That is part of the problem.  The diptwat has found a new niche in which he was able to get away with (so far) not escrowing an earlier bet, so he has realized that he can bet whatever the fuck he wants.  There is no downside to his making whatever bet because he does not have to pay up front, and of course, he has little to no credibility in terms of reputation, so nothing to lose there, and he will neverr have to pay.. because he is a twat... but he might be able to collect.   

Why you starting only at 2013 with your historical rendition and thereby prediction? 

And you really have any kind of reasonable belief that 2x per year would be a sustainable model in any kind of long term projection? 

I consider myself to be within the realm of consistently bitcoin bullish peeps, so I am no real stranger to attempting to fit in with the bitcoin bullis - but still Phil_S.  To me, it seems a bit much of an expectation that BTC prices would continue to 2x on an annual basis in the long term, even if we get BIG new money coming in and network effects that considerably expand use cases and liquidation.  I am just thinking that the slope of BTC's price appreciation should get less steep with the passage of time, no? 

Maybe the 2x price appreciation on an annual basis can last another couple of halvenings (four year cycles), but aren't we going to start to see some saturation that causes the slope to flatten out?

You make some decent points in summarizing some of your discussions with lambie bambie, but this part of you above post "I think you mean well," causes me to conclude that you are giving that attention whore nutjob way too much benefit of the doubt.

He tries to act like he knows something that the rest of us do not know, and sure he can be a bit creative, funny and even thought provoking, but that does not mean that he means well.  You gotta take him with a fucking BIG ASS grain of salt because his whole damned  wanna be sorcerer troll style is not even unlike his interwebs namesake.  If any of you had been around for notlambchop, lambie bambie's style is very similar.  Notlambchop, on the other hand, had a bearish perspective that he would interweave bullish assertions of admissions from time to time, but this lambie bambie, is nearly the same kind of extreme attention whore seeking but just comes at the whole bitcoin matter from a short term bear long term bull angle (trying to appeal to the bullish underlying tendencies of all of us to make his troll/shilling or whatever he is trying to accomplish more effective). 

Fuck giving benefit of the doubt to that fucktwat, even if coincidentally he might present some decent ideas here and there, especially since he is taking some of the long term bullish matters to an intellectual extreme that might cause any guy (or gal) to consider the ideas about how much allocation is actually reasonable... because there are also some nearly normal  (or seemingly normal) bitcoiners out there who do have good intentions and are on the extreme end of the spectrum in their actual good intentions to attempt to live completely off of bitcoin - which seems considerably extreme even to many of the more normal folks in bitcoin that might be invested in more reasonable ways that might be anywhere between 1% and 70%... even though personally, I would not recommend anyone who is quasi-new to bitcoin to go above 10% unless they are completely set and diversified in their other investments (and I am not referring to other cryptos in terms of being set, secured or diversified) or if they had gotten to way higher levels of BTC allocation through mere price appreciation of BTC that both presumes that they have been in bitcoin longer (at least before the 2017 bullrun) and also presumes that they had also had other investments that caused them to be largely set and/or secure in terms of their long term income, regular living expenses and emergency funds etc.

TLDR: (reluctantly doing this for Hueristic, you fucktwat..... ) Fuck lambie bambie (aka lambie slayer) - he does not deserve any benefit of the doubt in terms of having supposedly "good intentions."

I mentioned my thoughts on this before, but it seems to me that the April 1, 2019 to June 27, 2019 price rise to $13,880 was similar to the mid-October 2015 to November 5, 2015 price rise from $300 to $500.  In 2015/2016 we got stuck below $500 until the end of May 2016.

Accordingly, we are still stuck below $13,880 - and could take several more months before getting back up there.

Of course, this whole price comparison matter is playing out differently than it did in 2015/2016, yet even though some of the curves are different, we still seem to be in a kind of compatible spot to where we were in early 2016.

BTC's price could shoot down to $5k or it could go up to $16k, and I still believe that BTC price moves in that range and even bouncing back and forth in that wide-ass range would not kick us out of being in a BTC price performance area that seems quite similar to early 2016.  If we bounce either direction out of the $5k to $16k price range before our May 2020 halvening, I will be somewhat surprised, but bitcoin continuously surprises, so in that respect, I would not be so surprised by another happening of another surprise in bitcoinlandia.

Do you need something other than this:

https://www.theice.com/products/72035464/Bakkt-Bitcoin-USD-Monthly-Futures/data?marketId=6137543


or this:

https://twitter.com/BakktBot

Don't get so excited, lambie bambie...    One pic at a time should be enough to establish renditions of the emotions.

Here's a current one of me as irritated, for whatever good that will do.

Focus, Lambie..... Focus ur lil selfie. 



You are letting your emotions get to you, which I suppose is typical with wannabe sorcerers like you.

 

Yep.  I have always learned that it is good to use bold or ALL CAPS for emphasis..... So, sure, you makes a lot of senses.   

I thought that I would sent you a current snapshot selfie, just to make you feel self-righteously better (and maybe you won't feel so compelled to shout with boldenings?)   

Oh my, lambie.  You are surely emotional recently.  

You might want to try focusing ur lil selfie rather than just making up shit in order to engage in some kind of lame strawman attempts that are not even based on facts or logic... furthermore, you are labelling me as a wannabe sorcerer, when that is specifically my criticism of you, you diversionary tactics dimwit.  I am criticizing you for being a wannabe sorcerer, so you proclaim that is what I am doing.    Can you work on a bit more originality and accuracy in your insult attempts..?  Of course, you are trying to divert from yourself by engaging in a divergence attempt.  

Regarding my system of buying, selling or hodling BTC, quite a while back, I found a balance that works well for me, and I believe that I have tailored such system to my own situation in a way that makes me quite comfortable.  So in that regard, I doubt that I need to make any large adjustments in terms of buying more BTC.

In fact, I probably have admitted previously what I perceive to be an overall dynamic in my BTC portfolio that causes me to continuously be a bit over-invested, and I kind of realized that I was over-invested in BTC since about mid-2015, but I also engaged in such over-investing on purpose, so that I don't feel bad when I sell a bit of BTC as the BTC price goes up which ended up (if it goes up) being a kind of justification hook for my authorizing myself to sell small amounts of BTC as the price goes up, and I won't feel bad about my skimming off those BTC to turn them into dollars.

Some folks who read my posts may have recognized that there can be inconsistencies with any of us attempting to find a BTC/fiat balance that is comfortable, so I have gone through times in which I made mistakes by not selling enough BTC on the way up and even doing the opposite of what I should be doing, such as buying BTC on the way up when I should be selling.

I have not been making those newbie emotional mistakes as frequently as I did in 2015/2016,  but I am NOT completely immuned from such doing the wrong thing and seemingly mistakes, either.

 My tentative conclusion remains that if anything I should sell more BTC on the way up.  

I have noticed that this cycle (referring to our drop from $19,666 to $3,122 and bounce thereafter), I have been selling way less BTC (as a percentage of my holdings) on the way up than I used to sell in the 2015 to 2017 uptrend, so I seem to be assuming that such a selling less practice allows me to have more BTC when the price finally goes up, which may or may not actually result in more BTC if the price does not shoot straight up, which surely it is not likely to do.  

Sometimes there could be needs to tweak whatever I am doing to allow me to sell more BTC then be able to buy more BTC on the way down with the proceeds from those sales - but I have already figured out that I am likely going to be just fine with the balancing of sales versus buys that I have already struck with myself in terms of how much fiat seems to end up stacking up when selling BTC on a regular basis on the way up, even when the BTC sell authorization amounts seem to be relatively small, and especially during periods that BTC's price is rushing upwardly without any meaningful correction(s).

So, there you go, Lambie, you fucktwat, an attempt from me to contextualize the situation and assert that there is no god-damned need for me to buy more BTC when I have more than enough.. and surely we can resume UPpity at any time, too.  Not that you care about actual facts, and just want to spout out some nonsense and suggest that WO participants should follow you and your purported smarter than everyone else posturings.

Hey my post, above, was not about the card, but instead about Lambie's ongoing annoyance acting like he knows something about the BTC price, blah blah blah...

Regarding the card, sure I appreciate that Basorexia put together some member cards for fun - and my card (here) had seemed to me to be a bit disjointed from my avatar to have a cat and coffee... but yeah he was trying to capture a typing theme..... yet it's like I got mixed up with Lauda or one of the other cat-oriented avatars, but hey I don't mind that Basorexia put some member cards together and attempted some artistic renditions.   

I read that thread, and maybe it was worth time to reinforce, that LFC is too nice, and that is NOT a plus in this situation... talking about winning a bet from someone who is obviously a disingenuine attention whore, aka Bossian.  

Escrow should be used, and the reason is to get the payment right away, otherwise you (LFC) are not getting shit from such scummy whiner as that.... all BIG words, and blah blah blah... but when rubber hits the road and it is time to pay up, will not be found already anticipating his own banning.  Of course, if he were to win the bet, he would be more than willing to collect your little charity that he does not deserve... and that is probably part of the reason that he was so eager to make a bet that he is likely to lose, anyhow.


Makes fatty look like a saint... .hahahahahaha... well not quite, but I suppose that I am trying to say that Bossian is more of a troll than fatty....so fatty must work harder...  


I merited him, too.  I think that he was on much better behavior, and he just unleashed his whiny ass trolling more recently... but I did see that link to his merit begging thread in August, and I had not noticed that previously... so yeah, a thrown away smerit to a disingenuine whiny troll loser.

That's a fantasy of your own perverted imagination - a way that you wished the world to be rather than what it is.  Accordingly, if you want that you should realize that it is something that you must "get" for ur lil selfie.      and share with the rest of us (less imaginative peeps), so we can witness how retarded you are with your ongoing playfulness.  

I will just agree to disagree, and I really don't buy it when people try to suggest that cats do not need to eat meat.

The first sentence of this below-linked article provides the overall position, that cats are obligate carnivores.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/veggie-cat-food/

I don't think that we need to discuss further, even though I know that some people feed their cats as if they were omnivores rather than carnivores.. I am not really inclined to debate a mostly off-topic issue and I don't really want to research, unless there is some kind of obvious explanation besides some people trying to rationalize their cats in a different way or even turn them into vegans or some other nonsense that occurs..

There are decently-sized differences between our odds for reaching upper $5ks as compared with lower $5ks.  I doubt that $5k is like butter, but you never know with BTC and breaking below $6k.. oofta...., so yeah, vagueness in the specifics of the purported prediction of bitcoin naysayers is nothing new when they want to proclaim that they were right in their negativity all along... blah blah blah.... but neither of those BTC price arenas of a 64% correction for the lower end or a 57% correction on the upper end seem to be a necessary condition if we have already had about a 53% correction down to $6,515 from our $13,880 local top from June 27.

Yeah, of course wishful thinking for bears and bitcoin naysayers to have more and more BTC price correction after we have already had decently-sized price corrections in a seemingly bull market that had been confirmed about mid-May (that is becoming a bit less clear about whether it is really and truly a bull market), but when is enough price correction enough for those hoping that bitcoin fundamentals are less strong than they seem to be and attempting to downplay the significance of any historical upwards BTC price moves.

I will concede that some of the outrageous upwards BTC price moves of the past few years had been of questionable causation or even symbols of over-exuberance.. let's include our 2017 move to $19,666 in that, and let's include our relatively recent moves to up to $13,880 (June 27) and up to $10,313 (October 25) in that.  

We witnessed that none of those relatively recent upwards BTC price moves were sustainable in terms of how bitcoin price history ended up playing out, but still each of those local tops are likely going to get blown through at some point in the future, whether we are talking days, weeks, months or years... Hopefully, for the sake of LFC the highest local top from two years ago does not take more than two years from here to get blown through again... Thinking about the reluctant 4-year fractal or the stock to flow model, the odds of getting blown through seem to be in his favor though.    Hopium?

Anyone who is actually betting on either lower $5ks or upper $5ks from here could have decent odds of success, maybe approaching 40% or 50%, especially since we remain still in relatively reasonable striking distance, and I am not even sure if I would blame such additional correction on BTC, because there still seems to exist a considerable amount of price froth remaining in several of the shitcoins because I have notice that they tend to get bouncity bouncity here and there whenever BTC's price moves in any kind of positive way, and there are likely a lot of snot-nosed 14 year olds, fantasylanders, scammers and delusional alt coin pumpeners expecting another shitcoin season that might NOT get delivered to them this calendar year or even in the coming 3 to 6 months - but surely, they are waiting and hoping and might need to get more REKKT.....

Our BTC price bounce from $4,200 to $13,880 (April 1 to June 27) shows us that we don't have to have down or stagnant BTC prices in order to continue to punish shitcoiners, even if just temporary punishment, but in any event, I know that even I would not overly rely on any BTC price corrections down to any part of the $5ks happening in order for BTC to be able to resume up, even though it still is totally not out of reason for purging to go on much longer than the relatively weaker hands are able to HODL, whether they are weak-handed shit coiners or weak handed BTCers.

Personally, I am thinking that currently it would be much safer to be at least 80% prepared for UPpity BTC, even if odds for the fulfillment of downity are likely quite a bit less than 80% (meaning that the odds for up from here are likely not much greater than 50/50, but call me a pussy for failing and refusing to give high odds on short term BTC price moves in either direction).  

Currently, my next BTC buy orders resume at a bit below $7k yet I would be quite content if those buy orders were to never fill.  

A few weeks ago, I would have been quite contented if my BTC buy orders below $7,300 had never been revisited or filled, but they were filled down to about $6,600-ish (actually at that time, I had them about every $200 of drop, so $7,200-ish, $7k-ish, $6,800-ish and $6,600-ish)..... not going to complain about picking up some more coins along the way, even though I would not mind resuming our breaks above those shorter-term local BTC price tops of $10,313 or $13,880, and maybe find some possible resistance before breaking through our next possible resistance in the $17,500 area, perhaps?  

Optimistic, maybe... $17,500 from here would be about a 2.25x price increase from here (referring to our about $7,700-$7,750 current price arena).  Greedy?  or just hopium for moar UPpity rather than downity?

Yep.  I recognize that you read my posts if I include ONLY three sentences or fewer, and if I split each of such sentence apart.  

Like Mic said, it is about receiving rather than giving, so in that regard there is a bit of irony in the card presentation that you cannot even choose your own bff.   Hahahahaha... Go figure!!!!

Yeah, right. 

The down is "crystal clear" until it is not....

hahahahahaha

 

I am sure that you realize given some of your previous statements some of the irony in having a kitty cat avatar, no?

Cats are surely killing machines, and from what I understand, they are way more carnivorous than dogs.   Dogs tolerate more variety in their diets including non-meats, but I think dogs probably need some meat in their diet, too.. not sure about that completely.., but cats on the other hand, from my understanding, have to have actual meat on a regular basis or they will be die. from malnutrition. 

Don't be such a hater, P_Shep!!!!!    Though, I am not going to hold it against you that you don't appreciate that I have sent you the most merit loves out of any other member.... Hey,.... it seems to be part of my current duty in (my could be bot?) life to share the merit love when members post something that makes some kind of sense to me, or resonates with me in some kind of way or whatever other quasi-random and illogical critieria I end up attempting to employ whether you hating on me or not....      hahahhahahahaha...

but if you hating too much, I might transition into my "grumpy kitty"^tm mode.. oh wait???  some other "non-specified" user already has a seemingly uncontrolled (and maybe sometimes intentionally unintentional) tendency to devolve into that under-appreciated quasi-irrational mode... .