I was in a particularly harsh mood yesterday, but I pretty much stand by what I say.
yes you were. i was surprised b/c usually you're pretty level headed and impartial. everyone's entitled to their opinion, i guess.
What I did not do was accuse you of stating exactly what was going to happen exactly when. Keeping up with your copious work is challenging and not interesting enough for me to actually do in a nit-picky sort of way. My sense is that you do tend toward shorter term calls than I usually feel comfortable with, but I am most interested in dealing with relatively long time horizon.
its funny that ppl criticize how many posts i have made. most of them were in the first gold thread i put up with miscreanity being so engaging.
he knows me better than anyone else here in that we'd have back and forths multiple times per day for months back then flushing out deep theories about how the system works. lots of ppl enjoyed that thread and this one for that matter. the fact that he has acknowledged my calls is a testimony as far as i'm concerned since he really knows how i think despite the fact that he disagrees. (i'm betting he's hating that he complimented me right now.
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i would think that many posts would act like a perpetual record to toe the line on one's prediction or opinions. thats how i see it. i don't mind putting myself out there or being so brazen enough to predict what i think is going to happen. why? its b/c i have
confidence in my work and have a good track record in calling corners going back to the 10/07 top in the Dow and 3/09 bottom in the Dow which i haven't bothered to talk about b/c its not verifiable. my calls here though are. i probably shouldn't make any predictions to be safe and conservative but thats the how one distinguishes him/her self from the crowd. i also like the idea of helping the little guy fleece the Wall St traders who are rigging this stock mkt. its high time we put this play into reverse.
i also realize one cannot be so self confident that he gets hurt being cocky. my subscribers now realize i have timelines at which i'm willing to call myself wrong.
as far as short term, i've been very clear that i held the metals from 2005-11. thats long in my book. i still think they topped last year. also "short term" depends on your definition. for stocks i do not day trade and my calls are over an intermediate term which can last many months. the swings btwn these periods can be dramatic so it is worth trading those time periods imo. to each his own.
As for my expertise in investing, I will be the first to admit that I have none. I have observations about things which I gladly spit out, but I rarely state with any certainty what they actually mean since I don't really know. To the extent that my own personal investment decisions have so far worked out fairly well, that is due to my having the luxury of being able to be patient and not everyone has such a luxury.
i've said before that its very important when investing in something like Bitcoin to understand how the outside world of investing works. Bitcoin does not exist in a vacuum. numerous factors will affect its future. its my goal to understand how those influences will work.
My conceptions on 'money', 'currency' of various types, 'value', 'risk', etc are not something that I could just start drafting up as a thesis from a cold start, and if I did, it would not likely occur on this thread of this board. Nor would it be particularly useful to anyone. As the right combination of interest, time, and opportunity arises, I'll possibly produce comments about some of these things. Or continue to do so I should say. I've avoided some recent comments on other threads for lack of one component or another, but some of them had me shaking my head and led to comment that personal finance lessons are a poor model to help understand global monetary systems and the entities who operate within them.
everyone on this board has an opinion about how money works. thats exactly why we're here. you would do well to express your views in this area as we all would be willing to learn something new.
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