'Do you think mass acceptance of another coin, such as DNotes, is in any way dependent on mass acceptance of Bitcoin? Or could it happen independently?'
May I say 'both'? Bitcoin is 'running block' for us, Wiser: first-to-market. Once an individual, though, has some competency with Bitcoin, they may well consider other cryptos, and choose one of those.
And here is where I put in a plug for IndiaMikeZulu's model, P2P-friendly: if you set someone up with Not-Bitcoin as their first crypto, you then have a fine chance that they will both stick with that coin, and become part of its P2P/merchant network.
Have you noticed my constant interest in the altcoin-cap-to-Bitcoin-cap ratio? Your question is why I watch it. And just a couple of days ago, there were four cryptos running multi-mil-$ trading-volumes!
Mark (IndiaMikeZulu), Australia
All markets are fundamentally alike. Do we all still drive Ford Model T cars? After the ground breaker has had some success, the innovators come out of the woods, happens all the time, everywhere. If you build a better mouse trap.... Bitcoin is exactly like the Model T. It's not the first but, it is the first SUCCESSFUL crypto. Some people innitially saw both as a threat, some saw them as a amazing opportunity to change the future. Human nature will always trump the statistics and predictions, on both sides of any issue. Crypto, in some form, will always be with us far into the future. DNotes could well be the replacement for the Model T. Thank you, RJF. That is a very good long term prospective of how technology evolves. To be successful, it is not necessary be the first person who came up with the idea and turned it into a product or service. Ford Model T. has evolved thousands of times into the huge selections of cars we have today. Two classic yellow daylily plants known to be purposely cross pollenated in the early 1950's has led to over 80,000 registered cultivars with an array of stunning colors. Smokeys Gardens alone has created thousands of new flowers. One day when I have more time, some of them will be registered and made available for sale. Indeed, we all react to things differently; ranging from no reaction, threats or opportunities. Innovators and true entrepreneurs see imperfections and problems as opportunities. Often the bigger the problem, the greater the opportunity. I see Bitcoin as an amazing innovation with positive world changing implications. A few may agree with me but we all are seeing that, like Ford Model T, it is imperfect and much can be improved. DNotes is currently at the problem solving stage; the most boring of all to spectators. It is hard to see value when one can not envision what we are doing. Building the right infrastructure is hard work, time consuming and expensive. But to the outsiders, it may not even be worth the scrape value. Bitcoin and the blockchain technology can be drastically improved and taken to a much higher level to the extend that it meets the full functions of money and subsequently be superior to money. That is DNotes long term vision and everything that we are doing are strategically aligned towards reaching that goal. We strongly believe this is the right approach to fully exploit a rare and historic innovation. We see the full value of the whole package and committed to make it a lot better one day. Others, like the bankers may think that a stripped down version is good enough. They are right. Even a stripped version is a great improvement over their current inefficient outdated system. |
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Surprised more aren't talking about replace by fee. One of the biggest advantages for digital currency is paying for digital products and micro transactions, with instant transfer of funds and instant delivery, where you will be able to only change the fee amount but the receiving address is a huge issue for me. 0 confirmation transactions are no longer feasible with this type of change as it raises the risk of fraudulent transactions. Not saying that 0 confirmation transactions were't risky, but there is a certain level of acceptable risk. They are heading down the steep road of reversible transactions... You are absolutely correct. Non-reversible transaction upon confirmation and nearly zero transaction fees are among the most attractive features of using digital currency as a medium of exchange. Once those features are removed, mass acceptance of Bitcoin will not be achievable in a million years. Do you think mass acceptance of another coin, such as DNotes, is in any way dependent on mass acceptance of Bitcoin? Or could it happen independently? I personally am putting my money on independent mass acceptance of other altcoins. Mass acceptance of digital currency will not happen for another 5 to 10 years, and it is not dependent on Bitcoin being widely accepted as a medium of exchange. However, the digital currency that gained mass acceptance must be commonly used as a medium of exchange, meeting the full functions of money. Having said that, the success of Bitcoin is valuable in paving the way, creating the necessary ecosystem, like a Coinbase. As you correctly pointed, owners of Bitcoin ecosystem are business minded. They respond the best opportunities. Currency stability is crucial as a medium of exchange in global commerce. For a variety of reasons DNotes is just as volatile as any other altcoin today. As it is, it's not a viable medium of exchange. In that sense, we are correct for not pushing DNotes as a form of payment. Everything that we have been doing is to put DNotes on the best path to be a stable currency with reliable long term appreciation. We have plenty of work to do to make that happen. Once that is achieved DNotes will break out of the "sleeper mode" and get the attention of the likes of Coinbase. Until then, it is fine to fly below the radar. As I have a whole bunch of DNotes currently locked up in various retirement accounts in the vault, five to ten more years of "flying below the radar" in anticipation of mass acceptance of digital currency is about perfect timing for me  Today's prices make for a fantastic buying opportunity, which I believe I will be taking advantage of in the next few days... DNotes has been casting a very wide net. Frankly, our strategic positioning is not that easy to understand or appreciate. |
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Surprised more aren't talking about replace by fee. One of the biggest advantages for digital currency is paying for digital products and micro transactions, with instant transfer of funds and instant delivery, where you will be able to only change the fee amount but the receiving address is a huge issue for me. 0 confirmation transactions are no longer feasible with this type of change as it raises the risk of fraudulent transactions. Not saying that 0 confirmation transactions were't risky, but there is a certain level of acceptable risk. They are heading down the steep road of reversible transactions... You are absolutely correct. Non-reversible transaction upon confirmation and nearly zero transaction fees are among the most attractive features of using digital currency as a medium of exchange. Once those features are removed, mass acceptance of Bitcoin will not be achievable in a million years. Do you think mass acceptance of another coin, such as DNotes, is in any way dependent on mass acceptance of Bitcoin? Or could it happen independently? I personally am putting my money on independent mass acceptance of other altcoins. Mass acceptance of digital currency will not happen for another 5 to 10 years, and it is not dependent on Bitcoin being widely accepted as a medium of exchange. However, the digital currency that gained mass acceptance must be commonly used as a medium of exchange, meeting the full functions of money. Having said that, the success of Bitcoin is valuable in paving the way, creating the necessary ecosystem, like a Coinbase. As you correctly pointed, owners of Bitcoin ecosystem are business minded. They respond the best opportunities. Currency stability is crucial as a medium of exchange in global commerce. For a variety of reasons DNotes is just as volatile as any other altcoin today. As it is, it's not a viable medium of exchange. In that sense, we are correct for not pushing DNotes as a form of payment. Everything that we have been doing is to put DNotes on the best path to be a stable currency with reliable long term appreciation. We have plenty of work to do to make that happen. Once that is achieved DNotes will break out of the "sleeper mode" and get the attention of the likes of Coinbase. Until then, it is fine to fly below the radar. |
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Surprised more aren't talking about replace by fee. One of the biggest advantages for digital currency is paying for digital products and micro transactions, with instant transfer of funds and instant delivery, where you will be able to only change the fee amount but the receiving address is a huge issue for me. 0 confirmation transactions are no longer feasible with this type of change as it raises the risk of fraudulent transactions. Not saying that 0 confirmation transactions were't risky, but there is a certain level of acceptable risk. They are heading down the steep road of reversible transactions... You are absolutely correct. Non-reversible transaction upon confirmation and nearly zero transaction fees are among the most attractive features of using digital currency as a medium of exchange. Once those features are removed, mass acceptance of Bitcoin will not be achievable in a million years. |
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There would be too much to quote here, this is a must read for everyone if you haven't come across it already, The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment by Mike Hearn. Fair warning, it is a bit disheartening to read but an important view point to consider from a former bitcoin core developer. Mike is clearly passionate and disappointed, even open source communities need good leadership that is not driven by greed and self interest. I don't think the main point here is that Bitcoin will fail. It is very likely to be replaced, though, by a cryptocurrency that actually does effectively address the issues. Right now, Bitcoin is the most accepted channel for connecting crypto to USD (and other fiat currencies), but that could literally change overnight, especially if a renowned service like CoinBase starts offering DNote/fiat trades (or pick any other reputable altcoin). If it truly becomes easier for the customers and the business to go through a new altcoin/fiat channel, then that's what's going to happen. As the article indicates, the Coinbase people are primarily businessmen, and they will go with what works. If Bitcoin quits working, Coinbase and companies like it will still be around, just using something else. It's really that simple. I personally think Bitcoin will be around for quite a while, but it's doubtful whether it will remain the primary cryptocurrency. Quite frankly, there are better options out there, and the only reason they aren't being fully utilized is that they haven't reached the necessary critical mass of people knowing about and adopting them. Once that critical mass is reached, Bitcoin will be displaced as the primary. It will then continue to be used for some niche uses (as many altcoins are used now), and its capacity will fall to about what its block size can actually handle. If you've put all your eggs in the Bitcoin basket, then the news from this article is very sad. However, if you keep the big picture in mind (especially the overall altcoin landscape), then it's really not as big a deal as the author makes it sound. It doesn't seem any different to me than say the first computer company being displaced as the market leader by a newer one that does computers better. Happens all the time. Technology always evolve and get better. There are many smart people in our industry capable of solving any technical problem, given the leadership and support, the lack of which is not helpful in the case of Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin is not going away anytime soon, though it may remain as a speculative trading vehicle, with limited use as a medium of exchange. It is a massive undertaking to build a viable digital currency capable of meeting the full functions of money. In my opinion, the possibility of accomplishing such ultimate goal is remote, without strong leadership, commitment, and long term vision, working constructively as a group. Drama of this nature promotes a culture of "build and destroy" so prevalent in our industry. |
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Cryptsy finally posts a meaningful update. Unfortunately it's not good news. Yes, money was stolen (so it wasn't just "technical difficulties"); one option is filing for bankruptcy. They are hoping they might be able to recover the lost funds (apparently they are sitting in a wallet and haven't moved since the theft), but it's a long shot. Trading and withdrawals suspended indefinitely, although it looks like some markets are active. Also, not sure if it's just BTC and LTC withdrawals they are suspending or all of them. http://blog.cryptsy.com/post/137323646202/announcement/Disappointing to say the least. Hopefully the lost funds can be recovered or otherwise worked out. Paul Vernon: "This worked fine for awhile, as profits decreased due to low volume and low Bitcoin prices, we would adjust our spending accordingly. It wasn’t until an article from Coinfire came out that contained many false accusations that things began to crumble. The article basically caused a bank-run, and since we only had so much in reserves for those currencies problems began." Other than the obvious mismanagement, which, in reality, a LOT of businesses in the same position would have done, the statement above about "Coinfire" is key to a rampant problem in the industry, irresponsible reporting. Some people think "freedom of the press" means you can publish anything you want, accuse anyone of anything and, outright lie to the public without consequence. Nothing could be further from the truth especially in a new industry where why too much illegal activity already exists. The Press has a RESPONSIBILITY and a legal mandate to report ONLY the truth. Truth meaning well researched FACTS supported by proven events and publicly available information. It is NOT their job to ruin businesses and peoples lives for the sake of headlines and self gratification oh, and money, there's always the money. And to make matters worse, since so little real content/information is available, ever article and statement has the instant ability to go viral. No chance to make corrections or pull an article, it's already global right after penning the last sentence. I'm sure (?) as the industry matures this will be better controlled and some sense of responsibility will overtake the "wild west" attitude of our fringe press but, even the traditional news sources would sacrifice honesty and accuracy for ratings so, I suppose it's up to us to communicate the truth. Sad. So, in a way, Cryptsy was the victim here in more ways than one. The thing I still have trouble understanding is Paul's silence. He didn't have to reveal everything, hell, he didn't have to reveal ANYTHING, all he had to do was to communicate, to reassure customers, to say "We're working on it, sorry for the inconvenience" This alone would have softened the blow when the truth was revealed, perhaps enough to allow them to continue operations with their customer's help and understanding instead of angst and mistrust. To ALL you new crypto businesses out there I say this: COMMUNICATE! No matter what the problem, no matter how bleak the outcome may be, your fault or not, TELL YOUR CUSTOMERS SOMETHING! When I was in the the Internet Provider business we had one solid rule that was unbreakable: "talk to the customer, we all work for them." I agree, RJF. Cryptsy is a sad case and another setback for the industry. Damage control should have kicked in immediately. When there is a problem of this magnitude, people would only accept excuses for so long before they started speculating. This inevitably led to the "Coinfire" bad press. As you correctly pointed out; "COMMUNICATE! No matter what the problem, no matter how bleak the outcome may be, your fault or not, TELL YOUR CUSTOMERS SOMETHING!" |
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Wait? What? They ran their Bitcoin and I've-Never-Heard-Of-Altcoin clients on the same server that would allow a hack like this? And ummm... do industry standard cold wallets not work now or,... Ohhhhhh!
Let's not even go into the fact that they ran a ponzi, people whose bitcoins were hacked were able to get their money out with investment of new people's money, people who were investing / storing unaware that Cryptsy was insolvent. You're all so correct, they should have communicated. Let us hope the funds are retrieved. This is brand damaging, and I don't see Cryptsy operating again in future.
Briefly popping by to say hello (apologies for my absence - finished my course today for a personal training franchise I've started so that I can choose the hours that I work in and around the last of my university). That said, I'm now really looking forward to Alan's book.
We missed you for a while, TeeGee. Always good to see you. We are anxiously looking forward to see the next video you and the boys have been working on. I trust that it will be a great video. Giving Big Vern the benefits of the doubt, Cryptsy situation is very sad and challenging. Damage control could have promptly kicked once the incident was discovered. I will leave it at that for now. The book is beginning to shape up nicely. It has been much more demanding than I anticipated. Like DNotes, the book will clearly differentiate itself from other entrepreneurial business books. It is easy to read and inspiring; starting from top to bottom. Here is another unedited quote from the book, " In essence, this approach to design begins with you, and ends with the creation of an entire team and organization that reflects your values and mindset - in much the same way that the planets in the solar system reflect the light of the Sun. When done properly, you will achieve the goal of multiplying yourself and extending the reach of your leadership. That will in turn expand your sphere of influence beyond only those with whom you have major interaction each day, and allow you to impact even those employees you may not regularly see. Because you will be creating a team of like-minded, vision and goal-sharing individuals, your organization will have the capability of achieving the type of exceptional results that others will only be able to wish they could enjoy." |
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This is a good article even if it seems at odds with an industry that is anything but up close and personal. Word of Mouth Marketing Is A Powerful Tool For Bitcoin Companieshttp://digitalmoneytimes.com/11993-2/In practice, gaining any meaningful amount of "word of mouth" is extremely difficult and seldom happen. The book I am working on could be our best vehicle to facilitate favorable word of mouth promotion for DNotes. It could happen as a bi-product of our sincere efforts to assist small business owners. The book is shaping up very well and could be quite unique with great potential. I am introducing a new concept for employee performance appraisal, which has always been an unresolved challenge for most companies. There has been some success among a small percentage of the larger companies in incorporating "Management By Objectives (MBO)" and more recently "Balanced Scorecard" but for the most part small business owners have continued their struggle on how to evaluate employee's performance objective. |
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Unfortunately, or fortunately, however you look at it, John's mind has gone south for the duration. Several incidents in Belize have pushed him over the edge although he was always ON the edge. I met him once, quite an interesting character but, perhaps a padded room awaits him in the future. Not saying he is right or wrong but, consider the source. McAfee raised a few good points. Personally I don't believe there will be just one digital currency. Some may find niche applications and some may act as representative tokens. So far DNotes is the only one that seems to have long term goals and a real business plan. You are correct, there will be many, some successful, some not. DNotes will succeed. DNotes has always had a plan and, they stick to it and, it's a plan for the success of all involved, that's what makes NOTE different. There are more committed, intelligent, experienced and capable people behind DNotes than almost all other offerings in the crypto-sphere. All I'm saying is to not put all your trust in John's conclusions... On anything! Thanks for your confidence and support, RJF. I am surprised that the price of DNotes has drifted this low. Obviously, not enough investors understand or value our long term projects we consider vital to our long term success. Our priorities are uniquely different. We are investing for the long term to give DNotes the best chance of gaining mass acceptance one day. Our industry is more short term oriented; hence the mismatch. |
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I'm extremely excited to see the DNotes Company and Alan's book launch come to fruition in 2016.
DNotes is in sleeper mode right now, but knowing the team very well I am not sure how long this will last.
Thanks, for visiting us psybits. Being someone who has been actively involved in our industry since 2012, I trust that you have seen it all. As it has been apparent recently, DNotes has selected not just a different path, but a lonely path. In many ways we have been going against the grain. Focusing in foundation building to achieve long term strategic vision is obviously not that exciting in our industry. So for better or for worse, DNotes is in sleeper mode. DNotes has been casting a very wide net. Everything that we doing are strategically linked. Irrespective of how the market is pricing DNotes these days we have been making progress constantly in multiple fronts. 2016 will be a great year for us. The buying opportunity for DNotes at this price may continue for a few more months. Things could change fairly quickly once other projects are lunched. |
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Despite a lot more favorable news on Bitcoin recently, it is becoming apparent that even some of the major players are becoming more conservative in burning cash. Venture capital has a new interest – blockchain. This reminded me of the “dot com” era. Before the Internet bubble burst; anything with the extension of dot com to their name was funded. Blockchain seems to be following that shadow. Trade shows are very expensive to participate. We spent as much as $250,000 for one Comdex show in Vegas when Dauphin Technology introduced its first DTR (Desk Top Replacement) tablet computer 1993. World of Bitcoin Shrinks as Startups Scale Back at CES 2016Pete Rizzo CoinDesk One of the biggest events on the annual tech calendar has passed without many major announcements from bitcoin or blockchain industry firms. The 2016 Consumer Electronics Show (CES), held in Las Vegas last week, saw a notable decrease in the number of industry startups attending, with 2015 attendees including Blockchain, BitPay,Circle and Kraken indicating they did not participate. Further, of the assembled participants, a lineup that included lesser-known names such as BitCircle, BitRouter, Bits Limited, HyprKey and Ledger, only the latter company had a booth showcasing its technology or an announcement as it unveiled its new flagship bitcoin hardware wallet, Ledger Blue. Ledger co-founder Thomas France told CoinDesk during the conference that he noticed a particular absence of peers at the event. "We’re the only bitcoin startup this year. There’s a couple of bitcoin [people] that came to the stand, but no other bitcoin products,” France reported last week. …………. " These events are super expensive. You come out here as a startup, you’ll drop $60,000–$70,000. So depending on where you are in the funding cycle you may not see it as a priority," Raviv said. He suggested some established digital currency firms may be seeking to conserve funds in light of perceived funding issues as investor interest transitions to blockchain use cases. Read More: http://www.coindesk.com/world-of-bitcoin-shrinks-as-startups-scale-back-at-ces-2016/ |
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Cryptsy:
"Regarding other issues that have been apparent at Cryptsy for the last couple months, I will be making another post to explain what has been happening in the next couple days."
I understand there is a nasty divorce and gag orders involved in the mystery why Vernon has not spoken out. Even so, it's shaky at best... No excuse can or should be used to justify ignoring so many customers for so long. Having said that, if you are married and planning to start your own business or already owing a business here is an unedited quote from my book: " If you are married, have your spouse pledged to be supportive of your business venture, for better or for worse, otherwise get the best paying job you can find or you will be handicapped right off the gate. Should things get rough, your home is your only refuge to rejuvenate to fight for another day. With or without a formal commitment, your spouse is already your business partner. Would your spouse make the rest of your day better so that you can be energized to have another productive day building the future dreams for your family? Or is it a case that your bad days at work aren't bad because it was after work when things often got rough? If you cannot have peace, comfort, and support when you come home after a long day, your chances of being better than the competition will be greatly diminished." |
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Found this in my email: "We are excited to announce that CoinDesk is being acquired by Digital Currency Group ( DCG), a leader in the bitcoin and blockchain industry and one of CoinDesk’s earliest investors and supporters." This is a good move. Digital Currency Group is led by Barry Silbert who started DCG after selling SecondMarket to Nasdaq. He is one of the most active supporters of the Bitcoin industry with many excellent projects in the works. It is all very good for our industry. When things are done right, there are massive opportunities for everyone. Smart investors should start focusing on long term projects that serve a meaningful purpose with strong leadership and commitment behind it. We are witnessing the greatest technology revolution since the Internet. But most importantly, unlike the Internet, anyone can participate, starting out with pocket change. That itself is historic and one of the reasons I am so passionate in my commitment to help build DNotes as the trusted global digital currency for everyone worldwide to participate. I am certain that Silbert and his investors will be making a lot of money out of their investment, but not everyone can participate. |
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There is a lot of really interesting information in this story. This is one of the points that stood out to me: "American legislation has defended Bitcoin well. The Citizens United case has made the legal precedent of money as a form of speech and information, which has huge ramifications for Bitcoin. If the U.S. Government wants to ban Bitcoin, they risk creating a solid legal precedent that Bitcoin is money and is a legal form of information and speech by Constitutional law and current legal constructs. Not a road any government bureaucrat wants to head down."Caught my attention as well. I've never worried that crypto would be banned in the US. Regulate it to death and make it difficult and costly, that's a different story. But I feel as though our government is embracing it more, it's a slow process, time will tell. I do not see any likelihood that Bitcoin or digital currency will be banned in the US. The legal classification of it may continue to be in consistent, presenting a different set of challenges. But even those will be resolved over time. The US market is huge, though its population is only a fraction of that of China. As pretty well demonstrated in the current turmoil of the Chinese stock market, there is a strong "casino investing" mentality in China. With the Chinese stock market on the decline, Bitcoin and other digital currencies are filling the void at the right time. Unfortunate, P & D thrives in a highly speculative and manipulative environment. |
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Quote from: indiamikezulu on Today at 09:35:51 AM
Hey ya, Chase! Ian and I recall Mintchip. It was the first 'government' coin that we ever saw!
And investment opportunity? Here's my stab in the dark:
the article mentions 'creating applications.' So the commercialisation around those, and the fact that it's 'government-backed'* precludes the volatility that remains a real problem for everyone except crypto-geek traders.
*which assumes that those involved still believe in Santa, perpetual-motion machines, and the stability of fiat currencies.
Mark (IndiaMikeZulu), Australia
Quote From Shepherd Today:
One would assume that if acquired by a private party, the Canadian government would not be involved. It would operate as a decentralized digital currency with leadership guidance. But I am not going to hold my breath on that. This industry continues to generate a lot of confusing claims, making it increasingly difficult to separate the real thing from the wishful.
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Warning from Cryptsy!
BigVern @cryptsy 1h1 hour ago
A new phishing attempt is out. It is not from cryptsy. Do not acknowledge it
20 retweets 13 likes
Reply Retweet 20
Like 13
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This is one to be taken seriously, depending on the team, funding, and other resources behind it. |
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New Exchange: https://1ex.trade/index.phpThey are looking for stable coins to add, any interest in adding DNotes? "We are pleased to announce that 1EX.TRADE is open for trading. Today on the 8th of January 2016 is a new mile stone been set for 1EX.TRADE. After months of development and testing we have completed all and are now fully operational. Over the next few days / weeks more and more coins will follow. Only verified or old stable coins will be listed. Multi currency functionality where the trader can set his own market. Direct bank link for withdraw and deposit fiat currencies. We hope you all like the new exchange and start trading with 1EX.TRADE Regards The 1EX.TRADE Team" Thanks RJF. They are of course more than welcome to add DNotes. At a quick look, I couldn't find out much about the company though, who owns and operates it, where they are located, and so on. We have to understandably be cautious. Without doubt. Be nice to get in on the "ground floor" if they check out. CryptoCapital appears to be the parent: https://cryptocapital.co/ & https://cryptocapital.co/exchanges.htmlI spent over two hours using every angle starting with Crypto Capital. Frankly, I could not connect all the dots with some level of comfort. Sometime, it better to miss the train than jump onto the wrong train. |
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Netflix has been in the news a lot lately. With very aggressive expansion plan in place, Netflix could be Bitcoin’s best friend. But don’t forget that Netflix struggled for years during its formative stage. It is now one of the biggest success stories. Innovators see things differently with long term horizon of years not months. “We’ll see where we go from here in the next 10, 15 years from a payments perspective..” certainly caught my attention.” We know that DNotes will be a viable payment option by then, for sure. Netflix Exec Suggests Streaming Video Giant Open to BitcoinNetflix CFO David Wells touched on the subject of bitcoin during a question-and-answer session at an investor event earlier this month. “We'll see where we go from here in the next 10, 15 years from a payments perspective, because countries still want to hold on to their monetary policy. But [it] sure would be nice to have bitcoin, in terms of a global currency, that you could use globally.” Read More: http://www.coindesk.com/netflix-cfo-bitcoin-payments/ |
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That is a scary statement. RBS has advised clients to brace for a “cataclysmic year” and a global deflationary crisis, warning that major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may plummet to $16 a barrel. The bank’s credit team said markets are flashing stress alerts akin to the turbulent months before the Lehman crisis in 2008. “ Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small,” it said in a client note. Andrew Roberts, the bank’s credit chief, said that global trade and loans are contracting, a nasty cocktail for corporate balance sheets and equity earnings. This is particularly ominous given that global debt ratios have reached record highs. “China has set off a major correction and it is going to snowball. Equities and credit have become very dangerous, and we have hardly even begun to retrace the 'Goldlocks love-in' of the last two years,” he said. Mr Roberts expects Wall Street and European stocks to fall by 10pc to 20pc, with even an deeper slide for the FTSE 100 given its high weighting of energy and commodities companies. “London is vulnerable to a negative shock. All these people who are ‘long’ oil and mining companies thinking that the dividends are safe are going to discover that they’re not at all safe,” he said. LOL, when they say "Sell everything" I don't think they mean DNotes as well. I just bought some at below 1,000 sat. That is cheap. The global economy is rapidly deteriorating. US and Japan may continue to look okay for a while, but are all in one big mess. |
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