[poll] Price

[adamstgBit]

 

[thezerg]

As many of us predicted  months ago, we seem to be in the lead-up to the halving where ask depth is drying up -- people are thinking "why not wait and see what happens?"   

So what will happen? 

Frankly, a lot of the volume on Gox seems to be due to short-term speculative action.  This is just the "fog of war"... but it cannot hide the fact that a much lower volume of long-term activity must be sequestering the 9600 BTC produced each day which is keeping the price stable above 10.  This long term activity is expected given the positive press and growing legitimacy of the currency.  So I believe that the blockchain halving is going to place a small but significant upwards pressure on the price, since there is clearly demand for 9600 a day but only half that many coins produced.

But its very possible that the lack of a pre-halving "breakout" will cause short-term speculators to dump some coins near the halving mark.  However, many of these speculators are going to be the sort that keeps fiat on gox for reinvestment.  So a dump near the halving is just $ that will be poured back into the next breakout. 

TL;DR; the bull breakout after the halving will be a big one...

[adamstgBit]

As many of us predicted  months ago, we seem to be in the lead-up to the halving where ask depth is drying up -- people are thinking "why not wait and see what happens?"   

So what will happen? 

Frankly, a lot of the volume on Gox seems to be due to short-term speculative action.  This is just the "fog of war"... but it cannot hide the fact that a much lower volume of long-term activity must be sequestering the 9600 BTC produced each day which is keeping the price stable above 10.  This long term activity is expected given the positive press and growing legitimacy of the currency.  So I believe that the blockchain halving is going to place a small but significant upwards pressure on the price, since there is clearly demand for 9600 a day but only half that many coins produced.

But its very possible that the lack of a pre-halving "breakout" will cause short-term speculators to dump some coins near the halving mark.  However, many of these speculators are going to be the sort that keeps fiat on gox for reinvestment.  So a dump near the halving is just $ that will be poured back into the next breakout. 

TL;DR; the bull breakout after the halving will be a big one...

+1

Up! 

[kentrolla]

i think halving day will be stable

[Kupsi]

$20 before new year 

[byronbb]

I think only 7200 are minted a day. 144*50.

If it is true that Silk Road does 2 million a month (a theory with many holes) that is 66kusd a day. After block halving only 3600 which at current price levels is about 40kusd a day. Obviously dealers will sell to make USD but it seems like net buying > net selling for the near short term since they are working on nice margins they probably will sell just enough to buy more product. And this is just the SR.

[Kupsi]

i think halving day will be stable

But will December be stable?

[thezerg]

Yeah you're right about the numbers (6 per hour * 24 hours * 50btc)... I'm recovering from surgery and so typing and thinking :-) is hard.  Its interesting that SR might occupy that much currency per day.  But the currency can be reused so something else is going on to actually consume it.  That something else is likely primarily long term investment (hoarding), but it really does not matter what it is; whatever it is, it has been a steady demand for 6 months or more and there is no socio-economic reason why that will change any time soon (other then grow) since the global economic situation remains on its current trajectory.

 

I think only 7200 are minted a day. 144*50.

If it is true that Silk Road does 2 million a month (a theory with many holes) that is 66kusd a day. After block halving only 3600 which at current price levels is about 40kusd a day. Obviously dealers will sell to make USD but it seems like net buying > net selling for the near short term since they are working on nice margins they probably will sell just enough to buy more product. And this is just the SR.

[kentrolla]

i think halving day will be stable

But will December be stable?

no. I think halving day will be stable when you compare it to the 30 days before/after it.

[Yuhfhrh]

We are going to the moon guys. The poll results are amazing.

[beckspace]

Unless is one of those possible futures where...



Poll's results have always been a contrarian indicator.

[myself]

there is major difference between sentiment and action few ppl seams to get that

[Yuhfhrh]

there is major difference between sentiment and action few ppl seams to get that

The better question to ask would be at what price will you sell your bitcoins lol

[nobbynobbynoob]

there is major difference between sentiment and action few ppl seams to get that

The better question to ask would be at what price will you sell your bitcoins lol

Any level iff I'm confident enough I'll be able to buy back in at a lower price sooner rather than later.

Otherwise, we're talking minimum triple figures per BTC in bankster-paper terms, I'd say.

[myself]

there is major difference between sentiment and action few ppl seams to get that

The better question to ask would be at what price will you sell your bitcoins lol

is almost the same point

one can be extremely bullish (to the moon) but the only thing one can do is sell so your sentiment is bullish but the action is bearish, the sell is based on fear and buy is based on greed and since fear of lose is a emotion 5 times stronger that greed bulls will take their profits and the sell will pushes the price slowly down, now if there is any risk event then the panic happen since ppl dont have a plan to enter exit a trade you get selloffs  and the notion of risk reward ratio is not existent for most ppl and this will fuel the selloff

[johnyj]

Daily coin generation has almost nothing to do with price, since most of the miners just hoard the coins. It is the rising popularity give the support for price

And if those people who usually mine the coin were not able to get enough coin after reward halving, they will buy coin instead of mine, this will also push the price up

[Thralen]

And if those people who usually mine the coin were not able to get enough coin after reward halving, they will buy coin instead of mine, this will also push the price up

What he said there.

To elaborate: If demand for BTC available for purchase remains the same but the supply available for sale drops by half (potentially more if any miners drop out due to the halving) then what happens to the price? Yes some people will stop purchasing as the price rises, at least for a little while, but others will not.

In my opinion the supply will drop enough that those selling will be able to ask for a greater price (and receive it). There are other factors but this goes back to the basic idea of supply and demand. If supply drops and demand remains, then the price will rise.

Thralen

[Qoheleth]

What interesting times these are.

[jwzguy]

there is major difference between sentiment and action few ppl seams to get that

The better question to ask would be at what price will you sell your bitcoins lol

I've never understood why people would phrase any question like that, unless it's that they see Bitcoin as a get-rich-quick scheme and have no long term confidence.

Otherwise, you NEVER sell your BTC "at a certain future price." You hold onto them until you need to spend them. Why would there be a certain price you sold everything out at and moved to an inferior holding?

There's no "price" that would make me sell. Only a superior (proven) system to invest in.

[Yuhfhrh]

there is major difference between sentiment and action few ppl seams to get that

The better question to ask would be at what price will you sell your bitcoins lol

I've never understood why people would phrase any question like that, unless it's that they see Bitcoin as a get-rich-quick scheme and have no long term confidence.

Otherwise, you NEVER sell your BTC "at a certain future price." You hold onto them until you need to spend them. Why would there be a certain price you sold everything out at and moved to an inferior holding?

There's no "price" that would make me sell. Only a superior (proven) system to invest in.

If at any point I feel bitcoins are overpriced, I would sell them. And then buy them back later. ... Like if we hit $100 today, I would sell them knowing I could probably buy them back at around $50 within a few days...