You notice how those bottoms get smaller as you go up the pyramid (or pile), so perhaps a few more levels UP could result in some "acceptable" bottoms, perhaps?

Thanks for pointing that out, sirazimuth.  Whoaza.... I did not even realize the severity of my word-repetition devolution.  Sucks to have my creativity lacking brain.  Like the horse in animal farm, I will work harder.

Fair enough, and I guess I already made the point that I had wanted to make regarding presuming something to be part of the current actual price range when it has not even happened yet. 

We have not seen $2.5k since July of 2017.

Huh?

I have trouble with this above framework because it incorporates too many demands on wanting to get your way out of the BTC market, even though such BTC market and price remains almost completely out of your control.

Your actions are within your control, but the price is not.  So the price is merely a kind of hypothesis in terms of what you believe it will do in the future (short term and long term) and your betting on possible and probable price direction(s).  If you are ONLY betting on UP, then you are likely to get yourself into trouble both psychologically and financially.

Patience remains a key component... but also action taking that continues to prepare yourself both financially and psychologically for either price direction. 

These stagnant (or boring) periods (like our current situation), are great periods for regrouping and thinking about various ways that you might want to personally better prepare yourself for either BTC price direction without, hopefully, taking too many additional risks in either direction... while at the same time, perhaps increasing your actual risk-taking too (of course, with a way out in case such additional risk-taking does not play out how you had anticipated to be most probable of directions).

Looks like healthy thinking to me, except for the self-doubting part.

Oh my!!!   You are thinking $2.5k?   We have only gotten down to $3,122 so far.  I was hoping that, perhaps, $3,200 (or maybe $3,300) to $5k would be the BTC price range for the next year and maybe 18 months at the most, and thereafter we would probably have decent chances to break above $5k. 

Furthermore, my "hope" was that the bottom would be in, even though I accept that there remains a slightly greater than a 50% chance that the bottom is not in... In other words, I don't want to presume that the current range goes down to $2.5k which would also presume that the bottom is not "in" even though I accept that there are greater than 50% chances that we could have a lower bottom - especially since such lower bottom has not happened yet.. which means that there are decent chances (maybe 45% to 48%) that no further bottom is going to happen in this correction cycle.

I think that there are a lot of ways to frame the matter, and my point above was mostly to discuss initial investment.  If someone is a nocoiner or only has a small portion of his/her investment in bitcoin, then a major consideration should be about how much to initially invest into bitcoin.

Of course, if anyone has gone through periods of considerable BTC exponential growth such as 2013 or 2016/2017 (funny first one had two bubbles in one year, and second one took two years to play out), then there are going to be considerations about whether or not the investor should reallocate to bring distribution of investments back in line with the original investment allocations.   Certainly, tough decisions to make, and personally, I tend to believe that it can be quite prudent to perform some reallocation; however, in bitcoin if you have achieved disproportional allocation in bitcoin due to BTC price appreciation, then there may be less of a justification to actually reallocate back to original percentages - and the equity that you have built in bitcoin causes a certain amount of justification to continue with much higher allocations in BTC because the BTC portion mostly becomes a kind of icing on the cake and a kind of house money, and if you had been investing into BTC with money that you were willing to lose, then you should still be able to continue to sustain your lifestyle with your other non-btc investments without taking drastic measures to remove BTC investment value.

On the other hand, if you started investing into bitcoin when BTC prices were much higher than they are now, and your current BTC portfolio is in the negative, then there is likely little to NO need to change your investment approach, and in fact it may become easier to end up investing in the higher end of the range of the 5% to 10% of value because if the BTC price is in a kind of falling trend relative to the rest of your portfolio, then putting the equal amount of money that you had been putting into BTC might cause your total amount into BTC to more easily gravitate towards the higher end of the 5 to 10% range without any considerable effort from you or even any feeling of additional risk (since, hopefully, you are investing with money that you could afford to lose - if BTC were to go to zero). 

That's my perspective of some considerations of whether reallocation might be considered, and the kinds of calculations that BTC HODLers/accumulators should be attempting to account in terms of their own financial circumstances - including cashflow, other investments, timeline, risk tolerance and how much time s/he wants to spend playing around with his/her investment (which might include buying/selling some on price swings to attempt to ameliorate some of the extremes and to hopefully profit from likely ongoing BTC price volatility).

Thanks for sharing some of your back and forth with your financial advisor.  Recently, I have kind of gotten into the 5% to 10% recommendation area for people, but I still stick with the conservative 1% as you mentioned as kind of a bare (bear?) minimum..

In any case, it seems that we continue to be really early adopters in terms of BTC, and most financial advisors are going to be negative or dismissive about BTC, so it is good that you have some kind of a dialogue going with your financial advisor even though it is likely that he has a bit of a financial biased against BTC since there are very few BTC financial instruments in BTC in which they could recommend BTC and that they can also makes some money too (on fees).

Still, also contrary to one of your interests of your financial advisor is that one of the best and most powerful ways to invest in bitcoin is directly, rather than going through a financial advisor, which, in the future, may cause you to wonder about why you are investing much of anything through your "financial advisor" and allowing that third party to take fees from you and likely to be underperforming your BTC investment(s).

O.k.  Your anxiety comes off as somewhat self-induced.  Any of us who have been in bitcoin for a decent amount of time and even watching its volatility over the years, understand that even though bitcoin is considered to be highly volatile, such volatility hardly comes on any kind of schedule, so in that regard, it frequently will feel as if bitcoin is a lot less volatile than it is and for seeming extended periods of time of seemingly low volatility.

There is an expression "make hay when its sunny" and in that regard, you cannot really control the weather either, but you can attempt to modify your activities around it.

By the way, I understand that there can be a lot of excitement and even profit making during BTC price volatility periods, but those volatility periods can become quite anxiety causing too - even when the price goes up way beyond expectations and there is a kind of dilemma about what to do, exactly, at least for many people (likely not everyone).

By my presence in this thread, it can be noticed that even I have difficulties figuring out how to better spend my time, rather than watching the BTC price on at least a several times a day basis, but there can be some relief in certain kinds of lower BTC volatility to get some other shit done.

20 to 40 minutes every day can be good too, and would not be overdoing it for most people..low impact, gets your circulation working which also causes strengthening of many body parts, including back and other joints.  

With any condition, you have to avoid causing too much inflammation, and if you overexercise you can develop inflammation too.. more easily to cause inflammation from overexercising as you get older (especially if you try to do large amounts at once rather than a little every day).  You don't want to get to the point that your exercise level causes too much inflammation and then negates the benefits that you had thought that you had gained from the exercise.


Oh?  looks like you got the walking covered.... gotta just keep dee doggies under control.. perhaps?  Hopefully, you are not doing too much time or distance at any one time, until you build up to recover from the injury. 

It is not good to allow btc price stagnation to cause you to become overly anxious... and stagnation is actually better than having new lows...  .. but even if we get new lows, we should try to NOT allow those kinds of possible BTC price performance(s) to cause us anxiety.

Just consider that there could be two years of down and flat and that is likely among the less good (but probable) scenarios, and there ends up being really decent chances that the BTC price is going to outperform your expectations.

Surely, I would fault the authors of that article, a bit, for lumping cryptos instead of focusing on an attempt to analyze the contributions of bitcoin in terms of sound money considerations, and if they were to truly assess the sound money aspects of bitcoin then they might come to a more aggressive portfolio percentage allocation that would more easily surpass their current 1% ceiling recommendation and might even bring them into being more comfortable with a more aggressive and likely more profitable 5% to 10% allocation range... . hahahahaha

They seem to be focusing on a kind of "tech" investment into "crypto" rather than being able to distinguish sound money aspects of bitcoin which causes some of their acceptance and additional risks of not understanding what is a shit coin and centralized aspects contributing to those likely ongoing pump and dump scams. 

It seems to me that you are locking in our current sideways range as too narrow, and we have already had breaks below $3,800 in recent days... remember a spike bounce down to $3,558 just a few days ago? 

And, surely $4,200 is a BTC price that has been resistance on the top for a bit more than a couple of months, but I would not get too excited, even if BTC prices break 15% or more above $4,200 and then come back crashing back down without hardly any effort.

This is bitcoin where fake outs are quite possible and such fake outs do not take a whole hell-of-a lot of capital to achieve, relatively speaking.

Ooooooo

Secretive. 

I recall that you had said that you were engaged in something like that, and also that you had made a decent quantity of BTC purchases at price levels that were higher than today's price.

As long as you are not screwing yourself with your cashflow by dedicated $200 to $1k every month towards BTC, then you are accumulating a decent quantity of BTC on an ongoing basis with a plan that is much more solid than the vast majority of the world's population that are hardly giving any thought to BTC, and even if some of them are considering a "kind of possible" plan, are not acting on their hypothetical plan. 

In that regard, you are way ahead of the game, even if you might be a little pissed off that you did not buy more in the 3 digit prices and even though you might be a bit pissed off that you could have bought more if you had waited.. but NONE of us really knew.  I was engaging in a similar kind of strategy in 2013/2014/2015.. and really none of us knew then if the price would recover, but my ongoing placement of money in what had then seemed like a bottomless pit, ended up paying off with the passage of time.. and a lot of people would be quite grateful to have been able to have accumulated some BTC in the $200s like I did (even if it was only a small portion of my overall investment and even if some of those BTC had gotten stolen (by hack) later).  The overall package and practice and persistence paid off with a decent amount of profits.

I will admit that your statements that kind of wish for either flat or lower BTC prices in order for you to accumulate more BTC are a bit frustrating for me to hear (read), because I understand your wish and I understand that there are certain ways that you are attempting to achieve personal benefits from a possible negative BTC price situation that could play out... but I personally, don't feel any need, overall to wish for BTC prices to either go down or to remain flat, even if I were in a decently emphasized BTC accumulation phase at the moment, like you are. 

In other words, yes, there seems to be a great benefit on a personal level for you to attempt to accumulate more BTC - but you have also established a decent BTC position too, in order that you benefit on a personal level from BTC UP prices, as well.  In other words, you benefit from any of the short term plays of UP or down or sideways as long as the longer term price outcome of bitcoin prices is higher than today's prices (which seems pretty likely)... Of course, you can still greatly profit from BTC, even if your portfolio does not exactly reach what you would consider to be "fuck you" status, so in that regard, to me, there seems to be little to no need for you to project wishes of either BTC prices to go down or sideways, even if you, personally recognize that you can personally profit from either of those such less bullish short-term outcomes, even if they were to play out that way.

You are expecting way too much if you are planning your finances around a break out to the upside that has less than 50/50 odds of happening. 

In other words, you will be causing your own psychological issues if you are betting on up when the odds are against you.


yes, if anyone is trying to squeeze this lemon for short-term profits out of a directional situation that is questionable at best (but perhaps leaning slightly towards bearish), then you can play around with shorts that may or may not result in various levels of profits.

On the other hand, if anyone has a longer time horizon.. let's say at least 2 years (which is really NOT very long to be investing into an asset), then that person seems to have pretty decent chances that any BTC quantity that s/he buys in our current price range of $3,500 to $4,100 should be decently profitable by then... at least the BTC price should be higher than the purchase price.  Of course, if the time horizon is a bit longer, let's say 5 years, then the odds for higher seem even better.

One thing is having decently good enough trading skills and even resources (access to exchanges) and a systematic approach for shorting BTC that seems viable to play, but probably more than 95% of anyone considering a possible BTC investment plan about getting into BTC does not have those kind of skills nor temperament... perhaps in this thread, the ratio is a bit higher, maybe 15%-ish of the participants could carry out such a shorting plan in a profitable and systematic way?

In other words, for the vast majority of folks, fuck shorting BTC, and just think about BTC accumulating and hodling strategies and tactics.. that involve dollar cost averaging and buying on dips ... even now.. even if the BTC price goes down for another year or more... it is much easier... especially if you have at least two years, and even better if you are ready, willing and able to stick with your BTC buy/hodl strategy for 5 years or more.

If you are constantly plodding away in terms of striving towards BTC accumulation without taking big risks or making BIG bets, while largely betting on long term UP, then seems to me that your chances become better and better that you will have some financial independence and "fuck you" money at some point.. and perhaps such point will come before BTC prices reach $100k?

It seems to me that a necessity of a BTC price of $100k is a bit of a high target - because it is possible that BTC prices will never reach there or that the timeline for reaching there is drug out longer than expected; however, I noticed that even though I had been accumulating BTC since late 2013, for a few years, it was not clear how much I would need BTC prices to become in order that I would feel comfortable in my "fuck you" money achievement. 

Nonetheless, I have found that if a BTC HODLer/accumulator continues to act prudently in accumulation/HODL tactics and strategies and don't take rash actions, the target BTC price for achieving "fuck you" status seems to become lower and lower - merely because little by little the BTC stack amount are going to become higher and higher - especially if you can also figure out prudent ways to profit from BTC volatility, which seems nearly inevitable.

My BTC projection method has tended to be outlined as considerably conservative, so actual BTC price performance (and what actually has happened in my BTC portfolio) has, so far, tended to quite highly outperform the better case (and probable) scenarios of earlier expectations - which causes the "fuck you" BTC price level to become lower and lower the longer that I continue to eat away with my long term plan and strategy without falling into temptations to take rash actions.

Not impossible, but a low likelihood in terms of probabilities...

Probably, if we are going to attempt to be reasonable about it, less than 10% likelihood and perhaps even more reasonable would to give it less than 5% odds.



Probably, at least 50% odds for hitting $3,400 at some point in the next two weeks (once it hits $3,400, then the odds would not be much different for sub-$3,400, depending on how "sub" you are expecting.  I would not predict 80% or 90% for such price movements as some folks seem like they are inclined to put those kinds of certainty levels for such.

1) I am not the only person who does that,
2) It should not be overly complicated because it put the response right below the idea that is being responded to
3) it is probably more complicated and confusing to number like you did, because your response became separated from what you were responding to.
4) I am likely not going to stop how I respond because I think that it is more clear
5) Most of the time, I have no issue regarding how others respond because most of the time, I can a) figure out what they are saying and 2) determine from what they said the extent that I want to respond


o.k.


Hey.. I can completely understand that sometimes there has to exist an adequate enough fiat cushion before there is enough comfort to buy.

I had been going through some non-buying for a while, and also selling below my preferred numbers because I had some cashflow issues and some expenses that could NOT be put off.  In essence, I had taken some chances by NOT shaving off a bit of profits in the supra $6k territory, so I became inconvenienced by selling some coins below $6k.. It was a decently small portion of my total BTC investment (probably less than 10%, but could even be less than 5%, but I am NOT completely clear with the various ways that I could clarify the calculations regarding how I dealt with the whole cashflow situation).  I was pretty happy with the spike down to $3,650 a couple of days ago that almost immediately bounced back up to $3,800, because it triggered some decent sized buybacks of mine that only became possible because BTC prices have been hovering down in this largely $3,400 to $4,200 price arena for so long and some of my cashflow is sorting itself out and giving me some adequate cushion to justify resetting a decent number of my buy orders.



That is what I am saying too, and part of the reasons for my inquiries is because reassessment can develop with the passage, but still might not justify buying BTC unless you are able to figure out a way that a cushion is sufficiently created... just like your assessments and intentions for possible reassessments seem to be allowing.


Another reason that could justify buying on the way UP rather than buying on the way DOWN is that if you are largely a HODLer that has taken losses on the previous DOWNwards price moves,  when BTC prices go up, the whole value of your assets (most importantly bitcoin holdings) has gone up, and therefore, in some ways has caused a value cushion that gives you enough value to justify buying moar BTC.

Who is Diar?  In other words, from where is that data, and chart coming?