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141  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 01, 2014, 12:09:23 AM


She's looking cute and relaxed. Short term and momentum trading (with high amounts) let me look more like this:



 Wink
142  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2014, 11:53:51 PM
I personally have a lot more trouble with the mid term calls than with the short term predictions. Identifying a likely developing trend, and selling or buying into it seems relatively easy for me. But the question how to take your profits, in USD or BTC, *that's* the tricky bit, imo. Park them in BTC, and you'll see your profits melt away. Park them in USD, and one swing you missed later, and you only buy 2/3 of your original coins back.

How about open a small "hedge fond"? You stay with 50% of profit from beating the market (for example).

Not sure, but is this a test of sorts? I'm absolutely sure I'm not the only one outperforming the market (i.e. buy & hold), and pretty sure there are a lot more successful traders than me, both in percent and absolute profits. I'm doing... okay.

Anyway, I only started trading last year, and wouldn't claim I really know what's going on, and handle other people's money. Also, a very practical consideration: in an illiquid market like this, I'm already struggling with slippage at my current volume. No idea how that could be handled if managed funds are more - guess that requires a completely different type of trading strategy, that I simply have no clue about.

No test, only a proposal.

It's that I experienced for myself not to be able to bear the stress. If you say, that you can handle it and you are successful beating the market (no reason to not to believe you) why not extend your talent? You could set a limit and start trading with peanut amounts to test it out.

I know that there are a lot more successful traders out there and maybe some of them are already trading with other peoples money and I know that it is something very different to trade with your money or the money of other people.

Think about it.

Maybe there will be more people interested. You set a limit: Max 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 BTC per Person, max total amount: 10, 20, 40, 60, 80, 100 BTC.

If you feel uncomfortable at all, no problem. As I said, only a proposal ;-)
143  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2014, 11:28:16 PM
I personally have a lot more trouble with the mid term calls than with the short term predictions. Identifying a likely developing trend, and selling or buying into it seems relatively easy for me. But the question how to take your profits, in USD or BTC, *that's* the tricky bit, imo. Park them in BTC, and you'll see your profits melt away. Park them in USD, and one swing you missed later, and you only buy 2/3 of your original coins back.

How about open a small "hedge fond"? You stay with 50% of profit from beating the market (for example).
144  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2014, 10:51:53 PM
Anyhow, your last sentence seems to be referring to absolutes and blacks and whites and seem to be referring to a prediction of a future that has NOT yet occurred and your description of such future seems a little crazy from my perspective at the moment.

It's not a prediction, it's a mental attitude. All my high risks investments are totally worthless.

Until I come to the point where I start recalculating the value, most times...

...to make it worthless for another round.
145  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2014, 10:41:26 PM
You could, you know, try selling some when it looks like price is about to take a dive. That tends to give plenty of powder to buy.

...

I know, I know, not an option. "Hodl for life" and so on Cheesy

Successful short term traders are rare. Not because it were extremely sophisticated, but it is an enormous psychic strain. You have to be born for this work.

I can trade with small amounts in short term, but to start trading just with a medium amount and I feel that I will die very young.

I estimate 95% would not be able to trade short term without becoming a mind wrack over time.

I know that there are people who can. If you are one of these, I congratulate.
146  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2014, 10:08:10 PM
I'm a buyer this morning...small buys on 5 separate occasions.

Feels goooooood!  Tasty!

Even though I keep buying and hodling.. similar to you, I don't feel good about it... I mean overall, I am still confident, but it still makes me nervous to have my whole BTC holdings falling in value like this - even though I am fairly certain it is temporary.. probably less than 6 months, at most.

This is one of the main reasons to prepare yourself (mentally) for strong bearish moves from the beginning of your investment and one reason (there are more) why I would never form part of the "to the moon" crowd.

Depreciate it! Bitcoin has just gone to 0,00$! You have lost all your money! There's nothing you can do more ;-)
147  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2014, 08:44:50 PM
If fallen is a paid troll I'd respect what he's doing even more because at least their is a chance for him to get something out of it.  If he's not being paid than that is just pitiful and feel bad for the time wasted.

You can imagine someone paying for such low quality FUD. I can't. It's quite beyond my imagination.
148  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2014, 07:21:24 PM
This constant downward pressure we've been seeing pretty much the whole year doesn't make sense anymore.
I simply refuse to believe this is natural. That this is what everyone wants.
I also don't believe in theories as banks or governments taking us down. That is nonsense. But this is simply not normal behaviour. It's getting absurd now. This last round of dumping is absurd.


how about miners need to liquidate coins to pay bills? It's the turn of the month. Many might've put it off waiting for higher prices.


I could not say it better:

This fall is purely technical.
The way that news works is like this;
Bear market
Bad news is seen as very bad and good news just slows the descent.

Bull market
Good news is great while bad news slows the rise

It's all about how the news is perceived.

This fall is just unwinding the remains of the bear market. There is more coming and the news will do nothing to stop it. The fact that we had all this good news from earlier this year and we could only correct up a bit of the fall is a prime example of how much news affects the market. It will not create a reversal and we don't need bad news to have a correction. This is just natural market behavior.
149  Economy / Speculation / Re: There's your wall staring you in the face... Still no one buys on: August 31, 2014, 07:18:51 PM
There's no reason for this drop, I didn't see any bad news recently...

This fall is purely technical.
The way that news works is like this;
Bear market
Bad news is seen as very bad and good news just slows the descent.

Bull market
Good news is great while bad news slows the rise

It's all about how the news is perceived.

This fall is just unwinding the remains of the bear market. There is more coming and the news will do nothing to stop it. The fact that we had all this good news from earlier this year and we could only correct up a bit of the fall is a prime example of how much news affects the market. It will not create a reversal and we don't need bad news to have a correction. This is just natural market behavior.

QFT
150  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2014, 06:48:32 PM
That is way too complicated... MORE likely is that he is just paid by some government of financial institution to talk shit about BTC...

If a government wants some FUDsters they have better options than this poor guy making an impression of a broken spam bot algorithm. We can blame our governments but better not this way.
151  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin price back @ 485$ again ... on: August 31, 2014, 03:31:45 PM
bitcoin price $485 now ;O Huh Huh Huh

Have you ever thought about to work as a professional football commentator?
152  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin price back @ 488$ again ... on: August 31, 2014, 01:19:11 PM
Price won't dip much. It's obvious something shady is going on and most weak hands are long gone.

Yeah, it's true that most likely the majority of the 'weak' hands has been shaken out by now. But who knows, I guess there's still some money to be taken there. The shady stuff may be due to the bot on BTC-e!
Take a look at bitcoinaverage. 33k volume on btce, 8k on finex and 6k on stamp. This is NOT normal.

Bot exploiting. Volume will normalize on btc-e.

Compared it another time to the "btc china bot exploit", and it is looking exactly the same. Nothing to care about.
153  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin price back @ 488$ again ... on: August 31, 2014, 12:36:22 PM
That crazy bot on BTC-e that's going berserk! I don't know quite yet the exact workings, but I'm sure that the bot is the one to blame! I mean, has anyone provided a thorough analysis and explanation of what is currently happening there?

My first impression is that it looks familiar to this BTC China bot that got exploited (kettled) with bid/ask.

154  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin price back @ 488$ again ... on: August 31, 2014, 11:34:43 AM
Why people are searching always for reasons? It's too murky and there are a lot of possible reasons, quite probably  "the reason" is mix of all of them and maybe some more that we don't have in mind.

Negative TA is mirroring a negative market sentiment. Negative dynamic is building up more momentum and we get a doom loop.

It will end, when we find strong support, most likely somewhere  between 440 - 300.
155  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 30, 2014, 02:11:52 PM
Which was exactly schickeria's point by the way (if I understood him correctly).

You did.

Keep in mind, I replied to a post by schickeria who complained that in a market like this (consolidation at best, continued bear market at worst) posts like Klee's "Bears never gonna learn" start sounding delusional. I agree with that, even when I'm long-term extremely optimistic for Bitcoin.

Here we share the seats, regarding "delusion" as well as long term.
156  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 30, 2014, 11:46:27 AM
Bears never gonna learn  Cheesy

It horrofies me reading such things after 9 months of bear market. Was it not enough going down to 300? Must it go down to the ~100 to cool down this maniac? Or even lower? To levels where is no more hope left?

Please let this not be a mirror of the general market sentiment, or the real cataclysm has not even happened.




We have to cross one bridge at a time, and prices have NOT really broken $500, yet.  Then it would take much more work to get to those various lower levels that you mentioned. Do you really think bears have that many coins to sell or that they will be able to convince enough holders to sell at these prices and even lower prices... Gonna be tough to even get into the sub $450s arena... and I really have my doubts about getting that low absent some really decent FUD or other real negative news...

NEVER say NEVER, though.. NOT in Bitcoinlandia.   Wink

Both we know, that a bear is not something static. The bad and clever bear only had to sell his coins on ~1000 and bought back on ~400 to have 2,5x more coins (on only one swing).

Reading "bears never learn" after a long and hard bear/consolidation market makes me a bit afraid, that market participants are losing touch with reality.

No, I don't think we will fall to levels of oblivion and I hope we will build up a stable base between 400 - 600.

Get over it you lost the CCMF

*sigh*

The mysterious thing is that a lot of your bears will be on board of your CCMF, if and when it comes. Quite likely they would be one reason (if not the reason) of your CCMF.

So you should treat them better.
157  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 30, 2014, 11:19:48 AM
Bears never gonna learn  Cheesy

It horrofies me reading such things after 9 months of bear market. Was it not enough to go down to 300? Must it go down to the ~100 to cool down this maniac? Or even lower? To levels where is no more hope left?

Please let this not be a mirror of the general market sentiment, or the real cataclysm has not even happened.


158  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: August 29, 2014, 10:33:19 PM
I like your thread. Best TA thread here, excellent quality.

You should publish your btc address for small donations.

Edit: have you just now edited your signature or is it that I'm blind?  Wink
159  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 28, 2014, 01:28:27 PM
$513 to 508.74 is enough to bring out the trolls?  That has to be bullish with less than a 1% drop is the most they can hope for.

I can remember a lot of threads and comments on higher price levels where people were shouting "That's all you can do, bears (trolls)?" and a few days after there came a lot, lot more. So should I interpret your comment as a bearish indicator?

No, it's nearly meaningless who's shouting here, but I would wish to read more cautious statements, a wish that will never come true, as some people don't learn from the past and keep shouting.

160  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 26, 2014, 09:46:47 PM
Shoot the weak?
NO! In Libertopia you can enslave them. In fact Libertopia only works with unlimited slavery.

Which is kind of cool: Freedom is slavery.

C


That's what I thought, too. But further consequences would be higher crime, rebellion, robbery, theft, breach of the peace  Cheesy

So someone must shoot them down to keep the system stabile when poor people forming legion. In Libertopia this likely would not be a government, but private security services (payed with bitcoin?)

I really don't like the world(system) we're living in, but until now I heard nothing to make it better, but even worse.

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