Define "right time"?  You know it when you see it?  Is that what you mean?   

Fuck McAfee.  You cannot base your view of the world on such a nutjob, and he has more than 90% chance of losing that bet.. which is either going to show him as 1) the hypocrite that he is, 2) a dumbass for making such a high personal cost bet, 3) or a crazy person if he actual follows through with such a unnecessary drama queen move.. and yeah, he would literally become a queen at that point, if he is that stupid to actually carry it out.

O.k.  I will give $40k by the end of 2019 a 2% chance, at best.  It is more likely in the below 1% arena.  I am not going to say that it will not happen or that it could not happen, but I don't plan my life around events that are less than 1%, because that inevitably leads to disappointment, to have expectations in fantasy land of less than 1% probable.

Regarding early 2017.  As a comparison, we are not even close to being there yet.  We are somewhere in 2014 or 2015 and we do not really know where we are at yet until 1) we know that the bottom is in and 2) we are on our way up. 

I agree that based on the amount of FUD being spread in early 2017, there was a considerable degree of uncertainty, but I would hardly characterize today's level of certainty to be better than early 2017.  Get real.  Yes, there has been way more development in BTC today (such as lightning network and adoption of segwit), we have pretty much demolished some of the bitcoin naysayers and attack vectors and financialization tools/liquidation mechanisms are way better; however, price momentum still is NOT on BTC's side.  In early 2017, there had already been a year of slow grinding upward price movement, so in early 2017, the primary question was whether the top was in or if the price would continue to move up.. yes, lot's of doubt in early 2017.. but a history of 1 year of moving up, too... from $250-ish to the $900 to $1,200 arena of early 2017.

Admittedly, I am disinclined to lock myself into any fractal view of what is going to happen in bitcoin, because I remain open to any possibility, but saying that we are in early 2017 seems like pie in the sky when our current price is currently still within 20% of the most recent bottom of this cycle, $3,122.

Yes.  The BTC price has already suddenly changed, and it is currently down a bit more than 80% from its December 2017 peak, which means that it is a good time for buying BTC.

Of course, any prudent BTC buying strategy would include preparations to buy more, just in case the price goes down more.

In other words, you don't want to be sitting around fearing for sudden BTC "changes" down, when there has already been a sudden change of more than 81% down.

Reference to other cryptos is another story, they do not have the same fundamentals as bitcoin, so they should not be treated the same, and that is why the question of this thread is about whether institutions are secretly buying HODLing BTC... surely some of them are secretly buying and HODLing BTC, but the vast majority of them are likely very similarly skittish as the population as a whole with low rates of investment into BTC out of fear of the unknown and an unwillingness to educate themselves about it. Therefore, the more educated (smarter) money players are going to be buying and accumulating at these prices, and why should they tell anyone, unless they have to?

hahahahaha.. you caught me there.  i was speculating.   Yours sounds very probable too, and I like the variant of that theme in which grandma refuses to bring him cookies and milk, too.   

Good for me, also, because the topic of this thread is bitcoin, and lightning happens to be a part of bitcoin (or at least has a lot of connections with bitcoin), so don't try to get too far on a tangent with your high and mighty attempts at abstraction.



Yes, folks probably jump down your throat based on your inclinations towards mischaracterizing matters and giving the wrong kinds of weight to various topics that ends up seeming like you might be on topic, but largely inclined towards misleading, either because you are pumping some kind of alt coin narrative or engaged in undue and unwarranted criticisms of bitcoin.

Certainly, I have known you long enough to appreciate that you are likely smarter than that, so the sum of the matter is that you are likely contributing in disingenuous ways.

Roach is generally NOT a fan of any of the cryptos.  

He is a pumper of PMs such as gold and silver, and set's forth a lot of the similar arguments that anti-government folks suggest in order to suggest that there is a need to invest in case the Armageddon comes.  He is also stupid-ass racist, in the nazi direction.  

Yet, who really knows or cares exactly what the fuck that he is talking about because his topics are largely tangential to the topic of this thread (but still seemingly tolerated), except perhaps one might conclude that his anti-government statements might line up with sound money aspects of bitcoin, if he were not likely paid to spout out his baloney bullshit distractions (but, for some reason, has not been around this thread too much in the past week or more.. i think he posts in streaks (maybe either related to how he is paid or when he has leave from the asylum))...   

I am referring to bitcoin as a package, and lightning is one optional and supplemental component of such bitcoin package.  Don't get LN mixed up with the real bitcoin, jbreher, as I know you like to convolute your facts/arguments in order to make nonsensical points in order to pump other shit (as if there were some other shit out there, that matters, besides bitcoin).  In other words, you might want to join sirsplashalot in the fucking off portion that I mentioned in my earlier post (the part that you conveniently edited out).... 

I'm sure that Venezuelan citizens are going to be breaking down doors to use that service.

No you can't.

There is only one bitcoin, and when push comes to shove (for example if they were under government attack or traditional banking attack), all 3,000 of those supposed coins that you cannot even list would not have liquidity or network (node) effects to accomplish such with impunity like bitcoin can.

So, fuck off with your vague assertion that there is some other coin that competes with bitcoin, because amongst other things, lightning network is an alt coin killer.   

They are breaking up, right? 

So they want to break up and stay friends?

I thought that the break up was a bit more hostile.. I suppose it is still in development and all the details are not really known, either.

Fair enough... We are repeating each other, so all I have left to say to you on this topic is this:



And this:

Since BTC prices have largely been bouncing around in the $3,400 to $4,200 price arena for 3.5 months-ish, I don't see how we could experience any kind of sub-$3k crash that would NOT invigorate bears and scare other fence sitters to prolong downward price testing for at least another 3 months.  I doubt we go below $3k without getting further stuck here, even if such further downward movement (below $2,800) ends up getting repelled.

I agree that dropping to either $2k or $1k would not be the end of the world (nor the end of bitcoin); however, each BTC price drop lower below our current bottom of $3,122 is likely going to drag this winter matter out longer, rather than resolving the situation in terms of UP.

Based on underlying fundamentals the weak hands that you mentioned are most likely in various alt coins rather than in bitcoin, but shaking those weak hands, if it happens, is going to draw down bitcoin, too...

What are your requirements for bull?

Yes, there are a lot of bulls who are hoping for UP.  At the same time you gotta deal with reality, and reality continues to suggest that there are a lot of resistance points on the way up, that is if the price goes up.

With the passage of time, it is likely going to be harder and harder for bearwhales to keep the BTC price down, especially when the halvening actually goes into effect and the new supply of bitcoin begins to be felt soon thereafter.

In the meantime, the reality of the matter is that we are currently in a bear market, so you can deny all that you like or even suggest that we are either in a reversal or the bottom is in, but how the fuck you gonna make those kinds of claims with any kind of conviction when the price remains within fairly easy striking distance of the current low for this cycle (which is $3,122)?   

Furthermore, if the BTC price comes close to the current low, or even breaches the mid-December low of $3,122, then bearwhales would be invigorated by that kind of price move.  You cannot write off such a move, unless you happen to have a billionaire friend who can help you to buy all of the bitcoins, and I am not even sure if a billion would be enough to rest 100% assured, even though it would certainly help to have that much fiat that you would like to use for BTC pumping purposes.

Sideways is a good thing.. especially if you are in bitcoin for the long term. 

I know that none of us can really control or know BTC's price direction with our preferences (especially short term), but I consider sideways to be a better outcome than down... especially any kind of down that creates a new low. 

As soon as we get a new low (if a new low occurs), then such new low causes a dynamics in which bears get more emboldened and attempt to push the price lower than it should go, HODLers get scared, semi-weak hands turn into weaker hands by selling more than they should, and perhaps some fence sitters become more skittish about buying and fail/refuse to buy.

In other words, I stand by my earlier statement to chastise anyone wishing for more down from here, especially if you proclaim to be a believer in BTC.

Number 3 is taking the matter too far.  We already crashed, remember?

Of course, if the price crashes some more, each of us are going to have to "deal with it", but I see no need to wish for a crash.  Sounds like the wish of a bearwhale, a shill or a nocoiner.  I would prefer that the BTC price either goes sideways or fails to go down, so that those diptwats get locked out and have to buy higher.

I was attempting to distinguish between men and women to suggest that men are more promiscuous than women by nature...  and perhaps our social systems may be reinforcing that (or allowing for that to some degree, at least in most cultures), but the article does not really focus on men (male) and women (female) differences, it just says most monogamy, overall, seems to be more of an exception rather than a rule amongst various species of animals.

His ideas in that tweet (and some of the tweets in the responsive tweets) appear to be all garbled up.

Of course, he is talking about times of reversals while also referring to the "trend is your friend," so in early 2018, we likely had no idea about whether that point in BTC's price was a reversal or not, because sticking with the "trend is your friend" would have meant more UP from there.. and in my view that issue about the trend is your friend and whether the trend had reversed was NOT really resolved until mid-November 2018 (and at that point in mid-November, there was a bit of a decisiveness about the matter regarding what the current trend was (and still seems to be)).... Call me conservative.

Currently, if we happen to be a reversal, we may not know for several months.  I don't think that we can call it, until such new trend (of UP) is well upon its way, and for me, my number for trend reversal still is in the supra $6k territory.

I just don't trust calling these kinds of matters too early, and I am not going to bet on them either.  That is part of the reason why I did not make any major sales of BTC between $10k and $19,666 on the way up, and certainly, I was not selling on the way down, either.  I was buying starting from about $19k all the way down to $3,122.  

Yes, yes... I hope we are in a reversal.. but the trend is your friend still says that the odds are against it, until we reach $6k-ish.. at least in my rough assessment of what is a sufficient of enough barrier between the current low (which is now $3,122) and a necessary BTC price to feel some degree of comfort that a retest of the bottom support becomes less than 50% rather than our current greater than 50% status.

I think, by nature, difficult for guys.  Guys have to be trained into a kind of monogamy, and they are generally not very good at it, especially if they are put into situations where they have options.

By the way, whether we are talking about bitcoin or not.  A guy is frequently seen as attractive if he can provide for a woman, and bitcoin price appreciation can even cause less attractive guys to be ablt to present themselves as attractive because they can provide for a woman (and perhaps many woman), so my point is that sometimes a guy might have a dimepiece of a spouse (or partner), but still tempted by variety, if it appears to him that he has those kinds of options.