These kinds of ideas are still out there, and they are providing pretty strong sentiments that the bottom is not yet in, and suggesting that a brutal additional drop is necessary and nearly inevitable before BTC prices go to $10k by the end of the year.

We will see.  We will see.  I am still 48% that the bottom is not "in" but the longer that we stay without a correction or an attempt to test the bottom, the whole bottom testing inevitability (and necessary) scenario comes off as wishful thinking rather than describing something that has to happen and will happen.... and that kind of certainty and necessity language is what gets under my skin the most....   

If you describe the situation as 70% likely or even 85% likely, then I am going to consider you a lot more reasonable, even if such description deviates considerably from my current 52% assessment, but many times, the language implies much greater levels of certainty that are close to 100% - even though, most people, if you push them on any topic that involves future predictions will agree that they are not really saying 100% even though they are using such 100% kind of language... fucks!!!... my ongoing beef with common day parlance, I suppose.    Give me some nuance instead of trying to act like some kind of sorcerer who knows the future, when the future has not yet happened and no one knows it except in terms of probabilities... .. There are some events like gravity and the sun coming up that don't involve human behavior and have really high certainty levels, but when we are talking about events involving many known unknowns and unknown unknowns, including human behavior, you gotta give some leeway towards even seemingly certain events possibly NOT happening as expected .  /end rant

That's why we need bitcoin.

In the past 10 hours or so, BTC prices dropped from $4,055 to $3,919 (about 3.5%) at its peak drop, and thereafter, we gravitated back to $3,976 (about 2%).  These kinds of price fluctuations are totally within normal fluctuations.  Furthermore, once the price starts going up, sometimes we are going to see fake outs of 15%, 30% and even up to 50%, like we did in 2017.  So, sometimes the fake outs are BIG... just like sometimes we feel secure (like traveling pregnant) and other times we get stuck with a longer term price correction approaching 90% and dragging out for more than a year (could even be 2-3 years) (like getting held captive and not knowing when or if you are going to be released).

I am moar human.  Thank you very much.

My moar human ratt-like obsession with this thread is based on my having had invested in bitcoin and having had created and ongoing attempt to maintain strategies of accumulation, learning and sharing information, around BTC.

Your mouse-like purpose and obsession with this thread is much more questionable in terms of both human-ness and also in terms of why the fuck are you hanging out here with us bitcoin-focused peeps?  In the very minority of your posts that could be argued to be the most relevant to this thread, you talk about how much you believe that bitcoin is NOT the future... o.k. . o.k. o.k... if you really believe that, so fucking what?  Why you need to continue to post about it, if that is really how you feel.  On the other hand, the vast majority of your posts constitute off-topic rants of diversion into various kinds of non-relevant fantasylandia that sucks a few members in... but very few.   

Thanks for that further explanation.  It makes a lot of sense. 

By nature bitcoiners may be a bit more rebellious and there is nothing wrong with that as long as there is some meaningful contributions, so there could be a chance (even if less than 50/50) that his style might fit better here.  I am a bit bothered by the initial seemingly gratuitous and largely irrelevant bashing of the rest of the forum - like bob mentioned. 

Hey kenawak, you are surely entitled to your opinion and approach, and that is kind of my first impression too, based on post history.. and you are likely correct that a leopard is not likely easily to change its spots.  hahahahahaha... and here there is already a pretty solid track record..

I am willing to give him a try, though... even though you have good odds of being correct that he is just another shit stirrer and unable or unwilling to actually even attempt to stay somewhat on topic...

Let's see, let's see... (of course, you are free not to "let's see" .. that's your choice/approach).

Hm? 

Not starting off too well, with these off topic discussions.  I am working on toleration.. and still hoping that you have something interesting to say about BTC, at some point. 

From post history, sounds like a BIG IF.... but hey, gotta give the guy/gal member a chance.  Hopefully, you have some meaningful bitcoin/usd wall observations, mdayonliner.. in other words, welcome....  


Did I prejudge?  Thanks for that clarification, mdayonliner.... looking forward to seeing some of your first posts in this thread that are actually somehow bitcoin related.  Maybe you can pre-empt by providing a synopsis of about bitcoin HODLing history so far?

Yeah, but I was just joking.  I take it back.

I don't feel poor, but I do have some issues that money cannot buy.. so in that regard, sometimes it is good to appreciate what we have and recognize that money cannot buy everything... so in that regard, even though I like to watch the bitcoin price a lot and the bitcoin news, I do have enough money to do a lot of the stuff that I want, already.

On the other hand, I don't have a private plane to fly wherever I like whenever I like.. and that would be nice... but whatever.. I should not overthink what I don't have, otherwise, I might start to feel poor, again.

For being new to this thread, you sure do talk a lot of nonsense.  Likely, I overstated my "poor" status, because I was trying to harass bitserve, who had asserted that "we are poor." 

Ultimately, I don't believe that buyers and accumulators of BTC are poor, especially if we have been buying and accumulating for several years.  BTC has been a very well appreciating asset, especially relative to other possible investments. 

Regarding your slave/master framework, these concepts may apply to wage workers, and some of us here are considering various ways to advance to "fuck you" status, which, like you seem to suggest, might be more of a mindset rather than a set condition.  I don't think that we have to place ourselves as one or the other, but if we consider merely being master over ourselves, our finances and our lives, then that might be enough to have achieved "fuck you" status, perhaps?

On the other hand, there are likely always going to be some things that are out of our control, so sometimes, it is good to figure out ways to live with ourselves and to recognize our powers and limitations, including some things that we might not be able to control.. thinking about failing health conditions that might cause some demise and dependencies depending on how some of those kinds of limitations might evolve or affect us personally.

Especially when "we" are still poor.  Someone told me that, recently.   

Yes, that makes sense.



The BTC market remains strong enough that we do not need to consider whether we are contributing to it, exactly.  So, in that regard, each of us should be attempting to tailor our BTC plan/strategy, as best that we can, to our own personal situation which involves our other investments, cash flow, views about bitcoin, risk tolerance, skills and timeline.

Like you suggest, I agree that HODLers do not hurt bitcoin, and they actually cause BTC price bottoms because they are not going to sell, which causes limitations regarding how low BTC price manipulators are able to push down the price before it can no longer go down, which means the price goes up from such point.   

Hopefully, I won't beat the topic to death, before then, because I really like the topic because it allows HODLers to figure out his/her own level and no matter what s/he is going to have to engage in a certain amount of BTC price projection in order to attempt to be realistic about the matter.  Also, it should be personally interesting and applicable to every single person participating in this thread because either s/he: 1) has already achieved such status, 2) has a target amount and/or plan to get there, 3) does not have a plan to get there but would like to get there or 4) would not mind getting there, but believes that his/her amount of BTC accumulating ability is never going to contribute to achieving such status.   

If such HODLer is not interested in 1, 2, 3 or 4 above, then I would wonder why s/he is looking at this thread.

Also, with such topic, there is a bit of a forcing to attempt to figure out: A) what kinds of numbers a HODLer would need to achieve and B) is such plan realistic based on likely events, timeline and personal financial circumstances.

It's a great topic, and also seems to facilitate BTC/USD wall observances, too in order to attempt to figure out if there is any progress towards such fuck you status, if not yet achieved.



I personally believe that there could be an accounting of entry level "fuck you" status based on what is the lowest price that the HODLer believes that BTC would reasonably hovering into and causing him/her to have to cash out some coins at that price, and that would be the base of calculations. 

Now, I am using the current low of $3,122 as such base BTC price to calculate my entry level starting point and $1million as the base amount that allows $3,333 per month passive income.  Thereafter, I employed a conservative traditional financial presumption that on average BTC would rise in price by 4% per year (which allows a withdrawal of 4% per year or 1% per quarter). 

So, $1,000,000 / $3,122 = 320.307495 BTC as starting out level of "fuck you" status, and in the future, hopefully, our starting base will change based on a rising price of BTC (no guarantees of course).   It seems to me that if we remain concerned about whether the bottom is "in" or not, then we should be using our most conservative numbers for our base starting amount in order that we would not say "fuck you" before we are actually really ready, willing and able to say it (without having to come crawling back with our tails between our legs).

Note: I recall the first time around, I calculated used a higher price (current BTC price, I believe), and I ended up arriving at around 250 BTC for fuck you status, but I think that using the anticipated bottom price of $3,122 is a bit more realistic because I would rather error on the side of conservative, and I am still only in the 48% confidence that the bottom is "in" thinking.  Of course, if there is a higher level of confidence that the bottom is in, and then a HODLer should use some kind of higher bottom number that would presumably be lower than the current price to calculate reasonable "fuck you" entry levels.

Thanks for providing some polling variety in recent times, infofront.

From the totals, I do see that there was a bit of a scattering of the perception of achievement of "fuck you" status results, which seems to have been a considerable amount of poetic license from pollsters regarding interpretation, and even you, in your answer, stated a presumption of an upcoming upwards BTC price movement that caused your answer based on a speculated future rather than present actuality.       

Don't jinx us blurry head.

We are having a good time, here.

Thanks for the clarification about the location in "historical A" or "end of".  So I think that I more clearly understand your thinking.


And, thanks for this explanation too.  I had thought that our last price surge to $20k might have zapped you out of some of your bearish skepticisms, but no problem... at least, if you disclose from where you are coming, then we will end up (likely) recognizing that you were wrong at some , when the s-curve exponential growth likely continues... and the spurt to $1.3k and then the next spurt to $20k should have been decent signs of such s-curve exponential growth/adoption. 

Anyhow, surely it is fair enough for you to have those kinds of skeptical views of BTC and even to invest accordingly (careful not to risk too much on shorting, rather than merely selling BTC), and when BTC prices move between $12k and $18k in the coming year or two, you might start to reconsider your thinking, even if there is likely going to continue to be a lot of price volatility in that $12k and $18k price range.

Maybe you will adjust your perspective, and maybe not.. that is your freedom.. and then when BTC prices go shooting past $20k (which is going to become much more likely once we get within about 20% of previous ATH.. maybe getting above $17.5k or so is going to cause a kind of likely unstoppable upwards momentum).... That shooting past $20k is likely going to bring us to at least into the $30k area (and hopefully beyond), that will provide another opportunity for you to reconsider the lack of s-curve adoption in BTC, from your perspective. 

hahahaha.. I would say, "sucks to be you," but you are likely going to have several opportunities in the coming years to adjust your views.. to become somewhat less skeptical.. and seems that you have done decently well in BTC investments in the past.. at least some of your calls seem to have been fairly decent, even if the long-term bearishness does not really seem to be represented in bitcoin's long view - even though there have been some bearish bitcoin periods, too (2014 for sure and 2018.. but overall bullish, if you consider the whole period 2013 to 2019 with at least 3x or more profits, depending on various entry points that are still quite UP)..

hahahahahaha

An admission from the V8.

hahahahaha... I don't exactly hate it, but I could call it "interesting" "mumbo jumbo"... so you gave the scenario for if "we" happen to be in an "historical B," which does not sound like a very good scenario, especially because such scenario results in prolonged prices lower than today's prices and also lower than the already December low of $3,122,  but what if "we" happen to be in a "historical A" instead of an "historical B," then what should we expect (not that I should believe any of this chart woo woo )?

By the way, does your "historical A" and "historical B" discussion points account for BTC's likely ongoing s-curve adoption? which likely results in exponential price rises through adoption? or do your "historical A" / "B" scenarios assume a certain level of BTC market maturity?

Sometimes it is difficult to determine a schedule for various dates for the next events - including distribution possibilities or resolution of outstanding claims in order that distribution might be authorized.

In that regard, the above reddit thread seems to imply that the next event is the next October 1, which is the next scheduled creditors' meeting.  Yet, in the meantime, it appears that on April 26, there is some kind of credit distribution schedule that is due to the court, according to something mentioned in the below linked article.

https://qoinbook.com/news/mt-gox-whale-secures-rehabilitation-trustee-balance-of-623-million/

>>>>"A proposal to outline the timeline and terms of the civil rehabilitation process is due on April 26."<<<<<

Thingies b call words inside dee interwebs make many much moars senses when jotted down w/ boldies.  BIGGIE helpses 2.   

Yes.  One thing is having a set of BTC accumulation targets and a tentative plan for achieving "fuck you" status, and another thing is realizing that there exists a kind of BTC price dynamics that might cause greater abilities to accumulate more BTC and therefore increasing the likelihood of reaching preconceived targets and/or reaching such targets sooner.