should i buy?
I guess by the call you made prior to this current tranche you've got a pretty good feel for the market:
OH OH i feel S.DICE could go down because of this 50% supply increase, seems traders are buying it up only to dump it back slightly higher
My prediction is unless someone comes in with big bucks and soaks up what's likely to be a lot more asks at around this price and at all increments on the way up than are currently showing we're going to have to wait for new money to come in to gradually push the price back up. If there's no big demand right now the few current stockholders who would still consider increasing their S.DICE holding have some time to watch the market and buy when confident it's not getting lower. If Erik's previously stated plan to release another 2,000,000 before the end of the week goes ahead we could be hovering around this mark for quite some time.
As far as I know there is no indication of a decline in play/profit/projected dividend and the value of total existing stock has not changed therefore it is still of the same underlying value as it was on Monday when it was trading 7.x. In that sense it's still a bargain but nobody knows what could happen to the business in the meantime and there is still a possibility this will have been an excuse for a total re-evaluation for many, such that the risks associated (e.g. risk of legal persecution) as re-assessed now forms a bigger part in determining value. If that's the case the 'heady days' of 7.x may never return
From a personal perspective with the bid side of
the order book at Havelock looking as it is were I to sell my holding right now I'd be at a substantial loss*. However I like that what happened last night was different again to what happened the previous two nights in terms of what can be gleaned and extrapolated (or guessed and unfoundedly speculated
) from it.
* Edit: A few minutes later and this is no longer the case with enough bids around the 6.2 mark that I am no longer in negative equity
I think 0.006 is a reasonable price, but the risks are high, the market feels saturated and there's still 3 million shares to go.... Do i wait and hope for a better price, or lock in this reasonable price... hmmmm....
... i placed a bid, i will give it more thought tomorrow.
Show Posts
