Except Rangedriver.  His short term record is enviable. (Inside info, I assume.)  My long term record is good, but often early (which is roughly the same as wrong, from a trading point of view, but close enough to right from an investor's viewpoint).

I expect 0275-0293 to be support levels, and will buy in that range to recover xmr lost via offers above 0320, but I see no reason this bump doesn't take us to 0600 territory after a little consolidating breather.  Supply is just too tight at these levels, using the short-term thumb rule again.

No, I am compelled by observed facts to disagree.  This is a price correction. It has not finished yet.  The pattern is similar simply because the fundamental causes are similar:. Price is too low.

The next big opportunity comes when the fast money chickens precipitate a retrace.  As mentioned before my own plan is to sell my trading stake in the 115-120 USD range, and go increasingly full metal jacket Monero on progressive fib retrace levels.   Timing is a bitch, but it's pretty hard to lose  by progressively trading fib levels and being as patient as a nesting condor.  I use USD for level calculations, but moßtly use BTC as the trade complement, since I might sit on the short side for a while, I don't want to be in a depreciating asset during that time.

There is very little point in a lengthy refutation of Protocols of the Elders of Zion.


If you think XMR overpriced, then put all your capital into s horting it.

I was talking about 2018 because I don't think any DNM can build the kind of confidence that AB or SR1 had in 4 months.  I could be wrong: DHL seems to have all the confidence required, but they have not shown a willingness to open up the floodgates for a large flow of goods and services - AFAIK it is all invite-only.

To me the model prediction seems inescapable, and the only question is how long it takes for SEC to prosecute a few ETH ICOs in order too drive a lot of speculative capital out of BTC, BCH, ETH into real digital cash.

Either way, the money flows are coming.  Since I don't know when, I just stay all-in XMR.  We do know this:. When BTC reached thus liquidity level it drew attention from buy-siders.  Expect the same for XMR at this level.

DNMs volumes should approach 0.1% of the global black markets by the end of 2018, I.e. roughly 25bn$/an.  In mid-2013 SR1 was turning over about $1bn/an.  Since no major DNM can risk BTC, ZEC, or ETH in the future, the only coin with the liquidity to support DNMs will be XMR.  Since pq=mv, and pq and m are known (estimated) factors, that leaves v.  If the velocity of XMR is roughly the same as SR1 era BTC, then at the end of 2018 XMR would trade at roughly 2500 $us, averaging over any periods of excess volatility.  I prefer to assume that either half of the DNMs are honeypots using BTC or ZEC, or that the velocity of XMR is more than twice the velocity of BTC in the SR1 era, in which case $1000 would be a better estimate.

Rational discounting in a negative real interest rate environment isn't very...relevant; thus, the only discounting factor is risk of model error. 

According to my rule of thumb the near-term target is .0293 BTC, or 117 usd

Certainly not straight, although if you look at it on a decades-long logarithmic chart it may start to look close to a straight line .  As others have said before, reality is not only stranger than we actually imagine, but stranger than we are capable of imagining.  So too the exponent of Monero's rise.

The hard part is knowing when, not how far.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3935924-IRS-Chainalysis-Contract.html

Have you done estimated withholding for your ICO gains?  If not, I recommend holding some xmr for 12 months, so you can pay the penalty rate.  If your AGI is below 75k then the long-term capital gains rate is 0%.  

Please remember that if the price is too low, then a dramatic rise may be required in order to correct the market price.  We are currently experiencing a price correction, and the question remains open: is the correction going to the logical risk-adjusted discounted value of cash flow with infinite duration, or will it pause for a while before it continues to correct?

In the first case it would continue up for a couple of orders of magnitude.  But given the historical madness of crowds which has allowed XMR to remain undervaled for so long and to such a large degree, I rather expect the price to pause and stagnate somewhere between 100 and 200 until more information leaks to a larger pool of investors, of greater liquidity, causing the upward correction to resume.

One would think this should be obvious to anyone with a basic finance background, given the historical example of BTC.  Why does it not sink in to their thick skulls?  Well, FOMO will fix that eventually.

Optimism is meaningless.  The math does not lie.

It is not so twisted when the people in question are pushing Monero down.  Monero is mankind's last hope of freedom on this planet.  Of course in the end it is squeezing the shorts that gives market makers the best possible return per unit of investment risk, and helps insure that price discovery is honest, so from that viewpoint  the short interest is very beneficial to Monero.  Even if you  refrain from passing moral judgement, their loss is a gain for the cause, and hence similarly cause for celebration. 

for Monero held for 12= months or more, AFAICT, the long term capital gains tax applies.  If your AGI on 1040 is less than 75k, you pay 0% tax rate.  Over 75k you pay 10% on long term capital gains.   For Monero held in a Roth retirement account there is no income limit, 0% all the time.

12 months of holding is the critical difference between long-term and short-term capital gains.  The latter are taxed at your marginal (highest) regular income tax rate.

As long as you apply FIFO trading rules it may be trivial to keep all but the last draw down on an actively traded fund from being taxed at marginal rates.

I an not a lawyer or a tax professional.  You should consult your own.

Almost hit the nail on the head, but not quite.  It needs an economy, and DNMs are the critical bootstrap to a level of liquidity where the storage and transfer capacity corresponds to the needs of big money users (HNWIs, corps, and TLAs).  Right now DNMs are reeling and traffic is negligible.  But in less than 6 months there will be 20x the DNM throughput that we saw in SR1 , which took BTC to USD100, and perhaps 50% of that traffic will be denominated XMR, which will put the unit cost around $1000 by March - before the FOMO is factored in.

These are the last cheap coins, people.

This seems hopelessly naive to me given that at least two of the zcash core team are former Mossad sigint staff, and that both Zooko Wilcox and Michael Green have publically attested than they are capable of implementing back doors to support subpoenas. (Please note that alphabay was taken down exactly 5 days after they first implemented Zcash transactions.)

We also know that the corporation has implemented a 20% parasitic mine in zcash effectively seizing one-fifth of the supply today therefore I can see very little reason why they should be inhibited from seizing an infinite proportion of the supply at a time of their own choosing in the future.

The only scenario in which I can foresee zcash transactiins keeping up with Monero is one in which a large  group is forced to use the corporate coin.

It was difficult enough to made the prudent adjustment to the social contract required to ensure a adequate block reward in perpetuity when the size of the community of contributors was much smaller. Attempting to reverse that prudent action would both be imprudent and highly unlikely given the difficulties of quorum size that would exist today. Moreover the conception of the problem is entirely erroneous since the rate of growth is both less than that of gold supply and very likely on par with the rate of random loss.

The smooth evolution of the six-month development heartbeat that we have experienced to date is largely attributable to the fact that the changes being implemented at each step are so obviously beneficial and non-controversial. Any change in the tail emission now would be a gross disruption of the social contract and inevitably lead to the kind of hard-forking traumas that we see in less well-managed coins, such as ETH and BTC.

I perceive our new quote-unquote friend kwukduck to be a social saboteur, perhaps a foolish short speculator who has sold in size at what is likely to be the lowest price of all pending futurity.  I would enjoy watching him cover, preferably perforce.

Patience.  If you refuse to learn patience the easy way (self-discipline) then you will be forced to learn it the old-fashioned way (suffering).

Bchxbt has topped again.  All logic tells me that Eth is doomed for the foreseeable.  Are the next leading black markets going to use the free software world's meritocratic hard asset, or the Mossad's 20% corporate tax coin, the coin that took down alpha bay?

I don't know how long it will take the next legit DNM leader to emerge.  But I do know it will do 10x the traffic of SR1, and it will be using XMR.  That means XMR $1000 USD is less than a year away.  Possibly less than 6 months away, in a rationally discounting world (unlike this one.)

When people try to excite your emotions, they are seeking an advantage over you in the market place. Rely on facts and logic.  You will find a cool head wins over a hot heart most of the time.

I am feeling very....patient.   All of the factors for a level-up event are solidifying.  Multisig fully funtioning in HEAD could be the catalyst that unleashes all of those mounting forces, but the forces will continue to mount for a long while after that.

What forces?  Well, the rush of BTC back into exchanges, will lead to demand.  As BCH retraces and tops out headed for another leg down, XMR is a logical allocation fraction.  BTC transaction costs are still outrageous, and XMR remains far more economic, besides being fungible.

On a slightly longer term, the new leading DNMs will be Monero users.  SR1 drove BTC to $100, back in a day when DNM volumes we're a small fraction of what they are today.  Given the float problems and likely backdoors of ZEC, XMR dominance seems assured, and 4 digits can't be far behind.

Longer term, the war on cash is global and escalating.  The supply of non-inflationary low-income assets is constantly shrinking relative to the balance sheets of the banks (central, peripheral, and shadow alike), making XMR very appealing as a reserve asset.  Banking secrecy is almost completely gone now, and XMR is simply the only horse in that race, the others still fumbling at their gates while the race is half-way over.

There are many other factors which will play out on varying time scales, these are just some of the most obvious and largest.  Please add your own.

I would love to see an insider summary on the state of paybee.

https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2017-131

Methinks it is time to short ETH

Yo mama.

It is happening, people. Read /r/DarkNetMarkets.  With n/m multisig in place, bitcoin will become a barbarous relic, and Monero will be the world currency.

Zooko had best get his wheels turning on Tezos, because Vitalik just stole another 80 millions, and ZEC is history.

The world is about to wake up and smell the coffee that ha been brewing for the past 3 years.

I just do not understand how the mass of  people can be such dense, stiff-necked, blind sheep and yet not get slaughtered...oh, nevermind, that's coming too.

So Hansa market was a honeytrap.  Dream Market maybe too.  There is a huge multibillion dollar gap which DHL can not, will not fill.  Such a vacuum is truly anhorrent.  It will not stand.  I revise my estimates on XMR to 200 in October, 1000 in March, and 5000 before 2019.