That is fucking crazy to have sold that many BTC in 2015 - clearly 2015 was a BIG ASS dip in the market for pretty much the whole year....   Pretty much mid-$200s for the whole year (bouncing around some, of course).

Lack of delayed gratification.

If the short-sighted guy knew that he wanted a house, he could have sold some in 2014 in the $600 plus territory (maybe not all of them) or just waited the matter out until 2017.. or even taken out a mortgage... but whatever, its a form of short-sightedness in a decently strong kind of way.   The buy back of the house for only 50 BTC shows how god-damned difficult it would be to get anywhere close to 800 BTC ever again for a person with such a seemingly average budget.

Noted:  Jbreher admits to being one of the armagaeddon nutjobs.  Hopefully, you, jbreher, are not staking too much of actual value (more  than 10% - or even up to 20% in really seemingly stupid-ass crazy dedication)  on such an unlikely scenario.

Fair enough point, but I still would be hesitant to put all my eggs in one basket, no matter what my age.  Of course, if you are real young and barely just living on your own (moving out of the parent house or even living with parents and in the early stages of building your wealth), then in those cases, you usually do start with just investing in one thing while you are building your portfolio, and then you might start to expand out with the passage of time.  If you only have one investment because you are just starting to invest, then probably in those kinds of circumstances, you might start out with bitcoin... perhaps?  Those are somewhat individually tailored decisions concerning how diversified any person needs to be in terms of cash flow and projected expenses, too.




You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, and yeah, I agree that we should not be making the bulk of our investment decisions and/or allocations based on such unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there, such as roach and like-thinking acolytes of similar dumbass mindsets)

hahahahahaha

I love your "retarded" optimism, even though the odds do seem to be quite a bit against you, at the moment.

I am surely not going to complain or lose faith in the world of math if you happen to end up being correct.   

I have logical troubles to attempt to tie any BTC price speculation that I make to single factor events like that, including improbable ones like the one you mention.

We should be attempting to factor in more likely scenarios, even though unlikely scenarios are likely to happen too, and also I doubt that bitcoin's short to medium price performance is very much tied to various political scenarios, but if certain surprise scenarios do come about then those kinds of factors would need to be considered along with any other countervailing events that have come about merely because of the happening of the earlier event and also the resistance of status quo institutions to change, even if there were to be some changes in leadership.

Well, that is part of what makes bitcoin to be amongst the best asymmetric bets that are currently in existence.

As long as you don't leverage, then the most that you could lose is 100% of your investment, while at the same time the odds for UP are quite good (and I would say that the odds of losing 100% of your investment is quite low).




I will agree that the odds of the price going below $5k are much lower than they were just a short period of time ago, but surely $5k is not the bottom of how low bitcoin is possible to go, so therefore, $5k is no where near the worst scenario for bitcoin.



Surely, DCA is amongst the best of the possible strategies and also proven to be good with the passage of time; however, DCA is far from the only potentially profitable strategy.   DCA does end up being a decent strategy for people who might not have value, but they do have some kind of cashflow or an ability to generate a cashflow that they could use to get into bitcoin.  If someone has a lump sum that is already available, that person could reasonably could to invest lump sums and buying on dips and those kinds of different strategies, too.


$100k is not that crazy, especially given bitcoin's history and fundamentals.


Bitcoin, perhaps?


Not a complete joke, but has way less upside potential than bitcoin... even in the best of scenarios.



Not dead, but seems like the irresponsible policies of various governments is not going to significantly or materially change in the coming years, so if you hold onto fiat in the longer term, then your money is likely going to lose value over time.  Some fiats are worse than others in terms of retaining value.


I have some money in index funds.  Seems like a hedge to me.  They do not have any kind of certain trajectory, even though they do seem like a bubble, but who knows, may still serve as a bit of a hedge.



There are a variety of ways to invest in real estate.  Even though it is not very liquid, it is a pretty solid investment, especially if monetary policies are sloppy, and sometimes you can find value.. as long as you don't mind being tied down a bit, perhaps.


I don't advise them either, especially since they are an extra layer of risk beyond bitcoin because they are likely largely correlated with bitcoin, but some of them could pump with bitcoin or greater than bitcoin or at least greater than other investment options while being somewhat liquid like bitcoin (maybe not as liquid as bitcoin but some of them might be decently liquid).



I cannot disagree with any of these here points.

Of course, it is "extremely" possible, but guys are going to come to differing numbers in terms of probabilities.  You gave your numbers as 100%, which seems a bit much to me, btcbeliever gave his numbers as 80%, which seems a bit much to me, and I gave my own numbers, which I believe reflects my current thinking on the matter., which I consider to be bullish as fuck, even if you conclude that my current numbers seem to be low from your perspective.

I take it that you are referring to $100k in the next five years, and fuck that 80% is even a high expectation.

I might place mine at around 25% to 30% sure, and I would think that is even a fuckingly BIG ass expectation.. but I am just approximating, anyhow.


So god damned close to 4 digits.  I don't see how 4 digits does not happen, even if just briefly.  Maybe I am more than 80% certain that 4 digits will be touched upon, but only because currently we are so god damned close.  The local low within the past two hours, is only $27 away from 4 digits.



I know that I am not supposed to ask JSRAW, but JSRAW?  Wat r u thinkin?

Hahahahahaha

Finally you come out with a half-way decently good one.

Those previous ones were just lame, and seemingly forced.  this one has a kind of flow to it, including a possible disparaging (even though I don't agree with it) deeper meaning, too.


Who cares about your nonsensical diversions that are both attempting to emphasizing the wrong facts and furthermore coming to the wrong conclusions anyhow?  

Accordingly, you come to the wrong conclusions based largely on your ignoring and downplaying important and material subsequent events that happened in bitcoinlandia - largely emanating from events such as: 1) the August 2017 fall out of the segregated witness activation, 2) the failure of the segwit2x hardfork, 3) the amazing BTC price rise in late 2017 and 4) the mostly failure (except for the attempted bolstering of BIG BLOCKER FUD talking points) of the December 2017/January 2018 BIG Blocker spamming of the BTC blockchain.  

So who cares about your stupid-ass attempt to emphasize alleged "facts" that happened before, minimally, those above four outlined events, you dumbass.

That's a hilarious visual. 

One of the bull clowns, taking one for the team and then landing on his feet. 

If that kind of flippening were to happen to me, I would have been soon heading for the exit.  But then again, it has been years since I would have been even physically capable and/or risk-loving enough to engage in such usage of my meat wagon.

Yeah, you are correct, Pamoldar, that peeps have to prepare themselves for UP and DOWN BTC price movements if they are going  to be investing into BTC.. and not get so worked up about the whole BTC volatility matter.  Like several of us frequently assert:  One of the most guaranteed and likely things in bitcoin remains its ongoing volatility for at least several years into the future.

Fair enough.

You are right that none of us really know if BTC will reach $50k some day, $100k, $300k, $1million, or $10million, but all of those are within reasonable parameters of prediction, especially given where bitcoin is today, including its historical performance and fundamentals.  So preparing for grand upwards price movements might not be a "given", they are still decent asymmetric bets that seem to be more than prudent.. and likely even advisable for all people to put 1% or more of their networth into bitcoin (maybe absent someone who cannot create at least a 5 year investment timeline due to a short life expectation or some other reason that they need to keep their assets more liquid on a shorter timeline).

I agree that up and down fluctuations of 10% or more are more than reasonable; however, I wonder how prudent it is to be selling very much of your BTC stash with those kinds of expectations of a 10% or so downward BTC price movement that might not pan out.  Seems a bit risky.

Are you trading with just a small portion of your stash, or are you trading with more than 50% of it?  I agree that Ivomm may have responded a bit strongly, but there are surely a decent number of active bitcoin hodlers who have stupendous bitcoin returns and overall BTC portfolio performance without selling any BTC through their whole time investing in BTC.  I recall that there are even a decent number of actual studies that show that traders end up performing much worse than just buying and holding and accumulating BTC  even if that buying and  holding may have started at higher prices, such as towards the December 2017 top at $19,666.

I am guilty of some of the same hostility towards folks who are predicting downward BTC price movements, even when their predictions might be reasonable,  so anyone predicting downward BTC price movement and posting it in this thread should be prepared to back up their assertions a bit more than those predicting upwards... I think that it is the nature of investing in something like BTC, which is already under attack on a regular and ongoing basis by naysayers, FUD spreaders and alt coin pumpers.

Maybe I am a bit of a fud-dud?    I am feeling a bit bad about myself, and I have said this before.

I hope that bitcoin at least performs as well as the average of the rest of my various assets, at a minimum, which overall the average is about 5.5% per year over a bit over 30 years.  Of course, there have been some assets that have done better and some that have done worse, but my overall average is somewhat locked in place.

Actually, I have not really incorporated bitcoin into my historical average, because surely starting in late 2015, bitcoin's performance started to improve stupendously - yet still my overall portfolio, including the weighting of bitcoin's performance within my overall portfolio, did not really significantly start to skew the overall value of my portfolio until about early-to-mid-2017, so by then, both the size of the Bitcoin portion and the bitcoin price appreciation began to considerably skew the overall performance upwards, and probably if I knew how to perform a bit better calculations, I could probably incorporate those numbers into verifying the extent to which the overall performance of all of my investments improved merely because of the outlandish lopsided upside performance of BTC.

So, maybe I do need to up my numbers, and maybe even to estimate a new calculation of something like 8% per year or something like that?  but anyhow, I try to keep my expectations down, prepare for both positive and negative, and surely with those kinds of expectations, bitcoin has been outperforming any other aspect of my portfolio by leaps and bounds.

I don't really want to change my ways, because I think that my psychology and even my finances remain sound because of my creation of a historical practice that allows me to get rich and to stay rich with the passage of time, so I recognize that if younger folks have both less diversified assets and even a shorter investment history, then they might create systems that both expect higher returns, and perhaps they are going to be able to achieve them, too?  I am not sure if it is might be prudent for anyone to make sure not to put everything into bitcoin and to have his/her expenses covered - maybe even to be able to outline a year or more that cashflow is assured to cover all expenses (including emergency funds), and then maybe with the remainder value 100% of that remainder value could go into bitcoin.  that might work, but still does not seem healthy to expect 20x returns, even though 20x returns could happen, so in that regard, preparation for 20x returns is still accomplished even though expectations are not overly inflated which could cause a kind of recting, too, if expectations are too high.

Well, you are quite the bearish one to be expecting another nearly 25% drop in BTC price in only 4 days, and we have already had about 15% drop in BTC price in the past week.

Furthermore, a few weeks ago, we already had nearly 35% drop from the top to the bottom in this particular correction cycle.

Nonetheless, you are expecting more - even while we seem to largely be in a bull market, too.

I am not saying that your prediction could NOT happen, but I am saying that the odds seem to be a bit against you at this moment.

Oh my...

You asked me to not quote roach.

I said I would likely continue to do what I am doing, but i would consider the matter, which I did.

Don't try to suggest that either I made any assurances beyond that or that such assurances are even warranted or necessary for any of you goofballs trying to impose stupid-ass standards upon the free discretion of other posters.  




Question: Oh gee, golly whiz.  I wonder how many fucks JJG gives about this matter?

Answer: .00023619.  (aka much less than one fuck given)    

I understand, bitserve, that you are trying to give some benefit of the doubt to jbreher for his supposed hedging, but really, he is acting retarded as fuck with his various attempts to bring legitimacy to those bcash variants as either reasonable hedges or to act as if either of those bcash variants are actually legitimate projects beyond serving as either scam pump and dump vehicles, misinformation mechanisms and bitcoin attack vectors.  They can fuck off with any kind of description as a kind of possible legitimate hedge when it is just a fucking scam.

Lest we forget that jbreher is the  deflector, here.  More or less we were starting  to talk about matters a bit more relevant, and those were some of your holdings and the weight of your bags.

Who gives any shits about  your attempts to describe bitcoin as broken with a bunch of made up bullshit,  and even if true, bitcoin all fixed now..,,, because we got's ourselfies some segregated witness, and the BIG blockers are still holding grudges about that....      Go figure.

FTFY

Yep.  Some peeps seem inclined to throw their money away rather than having a lil fun with it.  What is wrong with this world?

It does not seem to be a bad idea to have an investment plan,  even if it is investing 100% of free money, as long as the person has enough money to cover all expenses, including emergency expenses, and also be prepared for the BTC price to go down, rather than up - and expect not to access your BTC for a decent amount of time - maybe 5 years (but if the price comes up to a better price, then of course you can adjust your plan and to cash out some earlier than 5 years because the market is performing better than expected.



I doubt that there is any need to compete against other guys (gals) or to suggest that your plan is better than theirs.

Hopefully, each person tailors his/her plan to his/her own situation and is able to figure out what is preferable.

Just like you are willing to wait 8 months or longer for your target, there are also plenty of BTC hodlers who are willing to wait 5, 10  or 20 years while employing an accumulation and HODL strategy that does not involve selling any BTC.. just continue to buy and accumulate.  Those people have historically become rich, and there is no reason to believe that the future might not have some similar patterns as the past. 

There is also a gamble with any kind of HODL and accumulate strategy that involves the possibility that bitcoin can  go to zero.  Of course, any prudent strategy should consider that possibility and be prepared to lose everything or to have some kind of cash out plan if such situation seems to be coming.. there are also some who are more than willing to hold to zero, if that is what happens.  Currently, BTC seems to have a whole hell of a lot more of them holders of last resort than any other currency, who will likely not only hold but will likely continue to buy all the way down to zero, which decreases the chances of BTC actually going to zero.

Great idea to buy with your income.


What are you going to do?  Are you borrowing?  Mortgaging the house?  selling everything in order that you can make 5x in a few years? 


You do know that 5x is not guaranteed, too, right?