$50 million is really a small sum for any country, even as small as El Salvador. If they had 10% or higher of their foreign currency in Bitcoin, this would be a problem. I'm actually surprised that despite all the Bitcoin maximalism rhetoric, El Salvador didn't go as much all in on Bitcoin as Microstrategy did.

If you think that Bitcoiners are good at economics, you are deeply mistaken. Most Bitcoiners are just repeating libertarian cliches - fiat currency is bad, regulations are bad, FED is very bad, taxes are bad, laissez-faire capitalism is good, hard money is good. They dismiss the fact that libertarian view on economics is not shared by mainstream economists, it's considered an archaic and flawed theory that was tested largely discarded.

Halvening. Bitcoin always rallied after it, there's no reasons to think it won't rally again as a reaction to halvening 2024. Would Microstrategy buying Bitcoin move the price? Of course it would, because buying anything always pushes the price up, but if you think that lots of investors would take it as a bullish signal - that's unlikely. No one really cares if a permabull buys more, it got old rather quickly. If Bill Gates announced that he's a bitcoiner tomorrow, that would cause a rally, but he won't.

News of some more dirt-poor countries adopting Bitcoin as legal tender might cause a price spike, but it won't be enough to start a rally. Same for some institutional adoption.

I wouldn't assume that the crash was largely caused by panicking newbies. I'd say it was more likely done by whales and pro traders who saw the stock market crash and decided to pull their money out of Bitcoin too, because it was already in bear market and stock market downsides have correlated with Bitcoin downsides in the past.

Bitcoin is not changing its properties, the people's perceptions are. I think from now on it will be hard to sell Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation or economic uncertainty. I guess the narrative would switch to censorship resistance and privacy, though these things are much harder to sell to general population than value going up as a reaction to inflation. Or maybe the economic hedge narrative will have its second chance if a bull market will happen while the global economy is in a recession.

The next 2-3 years will be very interesting for Bitcoin, it's nothing like any previous years, so it will be a huge test for it.

If you want to analyze Bitcoin only as a censorship resistant digital money transfer, then Bitcoin simply has no competition, aside from altcoins, which can be ignored, because they are not secure. And since Bitcoin has no competition in this sphere, talking about efficiency makes no sense, because there's nothing to compare to.

But we can still talk about adoption by global population and energy use. Bitcoin is adopted by 0.4% of world's population, and only a small fraction of those people do transactions regularly, while Bitcoin consumes 0.1-0.2 of world's electricity. This isn't efficient, compared to other industries. Bitcoiners often say that video streaming or gaming consume even more electricity than Bitcoin, but those things provide utility to 10-30% of global population.


I'm not saying here that Bitcoin should be more efficient, or should be shut down because it's inefficient. I just don't want Bitcoin community to lie to the world, because in the long run the world will figure it out, and Bitcoin community will lose trust.

Various infographics show that that banking industry consumes the same order of magnitude of electricity as Bitcoin. But Bitcoin processes up to 1 million transactions per day, while banking industry processes nearly all digital transactions in the world. Even with Lightning Network Bitcoin wouldn't be able to be used by all people in the world. Currently around 30 million people own Bitcoin, while everyone owns fiat. So Bitcoin is actually extremely inefficient between how much energy it consumes and how much utility to the world it provides.

Interesting to note that this bottom is already on the level of ATH of 2017, while in the previous cycle the bottom (~$3,000) was way higher than the previous top (~$1,200). So, not only did this cycle brake the pattern in terms of top expectations, but also the bottom expectations. There's gonna be a very fierce battle over the $20-22k psychological level, because if the price falls below that, it's a sign that Bitcoin is overall not as bullish as people thought, with their dreams of $1 million per coin.

This depends on what type of investors is responsible for the largest share of volume in Bitcoin market. If it's people who live from paycheck to paycheck, then yeah - any economic crisis would mean no spare income to dump into Bitcoin. But if its middle class with some savings, even during crisis, or millionaires and billionaires, then they could buy Bitcoin at any time, but choose not to.

Every time there's a serious crash, some trolls create new accounts to spread FUD that Bitcoin goes to zero. IDK what's their motive or whomever hired them - to bring Bitcoin price lower to buy more, or just damage the image of Bitcoin, or just for fun - but this won't work. It happened countless times, and Bitcoin always recovered and then reached new highs.

You can't stop anyone from buying and selling Bitcoin. This problem will eventually solve itself when Bitcoin market will be large enough to not crash because one project sold thousands of coins and also when altcoins will stop doing their wrapping, because people will realize that it's pointless and doesn't improve anything, only makes things worse - introduces trust and more points of failure.

Newbie often fantasize about buying Bitcoin in 2010 and being a Bitcoin billionaire now, but realistically, you would have this exact feeling of "Bitcoin going to zero" dozens of time, and would have likely sold your coins and took some relatively modest profits, instead of millions or billions.

It's pretty similar now - there's no reasons to think that Bitcoin is going to zero. Nothing has happened to justify that, it's just another speculative crash, Bitcoin will eventually recover. Maybe in a week, maybe in a year or two, but a new bull market will come.

The theory is because Bitcoin's supply is fixed, it must go up when fiat goes down. But the reality is not so simple, there are many factors that determine Bitcoin's price, and fixed supply is only one of them. For the last few years Bitcoin demonstrated correlation with stock market and general economy. It wasn't a full 1:1 correlation, but whenever stock market crashed, Bitcoin usually crashed too, but eventually Bitcoin recovered regardless of stock market.

Today's crash is just like that - a short-term panic caused by the stock market. Sooner or later Bitcoin will recover, nothing has changed fundamentally.

Who cares what Schiff says? He's not an analyst, he's a propagandist. He has a belief that Bitcoin will go down, and he will always construct "arguments" of why this will happen. Never listen to permabulls and permabears, their opinions are worthless. Find some who has a good track record of predicting things accurately in the past, rather than being a self-proclaimed expert.

Of course a permabull would say that bull market is coming soon. Even if it hasn't been one full year since the last ATH. And of course anything can happen, Bitcoin has always been unpredictable, but still there's a pattern that there's usually quite some time between the ATH and a start of new bull run. And it's more likely that this pattern will remain true.

I wouldn't pay much attention to what the FED is doing or any other events in the world, they do not strongly determine Bitcoin's price.

So an economic site made an article about pricing things in Bitcoin, to showcase its volatility, and bitcoiners on twitter predictably got outraged and also said that this is good for Bitcoin. How does this change anything? This is just media noise.


It's impractical to measure things in BTC, because you have to go and look what the price is today, which is a few percent different from yesterday. So forget about it happening, until Bitcoin moves no more than by 0.1-0.2% per day.

There's no "we" in Bitcoin. Everyone decides for themselves how they want to use their coins. You can follow regulations, pass the KYC on exchanges, pay your taxes, or you can use privacy tools, practice coin control, trade in p2p way. The only time when "we" could come into play is deciding to rewokd Bitcoin protocol to be more like Monero, but this isn't even theorized.

Every second post on this board is in its core about farming merit and joining a sig campaign. It's being thinly veiled as "learning about Bitcoin", "being a good poster" etc., but the real motivation behind them is crystal clear.

It's just the reality of this forum that people join it for bounties and sig campaigns, because they have heard about their friends or someone on the Internet earning coins here. And the only way to change it is to ban paid campaigns, which theymos is not inclined to do for now.

The ATH  was one year ago. The market participants are still preferring to wait for signs that the true bottom has been reached. The fact that Bitcoin rallied last year on anti-inflation hype, but isn't rallying now only means that the reason wasn't fundamental, it was just pure speculation and the narrative was a rationalization for a typical bull/bear cycle.

I thought Bitcoin is the greatest hedge against inflation ever? The last year's bull run happened because companies declared that they will buy BTC to protect themselves against inflation. So why isn't Bitcoin growing now?

My theory is that Bitcoin simply moves in speculative cycles - when a critical mass of investors buy, it creates hype and the price gains momentum and grows incredibly fast, then when the market runs out of new buyers, the process reverses and we have a bear market. The news don't really matter, they can be interpreted to fit either scenario. If Bitcoin goes up while there's inflation and turmoil in the world, people say that Bitcoin is a hedge and a reserve asset. If it goes down while those thing happen, people say that Bitcoin is a risk asset and it's normal for it to be also bearish.