Due to the preorder cycle, it will take 3-4 months for the feedback of difficulty to impact buying behavior. So difficulty continues ramping up way beyond your expectation, and prices in the secondary markers collapse. The overshoot might be moderated by a major supplier going bankrupt and not delivering but otherwise expect your year end prediction to be reached in July.
You're making assumptions about assumptions hereon buying behavior based on the huge price jump in Q4 last year. You can't automatically factor in that happening again, so as soon as the difficulty hits about 15000 x 10e6 the current (yet to be delivered) $3/GH rigs will never be profitable and it's not going to take a genius to see the trend, The companies that have their own asics are in a slightly different boat but even they have to look at RI and they might not be quite so keen to load in capacity which might not make their ROI target. Time will tell what approach is right, neither of us have a crystal ball. Time may tell, but I can already tell who is talking his book. Hello folks, greetings from Novello Technologies Ltd in the UK.
We'll shortly be launching a funding campaign to finance the development of a family of low cost, high performance mining rigs.
How does $1 per Gigahash/second (or less) sound to you? But before you groan "not another mning asic startup" wait until you see our plan, it's not what you might expect.
Gordon
Yes, it's not exactly a secret what we plan to do, but we plan to do it right. We have indeed developed a behavioral model to try to predict what the market for rigs might be, but since we won't be delivering anything until August it's no advantage to suggest that some of the estimates other have submitted might be a bit too high. Scare tactics, if you will. Why would anyone want to do such a thing? If we're suggesting that the difficulty might not be so high, it's going to benefit our competitors (assuming we actually get to the competing stage and that's not a foregone conclusion) who will get more people ordering if they think they might have a chance of profitability on their purchase. So I'm a bit unclear what book you think we might be talking/selling. One that tells the truth, perhaps? |
|
|
|
It definitely sounds interesting. One recommendation I would have is to make sure you have things in stock and ready to go before you start accepting orders. Too many companies are accepting pre orders and failing to deliver, or delaying over and over...
Launch it right and you will have many many satisfied customers and word will spread.
Yes, that would be nice but we don't have a spare $3m lying around and the banks won't touch anything related to Bitcoin. We do things a bit differently to the other companies, for a start we have 120+ years collective of experience in actually building complex electronic systems all the way from consumer through to Mil/Aero. In short - we know how to plan projects so that they're delivered on tome and on budget. We do need some portion of the payment up front - there's no use trying to pretend other wise, but it will be somewhere in the region of 33 - 40% (and of a much smaller payment for equivalent performance) We're also not going to screw people on price. The margins rig suppliers make are outrageous. To put this in some kind of context, we'll be offering a 4TH rig for well under US$4,000, still be making a fair profit AND paying the development costs out of it. If we can do it, so can any other company. That is, if they don't pay themselves huge salaries. Thanks for your post though. Hope we might interest you in our wares at some stage. |
|
|
|
If you had just finished sending out a bunch of buy-out cheques to customers hoping that they would take the settlement but almost no one is falling for it, what would you do? You need to create fear of loss in people; that if they don't get out and cash those cheques right now there won't be anything left.
The offer of buy out cheques is just a delaying tactic. The cheques may be bad, and then the wrangling about why will cause more delays. |
|
|
|
And you would do that basing on the informations given to you by an internet troller?
Not necessarily, they are quite happy to take information from a wide variety of sources who are in many cases anonymous. Money Laundering is taken very seriously nowadays, if Hashfast are up to no good then it'll come out very quickly. Transfers to offshore accounts from US companies or individuals come under a lot more scrutiny now than a few years ago. A genuine buyer who reported a 'concern', and the key word here is 'concern', not an accusation, that company funds had been transferred offshore will most certainly be taken seriously. |
|
|
|
I work @ HashFast. (Just doing it for the paycheck, hate this fucking piece of shit company) Ask me anything  Who at hashfast was the troll behind iCEBREAKER? I would think that de Castro How do i know this for sure is a scam, beside working for HF? Because all the money thatīs left is sitting on a account belonging to a bank in a country which first letter is S. (Not in the states anymore) If that's indeed the case then perhaps some disgruntled customers in the US might want to contact their local FBI office to express 'concerns' that money laundering is taking place, especially considering the large amount of Bitcoin payments that Hashfast received coupled with large offshore transfers? It's pretty much guaranteed to get attention.........much quicker than the courts. |
|
|
|
|
Hi,
First of all let me say how sorry I am to hear about your situation. Can I ask where you live? The reason I'm asking is that the only way I can see you getting your bitcoins back or your machine is to turn up at their facility and ask for it in person. Flights to the US are pretty cheap just now, and if you could persuade a couple of other buyers to arrive at the same time - preferably with a local journalist - then you might get some action, especially if you keep turning up for a few days.
Hope you get a resolution one way or another.
|
|
|
|
A judge won't decide who's wrong or right in the case you outline, they will just issue a default judgement, which is what happened. Ok, you are right. Yet to failed to show up, and you should have received some certified mail that notified you of what was gonna happen. Right? So how is it possible that you didn't show up by accident? Maybe they sued the wrong BFL? Like HF that already has at least 3 different companies? I'm not sure how I can rephrase it so that it's more clear. We were never notified that there was a case pending against us. The first we learned of it was through the forum. If we had been notified, you can be sure we would have shown up. But enough with derailing Hashfasts' thread, please continue the regularly scheduled posting here. I just wanted to debunk the cut-and-paste Searing keeps posting, which is full of misinformation. I'll post again next time he does it as well, but otherwise, I have nothing else I care to contribute to this thread at the moment. Perhaps you might to give the forum some insight as to what you think might have gone wrong at Hashfast and how BFL would deal with a similar situation if it arose in the future? |
|
|
|
I've calculated the 50% loss basing on a 5 board delivery per BJ and an hashrate per board of 550GH/s (and an avg of 90%/month of difficulty increases, the default now at mining.tgb)
However since that HF should start shipping sometime like today for that to happen, we are talking about dreams.
Hi, I'm not from the US and so I don't know how close their company law is to it's UK equivalent. but I think that your chances of getting any 'consequential' damages out of them, ie losses you think you have incurred as a result of their non delivery of your rig, are next to zero. Most courts wouldn't consider such a claim unless there were very specific clauses in the purchase agreement (like the ones for Boeing's Dreamliner from the airlines). For anyone that paid in Bitcoins, there's another complication as bitcoin isn't recognised as a currency (yet) so a court might not actually recognise that a 'legal' payment had taken place, unless you got a confirmation that your order had been received and that the full amount due in US dollars, not bitcoin, had been paid. Has anyone actually received a rig yet? |
|
|
|
A dedicated ASIC will always beat an FPGAtoASIC unless you go one node lower. FPGAtoASIC is faster and easier to develop, gets you out before the competition, but costs more per chip. Just my suspicion. Not proof.  I'm sure I read somewhere a while back that the KNC solution is an FPGA conversion, and that would fit with it's power consumption. Going to 20nm at this time is a mistake - the process isn't fully 'productionised' yet and might take another 6 months before yields are stable. the NRE is truly horrendous and same for the wafer costs. You always pay a premium for the newest process. As a result, newer 28nm designs will easily beat their 20nm one in cost efficiency but since they've already sold a ton of them, I doubt very much that they'll care. Their customers might though. |
|
|
|
Due to the preorder cycle, it will take 3-4 months for the feedback of difficulty to impact buying behavior. So difficulty continues ramping up way beyond your expectation, and prices in the secondary markers collapse. The overshoot might be moderated by a major supplier going bankrupt and not delivering but otherwise expect your year end prediction to be reached in July.
You're making assumptions about assumptions hereon buying behavior based on the huge price jump in Q4 last year. You can't automatically factor in that happening again, so as soon as the difficulty hits about 15000 x 10e6 the current (yet to be delivered) $3/GH rigs will never be profitable and it's not going to take a genius to see the trend, The companies that have their own asics are in a slightly different boat but even they have to look at RI and they might not be quite so keen to load in capacity which might not make their ROI target. Time will tell what approach is right, neither of us have a crystal ball. |
|
|
|
I did also a forecast, but only based on history:
Development of difficulty since 15.09.13
Dates days to solve 2016 difficulty increased in %
15.09.13- 26.09.13 11 112628549 --
26.09.13-7.10.13 11 148819200 32,13
7.10.13-17.10.13 10 189281249 27,19
17.10.13-26.10.13 9 267731249 41,48
26.10.13-06.11.13 11 390928788 46,02
6.11.13-18.11.13 12 510929738 30,07
18.11.13-30.11.13 12 609482680 19,29
30.11.13-11.12.13 11 707408283 16,07
11.12.13-22.12.13 11 908350862 28,41
22.13.13-03.01.14 12 1180923195 30,01
03.01.14-14.01.14 11 1418481395 20,12
14.01.14- ?? 1789546951 26,15
= average time to solve 2016 Blocks: 121/11 = 11
= average difficulty increase: 316,94 / 11 = 28,81 %
Forecast
dates days for solving 2016 difficulty increased in %
14.01.14-25.01.14 11 1789546951 26,15
25.01.14-05.02.14 11 2305115427 28,81
11 2969219182 28,81
11 3824651228 28,81
11 4926533247 28,81
11 6345867476 28,81
11 8174111896 28,81
11 10529073533 28,81
11 13562499618 28,81
11 17469855758 28,81
11 22502921202 28,81
11 28986012801 28,81
11 37336883088 28,81
17.06.14-28.06.14 11 48093639106 28,81
I was to lazy to put in all the dates :-D
We've spent a lot of time on a Behavioral Model to try to make some sense of what's going on. It pretty soon became clear that there is tipping point where miners will stop buying new kit, because they simply will never make a profit. The difficulty can't keep going up exponentially as a result (unless the Bitcoin value follows the same trend).Our prediction shows difficulty in mid-June at around 18,000,000,000, 25,000,000,000 by end 2014. At that time a TH will earn about $400 a month and eat a good portion of that in electricity costs. As a result, it's worth less than $1.3 per Gigahash/sec. |
|
|
|
Hi!
HighNoon? Sounds ominous.....Thanks for your hi, hello to you too. Just avoid any gunfights! |
|
|
|
Hello there!
And hello to you too, hope you enjoy using the forum. |
|
|
|
Sounds promissing, some questions: 1) Entry price and scale of your product 2) your website mentions already sold high end mining ricks, is there proof for that?  Hi, thanks for your interest. I'm unsure of what site you're looking at, ours is still in development. We haven't made an asic yet never mind selling high end rigs! Entry level pricing for a 250 GH/sec system will be around $349 on average. Higher spec ones, up to 4TH will come in well under $1/GH/sec. And they won't be available until nearer the end of July 2014, earliest. |
|
|
|
Thank you for your reply! I think you may have prompted the answer in my mind - if the coin was using specific instructions from the ARM processor, it would be restricted in that sense, however people could still get around this using similar systems (like Hackintosh running Mac on generic PC). I really like your fpga idea. Thanks, but you'd never get 256 core on an FPGA - it would have to be an asic. It's an interesting idea though, isn't it? With sufficient volume sales behind it from miners of different coins it could be made reasonably cheaply. Need to look into this a bit more, I think. |
|
|
|
|
Been trying to find some explanation of what the Scrypt algorithm actually does in a simple form like a flowchart, but to date have had no success. Does such a thing exist? I get the principle, just not the actual implementation. Any help or resources appreciated.
|
|
|
|
Hello there!
I am looking for advice on a question I have; is it possible for a coin to be hardware specific. Eg could a coin be made that can only be mined on the Raspberry Pi and if it is possible could you provide links? I have searched but not found anything relevant.
I understand most people want a coin that can mine on anything, I am thinking more about the 'fun' side of things.
Thanks
It's unlikely, indeed almost impossible as any crypto coin will rely on general mathematical functions rather than the instruction set of a particular processor. Any coin can be mined on a Pi or any other general purpose computer, trouble is that said computers are too slow to mine effectively nowadays. Taking your comment about people wanting a coin that can mine on anything, what you really need is a device with something like 256 'cores' each with it's own RISC processor, 128 Mb RAM, ROM containing a basic operating system and dual SHA256 co-processors. Each of these blocks would take up something like 0.8 square millimetres on a 28nm process, so 256 of them on single die is perfectly feasible (possibly even 512). Such a general purpose array could mine just about anything you like, but it wouldn't be the optimum for many coins, particularly bitcoin. Power consumption is of course another matter! Anyone else like to take up this subject? |
|
|
|
Hi,
Sounds interesting as long as you keep communicating well and be honest, to many scammers out here.
Anyhow, good luck!
Couldn't agree more, been following the Hashfast situation for the past few weeks. I honestly don't think they are scammers, just very amateurish in their approach to what is a reasonably complex engineering project. Why, oh why won't they talk to their customers? Someone else on one of the forums, I cant find the post right now, hit the nail on the head by saying that even very pissed off customers would rather be told what's actually happening and what might be done about it rather than hearing nothing and speculating about what's really going on. It just makes everyone's life unpleasant, especially those that have paid a lot of money in good faith and have nothing to show for it. You're right that communication is vital, from our point of view (which is of course biased) an awful lot of the previous proposals have been a bit long on style and short on technical substance which is, after all, what makes the project stand or fall. Many of the headline figures simply don't stand up to scrutiny but unless you've got really in depth knowledge it's not obvious that something isn't right. Thanks for your good wishes. |
|
|
|
hello novello And hello to you too, thanks. |
|
|
|
www.unitedbitcoinmining.comUnitedbitcoinmining went live last night so we are looking to giveaway 200 shares of unitedbitcoinmining coming out of early investors pockets. We have a fund of over 3000 BTC but thats not nearly enough for the high expectations we have set for the future we have around 50,000 shares that need to be sold before march out of 75,000 total shares each valued at 0.2 Bitcoin each. Once our target is reached the gains will be unbelievable but thats because we all put our money together to take advantage of a large fund creating large profits. Some whales within the last 5 days have made up to a million USD a day trading but thats only because they have the funds to do so it feels unfair to some but thats why unitedbitcoinmining was created. 2000-3000 bitcoins alone are being used to build a bitcoin mining rig right now with at least 600th/s mining at 200/300 bit coins a day thats around 9000 BTC a month being shared between only 75,000 individual shares. Another part of the fund will take advantage of anything from mining high gaining coins to be converted straight to BTC to professional day traders taking complete advantage of the predictable market at its current state even purchasing tangible assets to convert profit into BTC Unitedbitcoinming has a great future we just need your help so to speed the process up we are looking to give away 50 shares each to two advertisers of our website and the other 100 to anyone else who believes they can help our organistation grow. I think you need to take another look at your maths. Also, who are you 'reguated' by in the UK and what's your licence number? |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
