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They've gotten a bunch of coins with the whole Loaded incident. Whenever they get a big stack you just gotta ask yourself, how are they going to use it?
Timing is key. Blackrock has an incentive to keep accumulating before they launch the ETF, prices are still too high, at these interest rates risk assets like BTC should be lower. They may just drop BTC's price now that's close to key fundamental floors.
They may also want to get these coins used in a future hardfork civil war, probably after they establish the ETF and want to take control away from the crypto people and put it into the hands of the establishment via "deplatforming" BTC by removing it from exchanges and only allowing "Blackrockcoin".
I can see some clusterfuck situation brewing again like we've seen before if you've been here for a minute. You just can predict these things after a while. Not sure exactly when, but something is coming.
If you are not up to date with Loaded's coins drama, there's a great video on Youtube about it, just look it up.
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Mi teoria a grandes rasgos es que la gente que estaba interesada en BTC en su mayor medida ya hizo el "ciclo de interes" y o gano dinero o salio escaldada. Hablo del mercado mas casual que se mueve por FOMO y no planea, ni hace estrategias ni nada. Ahora mismo con los tipos de interes tan altos, y ya fuera de escenarios pandemicos con la gente aburrida en casa donde muchos estaban pudiendo ahorrar, no creo que ese dinero vaya a ir a parar a activos de alto riesgo. Yo creo que algo de esto hay. Sin embargo, esto explicaría la baja del volumen de trading, pero no la gran pregunta: ¿a dónde fueron los BTC que antes estaban en los exchanges? Si fueron comprados por hodlers convencidos, esto puede ser bueno o malo también: - si son hodlers "ricos", que podrían aguantar un ciclo bajista más, difícilmente los moverán, lo cual tendría un efecto alcista. - pero creo que muchos hodlers (no conozco la proporción, pero estimo que podrían ser al menos 30% de los BTC que se encuentran "en manos de hodlers privados") son también hodlers "pobres", que pueden ser vulnerables a un posible pánico, si el BTC se acercara otra vez a los $20000 por ejemplo. Puede tener un efecto de "amplificación de movimientos a la baja". Yo creo que el % de manos fuertes se hace mas grande a medida que el % de dominancia de BTC aumenta, esa seria la metrica que yo tendria en cuenta. A menor % de dominancia: mas actividad en altcoins, que quiere decir que mas casuals estan metidos en el ajo. Tambien tener en cuenta el indice de busquedas en Google y visitas en canales de criptomonedas para poder mas o menos ver cuanta gente hay interesada en esto, a mayores ambos datos, mas manos debiles. Correlacionando esas 3 metricas, creo que es util para ver donde estamos. Yo creo que vamos a una recesion en el ultimo Q del año que viene si no a mediados y ahi vamos a ver caidas en el SP500 y si BTC sigue actuando como hasta ahora, se podria ir hacia abajo con aun mas velocidad. Ahi ya consideraria hacer DCA en BTC o entrar fuerte si hay una caida acelerada. |
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Mi teoria a grandes rasgos es que la gente que estaba interesada en BTC en su mayor medida ya hizo el "ciclo de interes" y o gano dinero o salio escaldada. Hablo del mercado mas casual que se mueve por FOMO y no planea, ni hace estrategias ni nada. Ahora mismo con los tipos de interes tan altos, y ya fuera de escenarios pandemicos con la gente aburrida en casa donde muchos estaban pudiendo ahorrar, no creo que ese dinero vaya a ir a parar a activos de alto riesgo.
Otra cosa sera lo que pasara una vez veamos un tope de tipos, donde siempre suele llegar una recesion, y unos meses despues cae el mercado. Veremos si ahi realmente el BTC es un oro alternativo o cae junto al SP500, y de ser asi se verian precios muy atractivos. Junto con los tipos bajos, podria darse un nuevo ciclo alcista. Creo que esto explicaria que muchos estan en renta fija esperando comprar mas barato.
Otra seccion del mercado serian los que nunca compraran BTC fuera de vehiculos regulados (ETFs). Una parte podria ser BlackRock y cia acaparando para cubrir una futura demanda.
En cualquier caso el BTC al ser divisible puede cubrir la demanda si es que esta crece a la vez que disminuye la oferta (BTC en exchanges), solo que el precio subira.
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Canada is no different from anywhere else in the developed world. Im not following much Emerging Markets these days since I don't hold any equity here, however, Canada is filled with cheap fiat duat massive QE period from the Covid pandemic when they printed a ton of money to save businesses from bankruptcy and from consumers themselves to be able to buy stuff as they were locked. This can has been kicked for a while but as interest rates are raised, you can bet that sooner or later recession will hit once all this debt gets updated to said interest rates. With good timing there is when you would short the market, or just wait in cash to buy in cheaper.
Will BTC perform in this environment along gold? who knows, personally im just looking forward to add up on an SP500 position as well as hopefully get in on overbought individual stocks like TLSA and NVDA which should crash the most given current PER ratios.
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Avatar and Personal text Updated Current post (including this one): 144 PS: to be clear, there is no minimum amount of posts? It says 20, but im not sure if that is to get the 25$ extra from wearing the avatar. There is a quote here that says 5 posts but it was deleted: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5419242.msg61231310#msg61231310Edit: I've just read a page ago there's no minimum. |
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Current number of post (Including this one): 143
Rank: Full Member
bech32 address: bc1qd5uuagcpv9zmdx2krzpd6vhth6pd058ax446ah
Merit earned in the last 120 days: 22
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<...>
Es uno de los problemas que siempre se ha tener en cuenta: si no quieres que el tendero pueda ver lo que tienes, tienes que hacer algún malabarismo previo como el que sugieres de mezclar (y aún así a ver qué ve …), siendo el aumento de la privacidad precisamente uno de sus objetivos máximos teóricos (luego el mal uso que puedan hacer otros es otra cosa). Me consta de gente que ha usado fondos en Bitrefill habiéndolos mezclado primero, con cero problemas a lo largo del tiempo. Siempre puede haber una primera vez, pero no he leído caso alguno. En todo caso, los montos usados no suelen ser tampoco tremendos, luego el riesgo es comedido. El uso en tienda física sería conceptualmente preferente, dado que quedas totalmente anónimo (salvo que, quizás, uses una tarjeta de fidelización en la tienda). Si compras en Amazon, no me consta qué datos se guardan, pero será más sencillo tirar de un hilo si hay un nombre vinculado (el de tu cuenta en el establecimiento) que si no. En Bitrefill por cierto puedes pagar también con BTC sobre Lightning Network (y otras monedas), quizás algo más a contemplar o investigar. Hola, que mixers recomiendas a dia de hoy? hace años que no uso mixers. Recuerdo Helix hace años que funcionaba muy bien a traves de Tor, con customizacion de como lo querias. Nunca llegue a usar Bitmixer, Chipmixer etc. LN lo tengo pendiente mirar. He leido que mejora la privacidad, y otros dicen lo contrario. Al final seria "para hacer la compra", darle un uso a BTCs que de otra forma estan ahi inutilizados, menos de un sueldo minimo al mes vamos.. es lo que hay, y como comentas, seria pagos fisicos por si acaso. Aunque es ridiculo pensar que por hacer compras por internet vas a tener problemas y al limitarte a pagos fisicos pierdes mucho rango de lo que puedes comprar y comodidad etc.. pero ganas algun % en privacidad supongo. No se si es una ventaja o una desventaja a veces el querer apurar al maximo con este tema. Es como quien ahorra toda la vida, cuando va a gastar, le resulta patologico gastar y no puede disfrutar del dinero. Me gustaria poder hacer compras online, pero a la vez empiezas a montarte peliculas sobre privacidad y terminas por no comprar nada. Al final no se hace uso del BTC. Hay gente que tiene redes de confianza y intercambia por cash, pero esto casi que me parece mas arriesgado que comprar con Bitrefill en Amazon. |
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Of course there are tainted coins. Try spending known Silk Road coins for instance.
There are a lot of paper money seized by the government. Aren't they in circulation? Or would you deny accepting paper money just because once they have been used by a terrorist or drug dealer? That's the same with Bitcoin. If you and everyone would deny accepting paper money just because the money have been used in drug dealing, paper money wouldn't exist. The same theory is getting a position in case of BTC, they are calling tainted BTC so at some point, people stop using BTC lol. I found a reply from LoyceV which I really liked pretty much, I used to think same as you about BTC but it's not really the case. There are no "bad" Bitcoins. Saying certain Bitcoins are "tainted" is an attack on Bitcoin, and it only exists if people believe it. Stop saying it, stop believing it.
I disagree with this analogy. When you pay with cash, the cashier just puts it in a box, they aren't put into an eternal immutable blockchain with all the details there to see, which would only require your dox attached to that transaction for a government to try to see what's up. Also everyone uses cash. If you have never had BTC in KYC exchanges, the gov does not have you as a "bitcoin person" on their records, so you don't want to be found using BTC to pay for stuff, specially since like I said before, there is a public blockchain that's immutable, they may start adding up amounts and wonder where it's coming from. And if nothing happens who knows in X years you end up in trouble. This is the problem with BTC, its not fungible. As far as I know, promoting on sig campaigns is legal since it's just marketing, but not sure when the promotion is a mixer. I wonder how people are using their money there. From what I've seen they do nothing with it but hoard it. As far as P2P, I don't trust people in real life, you never know who you are meeting with, and Bisq doesn't solve anything as far as fiat transactions, you are risking it the moment you do a bank wire.
This depends on the level of investigation that may take place with you. If you was a "good citizen" and prepared your tax file, it is unusual for the authorities to conduct a deep analysis of the chain to find out where your money sources are. Also, payments from signature campaigns are less than $1,2000 annually, which is a small amount for anyone who wants to do an illegal activity. Personally, I advise you to convert your bitcoin into cash and buy gift cards from the nearest store, or stop using Bitcoin until there is a clear legal framework for it (you will not have to pay taxes, and the law does not require a retroactive effect.) But the gov hates BTC, and as far as payments from sig campaigns, im not sure about the legal implications of promoting a mixer. The activity is definitely legal, since it's marketing, advertisement of a service, however im not sure if they'll like you promote mixers. As a best practice I would avoid any problems, and by that I mean not showing up with these coins on either KYC exchanges or building using services that go along with your dox on each payment. Also if you have other sources of income, it all adds up for taxes. And also, if in the future BTC goes to 100k+ and you have coins you haven't touched for years and you want to buy a house or whatever, you are going to need to show up with these coins in a bank etc, you will raise alarms and get audited, in this situation, you would need to disclose your coin history and they would see you sent it to Bitrefill to pay for stuff. I guess if you stick to small purchases you could claim you didn't need to have that money taxed prior usage for payments, but with BTC I just know these guys hate you by default for owning any of it. |
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mix your coins properly before you send the money (which mixer?) There are plenty of mixers available in the market. Go to the service announcement board and find one. Would recommend using Yomix which I'm using at my sig, not a vouch of course. DYOR. 1) When you mix coins, you may get tainted coins It's false. I was also in the wrong sense but thanks to LoyceV, after a huge long discussion, I'm now convinced that there's no tainted bitcoin like there's no tainted fiat. You never know whether the fiat you are using is from a terrorist or not. What you know is the fiat is accepted by your govt and that's it. Of course there are tainted coins. Try spending known Silk Road coins for instance. Also this: https://cointelegraph.com/news/binance-returns-frozen-btc-after-user-promises-not-to-use-coinjoinMixing doesn't really solve anything since you get doxed to said coins when you do purchases. Honestly this sucks and sounded better on paper. How do you guys promoting mixer coins spend your BTC? When the taxman asks for origin of the money I guess they wouldn't enjoy you promoted a mixing service, specially if you made money from ChipMixer which was closed, so not sure about that. I would be paranoid for instance, to spend ChipMixer related coins with Bitrefill or even put them on an exchange. And if nothing happens who knows in X years you end up in trouble. This is the problem with BTC, its not fungible. As far as I know, promoting on sig campaigns is legal since it's just marketing, but not sure when the promotion is a mixer. I wonder how people are using their money there. From what I've seen they do nothing with it but hoard it. As far as P2P, I don't trust people in real life, you never know who you are meeting with, and Bisq doesn't solve anything as far as fiat transactions, you are risking it the moment you do a bank wire. |
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Could someone explain what are some best practices for maximum privacy?
If you were to want to use it on Amazon, what would be right steps?
Im assuming you want to create a Bitrefill account with Tor, use a protonmail account created with Tor, and mix your coins properly before you send the money (which mixer?)
The problems I see:
1) When you mix coins, you may get tainted coins
2) No matter how many steps you take to keep your privacy, it all ends up in a doxed situation (your Amazon account, which contains your full name, address, and contact info) so what's the point? Im sure Amazon keeps that data. If you ever had a financial review by a government, or in the future the government became increasingly tyrannical about cryptos and he was to force either Bitrefill or companies that accept to have their giftcards filled through Bitrefill, to disclose this information, the government would know that you have or have had Bitcoin, this is a problem.
An alternative would be to use this only for physical redeeming codes or something like that. I've heard this can be done. But again, how do we know the physical shop we go into will not ask any information when you use such codes? Which would link the usage of the code with your dox. And if you mix your coins and end up with tainted coins, or someone that paid you had tainted coins whether they knew or not, you will be the one that gets doxed while using said tainted coins and you don't want that. This is why im not sure if using Bitrefill is a good idea.
Could someone elaborate on this?
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Me gustaria saber si alguien tiene expriencia en Bitrefill y cual es la mejor forma de usarlo anonimamente, o lo maximo posible.
Habria que mixear las coins antes de rellenar los fondos de la giftcard que vayas a utilizar antes no? Por ejemplo, te pagan de tu participacion en una camapaña de firmas, y no quieres pagar directamente con la direccion desde donde has recibido los pagos. Pues toca mixear. Pero como lo haces para que no acabes pagando con coins que esten tainteadas? Por que imagina que tienes esa mala suerte, vas y pagas con coins que vienen de un sitio dudoso, y queda registrado junto con tus datos.
Si bien, si lo he entendido bien, se puede crear una cuenta Bitrefill con Tor, usando protonmail creado en Tor, y pagando con tu wallet mediante Tor despues de haber mezclado el monto a usar, si luego vas y usas esa giftcard en Amazon en tu cuenta a tu nombre, eso queda registrado en algun sitio. Aunque en Amazon no especifique de que manera has recargado los datos, imagino que ellos internamente, tienen la informacion de que esa giftcard se relleno desde una cuenta de Bitrefill, cierto? Tienen tambien los datos de la transaccion? (tu direccion BTC usada etc), o solo tienen que Bitrefill fue usado para rellenar esa giftcard? En que caso podria ser problematico?
La otra opcion seria, giftcard para uso fisico en tienda, de tal forma que no quede registrado nada a tu nombre. Por que imagino que al ir fisicamente a una tienda con una giftcard, no se registrada no? o depende del establecimiento? como podemos saber esto?
Me gustaria entender bien el funcionamiento de todo esto, tenerlo bien claro antes de nada. Seria para gastos mensuales. Que cifras son las mejores en las que moverse?
Un saludo
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By reducing the positions held in stocks and bonds: Starting with a 60-40 equity-bond portfolio, which is produced with a risk aversion of 𝛾 = 1.50, the optimal BTC allocation is a large 84.9%! The remainder of the portfolio, 15.1% is split 60-40 between equities and bonds. that linked article had many exampled positions with many different allocation amounts.. picking just the highest("EXTREME") mentioned is not what blackrock concludes.. their actual conclusion is a 3% position of btc allocation not 84.9% also reading through other commercial banks desires to hoard bitcoin via the BIS settlement network agreements. they too want more then 2% but less than 5% ability to hoard BTC and if you ever look at any investment institution none of them have high % hoarding of one asset. they all spread their eggs across many baskets with a sub 5% hoarding per 'egg' The question is how is this going to affect the price? 2-5% on these entities portfolios I assume is quite a lot of money dumped into BTC. The problem is, if (when) the recession hits, im not sure if it's a good idea to own BTC, so far it has just acted as SP500 on steroids, so a high risk asset (this is what BTC is considered still by most) would crash bigly, and these banks have customers and these customers wouldn't be happy. |
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Found an interesting article today coming from Spain, it says that someone contracted a debt with another private party, it was a simple two-guy debt setting without a legal agreement other than Whatsapp messages. "I need X amount of money, I will pay you back". The creditor accepted and so sent 0.58 BTC to this guy which eventually refused to pay back. What's interesting is that for the first time ever the judge said the debt plus interest must be paid back in Bitcoin, not the fiat currency (EUR in Spain). Due counterparty risk, he will have to pay more since by the time the agreement happened the price of Bitcoin was cheaper, specifically, 14.000€ at current rate, 5.900€ back then. It's one of those things, you may take advantage of the fluctuating price or you may have to pay more. At the end of the day this is positive for BTC since it is being considered as a viable way to settle debts between private parties by authorities, which always translates into better regulation and in general being looked like less of a dodgy guy when you liquidate it into a bank deposit. Source: https://es.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/juzgado-en-espana-ordena-devolucion-de-prestamo-en-bitcoin-no-en-euros-2401286not really a precedent its much the same as "this guy stole my lawnmower" judge: "give him back his lawnmower" not all compensations/debts/thefts/frauds or orders to honour loans/agreements/returns need to be honoured in fiat but still. atleast it shows that spanish judges accept bitcoin as a item of value that needs to be returned as is in the same condition as it was taken(plus extra for inconvenience caused). rather than some judges just dismissing cases thinking its two kids fighting over monopoly money Yeah but this is a monetary settlement with an agreed interest rate, a lawnmower being stolen would return you the lawnmower plus a compensation for any damages caused and a fee for the theft. Here Bitcoin was respected as a valid way of money with his own market value and indeed not forced to liquidate the debt in fiat as if it was monopoley money in the eyes of the state, so overall is a positive. It is mentioned that at least in Spain this hasn't happened before. |
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Found an interesting article today coming from Spain, it says that someone contracted a debt with another private party, it was a simple two-guy debt setting without a legal agreement other than Whatsapp messages. "I need X amount of money, I will pay you back". The creditor accepted and so sent 0.58 BTC to this guy which eventually refused to pay back. What's interesting is that for the first time ever the judge said the debt plus interest must be paid back in Bitcoin, not the fiat currency (EUR in Spain). Due counterparty risk, he will have to pay more since by the time the agreement happened the price of Bitcoin was cheaper, specifically, 14.000€ at current rate, 5.900€ back then. It's one of those things, you may take advantage of the fluctuating price or you may have to pay more. At the end of the day this is positive for BTC since it is being considered as a viable way to settle debts between private parties by authorities, which always translates into better regulation and in general being looked like less of a dodgy guy when you liquidate it into a bank deposit. Source: https://es.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/juzgado-en-espana-ordena-devolucion-de-prestamo-en-bitcoin-no-en-euros-2401286 |
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This is what happens when Ethereumtards take over Bitcoin development. If Ethereum had a role that was to keep Bitcoin away from all the nonsense, since all the nonsense would be hosted on the so called Ethereum blockchain, now that isn't enough for them so they have to ruin Bitcoin by bringing the nonsense into the actual Bitcoin blockchain. Bitcoin Core should just block all this stuff, most nodes are Bitcoin Core nodes. Im not sure if Taproot was even needed. The more stuff you add the more window of opportunity for various blockchain spam use cases would show up, it's one of those things. Bitcoin already did what it had to do before any of that was implemented. As far as miners being happy because it raises fees, well, segwit lowered fees and it was rolled in.
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Since big exchanges adopted SegWit and Roger Ver and Jihan Wu et al. stopped dicking around with spam attacks, the blocks have been rolling pretty lightly, so there's no real demand for LN usage at all. Who would bother unless you are doing some super niche usage case where you require tiny transactions back and forth when you can just settle onchain for tiny fees. I suspect there will be no real 2nd layer demands until western nations start banning physical cash and people are forced to use Bitcoin to keep any chances of having financial privacy. Then maybe blocks become legit full and there's a transition into LN organically.
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To edit the header, you could use any graphical hex editor (you need to find one which doesn't load entire /dev/sdX though).
right, it's vital to know accurately which byte the header ends so that you know which byte the encrypted volume begins. using a graphical hex editor could work, e.g. perhaps there is a byte sequence at the end of the header that's always the same. if not, knowing exactly the length of a key slot, exactly how many key slots your header has, and the exact length of the data before them is very important.
an extra trick I thought of: I expect that the header for a disk partition is smaller than a basic disk encryption header. Instead of replacing the encryption header entirely with random data, why not: - find out the size of a partition header
- subtract it from the size of your encryption header
- overwrite the start of the disk encryption header with a partition
- fill the remaining space with random data (only as far as the last byte of the encryption header! use the number you found in step 2)
then, instead of having a "suspicious" random data disk, you have a disk that an OS filesystem window would recognize when you plug it in. Sure the rest of the data is your encrypted volume, but it "looks" otherwise like a normal disk that's got nothing on it. you: "really? nothing on it? damn, must've taken the wrong disk with me, my bad" or you: "yeah, that's my disk to put the holiday photos on, would you like to see my photos of the church organs of Europe?"  that sort of thing Someone with forensic tools would just be able to see a relevant chunk of random data irrespective of how your headers look. Sure having a reasonable looking header increases your chances of plausible deniability but I don't see how tricks anyone that has been instructed in this field. Also playing around with the header is quite dangerous if you screw up in the process. Id rather never put myself on a situation where someone gets to my encrypted data to begin with. So far I have concluded that you just cannot cross any borders with encrypted stuff. |
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Well the robbers now know he not only owns bitcoin but he self-custodies them (not on some exchange that could be transfered) so that's making yourself a target to get attacked again eventually. Another huge streamer called xQc said he self-custodies his BTC. These people shouldn't even disclose any of that if they were smart. I hope they have invested in tons of private security.
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Not surprised due the rapid rise of interest rates by the FED, and im sure they saw such things coming eventually too. If SVB didn't jump on the "crypto this crypto that" bandwagon im assuming they would be doing better, same as Silvergate which tried to become some sort of shitcoin exchange, they are going to pay the crypto bandwagon tax and that's part of the capitulation before we can talk about the next ATH. Im actually surprised stuff like crypto.com are still dumping mad millions all over mainstream sports events.
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Any blockspace that isn't used to prove how X BTC moved from A to B is a waste of space and thus an attack on Bitcoin by the various iterations of peoples that have tried to turn Bitcoin into some sort of Ethereum clusterfuck.
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