I started thinking that this correction is more sever than I expected. I thought we were in small 4th correction and target was 50k usd. However now I see that we are some like in mid 2014. Please chech my analysis below and comment  We could also be in a scenario of 2013? No, the 2013 scenario cannot ever be repeated, never again. The circumstance was unique. Most of the coins were held in a single centralized exchange which was a disaster. This kind of disaster can never happen. 2018's crash is a joke compared to 2013. Bitcoin's fundamental are stronger than ever, back then even Antonopoulos was scared that it could be the end. Anyone that was around 2013 holding through the crash can't believe people is worried now. What we do have is a bunch of bitter Mt Gox era people that sold and miss the further moonings, and now all of these people are on a strong FUD campaign trying to get back to near MtGox levels to save face. That is literally all . |
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I would definitely label each transaction, but if they are automated payments, im not sure if you can do that. In any case and for maximun accuracy, you should enable the "Coin Control" features which for some reason are hidden by default (im assuming you use Bitcoin Core).
Go to Options - > Display -> "Display Coin Control features (experts only!)"
Then on the "Send" tab click on "Inputs..." and you will have everything you need.
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Or you just need to get two SSDs... a "small" one for the OS... the largest you can realistically afford for the blockchain data. To be honest, I have my OS on an SSD... and the blockchain on an ageing mechanical HDD... from memory it's a Western Digital Blue 7200 RPM Sata 6GB 1TB drive... I also have an ageing Core i5-3570K with a rather paltry 8Gig RAM... 17 megabit ADSL2+ connection... Syncing isn't lightning fast... would probably take a few days to sync from scratch again... but it works. You don't need the latest and greatest, just a bit of patience  Following on from the failure of my main notebook, I'm thinking of upgrading it. I fixed the problem which seem to have been caused by dust on the fan, which caused the machine to overheat whilst it was doing a secret Windows "upgrade" in the background. The processor is a Core i5-4210U @ 1.70 GHz, which is not the fastest, but seems to be OK for most of the things I do. It's got a 2Tb hard drive, and I'm thinking of replacing that with a 1Tb Samsung SSD ( the new faster one ). Memory is 8Gb, but I noticed that there is an empty slot, and I can add another 8Gb which is supported by the bios. The SSD should extend the time between battery recharging requirements as well as speeding things up. The alternative is to buy a newer notebook, but I think my upgrade will tide me over until I need a faster machine to process video files that I have created. I'll probably replace Windows with a Linux variant, as most of my problems seem to be Windows related, and I don't have them on the Ubuntu netbook. I don't think it's worth it going from 8GB to 16GB unless you are into video editing, audio editing, or in general media editing, in which you could maybe profit from it, but honestly, I think to run a node it's not going to make a big difference. Has anyone seen seen bitcoin's client consume more than 6 GB? I haven't seen many apps challenging a 8GB setup, other than next videogames... If you get a Linux notebook, Linux will consume even less resources, which means even more free RAM for bitcoin's client to use. |
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Ideally you want 16 GB of DDR4 ram, an SSD as fast as possible (the m.2 type) and an i7 computer or AMD equivalent.
The extra ram makes a difference, and I sync'd my Linux node today, and that has an external SSD. Despite the fact that it is external, it sync'd a lot faster. It looks as if I'm going to have to replace my Windows machine, and I'm thinking of getting an i7 with a 512Mb SSD instead of a 2Tb HDD. I can always use an external drive for the extra storage. But you need to store the blockchain files within the SSD in order to profit from the speed of the SSD drive. I guess if you have your OS in the SSD and the Bitcoin Core folder in the HDD it will still be faster, but from what i've read, you must have the OS and the Bitcoin Core folder (with all the blockchain files in there which means you need a big SSD) in order to max out your speed. |
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As I said earlier, we needed to close above resistance level coming from the previous dips, on that formed line, in order to not enter panic mode, and we didn't, so we are crashing. If we go below $8000 it isn't going to be pretty. We could be looking at $7000 as the next resistance point, drawing a line from $2955 and $1830, september and july respectively.
If that doesn't hold, we may be looking for a triple bottom at $6000. If that doesn't hold.. oh well, we may revisit lower prices, which is awesome because it means cheap as fuck coins to pick from.
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The biggest difference is Ledger has TONS of cryptocurrencies added in there, which in my opinion is an huge mistake. The more support you add in your hardware wallet, the more surface attacks that are brought with this increase of support for a bunch of tokens.
I would honestly stick to Trezor if I had to choose, and if you are into altcoins big time and care about them long term, then get a Ledger too and use it for altcoins, while you store the serious coins in Trezor.
Ideally, I would love a hardware wallet with Bitcoin support only that's extremely simple and robust.
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Have you looked at the mempool lately? https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,1yIt's as empty as it can get. So no, we are far from having real scalability problems. These big ass peaks were obviously abnormal behaviour, either be by exchanges not properly batching transactions, Roger Ver and Jihan Wu spamming the network, and so on. Add in segwit and the mempool is empty. Transactions are now fast and cheap. We don't need to rush things in order to accommodate a "mainstream demand" which simply doesn't exist, otherwise BCash would have full blocks as well Bitcoin itself. Censorship resistant and robust of the system > rushing things scaling wise. If you want to help learn to code and drop good BIPs, get nodes running etc. |
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From what I've read, gaps in network activity are due poor performance somewhere on the user's computer. Probably the software downloads a chunk of the blockchain and as it downloads it has to validate, so it takes a while to validate and it stops downloading until the validation is complete... im not sure if this is the way it works, but me personally, I got it to download smoother once I update my HDD to SSD and got a better CPU. I tried a bunch of stuff and I was never able to get a smooth download with no big gaps on my older computer, and I had a decent connectivity of 8 peers on average at all times.
Thank you for your kind advice. I'll try updating my HDD. I have 4 GB ram, I'll update it too. Soon, I'll report it back whether it worked or not. Ideally you want 16 GB of DDR4 ram, an SSD as fast as possible (the m.2 type) and an i7 computer or AMD equivalent. And as far as regular users not needing to run a full node, it doesn't mean that we should raise the blocksize since "only hardcore users will run full nodes". Some people want to run full nodes and do but couldn't be able to do it with bigger blocksizes. So be careful with this "only hardcore users should run nodes, the rest SPV" argument. |
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From what I've read, gaps in network activity are due poor performance somewhere on the user's computer. Probably the software downloads a chunk of the blockchain and as it downloads it has to validate, so it takes a while to validate and it stops downloading until the validation is complete... im not sure if this is the way it works, but me personally, I got it to download smoother once I update my HDD to SSD and got a better CPU. I tried a bunch of stuff and I was never able to get a smooth download with no big gaps on my older computer, and I had a decent connectivity of 8 peers on average at all times.
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There are even professionals in the fudding game; Polish national bank paid a youtuber 30 000 EUR for FUD. Largest player IMHO at the moment is Bitfinexed, who seems to work for US based, anti-crypto stakeholders  He also sold his coins at $2000. I guess he is not alone. Lots of coiners sold their coins at those prices and would love to get back in... Yeah I remember that. A lot of people are making a living by accepting payment by attackers. I've known stories of people accepting payments to promote FUD against Bitcoin and present Bitcoin as dead while pumping this other one "new coin" as the new Bitcoin, for example, many scammers on Youtube are promoting IOTA and Hashgraph as projects that are "more advanced than Bitcoin" and will therefore replace it, among other scammy claims. But governments getting into this misleading-game of disinformation at the youtuber level was new to me. It shows that they are trying to do as much as possible to stop the fiat leak into Bitcoin |
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I think for the summer we are waiting for 3 waves, but you need to wait a bit
There's 2 scenarios right now: 1) We fall to $7500 and then we keep seeing no floor all the way down to august levels, completing a bubble cycle. This would be ideal for long term holders, since we would get rid of all the idiots that can't hold and panic sell. We load up on coins then the rise to $50k starts. 2) We sustain closing above $8000 ish for the duration of the month, and a rise to $30k-ish starts for summer seasson, ruling out further FUDdings similar to MtGox crap. Im hoping for 1, simply because anyone with a brain should be hoping to increase their BTC wallet and not their USD wallet. |
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These cyclical "Bitcoin will never reach X price again" are great, because it puts things into perspective. It's fantastic to revisit these classics when they become deprecated as we do in fact reach new time highs.
It's also an excellent way to tell when people are being overly pessimistic, and therefore a bottom may be looming. Every time we have people saying we are going lower after a big crash is a sign of how you need to start getting ready to buy.
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I can sense the salt in the air. Notice how everytime Bitcoin pumps, you get an army of people saying "we are going lower". These guys have been watching the price since August (remember in August we were at 3000 and already voices of "it's going to crash" were being heard). A lot of people sold in August, and watched the rally to $20k on the sidelines. These people are now extremely SALTY at the fact that they missed the boat, and don't get fooled, no one thinks Bitcoin is dead and no one thinks the shitcoin being usually promoted by these guys is the future, they just want the price to go down to buy cheaper.
Everyone telling you that Bitcoin is going to stagnate now forever or that this or that shitcoin will take over the #1 spot is a scammer that wants your bitcoins for a cheaper price.
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i am still not convinced about this news saying this single person crashed the market because a lot of things don't make sense to me.
first of all his purpose was not to crash the market because he did not benefit from any kind of crash.
think about it, the news tells us he was selling to have money to pay others.... in other words he didn't want the price to drop so he can buy more bitcoin, he wanted the price to go up and stay up so he could get more money out. someone with this motivation doesn't crash the market and will do everything in his power to prevent that as a matter of fact.
secondly, i say unless he was selling on all exchanges he couldn't have caused any kind of crash whatsoever because simply put if you dump on one exchange price may go down there but it won't follow on all exchanges. and as i explained above you don't just go around and fuck the market up to cause yourself a lot of loss.
third, the news also told us he started selling months ago. and if i am not mistaken when i checked the date versus the price, bitcoin price was around $4000 when the news said he started selling. this means price was $4000 he sold, it went to $5000 then $6000 and so on and he was selling, it went above $10000 he was selling, it went to $20000 and he was selling,... so are we ignoring all these sales during the biggest rise of last year and still say he caused the crash?
and finally people who want to sell a lot of bitcoin and get the money while not paying taxes and get stuck in exchanges and pay huge ridiculous fees, and a lot of headaches, they don't use exchanges. they go elsewhere and make their trades behind closed doors and when you trade anywhere but exchanges you don't affect the price at all.
You must be new to government crooks. These guys are bureocrats, they get hired to do a job and they get it done. In this case, the job was "sell BTC to pay investors". I wouldn't be surprised the guy didn't do any research, so just googled "how to sell bitcoin" then joined Kraken and started dumping in batches. If he was dumping the price in purpose or not we don't know, but what we do know is this: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-07/bitcoins-tokyo-whale-sells-400m-bitcoin-bitcoin-cashLook at the graph. He sold 18000 at the dip, he was either panic selling or dumping in purpose. And yes, he could benefit from crashing the market. We don't know if a government paid him to purposely crash the market. And yes, dumping on a single exchange an huge amount of coins can trigger panic selling. Kraken is big enough to influence the rest of the markets. lets assume you are right, answer me this then. what did the government gain by crashing the market? bitcoin is still alive, it is still being traded, it is still being accepted wherever it has been accepted before and people are still buying and using it! so what changed apart from price going down and some weak hands exiting? as for that graph the numbers may seem high (2000, 6000,...) but they are not big in comparison. here are the volumes on each date from BitStamp alone: date: MtGox coins : Bitstamp vol 2017-12-18: 2000 : 14597 2017-12-22: 6000 : 48603 2018-01-17: 8000 : 38975 2018-01-31: 6000 : 12711 2018-02-05: 6000 : 46422 and as i said above it is still a matter of dumping on ALL exchanges if you want to crash the market. if you sell a lot on 1 exchange, price will crash there and it will not have any significant effect on the price in general. and from what i understood all the "analysis" points to selling on one exchange. Well, what they gain is rather obvious, and it's 2 possible scenarios: 1) The hostile one: They think that this will help killing Bitcoin. While it does not stop the Bitcoin network from working, if the price is lower, the hashrate is lower, therefore the network is weakened. We need a strong price, having a low Bitcoin price is not good. It will still be alive, but it's not ideal. These dumps make a lot of people think that Bitcoin is a joke as a store of value, this could be their goal. 2) The long term one: They crash the price to buy in cheaper. Governments have understood that they can never kill Bitcoin, so they want to get in a relevant position, which means entering in cheaper than 20k, as cheap as possible actually, before we go to 100k++ per coin in the next decade. They want to get in cheap, that's all. |
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i am still not convinced about this news saying this single person crashed the market because a lot of things don't make sense to me.
first of all his purpose was not to crash the market because he did not benefit from any kind of crash.
think about it, the news tells us he was selling to have money to pay others.... in other words he didn't want the price to drop so he can buy more bitcoin, he wanted the price to go up and stay up so he could get more money out. someone with this motivation doesn't crash the market and will do everything in his power to prevent that as a matter of fact.
secondly, i say unless he was selling on all exchanges he couldn't have caused any kind of crash whatsoever because simply put if you dump on one exchange price may go down there but it won't follow on all exchanges. and as i explained above you don't just go around and fuck the market up to cause yourself a lot of loss.
third, the news also told us he started selling months ago. and if i am not mistaken when i checked the date versus the price, bitcoin price was around $4000 when the news said he started selling. this means price was $4000 he sold, it went to $5000 then $6000 and so on and he was selling, it went above $10000 he was selling, it went to $20000 and he was selling,... so are we ignoring all these sales during the biggest rise of last year and still say he caused the crash?
and finally people who want to sell a lot of bitcoin and get the money while not paying taxes and get stuck in exchanges and pay huge ridiculous fees, and a lot of headaches, they don't use exchanges. they go elsewhere and make their trades behind closed doors and when you trade anywhere but exchanges you don't affect the price at all.
You must be new to government crooks. These guys are bureocrats, they get hired to do a job and they get it done. In this case, the job was "sell BTC to pay investors". I wouldn't be surprised the guy didn't do any research, so just googled "how to sell bitcoin" then joined Kraken and started dumping in batches. If he was dumping the price in purpose or not we don't know, but what we do know is this: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-07/bitcoins-tokyo-whale-sells-400m-bitcoin-bitcoin-cashLook at the graph. He sold 18000 at the dip, he was either panic selling or dumping in purpose. And yes, he could benefit from crashing the market. We don't know if a government paid him to purposely crash the market. And yes, dumping on a single exchange an huge amount of coins can trigger panic selling. Kraken is big enough to influence the rest of the markets. |
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I doubt it is an inside job from staff as they would have more to lose than to gain from what I imagine. Although there were a lot of accounts that were leaked and stolen. When the database gets leaked then it doesn't matter how bulletproof your passwords are. You should not follow your old accounts around on the forum and post that they are hacked in random threads. You should PM Cyrus or Theymos, ONE TIME, with proof that your the original owner. You should research what proof is acceptable, but almost as soon as you post verifiable proof the account will most likely be tagged by a DT member, removed from their signature campaign and then the account will be returned to you after due time.
The problem is "due time" can mean months. Some people have been waiting more than half a year with enough proof, and even high level accounts of Hero+ status get ignored. Looks like admins refuse to get their shit together in the account recovery department. This will only fuel the conspiracy theory about it being an inside job, since verifying signatures is a 2 minute task. Waiting 5+ months for that makes no sense. There's no way the queue is that big. |
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The MTGox trustee should know by now that he is the most hated man on Bitcoin. If no one has told him already, he must have seen some news.
If he doesn't stop, he is going to end up dead. I don't think Bitcoin $billionaires are enjoying this shitshow. So I think from now on he is going to go OTC as he should have done, unless Nobuaki Kobayashi wants to keep gambling with his life for god knows what reason.
I predict that the next week we will see some kind of official statements of sales going OTC. The market must take around 48 hours to digest these news and a bottom will be called. Buy the dip as usual.
You are getting a bit worked up about something that happened all the way back in December and January, arn't you? He didn't crash the market, he didn't sell enough coins... Man are you blind? the biggest selloff happened on the $6000 dip day, this means around mid febraury, less than a month ago. He obviously crashed the momentum. These big red candles are his sales, it's pretty obvious look at the graph and at the date of the sales, I don't know what other proof you need. He is either an idiot that doesn't understand what OTC is, or he was hired to purposely crash the market, pick one. |
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Obviously nobody in the space is going to love what he did, but is it all bad? I know we don't want price to decrease but getting that bitcoin into multiple hands rather than a couple whales seems like it is better overall to me.
Also why do you say his life is threatened? I doubt somebody is going to go after this person because of them doing their job...although I know how some certain NFL kickers are treated after they miss a big kick and this is much bigger than that.
You don't seem to understand the difference between market sales and OTC sales. When big amount of coins are counterfeited by authorities, they should be doing OTC auctions in order to not crush the savings of everyone involved in Bitcoin. If they do, they are doing their job like an amateur or they are doing it in purpose to piss off Bitcoin holders, which means that they are attacking Bitcoin, which means that the guy responsible for doing this should be considered to be in danger, because Bitcoin holder which have billions invested on it aren't going to simply sit back and watch a single guy crash the market when they could be going OTC as they should. |
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The MTGox trustee should know by now that he is the most hated man on Bitcoin. If no one has told him already, he must have seen some news.
If he doesn't stop, he is going to end up dead. I don't think Bitcoin $billionaires are enjoying this shitshow. So I think from now on he is going to go OTC as he should have done, unless Nobuaki Kobayashi wants to keep gambling with his life for god knows what reason.
I predict that the next week we will see some kind of official statements of sales going OTC. The market must take around 48 hours to digest these news and a bottom will be called. Buy the dip as usual.
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I guess it depends on how the remanining Mt Gox coins will be handled!
The moment the supply from Mt Gox dries up, bull market will return.
I doubt the guy behind the Mt Gox sales is going to be stupid enough to keep dumping in exchanges, exposing himself as the most hated man on bitcoin. He is already a dead man walking, if he keeps crushing the price in exchanges instead of going OTC he is going to end up having a visit from some very unpolite men as he is pissing off a lot of people with a lot of coins. Then again, im sure he knows this, as I suspect he is a government agent with only one mission: to crush the price, and he knows the consequences of doing so. Well, good luck for him. |
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