Is this a straw man?


Why you upset with peeps suggesting HODL?





You know what corn is for better than anyone else?

I thought that one of the things about corn is that you can decide however, you like, and there is no one stop shopping.  Everyone can decide for him/her/itself whether or not to use his/her/its corn.



Let's clone nutildah and make this world a better place.   


 



Even drunks can decide what to do with their corn (or not), too, right?

Sometimes we need some drunks in order to teach them a lesson about not getting drunk too much, but sometimes with any addiction, the drunk does not even actually realize how much daño s/he/it is causing to him/her/itself... so continues to repeat the self-afflicting behaviors.

I think that you should get out, and start living.  That is a great idea.  Each of us only has one life, and of course, bitcoin could die too... in a kind of mining death spiral.  That could actually happen.   Write back and let us know how much fun that you had in the coming year or two.  Taaaa taaaa....

I largely agree with, especially when referring to exorbitant consumer debt rates that individuals are dumb enough to get into.

On the other hand, aren't the banks (and Govts) trying to make debt "great again"?   If you can get close to the issuance of the debt, then you can get negative rates... or damned close to it, which seems to encourage irresponsible behaviors on the institutional level that is motivated by rational thinking based on low interest (or negative) rates that incentivize borrowing the fuck out of everything because you know that you have to pay back way less tomorrow than you had borrowed today.... Therefore, as a BIGGER institution, I am going to play that kind of debt and even perhaps act irresponsible (even though on an individual level, that kind of behavior - especially when dealing with consumption rather than investment is not likely to play out too well).

I thought that CME allowed for naked short sales, but BAKKT had to use actual bitcoin collateral/settlement?

Of course, any large institution is likely going to attempt to play around with rehypothecation (aka fractional reserves), but officially BAKKT is supposed to have BTC to cover all claims and claims are covered at the end of each contract, too (which they describe as daily settled - which I am presuming to mean that they have the BTC at the end of each day.  Surely, I am no accounting expert).

In actual nature, I have never seen or heard about an actual tail wagging a dog; however, in theory, I have heard a lot of theories that would require tails to wag dogs, because some people either believe that the world works like that or they have not sufficiently thought through their own speculation requirements.


Go figure?

Nice.  I watched it (30 minutes), and I agree that Simon Dixon is both a bitcoin bullish kind of guy, and he is also quite knowledgeable about how money works.

Look who got up on the wrong side of the bed.

 



Between reading V8's post and your post, fillippone, I found a current status image of V8, which I add here for your ease of reference.



In other words, Pro tip:  Never take a temperature tantrum too seriously.

 


I am so embarrassed to have been spotted.  Might be my turn to throw a TT.   

I find troubles in your framing of three tops and even a descending tops.  Yeah of course, you are accurate in a sense, but your framing seems to want to imply the outcome rather than really accounting for more zoomed out and better framework.

The reality of the matter is that you are describing three blow off tops rather than hard resistance.

Surely, I will concede that I did not believe $19,666 to have been a blow off top because I thought that there was still plenty of ability to go up; however, retrospective (passage of time) assessment does allow more ability to appreciate $19,666 as a blow off top.   In other words, that is not the resistance that you are describing it to be.   What the fuck do you expect?  The BTC  price to just keep going up forever?  At some point we had to run out of buying power and support.   Think about the context, Majormax.  We had about a one year decline from late 2013 to 2014 and then another near year of being largely stuck at such bottom before recovery started in late 2015.  Furthermore, we really could not meaningfully appreciate such recovery until about mid-2016, and we did not reach previous ATH until early 2017, which was more than 3 years after our previous ATH.  

So really we should recognize that the bull run that started in late 2015 started out very gradually and got stuck a few times throughout its 2 year course, and had a gradual increasing slope that really started to crescendo in the last few months from August to December 2017.  By the time that we got to August 2017, hopium was building in the bitcoin air, and the resolution of the various bitcoin hardfork challenges within the bitcoin community in favor of bitcoin, rather than the challengers seemed to have helped push some of the euphoria - along with the money coming into the various scam projects in the space that was largely just riding on the coattails of bitcoin's successful ability to stave off various kinds of centralization and integrity of the immutable vision attacks.  

So fuck that, Majormax.  I would not be ascribing failure to break resistance to the $19,666 top, just as it is almost equally misguided to attempt to describe going above $13,880, as if it were some kind of major failure event... What the fuck, Majormax?  Again, do I need to describe bitcoin price history to you?  We both have the charts in front of us.

After December 2017, we had a major ass BTC price correction, and none of us really knew how far down the BTC price correction was going to go.  The immediate correction down to $6k in February 2018 and the continued failed attempts to go significantly below $6k between February 2018 and November 2018, contributed to greater confidence (subsequently found out to be incorrect) that $6k was going to be the bottom for the correction, so yeah its November/December breach down to $3,122 caused a decent amount of pessimism, and nearly as great of a surprise came the April-June 2019 recovery from $4,200 to $13,880.  

The three month recovery was a bit much too.. which should reasonably imply unsustainability.  So you have two price bouts of excited irrational exuberance that you are latching onto in order to attempt to make your case, Majormax.. but you are not done with your latching onto silly ass events to attempt to prove your bear case

Now, you are latching onto a price point of $10,313 that is reflected in a 42% price spurt in a 12 hour period (on October 25), and you are suggesting that to be a failure too.

It get's a lot more difficult to take you seriously, Majormax, when you are ascribing failure to bitcoin success events.  Yeah, the BTC price did not break through, but those three examples show bitcoin life rather than failure, and also likely signifies that folks better be holding onto their britches and holding onto their coins rather than getting shaken out by extreme price movements and even misreading bullish positive BTC price movements as if they were negative events.




We are not ignoring classical price chart signals for shits and giggles.  We are doing it because not only is bitcoin different, it is not yet mature, so attempting to assign too god damned much maturity onto bitcoin is going to cause you to get reckt when you are attempting to bet on downward when there remains so much ongoing upwards pressures on bitcoin, and we can never really be sure when the ongoing upwards BTC price pressures is going to result in an upwards explosion..  Sure such upwards BTC price explosion might not be sustainable, but it still tends to punish the fuck out of shorters, especially those playing around with margin, and also frequently causes ordinary "smarter than thou" traders to sell way too many BTC way too early and they end up waiting and waiting and waiting to buy back below their sell price that never ends up coming.


He is NOT correct.  He is failing and refusing to recognize the proper asset, and yeah, if he were referring to a shitcoin, then of course, Peter Schiff would be correct, but bitcoin is not a shitcoin, so he is mis-ascribing the wrong asset class to it... and therefore, he is applying the wrong chart analysis.  So who gives a fuck if Schiff would have been correct if he had gotten the asset class correct?  The point still remains that he is wrong as fuck to be applying the wrong chart to bitcoin, even if it would have been the right chart if he had picked another asset class.  So, saying Schiff is consistent, correct and blah blah blah so wonderful is almost as non-sensical to say that Roach is correct for selling all his coins in the $700 price range.  I am not sure which one is stupider?  Schiff for consistently never getting into bitcoin or roach for getting in and making some money and then continuing to hope that BTC goes down below $700 so he can buy back in?  They are both incredibly amazingly stupid fucks that relate to each other, but have slightly different bearish on bitcoin stories.  

I understand that your claim, Majormax, is that you do not trade in regard to your ongoing bearish propositions, and you are supposedly just attempting to "protect" BTC HODLers from becoming too optimistic, but you are also likely talking a lot of BTC HODLers out of their coins and convincing other would be bitcoin accumulators to wait for supposedly lower priced BTC that never ends up coming.

I guess I remain a bit befuddled by your ongoing and consistent overly proclamations of bearish BTC price scenarios, and if people do as you do rather than do as you say, wouldn't you be suggesting them to buy?  Or would you be suggesting that they wait?  Surely there are a lot of people who did not buy BTC years back and establish their BTC positions years back.  The vast majority of peeps did not buy BTC years back, and even folks like me who have decent BTC positions, still might consider from time to time to stack a few more sats with new money rather than money that is already in the system.  There are plenty of folks who have way the fuck fewer BTC than me, and therefore, they have to decide what to do.  I know that I am suggesting to just keep buying on a regular basis and buying on dips even if they believe that the price might go lower to regularly continue to buy BTC, otherwise they might unwittingly get left out at some point, and no one wants to get roached (except perhaps peeps like roach who already got roached and are just striving to justify their dumbass earlier behavior retrospectively).

Remember that bitcoin has been accused, accused and accused of being in a bubble, too.

Historically bitcoin's bubble has evolved like this:




What a fantasy that you have.  You are an ugly fuck.

Funny how much hopium is built into such a guy that has been pumping his bitcoin is going to zero nonsense since before I had even gotten into bitcoin.  He does say that he gets a decent amount of attention for his gold pumpening interactions with the bitcoin community.

Another funny thing is that he frequently says that he should have gotten into bitcoin at $10, when he first heard about it, while following up by saying that "now it is too late" blah blah blah.   He has been saying that a lot, and for some reason he seems to continue to fail/refuse to recognize the irony of such an ongoingly dumb statement.

Stop being ridiculous and an idiot.

Fact of the matter is that you are a whiner, and I am sorry that you are so god damned lamely emotional about ideas that are passed around on the interwebs, and you have to convert them into personal nonsense.   People do not attack me in real life, so why the fuck would I start experiencing it now, and you likely would not do it either, unless you are some kind of lame sociopath who cannot fit into normal interactions.

Would I call you a lame pussy in real life?  Probably not if I just met you, but if you kept whining on and on and on, like you do on the interwebs, most people would have to confront you in real life too about the need to grow some balls and to man ups, etc etc.


We are not in highschool dumb fuck.  


You are retarded, if you believe that is how the world works.  

By the way, my earlier comment that Micpeeps is referencing was a kind of joke, and seems like both you and him cannot recognize jokes or maybe neither of you understand what the fuck is up, and taking matters way too personally and way too seriously.  In other words, there should be no need for me to have to 'splain myself and/or to point out actual humor and lightheartedness of a joke, which makes the joke a bit less funny, after there is a need to attempt to explain it to someone who is taking a trivial matter as personal....
therefore, I have to include some laughs here, just so that we might get some humor out of this should have been unnecessary need for me to clarify dynamics of the interwebs.     ... but I feel like a psycho laughing here, so instead I will just have to roll my eyes, again.  


there now that I rolled my eyes, now I genuinely feel like laughing, and no longer feeling like a psycho for such conduct..        



Good point made by resident troll.   (Don't start believing that I like you.  You fucktwat).

Ok.  Thanks OROBTC for pointing out the post.  I found it.  Here is the link for easy future reference.

Usually it is better to provide the link to the post, rather than referring to its post number or its page number because post number and page number will change, and in this case, the post number has already changed to 507834, as I type, but if someone deletes some posts in front of that post, then its number will change again.


Ok.  No problem.  I had not read the article because I did not want to enter my e-mail, so I only saw the blurb that fillioppone seemingly had excerpted out of the article.



Sure, it can be informative to attempt to make historical comparisons, and maybe we also learn some history along the way, too.



I would phrase the proposition a bit differently, which is that Bitcoin is the only real and meaningful game in town.  All of the others are cheap and incomplete copycats, even when they are suggesting that they are doing something else or making some improvement to bitcoin, blah blah blah.

I largely agree that even if bitcoin is the best game in town, currently, we should not be such blind bitcoin maximalists as to either ignore everything else or to fail or refuse to hedge on some other coins or other projects in the event that something better might come along.  However, at the same time, there might be a decently large waste of brain power to be contemplating the possibility that something better might come to town when there is nothing meaningfully wrong with bitcoin that cannot be worked on etc etc.

Bitcoin is as about as perfect of a project as anyone could have imagined with incentives that are in place that cause motivations and incentives for peeps to build upon it.. to put efforts in place to freemarketly compete for it and within it... and for people to market it without getting paid and bitcoin not having any marketing team but not needing any marketing team because in the end a strong and scarce storage of value is likely going to gravitate value into it, whether we market it or not... or whether we work against it or not... Honey badger don't care.

Maybe you have heard about the theoretical suggestion that any coin to meaningfully compete against BTC and to truly take value from it in the long term (in terms of replacing it) should have something like a 10x improvement over BTC, so in other words, there may be some inferior technical aspects of bitcoin, but if the supposed improved technology that is meant to replace that inferior aspect of bitcoin is not at least 10x better, than they can fuck off or go kick rocks because no one is going to adopt that (at least no one smart and not in the long term), when the world already has bitcoin to do that function... one of the advantages of an incumbent that happens to have built in money that is built upon network effects, Schelling points and consensus.

I am not really sure about the meaning of this part of your post: 

>>>> (if BTC does represent a big paradigm change as the poster suggested re the Netherlands last page)<<<<<

What is going on regarding netherlands?


By the way, we already should recognize that BTC is a paradigm changer, but we cannot be sure whether the truth of BTC's paradigm changing reality is going to be reflected in BTC's price or play out in some other way, but its paradigm changing reality should be difficult to deny for anyone who is dealing with actual facts and logic rather than just making shit up (what some bitcoin naysayers, altcoin pumpers and no coiners tend to do when they are trying to dismiss or minimize the importance of bitcoin).

JayJuanGee when he saw Bob's play: "You cannot play that.  It's not even a word."

Bob's response:  "I can do whatever I want.  Especially, if it makes Rick less unhappy."

JayJuanGee: "ok." (keeps playing while grumbling mostly under his breath about how Bob is messing up the game)

xhomerx10:  Makes each of us a new hat, and doesn't say anything.

You just have to live until mid-May and then you will see and therefore know.    

Go LFC, go.


By the way, I am thinking that BTC's price in mid-May 2020 will be higher than it is today, which makes buying today a good investment, but I am not much more than 50% sure.  Maybe I am 55% sure.  I have a little more confidence that BTC prices will be higher than they are today in 3.5 years to 5 years.   I am NOT really able to predict too much beyond that, except on the positive side to say that we seem to have decently likely odds of experiencing various BTC price swings between now and 5 years from now that could range anywhere between $8,800 and $500k.  I am around 75% positive of that... maybe even a bit more confident, which is expressing certainty from me.

Buy, HODL and accumulate BTC, as much as your (this is not directed at just LFC - public thread, remember?) budget can tolerate without putting your ability to pay regular expenses in jeopardy... Play your ability to pay your regular expenses 6-18months into the future.. shorter periods if you are single and unobligated in terms of complexities and debt and longer if you have more responsibilities.

Make sure your finances are in order and then your psych is more likely to be in order (also not guaranteed (look at Bob, for example.... hahahahaaha) ).  You will thank me later (perhaps? (of course, I know that part is far from guaranteed) ).  

I don't know.

Seems to me that altcoins (aka shitcoins) have been getting too frothy, which we have to concede are attempting to latch their lil selfies onto whatever benefits that come through bitcoin, and accordingly, I can see ongoing froth that needs to get purged, especially when several of them seem to have little bounces that are higher than bitcoin.  In other words, there is some need to set straight some of the disillusionment that remains in that space.

In  the end, are they going to have another alt coin season and would such altcoin season, if it were to occur, out pace BTC in any kind of way.  Surely, seems unhealthy if such altcoin season appears to be coming before bitcoin, which seem to be part of what has been signaling to happen from time to time in recent time - which thereafter incentivizes some slapping down of the alts - and of course, bitcoin cannot completely escape from some of the effects of such slapping downs.

You seem to be misunderstanding the question of the poll, piebeyb.   

New ATH is merely getting above $19,666.  It is NOT very far out of reach, even though it could take a while to get there.

Another set of questions seems to be implied in your statement regarding both how high the ATH will subsequently go after going past $19,666, assuming that it does, and then also whether McAfee is going to have to eat his dick, which seem quite likely if we were to literally interpret both what he is predicting and the odds of actually reaching such target.

I just cannot HODL my lil selfie back.


Didn't we just have a 42% price rise in about 12 hours (of course, referring to events on October 25)?  Holy fucking shit!!!!!   Always wanting more and more and more.


This bitcoin thingie-ma-jiggie is doing just fine... this is fine.....this is fine..... this is fine....  




where's my lil doggie.....


















How come I feel like kicking some fatty in the ass?

why?

Why?

Surely, I recall some of the posts of Holliday, back in the day when he was positing in this thread.  

It appears that he has chosen to delete a lot of his old posts, and were it NOT for your quoting him, that post might have been lost into the ethers.   Those were exciting times that preceded my first BTC purchase in late November 2013.. and my even looking at forum posts in February 2014.  

There are quite a few old-timers who had made such choices to delete their old forum posts.  Not sure if we lose from such deletions, because these days, there seems to be so god-damned much that is captured into history.  Think of all of the folk-lore and songs from the past that never were recorded..... lost forever.




Gives me the impression that Holliday might no longer be with us in this physical world.

O.k.   Yes, I agree that seems like a reasonable BTC price range that has decent odds of being achieved within the next BTC bullmarket cycle - of course, not guaranteed but reasonably within the realm of fair possibilities.

It seems that you have already answered the other part of my question, Paashaas, regarding what you are going to do, but I am not 100%  sure about that, which seems to be that you are not selling your bitcoin during such anticipated BTC price run, so you will likely be riding through this next bullrun and not really able to say "fuck you" with any confidence and irreversibility emphasis until $30k to $50k becomes our BTC floor, and you likely would not be retiring under such premature bridge burning circumstances because it is NOT as likely that $30k to $50k is going to be the bottom of the subsequent correction that could happen from whatever BTC price that we end up achieving in this next upcoming cycle, whether it is $50k, $100k $350k, or some other price (even possibly higher).

I believe that many of us regulars in the WO thread realize that there are decent odds of volatility that passes both ways through such $30k to $50k range.

Of course, many of us regular of the WO thread would be hopeful that the lower end of the $30k to $50k range would be the bottom of the next BTC price correction, yet we are far from guaranteed until we go through such cycle.... which should be scary for any of us who has not yet reached more permanent and sustainable "fuck you" status, and no one should be anywhere close to 100% clear where the upcoming BTC price cycle is going to take us.

Currently, I am considering that my range of comfortable "fuck you" status is about 10% of your range - so really my "fuck you" range is within the $3k to $5k arena, and that is likely based on my having had invested pretty damned BIG (relatively speaking) during 2014-2016 - but perhaps even based on my having much more capital at my disposal during that 2014-2016 time-period - in which I was taking money from my already existing investment funds that I had been building over nearly 30 years and to put about 10%-ish of that already existing stash (ended up being a bit more than 10%) from those funds into bitcoin.

But anyhow, surely seems to be a reasonable number for anyone who is investing into bitcoin and not necessarily relying on saying "fuck you" anytime soon but seeing a number that is within reach - and also it will likely be possible that during the next BTC price correction, we are going to have bottom areas that are in the $30k to $50k range - even if it is also quite possible to dip below that range, too.  Do I sound waffly?  Of course, since I had only invested as much as I had been wiling to lose into bitcoin, and I surely was prepared for BTC dips in this last cycle that went below my preferred $3k to $5k range, and still we are not completely removed from going below my "fuck you" range, because for me, it would have been a matter of less preferable to go below such range, even if such possibility is still within reach, but I have still been o.k. with losing the possibility of losing whatever gains have so far come that - just kind of falling out of the minimum "fuck you" territory.

Part of the reason that I feel o.k. in my skin in sounding waffly is because I hate to count my chickens before they are hatched, so in that regard, even if there are decent odds that your price range of $30k to $50k is achievable in the next cycle, I am also a bit concerned that there are possibilities that $3k to $5k is no longer going to hold (really low possibilities, but possibilities nonetheless).    

Accordingly, none of us should be counting our chickens before they are hatched... which causes me to always have a more conservative range of only averaging an achievement of 6% per year BTC price appreciation (from whatever is today's price) as another possible and concededly more conservative but still positive in terms of BTC returns on the lower area of BTC prices expectations scenario.  

Financial and psychological conservativism is also a process that never attempts to count chickens before they are hatched, but kind of plans ahead from today's BTC price, so of course, whenever there are boosts in today's BTC price (such as when we went up 42% in 12 hours on October 25th) that "going up" merely seems to contribute to some kind of additional BTC price (and psychology) cushion  - of course a psychology and financial cushion that could not be relied on with any kind of solid certainty to be sustained, but still with the passage of time these kinds of seemingly non-sustainable psychological and financial cushions can seem to build towards causing a stronger and stronger psychological and financial base, especially with a longer and longer passage of time, maybe even 3 to 5 years of working on buying, HODLing and accumulating BTC... during such ongoing seemingly outrageous ups and downs that ends up largely amounting to quite a bit more UPs than downs (thank you daddy bitcoin) with a base and a bottom that is largely "in" and a bottom, hopefully, that at some point in the near future is higher than our minimum "fuck you" status price range.. and the higher that we remain above our minimum "fuck you" status BTC price range bottom, the more that we can likely feel assured that our "fuck you" status is has become sustainably permanent rather than either wishful or temporary... and maybe, even we can pull the trigger in real life in both a psychological and financial way, and actually say "fuck you" to some actual real world peeps (perhaps making such "fuck you" speech to real world no coiners or whoever else happens to be in the area upon such excited real world utterance(s)?   ).

Feels good man.  



I agree LFC in terms of the ceiling of our anticipated upcoming BTC price run, but what about the subsequent floor that comes after the ceiling for BTC HODLer peeps who really do not plan on selling their BTC in any kinds of large amounts but instead plan to HODL the vast majority of their BTC through our seemingly upcoming and expected BTC price cycles and perhaps just to shave off some value from their BTC portfolio here and there along the way?  

There seem to be a certain number of regular WO thread participants, and Paashaas seems to be one of them, who seem to be quite disincline to sell large portions of his BTC holdings, even while realistically anticipating the various possible parameters of our next BTC price run, but instead remains in a kind of incrementalism mindset in terms of how he (they) plan to manage these BTC cycles in terms of long term BTC holdings' management and just anticipate HODLing through upcoming likely crazy-ass BTC price cycles while merely shaving off some value here and there along the way.  

What do you say about that?  You cannot really change the BTC management plans of others, but instead each of these peeps (whether WO regulars or not) has to figure out his/her own road forward, including the risks that any such deferral of gratification plan in regard to their BTC holdings might have (both in terms of finances and psychologically).