iammagicmike,
no, it was not there due to the mess of the first phase of batch 2.
I had a BitPay confirmation only till yesterday when the order was added to my page inside avalon store.
spiccioli Please don't slander the good name of bitpay by erroneously giving them credit for that total cluster caused by walletbit on Feb 2 & 3. As mentioned, many of us Feb 2 & 3 batch 2 orderers have never received confirmation of our orders from Avalon. This remains the case for me and others, though Yifu has stated that if you have a walletbit receipt your order is fine. |
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We've I've been hearing something 'good' every week since January. I suspect that we will continue to hear good things in all the following weeks from now. I don't think we'll see any actual progress apart from more prototyping  FTFY  We've been hearing good things about this project since last June. |
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With the BTC price falling sharply, I predict that ASIC's will suddenly start to ship to customers.
Why? Because at $250/btc, it made no sense to ship a device which could make so much money.
Now that the price has fallen over, it will make financial sense to start shipping to customers instead of mining themselves. Their cheapest device was $149 for months, which makes this image even more astonishing:  ...and by astonishing I mean fraudulent. |
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I thought I had heard that BLF-Josh said that anyone who had ordered in the last two weeks would get theirs by July. But now I can't find that quote again. Sounds like something he'd say, but I think that assertion is highly suspect given how disorganized they appear to be here in mid April. Josh has also suggested that BFL could assemble and ship hundreds of units per day, but that too seems highly unlikely given their track record and small limited facilities. I've also noted a conspicuously absent lack of information coming from BFL about their future batches of chips, which is troubling given how quickly they'd deplete the supply they have when shipping commences. |
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Great news. May I ask if you ordered on February 2 or February 3? Also, when you say "store account" do you mean here? http://store.avalon-asics.com/I'm just trying to get a sense of whether they're going in order and adding those early orders one at a time. I know I submitted a support ticket for my 2/3 order(which has not been added yet), but it was a forever ago. Ordered 3rd February and by store account I mean http://store.avalon-asics.com/What number(ish) was your ticket?
#190 TY. Glad they're getting that mess on the first couple days of batch 2 orders sorted out. They've apparently not gotten to ticket #216 yet. Likely it'll take them awhile to work out who's who. |
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Please, please! One time! <-- Order still missing from order page.  Ditto. I suspect there are still many of those early batch 2 orders missing. |
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Yes but a guess. The spreadsheet takes into account the current has rate, which includes some asics already, and was guessing about 20 Ths more by the time BFL ships. I'll make excel files available soon. I have a better calculation that I plan to post soon. IC, I missed that tidbit. 20Th may be rather low given that Avalon's batch 2 40Th/s is scheduled to begin shipping sometime between tomorrow and May 5 and ASICMiner is expected to add 5 - 13Th to the network around the same time. I believe what BFL actually has on hand is one wafer of chips only, though perhaps they've made some progress in that area as I do not follow their unofficial releases. |
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Seems cogs are turning in the Avalon 'machine', my support ticket to get my orders added to my store account (they were missing, but I'd received WalletBit/Yifu email confirmation), was just handled and they've been added. Great news. May I ask if you ordered on February 2 or February 3? Also, when you say "store account" do you mean here? http://store.avalon-asics.com/I'm just trying to get a sense of whether they're going in order and adding those early orders one at a time. I know I submitted a support ticket for my 2/3 order(which has not been added yet), but it was a forever ago. |
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I just want to note that it is now 9000btc to get to $90. Before the sell down from $100 it was only 5000-5500 to get to $90.
At this point that makes it even more likely we get there. IMO the only way for the bulls to turn this around is a bunch of market orders to 160. All the big fish which hadn't enough liquidity during the crash will jump at the opportunity once the bids stopped accumulating close to market price. you really do talk a lot of nonsense I put his static on ignore and have been happier ever since. Just sayin'. |
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I'm with the OP.
I've been waiting since 09/12... I could have asked my money back, but decided to wait this out. Can you not at the very least see a conspicuous absence of bias from those that do have an order(s) with BFL? If you placed an order with BFL in June of 2012 and were assured of 1Gh/1watt and an October 2012 shipping date then you should be angry with BFL. You may or may not have chosen to place an order with Avalon Q4 2012 based on BFL's bogus projections. Those that placed orders with BFL in June of 2012 may have had their resources tied up on products that were consistently just around the corner...according to BFL. Because of this deceitful tactic some of those investors would have been much further ahead by cancelling their BFL orders long ago, but this is hindsight and wasn't clear then, precisely because of BFL's tactic of constantly portraying their SC product line as being "in the final stages of development". The argument that requesting a refund solves everything is a non-starter. Orders placed and paid in BTC were converted to fiat at that time. Some of these orders were placed when the exchange rate was $6. An order placed in June of 2012 for a single sc would have been 216ish BTC, while a refund of that same order processed this very second would return 13.4BTC. That's a pretty unappealing proposition, and when you add to that the total lack of competition in the marketplace and BFL's vaporware price increase, most will simply choose to keep their place in line for it's perceived "value". |
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For some reason, you are assuming that in order to obtain education you have to be pro-socialistic. I am not sure why you think that way... All the education, that really matters I obtained on my own, mind you I paid BIG bucks for it. The socialistic piece of this is just getting a diploma regardless of what the heck it is worth. Of course, I am against this. How many public school students actually know anything worthwhile?
American socialism is this... You are in the middle-upper to upper class - you bust your ass and then you pay extra taxes to take care of the rest "who does not work". Yes, a chunk of that money goes to army/road building but a lot of it does not. Now, I do not have a problem with charity but I like to do it by my own consent not by decision of some politicians who cut my check arbitrarily from my standpoint.
To add to that, most taxes actually are going to military (a 500+ billion dollar army doesn't come from nowhere), a huge chunk of it goes to social security and welfare, a lot more goes to paying national interest on its debts (lol.) And then there's the wages of every government employee. I know I didn't sign up to have all my cash siphoned into the war; so why be for or against warfare? The gov's got a mind of its own, anyway. Statism has shown for thousands of years what good it does. It's just a matter of when, for the individual, they realize the source of all the world's problems; it's because a tiny portion of people rule the world, and they're always competing for complete control. For a reason I still don't get why the hell goverment pays interest for debt... When it's loaned by FED for free... Must be some very special kind of socialism... Correct. This special kind of socialism is called Fascism. Masquerading as socialists promotes debates such as this one. Na·zi (näts, nt-) n. pl. Na·zis 1. A member of the National Socialist German Workers' Party, founded in Germany in 1919 and brought to power in 1933 under Adolf Hitler. 2. often nazi An adherent or advocate of policies characteristic of Nazism; a fascist. adj. Of, relating to, controlled by, or typical of the National Socialist German Workers' Party. http://www.thefreedictionary.com/NaziThe concept that Socialism is the extreme left and Fascism is the extreme right on the political spectrum is ridiculous. They're both forms of collectivism. |
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Mining reward adjusts based on difficulty. As mining becomes less profitable some portion of miners stop mining and difficulty falls over time. The miners with the least efficient mining hardware and/or highest operating costs will tend to be the first ones to stop mining.
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I posted my math on this on my blog. The post is a little long but it shows my method for figuring it out. Of course (since I ordered a BFL 50ghs) the whole thing assumes that the butterfly lab units will eventually ship. I think they will. If they don't the hash rate won't change much. But if they do ship it changes a LOT. http://mineshaft.me/2013/04/initial-roi-estimates/Interesting read. One thing that bothered me while reading through the data presented that perhaps you could clarify. Was network hashrate added by vendors that do currently have a working product(Avalon & ASICMiner) taken into account? |
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Thanks for your replies.
I want to give my opinion here.
I think a good way to circumvent this problem is to not to limit the amount of BTC to 21M. Instead it should have a deterministic inflation rate of let's say 1%. This would have 2 benefits:
First the concept of mining as it works today could go on for ever. Secondly, deflationary forces such as loss of BTC, could be compensated for.
I general inflation as it is today is not a good thing cuz it takes monex from the savers to the speculaters, but if the inflation rate is small and deterministic it would be a good compromise.
What do you think of that? History shows that flexible inflation rates have a nasty habit of changing regularly. This is generally done for the benefit of one group and at the expense of another. Bitcoin has a model and that model should be adhered to. There are altchains available with different philosophies at their cores, if one of those is seen as superior then free market forces should cause it to rise to prominence. |
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Is it me or is FPGA development basically dead?
Almost every vendor except ZTEX has broken websites or has gone out of business. It's not just you. It's entirely possible that one particular ASIC vaporware mining product producer sent the FPGA mining hardware market to an early grave with a premature announcement of ASIC mining hardware products that they're still unable to produce nearly one year later. |
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OP, I think you've got it pretty much right on... the company is legit, but completely inexperienced in actually delivering this type of product. Anyone who says that "BFL Lied" is basing that off a misguided sense of entitlement rather than facts. You do realize that they(BFL) claimed to be experts in exactly this field correct? Further that their COO has on occasions too numerous to count attempted to portray BFL's competitors as amateurs and themeselves(BFL) as the real pros in this field. This is fact, and can be easily verified by anybody by simply searching BFL's faq and/or Inaba/BFL_Josh's posts. Given this fact how do you reconcile your two above quoted statements? When I ordered my fpgas from BFL I was told it would be 2 months to have them delivered... they arrived 3 weeks early. When I placed my pre-orders for upgrades... I was told "expect a shipping date before march 2013"
From my perspective, I can call them anytime I want and have someone speak to me. I could if I wanted to request and get a refund... and from my perspective they're 14 days behind on shipping. Sure I was excited when they mentioned a ship day in october... but my plans were all done based on what the sales rep told me at the time of the order. So yes, I'm slightly annoyed that avalon shipped first, but I'm honestly expecting BFL to start delivering product any day now. If BFL does begin shipping a product any day now, it will not be the product ordered, or the product people ordered going all the way back to June of 2012, it will be a vastly inferior product, with many times the power consumption footprint. Even if the company is struggling on the tech side of things, the fact that they've adjusted numbers on hash rate, price and power consumption indicates to me that they're in the process of solving these issues. Expect a product soon. Anyone who says that "BFL Lied" is basing that off a misguided sense of entitlement rather than facts. Things happen when bringing a product to market, I sure some things could have been explained in a more timely manner... but so far they've had good enough reasons for the delays. Switching the packaging for example is a multi month delay at least, usually around 6 months in my experience. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance |
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An author on Slate wrote on this. I'm not sure what to think about it, but I'll leave you to interpret what you will: Felix Salmon and many others have pointed out that a currency cannot succeed with a supply that is fixed, or if it grows too slowly. A currency is used to enter transactions; the more transactions there are, the more of the money you need. As the economy grows, a fixed-supply currency becomes worth more in terms of goods and services, and people begin to hoard it—expecting that if they wait a little longer, they will be able to buy more. Once hoarding takes over, circulation ends, and with it the function of the currency. Hoarding accounts for the large increase in the value of bitcoins[...].
An even more fundamental problem with bitcoins, and indeed any private currency, is that there is no way to limit its supply. True, bitcoins cannot be manufactured beyond the limits set by Nakamoto. But there is no way to prevent future Nakamotos from creating bitcoin substitutes—say, bytecoin, or botcoin. If merchants are willing to accept bitcoins, they will be willing to accept the substitutes, especially as bitcoins become scarce and consumers scramble for substitutes. Nakamoto must have realized this because there are not enough bitcoins to substitute for the currencies around the world. The currency can only succeed if it is expanded or supplemented. But if there are no constraints on substitute digital currencies—and there aren’t—then the value of bitcoins will plummet as the subs begin to circulate. And once it becomes clear that there is no limit, people will realize that their holdings could become worthless at any moment, and demand for bitcoins and the other currencies will collapse, ending the experiment.You can read the entire thing here: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/view_from_chicago/2013/04/bitcoin_is_a_ponzi_scheme_the_internet_currency_will_collapse.html |
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Creative - yes, that is what I was referring to.
In my view, these are just the natural growing pains of moving out of bleeding edge territory on the adoption curve. We grew too fast, people got hurt. But traders will naturally migrate to other exchanges (and more exchanges will spring up) as a result of the pain. So in the long run, the community will be more robust, and we'll further reduce the perceived single-point-of-failure issue. I hope people actually do learn from this. It does seem like those trading on the other exchanges are reacting less and less to Mt. Joke collapses, which is a very healthy sign. |
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Honestly, I had been on the fence about whether the next leg was up or down, as we seemed to be terminating the symmetric wedge. When I saw this image comparing the last big crash to the chart picture right now... https://i.imgur.com/fZwy3xd.pngThis, paired with the uncertainty, and I moved to a 50/50 position. Then the lag spike hit. We'll see in a few minutes...but I think we're far more likely than not to have another downturn, from here ($109). You mean based on Mt. Joke exchange rates and their currently 28m lag and low trading volume? |
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Gox is crippling down probably "victim of their Success" aka DDOS by thousands of buyers.. More likely the retarded staff over at Mt. Joke is playing a game of battlefield on the trading server. It's an 80's era compaq and cannot handle much ya know. |
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