This sounds more like Binance with another name, Commex!
If they wanted to "exit" Russia, they wouldn't just smoothly transfer all their user data to another "domain name" like this. With all the sanctions on Russia, they may want to maybe put a little distance between their main business and Russian users but at the same time not lose all that revenue.

Didn't they do a similar thing for United States? Of course the domain and the company name was similar in that case (Binance-US) under a California registered sister company called Bam Management US Holdings Inc. Whereas the original company is somewhere in Japan or Malta or Shanghai or ... lol

Ever since COVID pandemic with its recession, the predictability of the market has significantly diminished because the so called "cycles" trend was effectively broken. If you look at the chart, in 2019 we are seeing the repetition of the same 4-year cycle trend but with the pandemic starting it is stopped and then it crashes before it can turn into a full scale rally. Half of 2020 is bear market which is completely against the "projection".
Long story short, in a normal cycle price should have been half way to 6 digits already. But instead we are still stuck in $20k-$30k levels.

This is why I think the rallies will happen somewhat similar to before but the size of them are unpredictable so we can't know whether it is going to get to $200k as you mentioned in OP.

P.S. The first chart is a very interesting way of representing the cycles, thanks for sharing.

Such things only happen in the Western orchestrated coups where those involved are taking orders from foreign powers and they have to suppress the people in order to be able to rule over them. In case of the coups in Africa, from what I've seen, they are coming from the people themselves not some foreign powers which means if there would be any executions it would be execution of the foreign criminals and occupiers.

But of course we have to wait and see what the future holds. So many similar previous revolutions were shut down by the colonizers by mass murdering people in order to shut it down and revert the changes.

In practice if a transaction is included in a block, it is most definitely valid because of the financial incentive miners have to make absolutely sure they are not creating an invalid block and lose the reward for their work.
But technically a confirmed transaction can be invalid, the only way to know if a transaction is valid is if your node has validated it.

I feel like you are confusing 3 different algorithms with each other.
1. Encryption
This is a reversible operation where you create a "ciphertext" from a message using a password. The one with the password and the ciphertext can decrypt it to get the message.
Combining encryption with public key cryptography will give us the hybrid systems such as ECIES where you can encrypt a message using the other party's public key so that they can decrypt it using their private key.

2. Hashing
This is an irreversible operation where you compute a fixed size digest from an arbitrary size message. In bitcoin (addresses) we use hash functions to shorten the public key (or the arbitrary size script in pay to script addresses) and consequently the size of the address that needs to be copied.
It's purpose is not to "hide" the public key since there is no security risk in revealing your public key in an asymmetric cryptography. If there were, the algorithm would have been obsolete.

3. Digital Signature Algorithm
To put simply in the asymmetric cryptography algorithms you use a DSA to prove you own the private key to the revealed public key. For example in Bitcoin you sign a transaction with your private key (using ECDSA or ECSDSA) to satisfy the conditions in the smart contracts containing any of the OP_CHECK(MULTI)SIG(VERIFY) operations, so that you can spend the coins you have.

That's a good point. Despite what some of the propaganda has been saying about the situation in a couple of African countries, people are behind these changes and they believe that these changes can only happen with armed forces.
Besides the problem with most of these so called "civilian governments" is not wasn't that they didn't perform well. It's because they were either installed or backed by the West or both. So the only thing these governments did was to fulfill the colonizers' interests.

These things are not a simple and single cause and effect thing. They are more complicated than being summarized in one sentence.
The war is one piece of the chain that leads to the ongoing recession. For example rates hiked because energy prices keep rising and there is an energy shortage and at the same time there is all this printed money. The energy crisis is caused by the war while the money printing is partly the COVID result and partly bad policies. The combination of these two will cause very high inflation if they let the interest rates loose... so they choose lesser of two evils and increase interest rates at the cost of causing recession.

Even when it comes to bitcoin, the effects are not as simple as "we have recession so bitcoin falls". For example part of the reason is because the "debt" market where US sells its debt and pays "high interest" to those bag holding it, is currently sucking the money out of all markets including bitcoin's.

The COVID recession is over, the new recession due to the NATO-Russian war is the one that's affecting the economy and bitcoin price.

Bitcoin is not a token, it is a currency.

Check out the speculation board for that.
In short if you check the short 14 years of bitcoin market history you can see that we have periods like this where price keeps going sideways without any major rises or drops. The important thing is that the adoption is growing and Bitcoin is still the same decentralized censorship resistant currency it ever was. Which means the future growth is expected to be the same as before.

These days we have two things to look forward to. The halving and the failed interest rate games governments play to keep inflation down by worsening recession. As inflation starts rising, bitcoin price should too.

Bitcoin supply is constantly increasing. The thing that decreases is the rate of it. Meaning after the halving the rate at which new coins are added to the total supply is decreased by 50%. That can also mean less new coins being sold by the miners every day which means less sells pressure on the market. And we all know that less sell pressure means easier rise as there would be "less resistance".

So it is not just "positive feelings" that leads to rise after the halving.

No, never. All they can do is to make it harder for hackers to get to them and only reduce the risk. Otherwise it is impossible to make any system "impregnable". Just look through the hack news (in general) around the globe; you'll see various hacks happening every day.
For example one of the most recent news I saw was a large number of classified US Military, Defense Companies and Satellites, etc. has been hacked years ago and hackers had full access to all that classified information all this time without anybody even knowing!

Of course some of the cases you can find are just pure negligence and incompetency, specially some of these "token swap platforms" that are falsely advertised as DEX are just too terrible and too weak to not-get hacked like this. They're just a bunch of code thrown together to create a scam platform to trade scams and make "bets" on shittokens.

The way out of this is to learn how to deal with economic hardship not to buy and hold bitcoin hoping to get rich! For example if someone is having a hard time "feeding themselves" they should rethink their life decisions, get a better job and make better investments in their lives.

I know this is a bitcoin forum but introducing bitcoin as the solution to all economic problems is wrong.

Investors should never bother checking the charts since investment requires long term commitment. It is the trades who get involved in the market in short term who need to check the charts and we know that the sideways market is one of the trends that they like the most since they can make profit in a moderately fixed range where they can predict the top and bottom easier.

I used to be like that in my "youth" and it was a good thing to be stressing about these things, at least for me. It made me learn the value of money and most importantly to plan ahead financially speaking.
You've already the first step correctly by thinking about these things but of course you have to try not to get overly anxious. Don't worry about making mistakes, after all you're at the beginning of your journey in life and even mistakes are a valuable experience.

I can't tell you what to do because the situation is different in different countries and different times. But I can tell you what I did.
I basically went on a very "strict financial mode" where I wrote down all my little expenses and little incomes. I worked hard and earned as much money as I could then made wise investments while controlling my expenses. That helped me maximize the amount of money I saved up (income, interest, passive income, profit).

I have to emphasize that writing down stuff helped a lot, as it is not enough to just be "careful about expenses". It helps a lot to be able to visualize and analyze your expenses (and incomes). For example at the end of the month you can look back and see for example you wasted money somewhere that could be avoided or better spent. I even have a little excel file that dates back 20 years
Not to mention that it helps you to stay organized a lot better and if you set targets for yourself, it also helps you reach those targets and feel "optimistic" about your future as you would be going through life according to your plan or at least closes to your plan as possible.

Speaking of planning ahead and setting targets one of the things I did was to figure out what would be the biggest expense I would have in my life and in my country it is rent. For example today as an engineer if I had to rent an apartment specially in the capital, that would eat at least 50% of my salary.
Knowing that, my goal became to eliminate that cost. The solution was to buy a house so that became the plan. I eventually saved up enough money to be able to buy my first apartment. It didn't have to be a fancy one or a big one but it helped me eliminate a large expense. That's extra money in my pocket which I were able to save or invest to improve.

That's not new though. "Economic hardship" has been part and parcel of our world, even though from time to time we see a longer period of stability (eg. after 2008 disaster up until 2019-ish) which makes people forget what's happened before and what's coming (or rather repeating).
You also shouldn't expect to become wealthy in short time, as I said nothing has changed. It just takes hard work and wise decisions.

I'm not saying that "US will lose power soon", I say US has been losing power for years and it is now only speeding up.

Take dedollarisation for example. Something that people denied is happening 1-2 years ago and we only keep hearing about in the mainstream media recently has been happening for at least 15 years. It's easily seen on statistics too. 15-20 years ago US dollar was used in 75-85% of the entire international trades. Today that is barely reaching 50% and is dropping fast.
Not to mention that even Bitcoin falls under the category of dedollarisation and also was created 14-15 years ago.

Same with military, weapons, influence, etc. that you mentioned.

You see inflation and capitalism didn't just hurt regular people and industries. It's hurt everything. For example a simple UAV costs a shit ton of money to manufacture inside US, and the capitalist ridden companies have turned into the biggest scammers like Lockheed Martin that is more of a thief at this point rather than a solid aerospace company.
Off the top of my head I could mention the story of manufacturing The Beast aka RQ170 that you can read in books like Drone Wars. In short hundreds of billions of dollars were wasted Lockheed Martin for R&D on failed projects for years to lead to the final "successful" one that created what US considered to be the most advanced stealth aircraft. In its first attempt to spy on Iran back in 2011, not only it was easily detected by the Iranian defenses but also it took them seconds to hack it, take full control and land it safely inside Iranian soil. They then decrypted its data, reverse engineer its technology and mass produced it at ridiculously cheap prices!
This extends to the similar aircraft like B2 Bombers and of course the so called "stealth" fighters like F35. And US Airforce is supposed to be strong and advanced lol.

There are numerous examples I could give in other fields. Take influence for example. 5 years ago nobody could imagine Saudi regime (the 51st state) going against Petrodollar let alone threatening US with "economic devastation". Today they're doing it and worse!

I mentioned a couple of reasons why they can't like volatility but also your own statements could be used as another reason why they can't. A country that is so underdeveloped that doesn't have a banking system, also doesn't have a lot of other infrastructure like internet connection/coverage. Which means using bitcoin is not even possible in such a country at large let alone be able to solve any of their economical problems.

Your question is like asking if space travel to Jupiter is easier or to Saturn (FYI Saturn is farther)! The answer is that it doesn't matter because we can't perform either one of these.

In case of Bitcoin, you can not "hack" a single key just like you can't "hack" a multisig but of course technically harder since it normally requires more than one key. However, the security you would have depends on how you use them. For example a single key generated on an airgap system and kept offline and safe will provide a far higher level of security compared to a multi-sig generated on a single online PC running Windows OS!

As for Shamir algorithm, I'd worry more about its implementation rather than whether you should use it or not. Since it is not very popular and it technically is for "secrete sharing" not secret storing, a broken implementation could lead to losses.

Usually when a thief invades your home they are going to steal a lot of far more valuable objects than going through a bunch of papers to steal your seed phrase which they may not even know what it is! To put simply your TV is more valuable in their eyes compared to a piece of paper so it is their target.

But of course you can always add encryption (a simple AES256 encrypt would work) or the lazy way is to add an extension word (aka the password) that you either memorize or keep elsewhere. This would make it harder to steal coins by only having the seed phrase.

Correct me if I'm wrong but that sounds like a more centralized version of Tor project as it relies on the Mullvad company which is commercial VPN service. What's worse is that Mullvad is based on Sweden which is the addition to the Five Eye "spy network" that are out to invade your privacy.
https://www.privacytools.io/guides/how-is-the-five-eyes-intelligence-alliance-related-to-your-privacy

Tiny prices such as $38k are a stones throw from the current price. All it takes is a start of the rally to reach something like $38k in about a week or two. The problem is the start however. Also keep in mind that anything below the previous ATH is technically not a very strong resistance as long as the rising momentum is there, it doesn't have to be a strong momentum either.

"Countries" can not do that, individuals may.
On bigger scales bitcoin can not help much both because it still has a small market and also its price is too volatile. For example Turkey as a country with huge inflation (80%+) and a negative foreign reserve that is in tens of billions of dollars needs to print a billion dollar a day these days to cover the expenses. Nobody can make that much profit from bitcoin to help do that!