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People ask me that -- I don't think it's a fair question. I mean, is Bitcoin some kind of god?
As the saying goes, "In God we trust -- all others pay cash."
Seriously, I have faith in God, but Bitcoin has a lot to prove yet. It isn't accepted by many merchants, even those on the Bitcoin.org list of merchants that supposedly accept BTC.
Meanwhile, the currency loses $1 of value every week or two.
What kind of "faith" am I supposed to have?
Sure, I believe BTC has strong fundamentals. It's counterfeit proof, etc. and has a LOT of potential, especially for international commerce.
But are people smart enough to adopt it? I can't say I have faith in that.
People (as a group) can be very, very shortsighted and very, very stupid.
Just look at what movies are "popular" and which ones are relegated to the fringe -- I rest my case.
Matthew
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w/ the electricity costs now is not profitable for me to continue mining if 1 btc goes under 7$ (or the exchange €/$ get lower)
if that does happen enjoy the diff drop ppl
If the price keeps dropping, I'm sure you'll have company. |
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I don't know what's dictating BTC price right now, but whatever's calling the shots is calling that BTC go down, down, down... Currently in the $7's Getting a bit frustrating, to be honest. I'm just having a hard time seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. I'm just glad my costs are relatively low, and that I didn't just go out and spend several $K on mining hardware  If I make a little profit and just about break even before BTC hits $4, then great. I do wonder if the pace of decline will slow if it gets any lower. Aren't there enough speculators out there to buoy up the price? Isn't the supply of BTC to-be-sold going down at all? |
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I just noticed today that BTC took another 5% dump. It's true that BTC "could" go to da moon, and "could" go to 10 cents. But which is more likely -- or, is a third option more likely? The charts HAVE to give us some indication. Does anyone remember what BTC were selling for right after the Mt Gox hack? $16! The it dropped a dollar or two every week or so. Recently, it dipped to 7 before recovering to around $12.50 (briefly) then was pretty stable at $11.50 for a while. Now $11 seems like a distant dream! Even $8.50 is out of reach at the moment. So I must say that an explosion in value would require a "black swan" (out of left field) event, whereas the status quo is lower and lower every couple weeks -- who knows how low it will go before stopping and/or reversing. It SHOULD stop when miners stop selling -- but, as many people point out, BTC mining is still profitable (if you're good at it, have cheap electricity, etc.) at the crappy price of $8 per BTC. As long as there's profit to be made, the difficulty will rise and/or the price will drop, until it reaches an equillibrium. Heck, I hear about guys buying 40 6990's today. Even with BTC at $8.10 each. Difficulty is going to rise -- unless a bunch of people jump ship at the same time of course. It's not too bold of a prediction I'm making -- namely, that returns are going to continue to diminish. But that's why I'm leery of 9, 10 and 12-month payoff periods. Believe me, I hope somebody invents a personal fusion reactor, or generator that runs on water, that the inventor decides to ONLY sell for Bitcoin -- 12 BTC each. That would be just the shot in the arm we need  |
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you start these things... so don't try talking as if your constant and consistent theme is somehow shared... it it not.
I for one hope that difficulty increases 3-4 fold. You know why? because that would mean bitcoin would be mainstream and adopted as a payment system.
unless bitcoin is adopted and becomes mainstream, we will just hover around where we are today.
I want it to explode. I want it to be the next paypal and without more adoption and more mining it ain't gonna happen.
Stop being so shortsighted. Where's your vision of bitcoin?
So every post that is in any way negative to Bitcoin somehow has me behind it? I didn't know I was that powerful.  Especially since many "negative" threads are started and finished without one post of participation from me. I also hope that Bitcoin goes mainstream. I actually have a credit card merchant account, and believe me there are few things that are that much of a pain in the butt (maybe going to the dentist, or having a colo-rectal exam?) I kid you not; they add fees every month it seems! I can't wait until I can just accept Bitcoin and drop my merchant account. We are all allowed to discuss whatever comes to our minds on here last time I checked. I'm not going to shelve half the topics and posts I think up just because someone might get the wrong idea that I'm on a calculated campaign to discourage people. Too bad for them. I'm not a troll, my posts are perfectly in accordance with the ToS, I haven't been banned yet (and am not about to be), so there's no problem with me. If you don't like my posts, DON'T READ THEM. Truth never hurt anyone. I'm just discussing the situation as it evolves. It shouldn't be threatening to anyone who isn't doing something stupid. The last thing I called "ridiculous" on was $160 5830's on eBay. 2 weeks later, they were no longer a reality. I also called for sub-$1000 PCs back in 1996 (I even lost my computer store job to prove it -- I didn't sell enough high-end PCs, because I saw that a 133 Pentium was about the same as a 200 Pentium, even though the former was $1400 and the latter was $3000) I was also recommending people get out of the stock market and buy gold in 2007 (when it was $650 -- it's currently $1800 something) So I have been known to have decent "vision". don't take me the wrong way. I don't "disagree" with your posts in short term or if you consider what you are saying in a small or limited construct/view. Honestly, your posts give me the most chuckles for some reason. I am glad that you do see the big picture and want the same. Anyway, have fun with your posts... see you around. I look forward to your new posts and bemusing responses.  Yes, I have plenty of faults and weaknesses but one of my strengths seems to be seeing the big picture -- taking a thousand points of data and forming a coherent picture from it. I would certainly say that everything I'm saying should be taken only at face-value. I *hate* it when people read things in, and put words in my mouth. If I say that the 7000 series should be prudently considered, I mean it should be prudently considered. I'm not "between the lines" saying anything about Bitcoin, mining, the South African government, or the relationship between Bert and Ernie. I'll try to keep posting amusing posts -- sometimes I get too busy to post, but I haven't given up the forum yet. Matthew |
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Even if you're comparing your mining return to interest at a bank (which, admittedly, is quite low), it's still silly to buy cards that won't pay off for 9 or more months.
Besides the usual argument, "Bitcoin could be $3 in a few months!" which no one can really refute...
What if the 7000 series cards have a much better stream processor count? Another thread mentioned them having *double* the stream processors. That's only a rumor, of course, but what if something like that happened? Does any of us know what the 7000 will bring? Isn't it prudent to wait until the details have been released, before sinking one's savings into 6990s?
Those who *didn't* buy cards with a long payout will be in a better position, because they can buy the 7000 series cards and keep up with the difficulty increases that will no doubt ensue.
Those already "invested" in $500 5970's and 6990s will have to watch their returns diminish, and won't have as much capital (or free slots) for 7000 series cards as everyone else.
So there are many things to consider when you go "all in" at this point.
When are you gonna stop discouraging people from mining and/or increasing theu hash rates by bringing online new cards? Your posts are so predictable and very consistent! As far as I'm concerned, he may as well be a gov't hired goon to infiltrate and spread fud. And I honestly have no doubt that there are already many of these types in bitcointalk already doing just this. Easiest to take down bitcoin is to disseminate the supporters from inside with disinformation. ...because if there's anyone coherent or intelligent on bitcointalk.org they HAVE to be a government agent. I guess I can't fault your logic -- you do have something to go on -- namely, that I bring the average IQ up a few points when I'm here. But government agent? Come on, I thought *I* believed in conspiracies. You see a government agent under every bush. You, my friend, are downright paranoid. Back on the meds with you! P.S. What disinformation? I don't expect you to answer, because I know you won't. Your kind never does. But I'd like to know what disinformation I've ever spread, now or 3 months ago. Quotes, please. |
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you start these things... so don't try talking as if your constant and consistent theme is somehow shared... it it not.
I for one hope that difficulty increases 3-4 fold. You know why? because that would mean bitcoin would be mainstream and adopted as a payment system.
unless bitcoin is adopted and becomes mainstream, we will just hover around where we are today.
I want it to explode. I want it to be the next paypal and without more adoption and more mining it ain't gonna happen.
Stop being so shortsighted. Where's your vision of bitcoin?
So every post that is in any way negative to Bitcoin somehow has me behind it? I didn't know I was that powerful. Especially since many "negative" threads are started and finished without one post of participation from me. I also hope that Bitcoin goes mainstream. I actually have a credit card merchant account, and believe me there are few things that are that much of a pain in the butt (maybe going to the dentist, or having a colo-rectal exam?) I kid you not; they add fees every month it seems! I can't wait until I can just accept Bitcoin and drop my merchant account. We are all allowed to discuss whatever comes to our minds on here last time I checked. I'm not going to shelve half the topics and posts I think up just because someone might get the wrong idea that I'm on a calculated campaign to discourage people. Too bad for them. I'm not a troll, my posts are perfectly in accordance with the ToS, I haven't been banned yet (and am not about to be), so there's no problem with me. If you don't like my posts, DON'T READ THEM. Truth never hurt anyone. I'm just discussing the situation as it evolves. It shouldn't be threatening to anyone who isn't doing something stupid. The last thing I called "ridiculous" on was $160 5830's on eBay. 2 weeks later, they were no longer a reality. I also called for sub-$1000 PCs back in 1996 (I even lost my computer store job to prove it -- I didn't sell enough high-end PCs, because I saw that a 133 Pentium was about the same as a 200 Pentium, even though the former was $1400 and the latter was $3000) I was also recommending people get out of the stock market and buy gold in 2007 (when it was $650 -- it's currently $1800 something) So I have been known to have decent "vision". |
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Actually, it's my "critics" that are the selfish ones -- they drool over the used, after-market 6990s and 5970's they are going to pick up when various miners find out the truth about current Bitcoin profitability The more people sink their money into them, the more units will be sold on the aftermarket. So you can speculate about my "true motives", and I can speculate about yours. Neither of us can prove our suspicions true or false. So why go there? Isn't it a foregone conclusion that all miners on this board want difficulty to go down, and would like to discourage people? I could point to DOZENS of threads and posts that are much more discouraging than any of mine (past or present). I don't know why I'm so memorable. |
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I was asking an honest question. I was merely trying to start a discussion about 7000 series cards -- why don't YOU stop giving yourself an ulcer.
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I have 20 cards total, no more than 3 per machine. I bought everything at a good or great price.
I've been slowly building up since I started in late May of this year; I stopped expanding right before the August 6 crash; I haven't bought a card since.
I'm glad my cards have all had a chance to partially pay for themselves; but most of that payoff happened before August 6!
Maybe 10% of the money I made came in during the last month; the other 90% came during the first 2 1/3 months. The profitability of Bitcoin has gone way down. Who hasn't noticed that?
Of course those who are already set up to mine are going to keep doing so.
BTW, I am supposed to have more like 6.1 or 6.2 GH/s, but many of my cards are throttled down to almost 50% of normal hashrate, so they don't overheat. I'm in south central Texas, were it STILL gets up over 100 every single day and only goes down to 81 in the middle of the night. No free cooling for me. I have my machines in a "hotroom" of sorts -- a game room converted into non-air-conditioned space. I was sick of the excess heat warming up the rest of my house.
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Where did you sell coins for $10.50? Mt. Gox has been trading 8.71 - 8.21 in the past 24 hours.
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Besides the usual argument, "Bitcoin could be $3 in a few months!" which no one can really refute...
By the same token, no one can refute "Bitcoin could be at $30 in a few months!" since both statements rely on subjective and selective data. This is a gamble, pure and simple, and anyone who thinks they have a "foolproof system" is the one who's going to be hurting soon. Play this like any other market -- take profit when you can, don't invest more than you can afford to lose. There is a second gamble here, though: the VLIW design could change for worse or for better, like you said. Consider this: if the 7000-series changes in such a way that they emulate NVidia's approach (better actual D3D/OGL performance at the cost of lower hashing performance) then the 69xx cards you now have start to go UP in resale value, since it becomes known that there won't be anything in the near term to replace them. This is, again, a gamble, you are betting that the future will turn out one way or the other. You're right that it TECHNICALLY could go either way -- but it would take a Black Swan event to bring Bitcoin into the $20s, whereas the trend right now is $1 less every couple weeks. So betting it will go lower is not "equal" with betting it will go higher. There is more evidence for the former. Regarding the video cards -- you're right. That's why I said "wait and see" rather than go one way or the other. I'm sure there will be 6990s for sale even after the 7000 series is released (or definitively described) to the public. |
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Even if you're comparing your mining return to interest at a bank (which, admittedly, is quite low), it's still silly to buy cards that won't pay off for 9 or more months.
Besides the usual argument, "Bitcoin could be $3 in a few months!" which no one can really refute...
What if the 7000 series cards have a much better stream processor count? Another thread mentioned them having *double* the stream processors. That's only a rumor, of course, but what if something like that happened? Does any of us know what the 7000 will bring? Isn't it prudent to wait until the details have been released, before sinking one's savings into 6990s?
Those who *didn't* buy cards with a long payout will be in a better position, because they can buy the 7000 series cards and keep up with the difficulty increases that will no doubt ensue.
Those already "invested" in $500 5970's and 6990s will have to watch their returns diminish, and won't have as much capital (or free slots) for 7000 series cards as everyone else.
So there are many things to consider when you go "all in" at this point.
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I understand what you're suggesting, and it isn't totally crazy (unless you need "thousands" of customers for a graphics card manufacturing run instead of "hundreds"). All it would do is raise the difficulty Seriously, though, this would have been more feasible several months ago. Now, with BTC at $8 each and most cards making 1/8th of a BTC per day (after electricity costs), MOST people -- even miners -- aren't expanding their mining farms with both hands. |
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Is that true? The price must be pretty high, because I thought the difficulty made NC mining unprofitable relative to BTC mining.
After the 2 day bonanza, the difficulty jumped and most people jumped with it (left Namecoin mining)
Last I checked, the difficulty WANTS to reset to 0.08 of what it was, but would be limited to 0.25 by the algorithm, and based on the current network hashrate the next difficulty reset will occur on CHRISTMAS!
Sounds like Namecoin is pretty much dead. This was only a few days ago.
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What struck me about the 5970s --
You essentially have the shaders of TWO 5870's in ONE card -- and with a cooling fan -- that isn't much bigger than a single 5870. How the heck does all the heat get out?
No wonder they're hard to overclock.
I'd rather have (2) 5870's for $250 each. Getting another PC isn't *that* big of a deal for me, especially since I go Linux. So density per slot isn't a priority.
I guess it's like a strategy game or RPG -- If your main character is from the "Linux" race you can easily have multiple machines, but you can't overvolt. Everything has downsides and upsides.
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To add to my original post:
When you have Currency A *and* Currency B in circulation -- used by the same group of people -- you really need to add the total circulation of BOTH currencies together to get the total currency in circulation.
In other words, if Bitcoin changed its algorithm to 100 coins per block instead of 50, people wouldn't wonder why the USD/BTC price went down by 50% on the market.
But it's a bit more mysterious when another currency comes on the scene, and essentially does the same thing. Sure, the coins are worth 1/30th of a BTC, but there are still hundreds of thousands of them. And people are buying them, which takes away demand that would otherwise go to Bitcoin.
You can't just look at the number of Bitcoins in existence (divided by the amount of USD in the system) to get a value per BTC -- you have to include other *coin rip-offs as well if people are holding those.
There are only so many libertarians and geeks putting their money in ANY KIND OF *coin digital currency.
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In Texas it was 110 on Sunday, 107 on Monday, and today's supposed to be 103. We're on track to set a record this year for "the most days over 100". So I discovered mining in late May, on the cusp of the hottest summer on record. Sweet. |
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Yeah I'm thinking of RMA'ing mine too. I mean it works just fine and looks sexy as hell, but the mounting bracket is all kinds of bent up from improper packing.
Did you buy yours from NewEgg, or the other place (that threw in several misc. accessories for about $8 more in shipping) |
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Yes, there's the large spike earlier to be averaged against.
At any rate, here's what I'm going by:
Difficulty 1806098
Estimated 1766344 in 58 blks
Network total 11.546 Thash/s
Blocks/hour 5.36 / 672 s
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