Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[tvbcof]

A lot of the KWN regulars including especially the most bullish were saying anything but 'up, up, up' when you supposedly made your genius call to dump gold.  There was closer to universal consensus that it was a time to expect something of a blow-off in fact.  To be fair, a lot of these same folks called the bottom of the correction to soon and to high.

on the contrary.  the GDX was ramping into a breakout in mid August early Sept and guys like Sinclair were saying that FINALLY the gold stocks were being recognized for the value they deserve and that they were going to propel the metal to extraordinary heights.  they never recognized the technical "head fake":

I never gave a damn about stock and did not pay attention to who said what about them.  I care about physical, and I remember getting a stronger sense of trepidation every week from Trader Dan in particular that something ominous (albeit temporary) was approaching.  Since I had no intent to unload any PM's for years, I didn't care very much.

One thing that is crystal clear to me is that if anyone claims to know exactly when exactly what is going to happen, run, don't walk, in the opposite direction.  This holds for Trader Dan, Jim Sinclair, and cypherdoc.

As for Sinclair and mining stock, the message I've gotten from him over the years is to be very cognizant of naked short selling.  I'm wary of that from reading other works and research as well.  It is well beyond my ability to protect my interests if such a problem exists and when it comes to a head if it does exist.  That is to say, to be one of the few who make it through the escape hatch.  That and other reasons are why I hold zero shares of stock in any company traded on US exchanges.

I don't understand 'cycles', but nor do I understand voo-doo.  Both have their practitioners and followers, and many of latter will shell out items of value for the service of the former.  To each his own.

to insinuate a correlation btwn the two is evidence of a closed mind.

No, it is evidence that my old habit of trolling dies hard.  I'll award myself several points for getting a response (though it is a hollow victory considering your, um, generative capacity) but I'll award you a point for the 'closed mind' comment

I run across exceedingly few sources who share my understanding of money (right or wrong though it may be.)  One or two on KWN, but they don't usually get heavily into the subject.  I really cannot think of anyone on this forum. 

perhaps you should consider sharing it with us.

Considering...nope.

Actually I have put more than a little thought into more than a few of my posts here on this board regarding the set of topics (which are vast and complex.)  I'll continue to do so from time to time as long as I continue to post here.

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[Dusty]

Don't look now but i see this as a huge potential problem for your thesis: [ image removed ]

cypherdoc, your graphs are great but if you could accompany them with some explication on what to look at and how to interpret them I thing it would be useful for the ones among us that are not so used to technical analysis :-)

[cypherdoc]

One thing that is crystal clear to me is that if anyone claims to know exactly when exactly what is going to happen, run, don't walk, in the opposite direction.  This holds for Trader Dan, Jim Sinclair, and cypherdoc.

Wow, being exceptionally harsh tonite.  If you look carefully enough, you might be able to see that those of us who do technical analysis never make those claims ever.  We are humble enough to know that no one knows the future for sure but if one does their homework enough one might be able to identify a high probability situation that may go their way.

If i'm wrong i'm wrong, if i'm right i'm right.  The charts I throw up as a look back are just that; an assessment of how I've done.

There are clearly a lot of young people who don't understand investing as well as you do (cough) so the subscription service I run is an attempt to help them along.  I've said before that all I'd like to do is help my fellow bitcoiners not lose money in the rigged stock markets.  I've posted for almost a year now putting up my best opinions and analysis never asking for anything.  Its a lot of work in the end and I only decided to do the subscription service 5 days ago.

I seriously don't need the pittance I decided to charge. I like it only because it gives me affirmation that people might find my views worth listening to or that I might actually be helping them.  In that sense its been very gratifying.

seriously you should share your ideas on money with us.  Your bold statements have piqued my curiosity.

[cypherdoc]

silver being taken to the woodshed.  gold not so hot either.  GDX carnage.

[silverbox]

Minor overreaction to the Fed pretending everything is rosy.  It'll come back up.

[SkRRJyTC]

I think I am going to concede that I was wrong.  My play money stock portfolio is getting raped today...

Good call cypherdoc!

[piotr_n]

yeah, good call indeed. eventually it finally happened.
just please make sure to also let us know when to buy it back, since I have enough of a toilet paper already.
I'm assuming, not tomorrow yet?

[tvbcof]

One thing that is crystal clear to me is that if anyone claims to know exactly when exactly what is going to happen, run, don't walk, in the opposite direction.  This holds for Trader Dan, Jim Sinclair, and cypherdoc.

Wow, being exceptionally harsh tonite.  If you look carefully enough, you might be able to see that those of us who do technical analysis never make those claims ever.  We are humble enough to know that no one knows the future for sure but if one does their homework enough one might be able to identify a high probability situation that may go their way.

If i'm wrong i'm wrong, if i'm right i'm right.  The charts I throw up as a look back are just that; an assessment of how I've done.

There are clearly a lot of young people who don't understand investing as well as you do (cough) so the subscription service I run is an attempt to help them along.  I've said before that all I'd like to do is help my fellow bitcoiners not lose money in the rigged stock markets.  I've posted for almost a year now putting up my best opinions and analysis never asking for anything.  Its a lot of work in the end and I only decided to do the subscription service 5 days ago.

I seriously don't need the pittance I decided to charge. I like it only because it gives me affirmation that people might find my views worth listening to or that I might actually be helping them.  In that sense its been very gratifying.

seriously you should share your ideas on money with us.  Your bold statements have piqued my curiosity.

I was in a particularly harsh mood yesterday, but I pretty much stand by what I say.  What I did not do was accuse you of stating exactly what was going to happen exactly when.  Keeping up with your copious work is challenging and not interesting enough for me to actually do in a nit-picky sort of way.  My sense is that you do tend toward shorter term calls than I usually feel comfortable with, but I am most interested in dealing with relatively long time horizon.

I will say that your notable animosity toward PM's remains somewhat baffling and has piqued my interest and some other peoples as well it seems.  Only time will tell how that is going to work out for you and your embryonic flock.  I expect that your chances of that position working out extraordinarily will be only when measured against Bitcoin at a particular snapshot in time, and even then it will be a long-shot.

As for my expertise in investing, I will be the first to admit that I have none.  I have observations about things which I gladly spit out, but I rarely state with any certainty what they actually mean since I don't really know.  To the extent that my own personal investment decisions have so far worked out fairly well, that is due to my having the luxury of being able to be patient and not everyone has such a luxury.

I am very drawn to 'open source' and as a consequence, 'closed source' does put a bad taste in my mouth.  It is very unlikely that I would subscribe to your newsletter or anyone elses' on any topic for that reason among others.

My conceptions on 'money', 'currency' of various types, 'value', 'risk', etc are not something that I could just start drafting up as a thesis from a cold start, and if I did, it would not likely occur on this thread of this board.  Nor would it be particularly useful to anyone.  As the right combination of interest, time, and opportunity arises, I'll possibly produce comments about some of these things.  Or continue to do so I should say.  I've avoided some recent comments on other threads for lack of one component or another, but some of them had me shaking my head and led to comment that personal finance lessons are a poor model to help understand global monetary systems and the entities who operate within them.

[silverbox]

this thread was started 3/13

Bitcoin  5.40

Gold 1690.


today 4/4

Bitcoin 4.93   (down ~9%)

Gold 1620  (down ~4%)


4% is a Collapse?  Everyone's congrating on a great call?? 

For a 4% drop in a 3 week timespan.......

I don't get it. 

Minor pullback.

[piotr_n]

For the record: I was being sarcastic.
But for people who play with a lever - it was eventually a good call - at least as for today... the question is: what's next?

As for my needs, the minus few percent doesn't really matter.
I need to sell 2 ounces anyway to pay off my bills for the next month.
When I get $200 less from it... well, I guess I'm gonna have to cut the hooker budget for the next month a bit

[SkRRJyTC]

My congrats was due to my play money stock market portfolio taking a big hit today and seeing S&P finish under 1400 for the third time in three weeks...

[cypherdoc]

I was in a particularly harsh mood yesterday, but I pretty much stand by what I say.  

yes you were.  i was surprised b/c usually you're pretty level headed and impartial.  everyone's entitled to their opinion, i guess.

What I did not do was accuse you of stating exactly what was going to happen exactly when.  Keeping up with your copious work is challenging and not interesting enough for me to actually do in a nit-picky sort of way.  My sense is that you do tend toward shorter term calls than I usually feel comfortable with, but I am most interested in dealing with relatively long time horizon.

its funny that ppl criticize how many posts i have made.  most of them were in the first gold thread i put up with miscreanity being so engaging.  he knows me better than anyone else here in that we'd have back and forths multiple times per day for months back then flushing out deep theories about how the system works.  lots of ppl enjoyed that thread and this one for that matter.  the fact that he has acknowledged my calls is a testimony as far as i'm concerned since he really knows how i think despite the fact that he disagrees.  (i'm betting he's hating that he complimented me right now. )

i would think that many posts would act like a perpetual record to toe the line on one's prediction or opinions.  thats how i see it.  i don't mind putting myself out there or being so brazen enough to predict what i think is going to happen.  why?  its b/c i have confidence in my work and have a good track record in calling corners going back to the 10/07 top in the Dow and 3/09 bottom in the Dow which i haven't bothered to talk about b/c its not verifiable.  my calls here though are.  i probably shouldn't make any predictions to be safe and conservative but thats the how one distinguishes him/her self from the crowd.  i also like the idea of helping the little guy fleece the Wall St traders who are rigging this stock mkt.  its high time we put this play into reverse.  

i also realize one cannot be so self confident that he gets hurt being cocky.  my subscribers now realize i have timelines at which i'm willing to call myself wrong.  

as far as short term, i've been very clear that i held the metals from 2005-11.  thats long in my book.  i still think they topped last year.  also "short term" depends on your definition.  for stocks i do not day trade and my calls are over an intermediate term which can last many months.  the swings btwn these periods can be dramatic so it is worth trading those time periods imo.  to each his own.

As for my expertise in investing, I will be the first to admit that I have none.  I have observations about things which I gladly spit out, but I rarely state with any certainty what they actually mean since I don't really know.  To the extent that my own personal investment decisions have so far worked out fairly well, that is due to my having the luxury of being able to be patient and not everyone has such a luxury.

i've said before that its very important when investing in something like Bitcoin to understand how the outside world of investing works. Bitcoin does not exist in a vacuum.  numerous factors will affect its future.  its my goal to understand how those influences will work.

My conceptions on 'money', 'currency' of various types, 'value', 'risk', etc are not something that I could just start drafting up as a thesis from a cold start, and if I did, it would not likely occur on this thread of this board.  Nor would it be particularly useful to anyone.  As the right combination of interest, time, and opportunity arises, I'll possibly produce comments about some of these things.  Or continue to do so I should say.  I've avoided some recent comments on other threads for lack of one component or another, but some of them had me shaking my head and led to comment that personal finance lessons are a poor model to help understand global monetary systems and the entities who operate within them.

everyone on this board has an opinion about how money works.  thats exactly why we're here.  you would do well to express your views in this area as we all would be willing to learn something new.

[cypherdoc]

this thread was started 3/13

Bitcoin  5.40

Gold 1690.


today 4/4

Bitcoin 4.93   (down ~9%)

Gold 1620  (down ~4%)


4% is a Collapse?  Everyone's congrating on a great call??  

For a 4% drop in a 3 week timespan.......

I don't get it.  

Minor pullback.

there was a particularly bad piece of news on Bitcoin that came out on 5/19 that i had no way of knowing would happen.  very sorry silverbox.

[cypherdoc]

i love this:  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/wont-be-fooled-week-either-retail-celebrates-highest-stock-prices-2007-biggest-redemption-2012

[cypherdoc]

=================
The following is courtesy of KingWorldNews.com:

Today legendary trader and investor Jim Sinclair told King World News the gold market has turned into a coiled spring that will be extraordinarily explosive on the upside.  Sinclair also said that central banks have been aggressively accumulating gold because it is going to part of the monetary solution.  But first, here is what Sinclair had to say about the gold market:  “The attempt to keep (the gold market) from moving higher, creates, by nature, a spring, a coil as it were in markets.  If the spirit of the gold market could have been broken, it certainly would have been broken down at the $1,500 level.  This thing is turning into a spring, into a coil, and when it goes it’s going to be something to behold on the upside.  Both in the shares and in gold itself.”
==================

My observation over the years is that when we have a year or so of chop, the last few months of the chop fall below the preceding trend line, then a new trend line with a greater slope comes into existence.  Looks to me like we are getting to toward the end of this latest choppy pattern.

One way or another Sinclair was, by happenstance, one of the first people in the PM space who I started paying attention to, and in spite of his 'outlandish' claims that gold would hit $1650 which most people wrote off as completely bonkers at the time.  Even if he does make a wrong call and I take a hit by listening to him it is most unlikely that it would erase more than a minor fraction of the gains which I can thank him, in part, for my realizing.

Sinclair is the guy who rode the last bull and stepped off at the top of the market in '80.  I don't know if he was as free with his information and advice at that time since I was not around, but the guy seems to have an understanding of the markets.  Does he have other motivations?  It would be foolish to ignore the possibility.  The same could be said for the provider of any financial advice however.

your timing was impeccable:  

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/4/3_Jim_Sinclair_files/Jim%20Sinclair%204%3A3%3A2012.mp3

Paraphrase: "gold and the shares are coiled to spring upwards in an explosive manner.  in my opinion, 1630 was THE BOTTOM."

Oops.

[tvbcof]

your timing was impeccable:  

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/4/3_Jim_Sinclair_files/Jim%20Sinclair%204%3A3%3A2012.mp3

Paraphrase: "gold and the shares are coiled to spring upwards in an explosive manner.  in my opinion, 1630 was THE BOTTOM."

Oops.

I guess I'll feel free to poke fun at you if any of your calls go off by 1% for a matter of hours then?

You may or may not have noticed, but the USDX got up to almost .80 for a time today.  I'm surprised that PM's held up as they did to be honest, and I doubt that I am alone.  USDX seems to ratchet back and forth while PM's just keep on ratcheting up.  I can live with that.

If somehow the rest of the world cannot hold the USDX up (by devaluing their own currencies) and it gets down to .72 again, it will be very interesting to see where the price of Gold and Silver will be.  Any guesses?  Or do you suppose that it is impossible to see those kinds of USDX numbers again?

[cypherdoc]

your timing was impeccable:  

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/4/3_Jim_Sinclair_files/Jim%20Sinclair%204%3A3%3A2012.mp3

Paraphrase: "gold and the shares are coiled to spring upwards in an explosive manner.  in my opinion, 1630 was THE BOTTOM."

Oops.

I guess I'll feel free to poke fun at you if any of your calls go off by 1% for a matter of hours then?

You may or may not have noticed, but the USDX got up to almost .80 for a time today.  I'm surprised that PM's held up as they did to be honest, and I doubt that I am alone.  USDX seems to ratchet back and forth while PM's just keep on ratcheting up.  I can live with that.

If somehow the rest of the world cannot hold the USDX up (by devaluing their own currencies) and it gets down to .72 again, it will be very interesting to see where the price of Gold and Silver will be.  Any guesses?  Or do you suppose that it is impossible to see those kinds of USDX numbers again?

sorry, i just couldn't help myself to showing that the pundit you just quoted can be wrong too (perhaps short term but i doubt it) as i'm sure i will be in the future.

it just that he sounds like an evangelist at this point.  some of these guys like Eric Sprott are like 80-100% invested in the metals.  thats an extraordinary risk as far as i'm concerned.  when your investment thesis depends on a criminal like Ben doing what you want him to do, i think you're asking for problems.

we all know that the CB's have control of the printing press.  why would they use it to help ordinary ppl out of their debts via inflation and devalue their own wealth which has just got done going exponential via the bailout money <-> debt swap?

[miscreanity]

the fact that he has acknowledged my calls is a testimony as far as i'm concerned since he really knows how i think despite the fact that he disagrees.  (i'm betting he's hating that he complimented me right now. )

No hate - credit where due

Now you just have to make the distinction in dynamics between paper & physical

[tvbcof]

sorry, i just couldn't help myself to showing that the pundit you just quoted can be wrong too (perhaps short term but i doubt it) as i'm sure i will be in the future.

No harm no foul.  I remember the dark days of $2.change BTC when it seems like you and I were about the only two people supporting it's potential.

it just that he sounds like an evangelist at this point.  some of these guys like Eric Sprott are like 80-100% invested in the metals.  thats an extraordinary risk as far as i'm concerned.

I'm all for diversifying and the only reason I don't personally don't practice what I preach more than I do is that I have relatively few responsibilities and the ability to take a financial hit better than a lot of people.

I have to point out that it seems to me like you are promoting more of a position in bitcoin than I feel is prudent for most people.  I'm a big fan of Bitcoin, but I cannot see how it is anything but a monster speculative investment (if it can even be called an investment per-se.)  Much more risky than PM's even if one does not believe in them.  Since I don't subscribe to your letter or whatever, I don't know the percentages you recommend for Bitcoin, but it _feels_ like you are suggesting a more heavy weighting than most people probably should take (in my opinion.)

when your investment thesis depends on a criminal like Ben doing what you want him to do, i think you're asking for problems.
we all know that the CB's have control of the printing press.  why would they use it to help ordinary ppl out of their debts via inflation and devalue their own wealth which has just got done going exponential via the bailout money <-> debt swap?

Believe it or not, I actually consider Bernanke more of a wizard than a criminal (though I am unconvinced that it's actually his brain doing the processing.)  I am in some awe that he(?) has been able to keep things going to the extent that he has, but he has no real chance for long term success.  Kind of like Sisyphus and his task.

When Ben finally loses his battle with the rock I want to have control of some PM's first and foremost.  I want to also have control of the BTC as a another tool in my toolbox, and also as a side-bet with huge upside potential.

[cypherdoc]

sorry, i just couldn't help myself to showing that the pundit you just quoted can be wrong too (perhaps short term but i doubt it) as i'm sure i will be in the future.

No harm no foul.  I remember the dark days of $2.change BTC when it seems like you and I were about the only two people supporting it's potential.

good memory.  i remember those times too.

it just that he sounds like an evangelist at this point.  some of these guys like Eric Sprott are like 80-100% invested in the metals.  thats an extraordinary risk as far as i'm concerned.

I'm all for diversifying and the only reason I don't personally don't practice what I preach more than I do is that I have relatively few responsibilities and the ability to take a financial hit better than a lot of people.

I have to point out that it seems to me like you are promoting more of a position in bitcoin than I feel is prudent for most people.  I'm a big fan of Bitcoin, but I cannot see how it is anything but a monster speculative investment (if it can even be called an investment per-se.)  Much more risky than PM's even if one does not believe in them.  Since I don't subscribe to your letter or whatever, I don't know the percentages you recommend for Bitcoin, but it _feels_ like you are suggesting a more heavy weighting than most people probably should take (in my opinion.)

careful reading will reveal i have never recommended a particular % position in Bitcoin.  i just advocate for it b/c i believe it will change the landscape of money sooner than later.  i vaguely recall one person asking me once about what my % position is but i never advocate a %. 

when your investment thesis depends on a criminal like Ben doing what you want him to do, i think you're asking for problems.
we all know that the CB's have control of the printing press.  why would they use it to help ordinary ppl out of their debts via inflation and devalue their own wealth which has just got done going exponential via the bailout money <-> debt swap?

Believe it or not, I actually consider Bernanke more of a wizard than a criminal (though I am unconvinced that it's actually his brain doing the processing.)  I am in some awe that he(?) has been able to keep things going to the extent that he has, but he has no real chance for long term success.  Kind of like Sisyphus and his task.

When Ben finally loses his battle with the rock I want to have control of some PM's first and foremost.  I want to also have control of the BTC as a another tool in my toolbox, and also as a side-bet with huge upside potential.

it is amazing he's kept it together but i think he is about to lose control once again.