 A typical jail in Sweden. this is almost as good as a couple of 100K studio in Sydney. |
|
|
|
I think it is possible and in a short time frame, why
well the shear amount of money wasted by GOV and BANKS every day is staggering and easily $21 T a year or over a few years.
This much value is left on the table and BTC can catch most of it.
What do government budgets have to do with Bitcoin and how can Bitcoin catch that money exactly? Not to mention that most governments' budgets are in deficit, the expenses cuts are under way on most urgent social needs and those cuts provoke social unrest. Of course, a lot of bureaucracy could be shrinked, but you must be out of your mind to think it would be shrinked and that money spent on Bitcoin. On what planet do you guys live? Governments don't work that way  Crypto currencies are direct enemies of fiat, make no mistake, this flirting with 'allowing' crypto currencies in some 'liberal' western countries is just that, flirting. They will ban it overnight if the need arises. bitcoin disciplines central banks/gov economic policy, because now you can store your value at time (t) in bitcoin. eg, govt tax trillions each year and make stupid deleterious decisions that loose a good portion of that, and in the process devalue my money after tax. However my money after tax's value can now be stored in BTC and that cannot be inflated by Gov action anymore. So as a rational actor where do I put my value? This further occurs as BTC allows jurisdictional arbitrage on a scale undreamed of before. Accordngly bad BTC "regulation" will be disciplined by massive capital outflow. |
|
|
|
Hasn't the british pound been around though, for hundreds of years?
Something to ponder: why is it named the 'pound'? Good question. A pound of sterling silver. So a pound of silver today would cost about $340 ($21.25/oz* 16 oz). The pound is not worth $340 US dollars. :-) still, it seems the pound is still around, so people that say "every fiat dies" aren't being totally accurate. Just no. The pound is no longer a pound. It is now a fiat currency. Accordingly, the fact that there is still something called the pound in monetary use, cannot be used as an example of a fiat currency lasting a long time. Exactly. Calling it the same name does not mean it is related to the original currency in any important way. Just another soon to be worthless fiat currency. Inflation in the UK has caused the british pound to lose value verses the value of silver. It is still the same currency, as if you had a bank note from several years ago you could still tender it for payment today. But when it stands for one pound of sterling silver, and then doesn't and is worth 0.5% of a pound of silver, then is it really the same currency? If I photocopy a GBP note, is it still a pound? If you photocopy a GBP note then it would be a worthless counterfit. Like any currency inflation has decreased the value of the British pound. If you were to measure a the british pound (or any other major currency that has been around for 200+ years) by what it buys in terms of standard of living then inflation has not taken as bad of an effect. In other words, if you were to live the same way that one lived 100 years ago, then it would not take that much more money to have the same living standards. The problem is when it has no value. All paper currencies become completely worthless within an average of 27 years. So a currency can survive hundreds of years if it becomes a receipt that is redeemable for less and less amount real money. But once it stops being backed by real money at all, a 'fiat' currency it's game over, completely worthless within 50 years.   having said that no one keeps there saveing in fiat over 30 years, they go into property or shares. I think there is some confusion between real wealth and day to day transactional needs. When you start earning over a certain amount you soon realise that you will be going backwards by leaving your savings in FIAT. So you are forced to invest esle where. This is something some BTC'rs miss they are the same as LTC on GOX, eg BTC on amazom/ebay whatevs. The real wealth is not there, its in currency swaps, balancing the nightly, interbank reconciliation, buying houses, project fiance etc, of about minimum $100M amounts, and more routinely $1+ billion amounts. This is why things like peercoin will likely take the market. You know how BTC'rs struggle to communicate to the FIAT masses... Its like this trying to communicate to BTC'rs and most other crypto's about where the value really is. This is largely because most are used to small transactions, eg buying everyday needs. Most don't deal with capital raising and debt markets, interbank issues and currency swaps. the closet most get to a big purchase is a house. |
|
|
|
|
FRB isteslf is not bad, as it serves as a mechanism to organize capital.
However the allocation of FRB dollars is very bad, because banks have a monopoly and as we have seen are taxpayer backed.
So the generally siphon of all value from you to them, and are not exposed to market forces/diciplien, rather you are on their behalf.
FRB by central banks lacks any form of competition.
To put it one way, if fiat money was valuable, you should be allowed to counterfeit printed money perfectly,
why cant you, because this would inflate the currency, but that's good as it shows the paper is worthless. Go ahead try and counterfeit BTC.
counterfeiting is a public good because is exposes the currency and economic system to market forces
BTC has actual value even in that.
|
|
|
|
|
when btc gets to 100k ~ 1M then ask this question.
|
|
|
|
What is promised with bitcoin, it will fall then go back up again then fall again then go back up again  Bitcoin promises you it can be transmitted to another party, quickly and securely. It makes no other promises. Never has, never will. I think it also promises a rate of supply and multisig as well as some amount of other data can be sent. |
|
|
|
ok so it may be mining consumes the prices of all the Bitcoin it produces at time of sale of those bitcoins but can not consume any already mined coins value.
An already mined value coin gain value starting from zero (as mining consumed all value at time of sale ) from utility of use. Ie that people use it for transactions and payment.
and when I say mining I don't mean an individual but the whole mining market as that will come close to BTC value at time (t). Of course there will be overuns and under shoots and thats when you see people leave or take up mining.
However mining is giving security to the blockchain....so there must be something in the equation that allows that to be rewarded and costed out....have to think a bit more on that.
It may that value from already mined coins can be got at but over the whole usage as that reflects the security and transactions value of current coins, and that is discounted into current price
There must be something that you don't understand. The only relationship between the cost of mining bitcoins and their value is that the cost will generally not exceed the value. The cost of mining does not consume the value of the mined bitcoins. ok so it may be mining consumes the prices of all the Bitcoin it produces at time of sale |
|
|
|
|
ok so it may be mining consumes the prices of all the Bitcoin it produces at time of sale of those bitcoins but can not consume any already mined coins value.
An already mined value coin gain value starting from zero (as mining consumed all value at time of sale ) from utility of use. Ie that people use it for transactions and payment.
and when I say mining I don't mean an individual but the whole mining market as that will come close to BTC value at time (t). Of course there will be overuns and under shoots and thats when you see people leave or take up mining.
However mining is giving security to the blockchain....so there must be something in the equation that allows that to be rewarded and costed out....have to think a bit more on that.
It may that value from already mined coins can be got at but over the whole usage as that reflects the security and transactions value of current coins, and that is discounted into current price
|
|
|
|
Ok...imagination ON
After certain point in future, when BTC acceptance is spread enough, fiat will start to dissapear as noone will want to use it. It will become exactly what it is now, useless piece of paper that noone wants. Some short time before that point, 1 BTC will be worth 1,000,000 dollars, but it wont stop there, it will continue to slide (value of fiat) that it will become 1000000000 etc. untill it becomes 0 as noone will want ANY fiat whatsoever.
So comapring BTC to $$$ after certain point is useless. Like comparing BTC to dirt. What would you say, how much dirt does 1 btc cost? 1 kilo? 10000 kilo?...it's 0 as noone will sell any BTC for dirt..ther's enough of it around.
If BTC gets to 1m per coin, fiat as we know it will dissapear adn you wont be able to compare those two.
Imagination OFF
Don't you think some alts would become also important? Maybe different coins will have different advantages and people will trade between them. There will always be some kind of market for alt-coins, but they are just feeding off of the innovation of Bitcoin and really do not add anything of value to the table. and no. NXT and Peercoin are quite different to BTC, even Ripple is quite different (though has a serious UNL issue) |
|
|
|
Do you really believe that Bitcoin will hit 1,000,000
analyses never ends
Not before a period of huge economic growth or hyper-inflation. Assuming 21 million bitcoin in circulation and a price of one million dollars for one bitcoin then the market cap of Bitcoin would be 21 thousand trillion dollars. As per google the current GDP of the world is ~98 trillion dollars today. your maths is way out 1T = 10^12 21M = 21*10^6 21M * 1M = 21^6*10^6 = 21*10E^12 = 21T not 21 10^24 which is the fugure you gave 21 thousand trillion, rather you only need 21T. Also remeber that BTC is buying power not GPD and GPD accumulates ever year so over 10 years you have 980T. 21T buying power in that is very doable, only about 5%. |
|
|
|
|
I think it is possible and in a short time frame, why
well the shear amount of money wasted by GOV and BANKS every day is staggering and easily $21 T a year or over a few years.
This much value is left on the table and BTC can catch most of it.
The only caveat being it may not be BTC that does it rather and Alt like PeerCoin or NXT may do it in the long run (re my formative views on mining).
5 years out from now I would not be surprised to see BTC in the 300K ~ 1 M range. In fact I would be more suprised if it was not in this range.
Further you wont "see" hyper inflation, rather you wages will continually drop versus cost of living, while the bare minimum, will be just affordable. Case in point we are already in hyper inflation its just your used to it. BTC is holding value and eating GOV/Banking waste.
|
|
|
|
Can some one explain to me how mining will not eat all BTC value. Eg any value left on the table will make mining profitable to the point of BTC value.
There is no guarantee that mining is profitable. For many miners, it is not profitable. but then does not mining ultimately consume all value of BTC?  ? or whatever value it leaves on the table. Eg say BTC is more efficient with mining that FIAT which is expensive to maintain handle make, use, dispose and for banks to maintain that system. The FIAT - difference Value = cost mining(t) = the amount at (t) left on the table so to speak. sure some miners will over estimate this value and go broke. My larger concern is that the mining must ultiamtely consume entire value difference as long as it leaves the money on the table. This makes me think that POS will prevail as mining is near zero cost, just a node maintain, or some other non mining way. Even say POS has issues, they are software and can be sorted. There seems to eb no way to get around the mining issue in a system geared for mining. I am not saying BTC will nto go to 10K or 100K I think it will, but its sort of like pushing against a massive head wind |
|
|
|
|
Can some one explain to me how mining will not eat all BTC value. Eg any value left on the table will make mining profitable to the point of BTC value.
|
|
|
|
|
I struggle to see the use case for Light coin atm, except different algo.
That said I hold LTC.
The real sleeper is Peercoin.
It's the crypto that crypto people don't get.....backbone currecny....they just don't get it, it like it 2009 and trying to explain BTC and the word FIAT currency and everyone eyes glaze over....
Even with the 1000's of alts now out there, there is not one contender that is trying to be a backbone currency except peercoin.
Thats a hint as to how much not understood it is.
back bone currency will be the new FIAT (sorta) word that people understand.
In the mean time thanks for cheap Peercoins.
|
|
|
|
You've been here for over a year and a half, and you still ask these questions..
please enlighten me. |
|
|
|
|
I recall about a year / 6 months ago that alts were going up much more than BTC, now we see that unwinding.....how low will alts go?
|
|
|
|
|
pow has nothing at stake, you can mining as many merged coins as you want.
the energy consumed isn't stake its an energy drag.
substitution of mantra for thermodynamics doesn't cut it.
all actions require energy including POS, including the acquisition of pos, but it just does not suffer the drag of pow.
|
|
|
|
Proof of Stake coins have many issues here are some: PoS is not backed by anything other than the belief there are worth anything and there will be an endless supply of PoS coins because one created today does not have a significant advantage over on created tomorrow, next week, next month....... What currently is happening is new coins are created with PoW, mined for a week until a fixed number is reached and then change to PoS and then you can claim your stake at buying xyz coin. The only advantage a coin released today has over on made sometime in the future is; somebody already bought into it. The advantage quickly disappears if the new coin has a better catch phrase a flashier webpage or bigger marketing capital.... There is no end in sight for stake claimed coins and all promising x % return if you know a bit of programming you will have your very one coin too and everyone can buy into your claim based coin completely deluding the marked. Its a barrel without bottom and once it clicks by the herd run for the hills if you own a stake. With a PoS the richer get richer. The most significant flaw of any proof-of-stake system and any system that diminishes coin rewards, is it can't distribute currency from the hoarders to the users of the currency, thus it will end up with the hoarders (the banksters) accumulating all the coin and the currency usage dying. This is because the wealthy spend a much lower % of their net worth than the masses do. PoS is a technological dead end. Once the coin is released the only thing to do is "claim your stake" no research, no new capital outside the buy in, no evolving industry... PoS can NEVER remain decentralized. Satoshi's Proof-of-Work is the only known solution to the Byzantine General's Problem (was a known unsolved problem since at least the 1970s). To 51% PoS is dead easy: You start buying aggressively or "willy" style until you have 51% of a PoS coin, and then sell off your coins so that you no longer have 51%, but your history of having once owned 51% makes it possible to attack the network at any time in the future at next to no cost only some computing resources (and thus electricity costs, etc.). As you once had a 51% stake, you can build a better blockchain than the other 49% can, starting from the point where you owned 51%. You develop this blockchain in secret, after you have sold off your coins (and profiting from it); and then release your secret blockchain to the world, and nodes will pick it up because it carries more stake than the 49% blockchain. Now not only do you have your profit from the original sales of the coin, you have your 51% back (to the extent that it's worth anything). Not all coins need to be in one address, in fact, doing so would prevent the attack in most PoS implementations. Unlike bitcoin where everyone can see if anyone comes dangerously close to 51, in PoS its all hidden an attack can happen incognito. There is no way of knowing if any PoS chain is already "dead", as it could have been done at any-time in the past. And then there's is also the possible social 51% attack .......... But then there's the social 51% attack where a tiny majority hold a massive percentage of the currency. When this occurs the market is open to extensive manipulation for the benefit of the few, as with real world economics (the 1%). NXT is a good example of the social 51% attack, the top 33 accounts hold 51% between them. The top 50 accounts hold 61.2%. I'm quite sure the top 1% of accounts (400 ish) hold almost everything, with the other 99% playing with spare change. source There is no better backing than energy because everyone needs it, wants it and i will never have any problem selling it. To create a PoW coin you need x amount of energy and you can not cheat. The best you can hope for is to have a more efficient miner. Because the energy has been spent, the coin has a base value (many other things on top) and is a kind of a storage medium. Edit: ........
The only truly universally accepted wealth is energy (does not matter in which form as it can be converted), and Bitcoin is a store of it.
you really don't get it. ok firstly pos coins are no more "infinite" than pow coins. It all depends on the parameters you chose. Eg at them moment the number of peercoins being produced is less than LTC and BTC. secondly the parameters that you choose are all important for any coin, it like the boundary conditions for the navier stokes equations. Eg nothing has the boudary condition of Peercoin, ulike multiple coins that are near exactly BTC. there is no difference to buying into a mining early or pos coin early how you spend your effort is up to you. Accordinlgy your arguments do not stand up to logic or the material facts. As long as a POS coin can function as a distributed ledger then that all it has to do. POW coins are backed by exactly same belief you decry POS for. Also wealth is energy when that energy can produce useful work, so has a low entropy. Eg guel can spin an axle to do something for you, farm, drive, move, etc. Low enthalpy energy like the exhaust heat from and asic is near worthless. Further you can easily squander energy on projects that have no value. So low entropy energy can be easily squandered on high entropy projects. The possession of low entropy energy is no assurance it will create wealth. go and do at least thermodynamics 1 and 2 before you make statements about energy use and wealth. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
