in such trades, understand the basics of tradings and employing the various tools of trading. You know the expression that defines luck as preparation meeting opportunity? Well, preparation involves doing your own research and even setting up some systems in your own way of doing things that allows you to take advantage of the various opportunities, and surely with arbitrage opportunities, if they are real easy, they will not tend to last very long, so you already need to be in place, if you were to engage in such. In other words, arbitrage opportunities move, but someone who is in the game and has prepared, will be able to take advantage of such opportunities, if that is what floats his/her boat. Does not currently float my boat, because I find myself already rich and getting richer just from holding BTC and NOT playing around with it... so even arbitrage opportunities can include both risks and costs, including time spent and accounting tricks that might not be worth it once you really weigh the whole situation by getting yourself into positions to understand. TLDR: DYOR, YMMV, BTFD, HODL craefully, etc - hahahahaha. |
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Yeah, yeah know I was thinking the same exact thing but then I remembered bitcoin never does what I think it will do so maybe it will just explode or something! You are being too rough on your own genius, Hueristic. Of course, if you were to only predict one price direction, such as up, then you would have a lot higher chances of being wrong. But, I was thinking that BTC prices could go up, but on the other hand they could go sideways or down, in the event that they do not go up. but in the event that they do not go either sideways or down, then surely the odds are considerably high that they must go up. Surely any of us is correct in our BTC price predictions, so long as we make sure that we cover all possible BTC price directions. But then are we saying anything? |
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I was going by memory. About a week ago (or maybe it was only a few days ago), I had clicked on the merit sources link ( on the merit stats page), and I had seen that there were about 128 merit sources. There might have even been 130 merit sources, at one point, 4 or 5 months ago, too. I also recall in the very beginning there were something like 35 merit sources, then there was a doubling into the 60s, and so that number does NOT stay the same, even though it seemed to had been pretty steady in the 120s for most of this (2019) calendar year. But, yeah, of course, now we see 98 merit sources. How do you know if you got the bump?
This particular instance was the receipt of a PM from theymos, and also if you click on your merit sending page (after receiving that PM from theymos), you would have seen that the quantity of your smerits had changed. Actually, whenever theymos resets your smerit allocation amount, you get a reissuance of the total amount of smerits for the month, so it wipes out your previous smerit balance. Let's say for example that you had a smerit allocation of 100 per month. Choosing this amount because it is easier to see the math, and you had been pretty diligent about spending your about 3.3 smerits per day, so in the beginning of today, you had 3 smerits in your account that you were able to spend, but you received a pm from theymos that said that he had increased your allocation, and so when you log in, you see that you have 175 smerits to send, so the 3 smerits that you would have had got wiped off of your account, and instead of having an average of 3.3 smerits per day, you can average sending 5.83 smerits per day. Of course, if you spend all of your 175 smerits in 10 days, then you will have to wait 20 days to get any reissuance smerits, because smerits are reissued 30 days from when you spend them, so if you spend them all like a drunken sailor, then you are going to have gaps of an empty smerit bank. |
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Theymos boosted my merit power source by %175 I wish he boosted the price of btc by %175 too. Me too! I’ll be looking for some impressive posting to spray my big load over boys. Tired now though, going to bed. #nohomo For some reason, I am feeling tired today, too. So many different things happening, even though the bitcoin price has been a little boring in the last few days, and yeah boring is if the BTC price is trending down or flat rather than up. So, at least, we have a little time for resting, if the BTC price is not doing too much. Regarding recent source merit jugglings, I did find it a little strange that more or less theymos has effectuated a sweeping increase of the issuance of source merits that is largely based on averaging how much source merits have been using their smerit supply in the past six months. Use it or lose it potential in the way that the change was decided, which also resulted in a strange statistical outcome of a reduction of the number of merit sources from 128 to 98 (not withstanding at least one new merit source, congrats to fillippone) and also a bit of a reduction in the total monthly smerits from a bit under 30k per month to a bit over 20k per month. There still may be some tweaking going on, perhaps? You can see the number of source merits and quantity of monthly smerits here. As long as I see from this thread: (LIST)Open Merit Source Applications,waiting list.At least three new MS were named today. Other might reveal themselves later on. Oh? I had not seen that thread. Thanks for the link. I suppose it goes to show that theymos might have some information that he uses to decide whether to approve a MS application, and such information is not really publicly known. In other words, sometimes there are applications pending for members who some of us might have already considered to have been good potential merit sources, but for whatever reason theymos has not appointed them as such. Once you are a merit source, as long as you are responsible with your spending of smerits, I would expect that theymos would keep in you such position, and maybe even increase your allotment from time to time, as today's surprise tweaking shows. I guess on the other hand, other things could come up in life, and not allow for active forum participation, so in that regard, there can be some burdens in spending much of your allocated smerits on a monthly basis (or really a rolling basis, as the smerits are coming in). Personally, I just keep track in order that I can attempt to spread out my spending of smerits throughout the month, but even my system has a decent amount of irrationality in spending or even spontaneousness, but the spreading out seems to work better for me, but if there are times in which I am not active, then the allocation smerit reserves might cause a bit of a feeling of stress, too, - to feel a need to spend them in an reasonably expedited timeframe. |
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