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14221  Economy / Digital goods / Re: Crypto Trading bot 🚀 on: December 17, 2018, 06:14:28 AM
That's a management fee. People've been paying other people for centuries to manage their money, accounts, investments, paying them to clean their cash, cook their books, etc. That's payment for a service that as I'm sure you'll find in Vanguard's terms of use, does not promise profits. Quite the opposite of crypto trading bots, signals and the like... who may not guarantee profits (some do!) but certainly promise some. Vanguard probably also has a proper, audited accounting history and portfolio. Channels and services offering automated signals and bots, very seldom do.
14222  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Cloudbet's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread on: December 16, 2018, 06:25:17 PM
@LFC How're you feeling today? I honestly thought we were going to see a parked bus after 1-1, but I guess we can credit Mourinho for still trying to attack. Two fortuitous goals from deflections, but you don't get those goals if you don't take your chances. Alisson made a mistake, but it wasn't a bad one, so we lost the chance for a clean sheet. Still 8 goals to make up the difference on City, not that I'm worried. One day we're going to get our top 3 back into gear!

But look at the pool! EIGHT of you predicted 3-1! I did a 2-0, thinking it'd be a tight game.

Meanwhile, another big 6 slipped up. Arsenal? Even Mikhi couldn't save them, but Mourinho must be missing him big time.

What a day to be Liverpool!
14223  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: International Games Prediction Thread on: December 16, 2018, 03:39:56 PM
I didn't watch all the matches but was keeping a tab of all the results, Malaysia indeed surprised all by beating Thailand, I was lucky not to play on Malaysia. I feel both the teams are competitive, while Vietnam are the favourites they'll be foolish to underestimate Malaysian side. I'll agree games like these tend to be rough, and it's fun to watch them, I'm not playing but I feel your bet is safe we should see plenty of goals in this match.

Yeah, I actually don't watch national games as much as I used to in the 90s or even early 2000s. The national team (Malaysia) used to have a good number of players from my state, and that was when I'd watch every match of my home team, until the very shameful disgrace of all of them caught enjoying drugs on a night out. Everyone got kicked out... I didn't recognise my team anymore, we got relegated two divisions and have never recovered til today.

Think we got one or two players who sometimes still makes the national squad but no good first-11s. But since our striker won the Puskas 2 years back, we've been playing good football again. There's still a huge dearth of quality, we're far from the 1970s golden era, but we're getting a bit better at physical presence and pitches are somewhat improving.

Vietnam eventually won 1-0. Every game leading up to final had been averaging 3.2 goals so the last game was probably a letdown... we live to fight another day, but all credit to team Vietnam.

Underdog of the tourney to me apart from Malaysia were the Philippines too. Guess Sven isn't past his shelf life yet!
14224  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Bitcoin-AML: Who's who with whom? on: December 16, 2018, 01:47:54 PM
Indeed, I would steer clear of Changelly. I don't believe they mandate KYC like Shapeshift, but they've been known to confiscate "suspicious" transfers and then require KYC. It seems like they specifically target Monero.

Also several complaints I've seen on this forum and on others outside of reddit, all with Changelly at the centre of the problems. Every service is bound to have its detractors but when the frequency persists, then you know it can't be random coincidence but an emerging pattern. I've used Changelly myself in the past, but when there are other options that don't give the same issues...

And Binance. I'm not sure how long more they can run without bowing to KYC requirements. The 2 BTC daily limit for unverified accounts there is pretty good though.

I'm really surprised they haven't either prohibited US customers or changed their KYC thresholds. Given their size -- and what Shapeshift did -- I'm sure the US government is breathing down their neck.

They certainly have had governments breathing down their neck. China, anyway, which is why they just shifted their operations to Japan and then now Malta. But yeah, we've already seen the US govt take their chase overseas and offshore. 1Broker was the biggest catch this year and if THEY were targeted, even when USA seemingly didn't have jurisdiction, I wouldn't dismiss Binance as a target, unless their current HQ jurisdiction (Malta) is backing them? I wonder if UK's backing for Malta makes it protected from Big Brother US.
14225  Economy / Digital goods / Re: Crypto Trading bot 🚀 on: December 16, 2018, 01:14:08 PM
There's a simple logic that tells us all we shouldn't pay for a bot.

1. If the bot works, then you don't need to sell it for any amount of money. Consistent profits, if true as claimed, along with compounding, ensures you make more money in your trades than you would selling it. Why would anyone waste time selling when a system is automated and profitable? You'd be enjoying life on some neverending holiday somewhere.

If the point wasn't to make money and to "help" people, you'd be giving it away for free.
14226  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: RPF(Replace by Fee) vs CPFP(Child pays for parent) on: December 16, 2018, 01:05:51 PM
if I'm not mistaken, RBF can be done by adjusting output amount (decrease output and increase fee)
so I think you can't do RBF and send to another address at the same time
trying to send the same utxo to another address is called double spend attempt

My Electrum experience, and assuming this works for all clients, RBF only increases the fee. Every other spend detail of the transaction is a copy of the original (receiving address, amount to be transferred, input address), except for the specified fee (and of course the tx ID itself), at least this is how all of my RBFs look like in Electrum. When I choose to RBF, only fee area is not grayed out.
14227  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +1,486 units | 116 bets on: December 16, 2018, 12:45:40 PM
Weird Saturday indeed. Every single game contrived to end 1-0, and even went against my hedge bet, hence 2 losses with nothing to shout about.

Today, only 1 game matters. A bit shocking to see Liverpool are such distant favourites, I cannot ever recall Man Utd ever given more than 6/1 when playing even at Anfield. Great value for Red Devils but I'm going for a bet with the heart, and choosing all the favourites to win today.

Game 1: Southampton vs Arsenal. Arsenal WIN @1.84. Betcoin odds: @1.85
Game 2: Brighton and Hove Albion vs Chelsea. Chelsea WIN @1.45. Betcoin odds: @1.5
Game 3: Liverpool vs Manchester United. Liverpool WIN @1.56. Betcoin odds: @1.45
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @4.1716. Betcoin parlay: 4.0237
Odds advantage: 3.68%
Units advantage: 14.79

Running advantage after 120 bets: +1,574.18 (+14.79 units)

Running units after 119 bets (31W|88L): -251.82 (-190 units)
14228  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: malwarebytes detecting trojan on bitmain.com on: December 16, 2018, 11:35:30 AM
I'm not finding anything on bitmain.com, also running on updated database. QN SSL seems to be running on quite a number of Chinese-based websites as well, and the main domain does turn up on a lot of Chinese forums, none discussing it as a threat (from Google translate anyway). The main site itself doesn't seem to load except for a page title in Chinese.

Most likely a past association with SSL, you should do as recommended and perform a thorough scan and cleaning, but I'm sure it's harmless.
14229  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-12-15]Crypto Market Registers a Swamp of New Investors Amid Meltdown on: December 16, 2018, 10:18:41 AM
And that's probably still natural, given the attention Bitcoin's had in the past two years. We've also got all these tecchy millenials all ready and awash with fresh funds who're keen to invest. Surprisingly, past studies have shown these young 20 somethings are buying and intending to keep, so we know already that all these small amounts of new buys aren't going anywhere for the long term.

Then there's us earners who will want these prices to last - not really go lower since we have to liquidate for expenditure - so sideways trading for medium-terms of 1 or 2 years even suit us well.
14230  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: ★ Crypto-Games.net ★ Presents from santa! ★ on: December 16, 2018, 09:22:13 AM
My Crypto-Games nickname: Sojourner
I like Crypto-Games because the chat's where good things happen to good people. And I'm a really, really good person.
14231  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Importance of having a proper campaign manager on: December 15, 2018, 07:44:11 PM
I think as pointed out above, the only real campaigns still sustaining are observeably just industries that are already running. Products with established userbase amd providing real services for real needs. Hence gambling and mixer services, and a few exchange services.

Everything else ICO related can't sustain itself, good management may delay the inevitable but can't prevent that. They can bring value though, that's well recognised.
14232  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin bottom could be around the corner ! interesting chart ! on: December 15, 2018, 04:20:29 PM
Can't say I'm not liking the chart, but I'm now quite careful when we talk about lines that are never crossed yet or thresholds never broken. Bitcoin's been doing new things in the past 2 years, bucking RSI trends, breaking 30, 60 and then whatever-day average lines, so if we see BTC fall below 2.5k (certainly not implausible now) then yeah, we're pretty much in yet further new territory.

I'm "liking" 300 days of sideways movement though. It's what I'd been expecting for a long time, but if I've learnt any lessons, 2019's going to surprise in some fashion.
14233  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread (EPL) on: December 15, 2018, 02:48:02 PM
Ahhhh man, epic times. Had to sling you another Merit for this post.
Remember Gary McAllistar’s late free kick against Everton when we were fighting to get top 4 in that 2000/01 season.

Good times, man.


Missed your mention of McAllister, OF COURSE I remember that goal another derby thriller. 2001 was a brilliant year I don't care how else people remember it but to have all my childhood heroes in that season, the super solid defence of Houllier (and we still played exciting esp with Gerrard in his youth), the crazy Riise, didn't we always have good leftbacks? All that would pave the way for the Rafalution.

Good times always, and I'm sure good times ahead no matter what.

Damned City is back on top of course, but it will be so sweet to take it back with a win over old rivals. The true Manchester team to beat. Super Sunday. Glorious!
14234  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-12-14]Samsung Motivated to Launch Crypto Cold Wallet in Upcoming Galaxy S1 on: December 15, 2018, 10:50:49 AM
right---a "cold wallet" built into a smartphone. Roll Eyes

it's bad enough we got noobs plugging hardware wallets into online PCs and calling it "cold storage". now mobile wallets are gonna be called "cold storage" too? it's like a conspiracy to discredit good security practices.....

I was just thinking myself too. Cold wallet, and then the worst possible device. The way people use their smartphones, tethering and connecting, knowingly and unknowingly. Real smart. We've got industry commentators just regurgitating technical terminology to fool themselves and people into thinking they're experts, worst is it actually works.

And this just after yesterday's 2018 Worst Password Offender's list coming out with cryptocurrency wallet users ranked No. 3. Yes, still behind staff members of the Pentagon, but no surprise to see that crypto users spend so much money on gadgets and "cold storage" and in the end still practising really poor security behaviours.

Actually I'd really like to see them do it. Then wait for the "hacks" to start happening.

14235  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: International Games Prediction Thread on: December 15, 2018, 10:09:13 AM
Anyone watching the Suzuki AFF Cup Final today? I thought it was going to be a Thailand-Vietnam final but Malaysia's been a really strong candidate and knocked out Thailand in the semis, so they deservingly meet Vietnam in today's second leg final that starts in 2 and a half hours. Drew the first home leg 2-2, I'm not entirely sure if away goals work in the finals but anyway backing both an over 2.5 goals game plus a Malaysia win.

Watching volume of bets on Fairlay and it's all backing the clear favourites Vietnam, with odds dropping from almost 2/1 to now around 1.6/1... while Malaysia odds climbing above 5/1. Backing the underdog here to win only the second time since 2010.

Lots of chaos and bombs in the preceding knockout matches, and it's quite different with club hooliganism in Europe, here it's so much Southeast Asian rivalry between ethnic groups and just plain bad blood in politics boiling over to the field.

Expecting lots of scuffling, plenty of cards, and general mayhem. Gonna be a game to watch!
14236  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +1,486 units | 116 bets on: December 15, 2018, 08:05:28 AM
Really tight game, I did see that most of the volume at Fairlay on the match was for a draw, so perhaps everyone else knew something a little more than I did, eh? Anyway, Leganes drawing away to a favourite, should probably keep an eye on them.

We return to more EPL action for today, and use the AFF Cup final between Vietnam and Malaysia to try and double that odds. We use a slightly risky Over goals for all legs:

Game 1: Crystal Palace vs Leicester City. Over 2@1.74. Betcoin odds: 1.7
Game 2: Huddersfield vs Newcaselte. Over 2@1.97. Betcoin odds: 1.9
Game 3: Vietnam vs Malaysia. Over 2.5 @1.94. Betcoin odds: 2.0

100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @6.6674. Betcoin parlay: 6.1

Odds advantage: 9.3%
Units advantage: 56.74

I'll also take a side single on Malaysia winning the AFF Cup on fairlay, interesting odds as I think they've got a fair chance with one of the strongest teams in years. So 90 units (couldn't match it all) at Fairlay on Malaysia to WIN at full time @5.5609. Betcoin odds: 5.5
Odds advantage: 1.1%
Units advantage: 5.48

Total units advantage: 62.22
Running advantage after 119 bets: +1,559.39 (+62.22 units)

Running units after 117 bets (31W|86L): -61.82 (-100 units)
14237  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-12-14] Blockchain Development is Linkedin’s Biggest Growing Job Sector on: December 15, 2018, 07:28:20 AM
I think the actual one was #1 Emerging Job, which I'm not exactly sure is the biggest growing - emerging specifically on LinkedIn too, which only lists "professional" occupations.

Doesn't seem to match what seems to be happening on the ground at the level I'm watching, though. Crypto firms and those providing related services seem to be following the market: contracting rather than expanding. Exchanges closing down officers, miners closing down operations, advisory services resizing. And salaries also, according to other research, going down.
14238  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Very late migration from Multibit to Electrum! on: December 14, 2018, 04:35:01 PM
.... So does that mean the migration was not necessary? If I have the address, I can always recover the coins? Should I move the address to an up-to-date Electrum? I could install it on a raspberry?

I think migration was necessary. You need a client that's well supported and secure to perform transactions. Multibit's dead and Electrum's just about as robust and well-supported as it gets.

You can always recover if you have the private key and/or seed. The address alone isn't enough.

Always use the latest stable version - currently 3.2.3 - past versions have known vulnerabilities. I'd actually recommend sweeping everything to a new wallet. Just in case your old one's somehow compromised without you knowing. PLUS you can move to native Segwit, which is pretty and other good things =)

14239  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: A proven way to make money from gambling - what's your opinion about this? on: December 14, 2018, 11:36:20 AM
My opinion: that is a terrible way to "grow" your bankroll and is a proven way to lose everything.Believe me a lot of people are trying that each day. You say go for 100/1 odds, well, that's the equivalent of going to a dice site and betting at 99% chance to win (yes, this exists in dice games if you don't believe me).

You say 200 bets to gain even? Well if you use compounding in dice games at 98% win (for about 1% gain at 1% house edge), you can double your bankroll in only 70 rolls.

So, 70 rolls at 99% win and provably fair? I'd say that's far better chances than betting 200 times at horses without provably fair!

And still people lose at 99% chance;)

That's not the same as 99% chance of a dice.
You choose that horse to lose based on several factors, such as previous record, previous Jockey, you get all these stats immediately at many sites without having to dig for this data.

You also don't have to gain even, if you are happy with making $1000 - just take it out and continue later on when you feel comfortable - the chances are better if you don't do it constantly time after time but instead - choose carefully your venue etc.


I do get it's not the same, but I have a feeling it's rather hugely more variant than we'd think. I bet on sports a lot too and there's just so much to account for that they've got hundreds of analysts and computers drawing up the initial odds for football which has arguably more variables than horse racing.

It just feels like a really bad idea (and certainly not a proven method) to use your strategy on 200 horse bets just to double the bankroll, when it seems far easier to use a provably fair method at about equal chances.

Furthermore, with bookies, they may never always take your full 6k bankroll, and then there's so much chance for collusion, bad luck... you do say Australia is less prone to corruption but that doesn't mean it isn't bulletproof. I'd rather risk it on pure maths on dice is what I'm saying - not that I'd ever risk 6k for $60!

P.S.: Found this site on 100/1 horse strike rates. They do seem to be climbing every year, closer to the 1% equilibrium. So it may appear, statistically, betting against 100/1 horses has an edge. But phew, I could still never do that. If you want, you should do a record and collect 200 races so you have something to show =)


So, 70 rolls at 99% win and provably fair? I'd say that's far better chances than betting 200 times at horses without provably fair!

So that calculable, if 70 rolls of a duplicate bet were made then 99% becomes  49.4% of never losing that bet.    This is the same deal as the green slot on roulette wheel, it dont have to win often just being there means the house wins often enough to pay the dealers, rent etc

Yeah, I did count in house edge already for those 70 rolls. It would be fewer rolls without edge. I'd still never all-in $6 70 times at 99% chance though. Madness. Unless that were maybe 1% of my bankroll, and I just wanted to show off or build up a wagering record. Playing for wagering prizes makes that +EV.
14240  Economy / Speculation / Re: NEW BAKKT game on: December 14, 2018, 10:35:26 AM
i hope this list is gonna get as REKT as the bottom list ..... from down to UP come on corn

Well then it'll be a good sign for me if the pattern follows bottom list, and this time I'm chasing ChinkyEyes who was ahead for a very long time. 8888 is some chinese oriental fenshui yin yang power going, so let's see how long that holds. And of course we'll see if BAKKT even lifts off eventually. Something tells me we're in for a few more surprises heh.

Not that I'll cry if Loyce wins this damn thing. His prize will be >$3k too, bloody hell.

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