As many of us predicted months ago, we seem to be in the lead-up to the halving where ask depth is drying up -- people are thinking "why not wait and see what happens?"
So what will happen?
Frankly, a lot of the volume on Gox seems to be due to short-term speculative action. This is just the "fog of war"... but it cannot hide the fact that a much lower volume of long-term activity must be sequestering the 9600 BTC produced each day which is keeping the price stable above 10. This long term activity is expected given the positive press and growing legitimacy of the currency. So I believe that the blockchain halving is going to place a small but significant upwards pressure on the price, since there is clearly demand for 9600 a day but only half that many coins produced.
But its very possible that the lack of a pre-halving "breakout" will cause short-term speculators to dump some coins near the halving mark. However, many of these speculators are going to be the sort that keeps fiat on gox for reinvestment. So a dump near the halving is just $ that will be poured back into the next breakout.
TL;DR; the bull breakout after the halving will be a big one...