100x?

when?


Two more halvenings  plus a few years..?  maybe 8-10 years?


Are you actually planning on the 100x, or are you happy with BTC, even if 100x does not happen?

I'm thinking that I am going to begin a 4% per year cashing out in 4-5 years?   My cashing out will happen based on a timeline, rather than based on BTC price because I am thinking that pretty much, I will be able to begin to cash out 4% per year in perpetuity and live off of it., and I don't expect BTC prices to be lower than today in 4-5 yars.  Does not matter what the price is, just cash out 1% every quarter. 

I am expecting, at minimum, the BTC price will be higher than it is today... accounting for an average BTC price appreciation of ... at least 1% every quarter... which would bring BTC prices to be even higher than $4.5k, at minimum...  in 4-5 years.

Now, if the BTC price is shooting towards another 100x.. from here, then that's fine, too.  It causes the cashing out to be 100x higher, at some point...  Accordingly, I will just keep cashing out my 1% per quarter, and I might have to buy a yacht with some of those extra (icing on the cake) 100x higher than expected proceeds.  So, for example, if I had planned to cash out about $3k per quarter, then I would be cashing out $300k per quarter... Seems a bit too much for me, but I will figure out a way to adapt..

I will go with the flow, and hopefully still have time to post here in this thread because I don't plan to get out of BTC, just to have a "constant cashing out that does not depreciate the principle plan". hahahahaha.

In a few years, gonna be nice, for us current BTC HODLers/accumulators.

Oh my!!!!!!   LTC pumping, now?  


Snap out of it, man.  Otherwise, will have to post another batman gif.   

I am having a little bit of a problem with your $871k to be sufficiently in the 1%, and even reasonable to live a passive income life-style of that amount.  That only gives you a $34,840 income per year (assuming a 4% withdrawal rate).  It seems that a minimum of twice that amount would b prudent if you are living some kind of lifestyle that involves western expenses, too.. not just 3rd world living (which $871k might be a manageable passive income amount in those places).

What if you currently have something close to $871k in assets in BTC (which would be 243BTCx$3,575)?  Then you are already in the 1% and your future prospects within bitcoin should be even better, but I would still think that you either need a minimum of a 2x appreciation in BTC prices or to double your stash to 486BTC.

On the other hand, if you have multiples of 10 less than that 243 BTC amount, then there is a requirement of  three 10x price improvements for you to get to the 1%-ers?  And, maybe even 20x price increases to get to the level of comfort that I consider to be a reasonably comfortable target.

But yeah, let's use a 10x variation of your numbers, which would be 226 BTC or 22.6 BTC or 2.26 BTC or your number of .226BTC (which is 100x more BTC than the average BTC max that anyone might have in a projected full BTC world)....

I understand that you are appealing to the smaller goal number on the multiples of 10 scenarios to both show that a reasonable hedge goal is manageable by very low income individuals right at this time versus my suggestion of higher numbers and various 10 equity hedge cushions.... because how long is it going to take to become a 1% under your projected scenario of .226 BTC?  30 years? 

I know that the scenario could happen of becoming a 1%-er with .226 BTC is possible earlier than 30 years, but you are suggesting more than a 1,000x BTC price increases in order to become a 1%-er, which would be more than $3million dollars per bitcoin.

Guys and gal here following this thread should surely be able to shoot higher than .226BTC.. and a minimum of 2.26 BTC and a 10x higher goal of 22.6 BTC should be achievable for guys and gal, here...    Now I am starting to think that longer term HODLers in this thread, who are thinking of retiring in the $50k BTC to $100kBTC territory likely have a BTC stash that is in the area of 40BTC to 50BTC arena...

No need to dox yourself anyone, but that's my thinking for the projected retirees at $50k plus per BTC arena.. and $50k is going to give a bit of a cushion.. so at 40BTC, then you have $2million and 50BTC you have $2.5million in BTC assets. 

I also know that no matter what I say, there are a lot of guys (and gal) here who are pricing their wealth in dollars, and they do not want to cash out 4% per year once they get to their BTC accumulation goal (and price target), they want to cash out a vast majority of their BTC at $50k, for example, because they want to lock in their dollar projections for how much they believe it takes for them to guarantee living passively off of the amount (given BTC's ongoing expected volatility)... .and we are not going straight to $3million per BTC any time soon...and who wants to wait 30 years to retire?

Aren't patent trolls "losers," even if they make money? 

By the way, didn't you get the memo, jbreher, that there is a certain level of justified hostility against the use of patents in the open source community underlying the "real" bitcoin.. (just to be clear, the real bitcoin is just called bitcoin, it does not have any other name appended to it nor does it need such appendage of another word).

Whoaza, scary.

I agree with you that the nocoiners who know about bitcoin will frequently erroneously conclude that they already missed the boat.  I would also suggest that the category of nocoiner is much broader than those who are kind of aware of bitcoin.  In other words, no coiners are likely normal people, and only a few of them are nutjob advocates against bitcoin.




I agree that those peeps happen to be vocal anti-bitcoin, but they hardly represent the world population nor the world of nocoiners more broadly who likely have little to no clue about what the fuck bitcoin is, even if they may have heard the word, "bitcoin."



don't let the vocal nutjobs deceive you to believe that they represent the world of nocoiners.. who are mostly a lot less vocal than the dying breed of PM bugs.


I would say 5% on the high side.. You are giving way too much benefit of the doubt to gold.. perhaps 1% would be more prudent, especially like I already mentioned if you own BTC.


I think we agree on this point... and that is part of my reason to suggest 5% might be on the high side and even a bit overkill in terms of how much value to keep in that asset.


Agree again.


Yes, there is a bit of a small chance for pms to have value in apocalypse scenarios that have less than a 1% chance of happening... which their less than 1% chance of happening sort of justifies that you hold less than 1% of your value in preparation for such unlikely scenario...

Thanks for thinking of me on this "most special" day..

Shucks.

Hhahahahahaha

Let's see.  There is less than 1% world wide BTC adoption.  Maybe 10% of the nocoiners are purposefully not taking a stake into bitcoin because they are either afraid or they believe it will not succeed?  I would suggest that 90% of the nocoiners do not know about bitcoin or they are superficially informed about it (which is the same as not knowing).

True dat... Bitcoin does not care how long it takes the various nocoiners to either become sufficiently informed about bitcoin or to take some kind of investment action into it, but the next 8 to 10 years are going to be interesting to see whether bitcoin gets to a point of approximately 5% of world adoption or more, for example... which could cause a bit of cascading of conversion into bitcoin thereafter.. perhaps?  perhaps?  Whether such levels of increased adoption happens or not, bitcoin does not care.         

I noticed that they list authorized resellers, and even though the list is decently long, such list of authorized resellers does limit the suggested locations in order to feel a decent level of confidence in the security of the product that you get.

A surprising thing about security, an attacker could wait several years before executing the attack.... 

I hate the fact that some products might be more expensive when they have to go through official channels, but in the cas of storing bitcoin value, it could be well worth the extra 20%... so instead of paying $100 in a more open market, you may have to pay $120 in order to go through a recommended dealer.. something like that. 

I actually had an incident with one of my phones that I bought used, and later, I was thinking that it just might not be worth it to get my phone through an unauthorized channel, even though I may have to pay double.  Kind of sucks, but security is important in a world that hackers have such a considerably great incentive to get into your stuff and make irreversible transactions (costs of being your own bank are not low).

Looks like you don't even understand the concept of appeal to authority - because I have not done so in the reference posts or any other posts.  All I had been suggesting in my earlier post was that satoshi already accounted for shitcoin copy cats.. so we neither have a surprise here nor a lack of a btc schelling point that you were lamely attempting to argue.



I am not saying anything like that about PMs, you fucking diptwat.  First this thread is about bitcoin, so PMs are only secondarily relevant, if at all, when you are attempting to make a connection. Second, you have been trying to irrelevantly make such PM pump, so you are the one who has the burden to show that PMs are going to be a good hedge in the future. I don't have any such burden to show PMs are bad, and I am not attempting to make such an argument with any kind of conviction - even though I have asserted that it is likely that there is no reason to hold them as a hedge against the dollar and various dollar shenanigans when bitcoin largely seems to supplanted such necessity.  I personally hold zero PMs, but I could see reasonably that some folks, even BTC holders might want to hold 1% to 5% of their holdings in PMs - but like I said, BTC already serves such dollar hedging purpose, so seems a bit like a BIG ASS waste of effort to be trying to secure, store and lug around such PM assets when BTC is superior in several ways.. especially in terms of its portability, sever-ability, cost of storage/secure transfer and verification of authenticity.



That is some real gobbledy-gook that you spouted out there, and does not even seem worthy of a response except to reiterate that your lame attempt at putting forth a religious narrative theme is quite in left field.... and you might want to reign in your phony baloney a little bit, otherwise your handlers might not want to pay you for your ongoing troll/shill efforts.

Your ongoing attempts to look at short term dynamics remains quite lame.

Shitcoins were already anticipated by satoshi, especially in terms of their attempt to imitate, copy and take over, and even if satoshi did not spell out every possible way that shitcoins would be employed as attack vectors upon bitcoin, their existence tend to show the value of bitcoin with the vigor in their ongoing attempts (seeming unsuccessful) to improve upon it and replace it, so don't get shitcoins mixed up with bitcoin with your pitiful-ass attempt to use their ongoing existence (and lack of immediate death) as if there were a lack of a schelling point in bitcoin - which is surely not proven by your weak assertion... as you should likely realize, it could take 50 years for these value propositions to play out (and perhaps your PMs such as gold and silver will be valued in the less than 5% of bitcoin arena by the time we reach such increased clarity to the masses about bitcoin's value as the true and most sound of sound money, perhaps?).  

It does not matter whether you are lying or telling the truth.

First of all, you are off topic.

Second of all, you are the one who has the burden to persuade with both facts and logic regarding the truthfulness or accuracy of your position, and like I said several times previously, no one gives a ratt's ass about whether you are actually correct because - go back to 1 - you are off topic.

If you believe in bitcoin long term, then you don't really have to rush to withdraw, but of course, no one should be planning on living forever.

Traditional investment strategies presume an ability to withdraw 4% per year without depleting principle value (that can also be considered as 1% per quarter) - so the underlying assumption is that the value of the holdings, on average, are going to gain in value at least 4% per year average to make up for the withdrawal amount.    Therefore, in theory, so long as the underlying value of the asset continues to appreciate at least 4% per year, then you can continue your withdrawal plan infinitely at those 1% per quarter levels without depleting the principle.

Therefore, in theory, you are always withdrawing appreciation of the asset rather than the principle.  I find no reason that the same practices could not be attempted to be applied to bitcoin holdings because I believe that bitcoin has a decent chance of averaging at least 4% per year in value appreciation.  So, therefore, you should be able to apply the same withdrawal of value concepts, once you get to your withdrawal stage of your life. 

Of course, if you believe that you are not going to live very long (or you have a time target that you would like to deplete your BTC holdings that is sooner than infinite), then you can plan to withdraw more than 4% per year in order to draw down on the principle as well as the appreciation.

In essence, the more bitcoins that you have accumulated, the larger the amount you will be withdrawing.  Let's say, for hypothetical purposes by 2020, you project that you will have a balance of 50 BTC, and you want to begin your withdraw of 1% per quarter at that time for the next 10 years. 

Your withdrawal projection would look something like the below table:

Year           Quarter                    Balance             Withdrawal amount
2021              1                                50                   0.5
                      2                              49.5                 0.495
                      3                                 49.005   0.49005
                      4                                 48.51495   0.4851495
2022                 1                                   48.0298005   0.480298005
                      2                                 47.5495025   0.475495025
                      3                                 47.07400747   0.470740075
                      4                                 46.6032674   0.466032674
2023                 1                                   46.13723472   0.461372347
                      2                                 45.67586237   0.456758624
                      3                                 45.21910375   0.452191038
                      4                                 44.76691271   0.447669127
2024                 1                                   44.31924359   0.443192436
                      2                                 43.87605115   0.438760511
                      3                                 43.43729064   0.434372906
                      4                                 43.00291773   0.430029177
2025                 1                                   42.57288855   0.425728886
                      2                                 42.14715967   0.421471597
                      3                                 41.72568807   0.417256881
                      4                                 41.30843119   0.413084312
2026                 1                                   40.89534688   0.408953469
                      2                                 40.48639341   0.404863934
                      3                                 40.08152948   0.400815295
                      4                                 39.68071418   0.396807142
2027                 1                                   39.28390704   0.39283907
                      2                                 38.89106797   0.38891068
                      3                                 38.50215729   0.385021573
                      4                                 38.11713572   0.381171357
2028                 1                                   37.73596436   0.377359644
                      2                                 37.35860472   0.373586047
                      3                                 36.98501867   0.369850187
                      4                                 36.61516848   0.366151685
2029                 1                                   36.2490168   0.362490168
                      2                                 35.88652663   0.358865266
                      3                                 35.52766136   0.355276614
                      4                                 35.17238475   0.351723847
2030                 1                                   34.8206609   0.348206609
                      2                                 34.47245429   0.344724543
                      3                                 34.12772975   0.341277298
                      4                                 33.78645245   0.337864525

After 10 years of withdrawals of BTC at 1% per quarter, you still would have a balance of 33.78645245 BTC.  Nothing wrong with that, and the same formula to withdraw 1% per quarter will work, no matter what your starting amount.

Like I said.. neither I nor bitcoin gives a shit about your macro theory value flow projections.  Why don't you go take them to another thread?  You trying to save us from bitcoin, and no one here cares.


Ditto from above. so fucking what.  Good luck with your projections about how all of these matters are all going to play out in the coming years.  I see no need to hedge with gold or silver, but you do seem to see a need, so good like fining $20k per once on your gold in the coming years.... but much more likely that bitcoin is going to well surpass those price levels in the coming years.

You seem to be reading too much into my statement if you conclude that I am presuming BTC to become the new world reserve currency.

By the way, I am talking about bitcoin in this thread because bitcoin happens to be the topic of this thread.  Didn't you get the memo?



Do you really think that bitcoin, or even I when it comes to me thoughts about bitcoin, give(s) a ratt's ass about Trump? and what he says or does not say?




Who gives a ratt's ass about what you say?  More than half the time, you are framing any kind of bitcoin related topics into irrelevant nonsense distractions, which seems to be the case with your attempt to describe gold/silver as a superior store of value than bitcoin (under your hypothetical pie in the sky nonsensical assumptions). 

None of us needs to read your ongoing bullshit or to buy into your various frameworks about hypotheticals that are likely irrelevant, because bitcoin nor I give a shit about what you have to say.  Good luck with your gold and silver investments, and kindly take that discussion to some other thread or forum.  This thread is about bitcoin and discussion about how bitcoin's price dynamics are likely affected by a variety of factors including market movements, technicals, fundamentals, news and a variety of other topics, and most of us are completely exhausted by your attempts to make PMs relevant to such discussion when they are likely less than 1% relevant.

Fair enough.

Seems like a gamblers mentality to me to be thinking that a BTC HODLer has to sell large increments of the BTC stash in order to profit from a BTC price run up, and sure I have no damned idea where this particular BTC price correction is going to stop (how low will we go), but when I sold incrementally all the way up to $20k, I had so much damned fiat that I did not know what to do with it.  And, I was only selling small amounts.  About 1% of my stash for every 10% the price went up (approximately).

   However, now after the BTC price came back down, a lot of that fiat that I had generated on the way up had gone towards repurchases of bitcoin.. ... problem solved about knowing what to do with all the extra money.... but even so, I did not have to buy back BTC with those funds, and I would have been fine with that, too. 

The main reasons that I bought back BTC back all the way down is that I already have a decent fiat cashflow, so the repurchase of BTC with sales proceeds from all that fiat that had been generated  had seemed as a decently logical application. 

Of course, in hindsight, anyone could argue that I should have waited to buy BTC back at $3,500 rather than buying at $15k and $12k and $9k and $7k and $5k..... and the various increments in between... but I kind of see the whole buying back of BTC on the way down situation as a BIG FUCKING SO WHAT?  It is part of a system that I already created for myself.. and there was no clear picture that the BTC price was going to continue to go down or to come down to the current price with decent odds of going lower, and that money that had been generated was partly intended for buying back of BTC.

So, if the BTC price goes up to $20k or $100k or whatever, I don't see what kind of problem that there is that BTC is not generating a separate cash flow, because anyone who is holding BTC can shave off any amount of BTC all the way up to those various price points at any amount s/he has and at any price point that s/he wants.  Not a bad problem to have been HODLing BTC if the price happens to go up, and the potential sales price is larger than the already known purchase price.

I don't see how that is a problem.  You can easily sell a little bit.  You don't have to sell the whole stash.  You sell enough to cover your expenses for the next few years... or you sell a little bit at various stages on the way up...  Where is the problem, exactly?

Have you capitulated, Biodom?  Finding a shared realization space with bitserve?

Alt coin pumpers and bitcoin bashers like to suggest that their project is better because it has a "cash flow"

When in fact you don't need a cashflow if you are holding the most sound of monies that has ever existed and also you have scarcity that is pretty damned solid - even if it takes more than 120 years from now for all of it to come available.


Again.  Why?  Don't get sucked into some shitcoin that supposedly provides cashflow and then to find out that it has almost NO actual decent monetary restriction policy (limitation of its supply).


Why you gonna do that unless you invested every single thing into bitcoin.  Should be easy enough to sell fiat first, no? It's called gresham's law.. you spend the least valuable first, and sure if all that you have left is bitcoin, then you are going to have to sell a bit of bitcoin... if you are not otherwise able to eat or shelter yourself, for example.


Agreed.. especially if we are in a bear market, currently, while being unsure about whether the BTC price is going to reverse from here.  Likely there is a need to plan ahead about these kinds of matters in order to not run out of money that you can spend to cover your expenses, including having an emergency fund.


Not me.  I would really not want to put myself in such a place in order to have to be forced to gamble like that... unless it is merely a really small portion of my total BTC value.. perhaps much lower than 1%.  On the other hand if my BTC portfolio is in profits, it might be better to shave off a little bit.  If my BTC portfolio is negative, then it is better to be looking for resources in other areas rather than locking in losses by selling my BTC or loaning it out with a risk.


There are  all kinds of services that are likely to develop in regards to BTC such as ones that you are describing.  There are likely some that already exist.

Lexuses do tend to hold their value pretty well, and certainly have decent luxury bells and whistles, too.

I think that is the best approach while you are building up your various investment portfolios, and certainly the most depreciation happens in those first 3 years.  As we know, too, some brands of cars tend to hold their value better than others, too, and holding value could be a factor. 

As I suggested in my post, I do believe, too that, there likely comes a point where you feel that you have accumulated a lot of investments, and it makes decent amount of sense NOT to splurge a bit on yourself a bit more.  My splurging on myself is less than 10 years old, and I am still pretty moderate in terms of my splurging. 

Of course, if you are born with a silver spoon in your mouth then you may already be used to splurging, but that certainly was not the case with me, and seems to NOT have been the case with you, either, infofront.

So, when I got into bitcoin, I was a bit already into a bit more of my splurging phase of life because I had already built a decent amount of wealth and higher standards of living than I had previously done with my earlier more frugal stages; however, when I got into bitcoin, I had a bit more than a year in which I was accumulating and reallocating some of my traditional investments into bitcoin, which I supposed caused a decent amount of return to frugality during that more than year long accumulation phase.

I also believe that the loss of value in my BTC holdings during that first year of my investment into BTC (during 2014) and largely lasting for three years from the end of 2013 to the end of 2016, caused me a decent amount of restraint in my consumer spending.. Though in mid 2016, I did feel a decent amount of relief - at least my BTC holdings were beginning to float around in the retaining their value territory (rather than negative equity territory.. hahahahahaha).

Probably, with any of us, if we are attempting to monitor our own situation and to customize our investment approach to our own financial circumstances and timeline, we are going to figure out ways to balance and to realize whether we are primarily in an accumulation phase, a maintenance phase or a consumption phase and those phases are not necessarily mutually exclusive in terms of the overlap and the fact that we can practice all three at the same time, while prioritizing within them based on our personal circumstances.