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141  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 02, 2020, 09:11:53 AM
probably really got going when patient zero from the wuhan virology lab diarrhea bombed the toilet at the crowded wuhan wet market

... shall we have the asian hygiene standards discussion again? "Bum guns" takes on a whole new meaning. Or troll out "racist" labels to shut down practical discussion. Florence Nightingale pioneered basic hygiene standards in the Crimean war 1800's ffs, asia still hasn't really caught up with the ethos of that. You'll be happy to know your ass is fresh and clean as you're drowning in your own lung-fluid  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
Smile when you say that  Grin Grin Grin
142  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 01, 2020, 03:06:05 AM
asian culture has very crowded conditions and abysmal hygiene standards, (spitting everywhere, uncovered sneezes, hacking, washing hands infrequently, etc)

What hole did you crawl out of?
Asians clean their asses with actual water after taking dumps, instead of taking a piece of paper and smearing the shit around.  Have you used a toilet in Southeast Asia?  There's a hose with a spray nozzle.  We expats like to call them "bum guns."  It's fkn great to have a CLEAN ASS.
Asians take their shoes off indoors.
Asians don't go around spitting, sneezing and whatever your perfervid racist imagination requires.  Most of them cover their mouths just to use a toothpick, out of politeness.

143  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: January 30, 2020, 06:15:02 AM
In December 2018 masterluc wrote on his PentarhUdi trandingview account that bitcoin was
" leaving straight-style log trend while continue to grow in SQRT-style trend"

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/


This is well worth pursuing.  But I don't think Tradingview has the right tools for it. Masterluc just glommed a couple of vague swoopy curved lines on the chart.  Yet we can do much better.

I went to bitcoincharts(dot)com to download the price history for Mt Gox and Bitstamp, and concatenated them in a LibreOffice Calc spreadsheet for a continuous price history going back to 2010.
Then I ran iterated quadratic regressions.  The parabola has a horizontal axis of course, which means treating time as a function of price.  Once you get the quadratic, easy enough to solve it, giving a conventional graph with price as a function of time.
results here

https://hardworkandlowpay.wordpress.com/charts/

After deriving the parabola for the line of support (red on the chart), I found that by shifting that curve 45 months in time, it just touched the last two big blow-off tops; you can see this line in green on the chart.  The two parabolas are essentially identical, sharing the same axis and focal length.  The nested parabolas never intersect.
144  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2020, 03:57:16 AM

Personally, I've been noticing the estimates for the bubble tops decreasing. I recall in 2018, some popular tradingview and twitter guys were claiming we were just taking a breather on the way up to $400K. Now there seems to be a prevailing sentiment that we'll top out <=$100K on the next bubble. Who knows? There are so many different prediction models that are all supported by past data, but give wildly different future results.

Those peaks represent transients.  With very few data points, less than half a dozen in bitcoin's entire history, it's hard to gin up the confidence to make predictions about the magnitude of the next peak, if any.

In contrast, there's underlying support in the form of a parabola with a horizontal axis, which has dozens or hundreds of data points (red curve, below).
It's a pleasant coincidence that a time-shift of the support curve produces another curve that just touches the tops of the bubbles that followed the first two halvings (green curve).



Extrapolating the timing of the halvings predicts the next peak between $150k and $200k.

145  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 30, 2019, 12:27:28 PM
Looks like we're in the makings of a bit of a slow rise for BTC at the moment. Hoping to wake up to something... interesting.

Good night, brothers.
You are correct.  The bottom is in.  Corn won't dip much at all below the current price.  And volatility may be low for nearly a year.  Slow rise.




146  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 24, 2019, 09:55:48 AM
The red and green traces show the transform of bitcoin's price through the quadratic on the vertical axis. The blue curve is hopium  Wink
The hopium curve bottoms at the halvings and shares their periodicity.
147  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2019, 03:26:41 AM
Speaking of parabolic...

148  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 06, 2019, 08:13:01 AM
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5198154.msg53272496#msg53272496
 

149  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 02, 2019, 11:05:03 PM
I looked at the bunch of charts this afternoon and PlanB/digitalik one's continue to impress.
The question is: if this is basically a co-integrated chart where btc is almost pre-destined to go to about 55-100K after this halving, then when to expect the rally?
Last time we were lagging in June/July 2016 at $500-700/btc when "theoretical" value jumped to about $4K.
It probably represented the best entry point as far as short term risk/reward ratio looking backwards a few years.
However, since now these charts were wildly circulated, one can expect a run that might peak actually at the halving or shortly thereafter, like in Nov-Dec 2020 instead of Nov-Dec 2021?
Hoping that price stays flat and there would be some instrument to buy btc in the retirement account. Don't want to "invest" in anything else there at the moment.
If blow-off tops continue the phase relationship established with the last two halving cycles. then we're looking at late 2021.
See my post, "secular and cyclic model with forecast"
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5198154.msg52962479#msg52962479
150  Economy / Speculation / Re: secular trend and cyclic model on: November 02, 2019, 10:43:19 PM
reserved
151  Economy / Speculation / secular and cyclic model with forecast on: November 02, 2019, 10:43:04 PM
On the first bitcoin price chart below, the red and green parabolas are equivalent, with the green parabola shifted to the left 45 months.  
The red parabola is defined by

D = 114.4 * ( 1.65 + log (usd price) )^2               Where D is days elapsed since Sept 8, 2010.

Map time onto time.  As illustrated by the yellow line, 2014-07-01 maps to 887 days:  the horizontal distance between that day's data point and the support line.



The transformation abstracts price data from the chart and makes the chart linear.  Now we examine bitcoin’s cyclical behavior and model it.  
The function shown in yellow below has a period of 1390 days, roughly bitcoin’s halving time.



Move back to the USD domain



and extrapolate.



Another view of the time transform:

152  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 21, 2019, 03:54:52 PM
I don't know why, but I now feel the urge to post another one:



Source: Bitcoin’s natural long-term power-law corridor of growth

This is an uberbullish log-log graph (log axis on values, log axis on time):

Quote
It predicts that the price will not reach $100 000 before 2021, but it also predicts that the price will not be lower than $100 000 by 2028. It predicts that the price will not reach $1 000 000 before 2028, but also that the price will not be lower than that after 2037. The model predicts ever increasing prices, although at a slower and slower rate.


Hope you like, Mic


Looking at the graph the maximum price before 2021 is well under 100k (90k).

Other than that: cool graph. Seems to be a bit more on the conservative side when compared to the past.
The concept of putting time on a log scale is... interesting.
Generally, you would use a log scale for something that accumulates, grows or shrinks.  Such things as stock and commodity prices, the mass of a pile of rocks, and absolute temperatures Kelvin don't exhibit negative values; they have a well defined zero point, and positive values are the only values to consider.  It makes sense to use logarithms on scales where zero is fixed, accounting for changes in proportion.
Time doesn't have this proportional quality.  One doesn't say there was twice as much time in the year 2000 as there was in the year 1000.  And to use a log scale at all, you have to set a point for time zero.
Coinmonks didn't state what point he uses as time zero for his log axis, which led me to do a little mathematical forensics on his chart to find out.
You'll notice that the distance from 2011 to 2012 is the same as the distance from 2013 to 2015.  so:
(2012-tz)/(2011-tz) = (2015-tz)/(2013-tz)
and
time zero = 2009

edit:  InTheLoop made a comment on Coinmonk's Medium post that bears directly on the matter of defining bitcoin's time zero for the price model

Thanks Harold. You are using time in days since 2009, likely based on bitcoin’s genesis block on 3 Jan 2009. However, in the beginning there wasn’t a great deal of trading and thus price discovery,
so it’s natural to introduce the starting day as an additional parameter in the model. Together with slope and intercept this leads to a three-parameter power-law model, exactly what I have described in my article.
That shift parameter then turns out to be 312 days before 17 July 2010 (the origin of your and my price data), so based on current full historic data, bitcoin’s starting date of the power-law is estimated at 8 September 2009.
Using such 3-parameter fit will increase the quality of the fit even further.
See: https://medium.com/@intheloop/when-moon-rational-growth-ranges-for-bitcoin-ffaa94c9d484
153  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 27, 2019, 06:42:07 PM

Greta is a psychopath.

She has Asperger's, a mild form of autism.
154  Bitcoin / Mycelium / Re: Mycelium Bitcoin Wallet on: May 13, 2019, 09:12:41 PM
When I make a send from the mycelium wallet for a dollar amount, an amount shows up under transactions in white characters.
For example, today I typed in $700 and clicked send.  701.46 USD shows up in the transactions tab in white characters.
Thinking 1.46 was the fee, I decided to do some arithmetic and divided the BTC fee by the total amount of the transaction, and multiplied by 700.
It was a little bit off.
Is it 701.46 because the fee (135 sat/byte) was equivalent to $1.46 at the time of the send (3:40:39 PM EDT May 13, 2109)?
Or did the amount change because I waited a minute between typing the amount and clicking send?
This is the numbers
Inputs       1.6996
Outputs     1.61065618
                0.08875825
Miner fee   0.00018557
155  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 17, 2019, 10:18:37 PM
..., the client will scan the entire blockchain, which is about 73 GB.

In about a month, this 70GB will reduce into 25GB.
What's the command to prune the blockchain?
156  Bitcoin / Mycelium / Re: Mycelium Bitcoin Wallet on: October 18, 2018, 06:43:05 AM
I hear that Mycelium supports segwit, and I have a question.
I have a mnemonic seed to an HD wallet that I've been using for some time.  At first I was using Mycelium.  Then I imported the seed into Samourai.  After using the wallet in Samourai for several transactions,  the unspent outputs now include, in addition to legacy addresses (which begin with 1), several segwit addresses (which begin with 3).
Now when I look at the Mycelium wallet from the same seed, it only sees the legacy addresses.  Mycelium doesn't see the segwit 3-addresses.
Perhaps somebody can enlighten me.  I thought that if Mycelium supports segwit, it ought to see all those segwit addresses.
Mycelium v2.11.1.21
157  Other / Off-topic / Re: Google Authenticator question on: July 30, 2018, 07:24:08 AM
Maybe I'm late to the party, but I've been searching for a thread where I can post a specific question about Google Authenticator, and this thread looks like a good bet.
I am looking for an application that I can access from a pc, without downloading anything, where I can input a Google Authenticator code, and get the one-time password.
Something like this:  http://gauth.apps.gbraad.nl/    would be ideal, except that it only works with sixteen-character codes.  If you input a Google Auth key that's longer than sixteen characters, that app puts out the wrong OTP.  A lot of services use Gauth keys that are longer than sixteen characters: Gmail does, for example, as do several crypto exchanges.  So I'm looking for an online app that gives correct OTP for any Google Auth code, not just the raw 16-character keys.
Why, you might ask, would I want to find a web-based application where I have to paste in the secret key for a Google Authenticator account?  Partly out of curiosity, but I can also describe a situation where it makes some sense to do that.
The scenario:  I am overseas, I go to the American Consulate, which has free computers.  But the consulate requires visitors to surrender all electronic devices.  So I have to log into my Gmail without my smartphone.  I need a web based app where I can type in the key of the Google Authenticator account that secures my Gmail and get the OTP -- then I can log in.  I am willing to take the associated risk, which is fairly minor, in order to access my Gmail.
And actually, this is my situation today.
158  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: November 11, 2017, 05:17:30 PM
People make such a big deal about God.
159  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 31, 2017, 06:15:28 PM
Bitcoin's biological analogues extend beyond animals like the honey badger, into the plant kingdom.

Meet the Overcompensators, Plants That Get Tougher and Meaner When Attacked



Damaging some plants sets off a molecular chain of events that causes them to grow back bigger and produce more seeds and chemical defenses simultaneously.

If plants could be stars in a cowboy film, the scarlet gilia would be one of the meanest wildflowers west of the Mississippi.  You can find it standing tall among the sagebrush on mountainsides, its red flowers blazing. Drought can’t always stop it. Shade won’t faze it. And when mule deer and elk start grazing on it early in the season, it comes back bigger and stronger, with more defenses and a posse of new plants.


https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/20/science/plants-defenses-overcompensators.html
160  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 24, 2017, 12:10:00 AM
Added: Hey guys what's the coin you can register domains with? I have one expired today (never did anything with it) and the company (1+1) tried to autocharge me for renew that I didn't give permission for so paypal put a fraud alert in on them but I still want to keep the domain name and I'd like to try registering with a CC.
you can register a .bit domain with namecoin.
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